The New York Times engaged in coverage of its own favorable poll for the Democratic candidate for a U.S. Senate race in Texas that was eyebrow-raising in its detail and intensity: “Times/Siena Poll Finds Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas Senate Race.”
The ins and outs of the numbers were lovingly detailed by Shane Goldmacher, national political correspondent, along with polling editor Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker.
The Democratic Party has a serious chance to win a Senate seat in Texas for the first time in a generation, as James Talarico, a Democratic state legislator, begins the summer locked in a tied race with Ken Paxton, the Republican state attorney general weighed down by past scandals, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
Frustrations over President Trump’s handling of the economy and concerns about Mr. Paxton’s character have put the Senate seat in play in one of the nation’s Republican strongholds.
Mr. Paxton, 63, swept past indictment, impeachment and allegations of infidelity to thump an incumbent Republican senator who vastly outspent him in a primary this year. Now, as he faces Mr. Talarico, a 37-year-old who is training to be a minister, Mr. Paxton finds himself in a tight race that is marked by striking demographic divides.
Overall, Mr. Talarico and Mr. Paxton each garnered 47 percent of the vote in the poll.
There were several signs of weakness for Mr. Paxton in the poll.
This story had several signs of the paper’s “weakness” in the knees for anyone challenging what the Times considers the dangerously extreme ultra-conservatives who run Texas (no Democrat has won a statewide race since 1994, though that never stopped the paper from pumping up various failed Democratic candidates).
Some Times headlines from 2021 alone demonstrate the labeling bias:
“Emboldened Republicans at the Helm, Texas Steers Hard Right”
“For Texas Governor, Hard Right Turn Followed a Careful Rise”
“Texas Lawmakers, After Shift To Right, Plan More of Same”
“Can Texas Turn Further Right? Top 2 Republicans Say It Can”
“Texas Governor Pushes State Further to the Right On Voting Rights and Race”
As for Democratic hopes for overthrowing this right-wing establishment, Exhibit A was the apparently charming former congressman Beto O’Rourke, who lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2020 but retained the paper’s enthusiastic support and glowing coverage when he challenged (and again lost) the gubernatorial race to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022.
Back to the poll:
Still, the poll shows the extent of the challenge ahead of Mr. Talarico.
His enormous lead among independent voters — 27 percentage points — was only good enough to force the race into a virtual tie in heavily Republican Texas. While Mr. Talarico is ahead in Texas’s big urban centers, Mr. Paxton is crushing him two-to-one everywhere else.
Melissa Daniels, 34, identifies as politically independent and is supporting Mr. Talarico.
“I think he’s focusing on the common issues that the people have,” she said. “We want to feel safe. We want to be able to afford groceries, and, you know, those issues that we care about.”
Ms. Daniels, an attorney living in Arlington, drew a contrast with Mr. Paxton’s priorities. “Paxton’s focused on, you know, I.V.F. and who’s using what bathroom,” she said. “Just stuff that isn’t really affecting day to day lives of Americans.”
The sheer closeness of the race is an ominous sign for Republicans, who have not lost a statewide contest in Texas since the 1990s.
Talarico’s nutty Biblical interpretations were briefly, gently sketched.
Republicans have aggressively circulated clips of Mr. Talarico’s more left-wing commentary, including his provocative suggestions that “God is nonbinary” or that there are six biological sexes, and tagged him “TalaFreako.” But the surveys show the extremist frame has yet to take root with most voters. Still, more voters saw Mr. Paxton as “too extreme” (50 percent) than Mr. Talarico (43 percent).
