On Wednesday night’s Last Word, MSNBC’s Alex Wagner introduced the broadcast by complaining that despite President Obama “riding the political wave of political success” “the Democratic Party just got a brutal reality check” in the 2015 elections.
The MSNBC host and liberal Washington Post columnist EJ Dionne repeatedly tried to downplay the bad night for Democrats and chalked it up to low voter turnout among key Democratic demographic groups rather than a rejection of the party's liberal policies.
After Wagner detailed how “down the ballot, Democrats are suffering significant losses” she brought on Dionne and asked him if the party’s losses were merely just a result of the normal political cycle rather than actual problems within the Democratic Party:
And I wonder how much you think with that is due to what your paper, the Washington Post called the notion of a political thermostat, that when there is a Democrat in the White House the electorate goes a little bit more conservative and vice versa if there's a Republican in the White House.
The Washington Post columnist immediately tried to minimize the Republican gains in 2015 and blamed it on low voter turnout among Democrats:
I think at the heart of it is the nature of the Democratic constituency versus the nature of the Republican constituency. Democrats are younger, they are more African-American and Latino. Republicans are older, predominantly white. And the Democratic groups vote in much larger numbers in presidential elections than in off-year or off-off year elections. And so all those gains that we hear about are gains that the Republicans have made in off-year elections in 2010 and 2014.
While Dionne did admit that the 2015 results “doesn't mean it's not a big problem for Democrats” he insisted that people shouldn’t read too much in the major gains made by Republicans, including winning the governorship in Kentucky:
I think we're acting as if the outsiderism in the Republican Party and in Republican parts of the country and in Kentucky is basically Republican, even though they've elected Republican governors, is happening across the whole country. Trump and Carson are getting about half of the 40% of people who are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. That's 20% of the country. It’s a big deal. It means something, but I think we should not overgeneralize off what's happening in particular inside the Republican Party.
See relevant transcript below.
MSNBC’s The Last Word with Lawrence O’Donnell
November 4, 2015
ALEX WAGNER: The Democratic Party just got a brutal reality check. President Obama may be riding the political wave of political success in his seventh year in office, but down the ballot, Democrats are suffering significant losses. Since 2008, Democrats have lost over 900 state legislature seats, 12 governorships, 69 house seats and 13 Senate seats. Republicans control 70% of state legislatures, more than 60% of governorships and 55% of attorneys general and secretaries of state.
The problem for the left was made especially clear last night, going against both polls and expectations, Republican newcomer Matt Bevin beat Democrat Jack Conway in the gubernatorial race, 53% to 44%. Just over 30% of voters turned out to cast a ballot. And by supporting anti-gay marriage county clerk Kim Davis and vowing to dismantle the state’s healthcare system, Matt Bevin took 106 out of Kentucky’s 120 counties. Democrat Jack Conway won just 14 of them. Bevin's conservative message played especially well in the state's rural counties where in some cases he lead with a margin of as much as 60% or more. Bevin, who has never held political office before, also rode a wave of insurgent excitement.
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WAGNER: EJ, to that end, I mean, everybody is asking just what happened, right? The Republican establishment is asking what just happened and Democrats in large part, it feels like we're having a moment where Democrats are sort of realizing what's truly been happening in off-year elections and down ballot elections. Republicans are trouncing Democrats at the state legislature level and in terms of governorships. And I wonder how much you think with that is due to what your paper, the Washington Post called the notion of a political thermostat, that when there is a Democrat in the White House the electorate goes a little bit more conservative and vice versa if there's a Republican in the White House.
EJ DIONNE: Well that happens sometimes but it doesn’t always happen that way. I think at the heart of it is the nature of the Democratic constituency versus the nature of the Republican constituency. Democrats are younger, they are more African-American and Latino. Republicans are older, predominantly white. And the Democratic groups vote in much larger numbers in presidential elections than in off-year or off-off year elections. And so all those gains that we hear about are gains that the Republicans have made in off-year elections in 2010 and 2014. Now that doesn't mean it's not a big problem for Democrats. They have lost all these seats. They lost control over redistricting.
But it's a very particular problem they got to solve. And on the outsider thing, I think we're acting as if the outsiderism in the Republican Party and in Republican parts of the country and in Kentucky is basically Republican, even though they've elected Republican governors, is happening across the whole country. Trump and Carson are getting about half of the 40% of people who are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. That's 20% of the country. It’s a big deal. It means something, but I think we should not overgeneralize off what's happening in particular inside the Republican Party.
