After the Justice Department recently released two reports documenting crime trends in the U.S., the liberal media seized on the less accurate of the two to portray crime as being down in spite of violent crime rates (primarily in Democrat-run parts of the country) actually being up compared to five years earlier. And aggravated assault levels appear higher than they've been in decades.
Most journalists used their misleading spin to portray Donald Trump as wrong to complain about high crime even though the former President quoted numbers from actual government reports documenting surges in crime from within the past several years.
As the story broke on MSNBC on Monday morning, NBC reporter Ken Dilanian claimed crime is "back down to around 2019 levels, which was historic lows..." As he appeared again an hour later, he complained: "That should be uncontroversial, but it's not because the Republicans and others are pushing the narrative that this data is wrong -- that crime is somehow up when it's down." He lamented: "It's a good news story -- it's too bad that not everybody's prepared to accept it."
Host Andrea Mitchell made sure to undermine Trump's claims: "...new numbers out today showing overall crime rates are down across the country despite what Donald Trump is saying on the campaign trail. ... Donald Trump is repeatedly accusing the Biden-Harris administration of letting crime run rampant, especially crime from undocumented immigrants, despite all indications to the contrary."
Afternoon host Katy Tur made cracks about how she survived her most recent trip to the store, and cued up Dilanian to claim Trump was wrong in August when he cited a 43 percent increase in violent crime:
KATY TUR: And what do they mean for Donald Trump's 43 percent numbers?
KEN DILANIAN: Well, that's just flatly wrong when Donald Trump said that. The latest numbers from the FBI which come from cities by the way -- the FBI doesn't make these numbers up -- show that violent crime overall declined by a rate of three percent in 2023, and then murder declined 11.6 percent, and that's the largest single-year drop on record.
After admitting there had been a "huge spike in violent crime" during the pandemic, Dilanian returned to claiming crime is "historically low."
But, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey, which tries to estimate the large amount of unreported crime in addition to reported crime, there was about a 43 percent increase in violent crime from 2020 to 2022, according to the most recent edition available when the former President made the statement in August.
The 2023 survey (released September 12) shows violent crime starting to drop, but still higher than it was before the pandemic. Robberies and aggravated assaults were both still up since 2019. Even after dropping somewhat, aggravated assaults in 2023 were still 22 percent higher than in 2019.
(Gallup has made similar findings that more Americans report being victims of crime.)
A few hours later, MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace similarly dismissed Trump.
Several CNN hosts pushed similar spin, but CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller admitted that murders and aggravated assaults are still up from five years earlier.
And PBS reporter Lisa Desjardins quoted Attorney General Merrick Garland declaring crime rates are "almost their lowest level in 50 years."
But the FBI report released on September 23 has been called out for failing to document the majority of crimes that are unreported, and for having a history of significant errors. And the CDC routinely reports higher homicide numbers than the FBI.
Last spring after Trump made an issue of elevated crime levels both nationwide and in New York, MSNBC and CNN hosts similarly tried to portray crime as down.
MSNBC's Joe Scarborough claimed crime was higher when Trump was President, and accused Republicans of lying about the subject. CNN's John King hinted that Fox News was to blame for Americans believing crime is increasing.
Transcripts follow:
MSNBC's Jose Diaz-Balart Reports
September 23, 2024
11:17 a.m. Eastern
KEN DILANIAN, NBC NEWS JUSTICE AND INTELLIGENCE CORRESPONDENT: This report is entitled "Crime in the Nation." It's the FBI's best estimate of what happened last year in terms of crime, and it shows a significant decrease. Violent crime decreased an estimated three percent last year, according to the FBI. Murder and manslaughter came down an estimated 11.6 percent. That's the biggest drop in the last 20 years. Aggravated assault down 2.8 percent. And here's what's also important to hear about this, Jose, because there's been a lot of criticism of FBI crime data. This data covered 94 percent of the U.S. population. And while it's true that not all crimes are reported, all murders are counted.
And what this shows, big picture -- because this is the second year in a row that the FBI has documented a decline in violent crime -- it shows that after a big spike during the pandemic, violent crime is back down to around 2019 levels, which was historic lows really when you compare it to the 1990s. And, of course, this contradicts what Donald Trump and many of his Republican allies have been saying. They've been out on the campaign trail saying that violent crime is increasing dramatically in cities around the country. It's just not what the numbers show, Jose.
(...)
MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports
September 23, 2024
12:36 p.m.
ANDREA MITCHELL: And next, new numbers out today showing overall crime rates are down across the country despite what Donald Trump is saying on the campaign trail.
(commercial break)
12:40 p.m.
MITCHELL: Donald Trump is repeatedly accusing the Biden-Harris administration of letting crime run rampant, especially crime from undocumented immigrants, despite all indications to the contrary. Today the FBI released statistics showing a three percent decline in violent crime in 2023. That suggests a steady decline since the uptick that occurred during the pandemic. Those numbers for the FBI's annual report were compiled from law enforcement agencies across the country using data covering 94 percent of the population. Separately, the FBI has repeatedly reported that crime from immigrant groups is actually lower than the national average. ... So what do the numbers really mean? What are you seeing in these numbers?
KEN DILANIAN: Most striking thing, Andrea, is that they say that murder declined 11.6 percent last year, and that's the largest single-year decline on record. And it's happening, of course, after murder had the largest spike on record in 2020 during the pandemic. So what we're seeing, big picture, there was a huge spike in volent crime during the pandemic. It's been gradually going down, and it's pretty much back down to pre-pandemic levels. That should be uncontroversial, but it's not because the Republicans and others are pushing the narrative that this data is wrong -- that crime is somehow up when it's down.
And there was a year -- 2021 -- when some of this FBI data was missing several big cities, but that's no longer true. As you said, it covers 94 percent of the population, every city of over a million, and it clearly shows that violent crime was down last year. And we have other data from this year that shows that that trend is continuing in the first half of 2024 with violent crime and murder. It's a good news story -- it's too bad that not everybody's prepared to accept it, Andrea.
(...)
CNN News Central
September 23, 2024
3:37 p.m. Eastern
JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: If you zoom back, though, and you get the larger story, which is: What's the five-year trend? Well, take a look at our other graphic, which is you see that over the time, say, from the five-year analysis, murder is actually up almost 10 percent. Aggravated assaults up almost seven percent -- 6.5 percent. So you see that we are not where we were before -- pre-pandemic, pre-criminal justice reform laws in many states, pre the defund the police movement -- all of which had different effects on police agencies across the country.
(...)
MSNBC's Katy Tur Reports
September 23, 2024
3:53 p.m.
DONALD TRUMP: We're here today to talk about how we are going to stop the Kamala crime wave that is going on at levels that nobody has ever seen before. (editing jump) Since comrade Kamala Harris took office, her administration's crime statistics show she's presided over a 43 percent increase in violent crime. These are all government numbers -- 43 percent increase in violent crime --
KATY TUR: Donald Trump is running on claims that the country is a violent dystopia -- a place where, as he says, you can't even go buy a loaf of bread without being mugged, shot or raped. But do the actual numbers match his rhetoric? Joining us now, NBC News justice and intelligence correspondent Ken Dilanian. I bought two loaves of bread yesterday, Ken, and I'm happy to report I did not get mugged, shot or raped when I was doing it. What do the crime numbers -- the FBI numbers say in regards to what's happening in this country? And what do they mean for Donald Trump's 43 percent numbers?
KEN DILANIAN: Well, that's just flatly wrong when Donald Trump said that. The latest numbers from the FBI which come from cities by the way -- the FBI doesn't make these numbers up -- show that violent crime overall declined by a rate of three percent in 2023, and then murder declined 11.6 percent, and that's the largest single-year drop on record. Now, of course, the context here, Katy, is this is coming after a huge spike in violent crime during the pandemic, and really what's happening is it's settling back to pre-pandemic levels, which were historically low.
(...)
MSNBC's Deadline: White House
September 23, 2024
4:55 p.m.
DONALD TRUMP: They've got to stop crime. You go out for a loaf of bread today, and you end up getting mugged, killed, shot. (editing jump) Crime is absolutely out of control. (editing jump) Yeah, they just released, as you saw, numbers saying that crime is up 44 percent.
NICOLLE WALLACE: No they didn't. That is Trump's version of the triple threat, right? Lying, slurring and making things up in his imagination -- he's never bought a loaf of bread. That was him doing all those things about crime over the weekend, but here on Earth One, there is new data -- statistics -- from the FBI run by someone Donald Trump appointed to the post. It confirms a clear trajectory across the country of massively declining violent crime statistics in America with a more than 10 percent drop in murder between 2022 and 2023. That's the largest year over year decline in crime reported by the FBI in 20 years. And if you're thinking, "Well, what if the DOJ has different numbers than the numbers Trump's talking about?" the answer is no. The DOJ's preliminary data also from 88 cities also shows that violent crime has continued to decline considerably this year.
(...)
CNN's Anderson Cooper 360
September 25, 2024
8:16 p.m.
ANDERSON COOPER: As you know, actually, violent crime is down, you know. Car robberies, you know, shoplifting has been up -- violent crime is down. And, as you know, also, migrants generally commit -- do not commit crimes at the same level. They commit crimes at a lower level than the U.S. population.
(...)
PBS NewsHour
September 27, 2024
7:35 p.m.
GEOFF BENNETT: It might be a resonant political issue, but do a fact check because crime rates in this country have actually come down.
LISA DESJARDINS: Right. We hear this again, and again, especially from Trump and Republicans. There were new figures out just today -- or just this week rather -- from the FBI. Today Attorney General Merrick Garland said that crime rates have gone down to almost their lowest level in 50 years.
(...)
MSNBC's Alex Wagner Tonight
March 20, 2024
9:33 a.m. Eastern
ALI VELSHI: If you were to randomly flip on Fox News, there are pretty decent odds you will find yourself watching a segment about how Biden's America is rampant with crime. "America is in a crime crisis." And it's not just Fox -- Trump is also obsessed with crime, but a very specific kind of crime.
DONALD TRUMP CLIP #1: It's a new kind of crime -- I don't know if you've heard this -- but I came up with this one -- "migrant crime." There's crime, there's violent crime, there's migrant crime. We have a new category of crime -- it's called "migrant crime."
TRUMP CLIP #2: The United States is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime. It's the new form of vicious violation to our country. It's migrant crime. We call it "Biden migrant crime."
VELSHI: There's a problem with that because what Trump and Fox are pushing lack facts. Across the country, the crime rate is down, and it's continuing to drop. We got new FBI crime data yesterday that shows that, no matter how you slice it, America is getting safer. Property crime is down, violent crime is down, the murder rate saw the sharpest annual decline ever recorded. And that supposed wave of migrant crime that Trump is obsessed with, Fox News ran 400 segments on it in the first 10 weeks of this year. But the facts are not on Trump or Fox's side on that either. Statistically speaking, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born citizens are, but you don't hear that on Fox News.
Now, none of this is to say that many communities across the country aren't still grappling with very real incidents of crime or that we should turn away from efforts to reduce crime. But the narrative being pushed here that crime is on a precipitous rise under Biden's Democratic administration is simply false. What facts -- Fox News lacks in facts, it makes up, though, in vibes.
DANA PERINO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Democrats will say, "Well, but crime is down. It's not how people feel."
LAURA INGRAHAM, FOX NEWS HOST: We all know communities don't feel safer.
MICHELE TAFOYA, FORMER NFL SIDELINE REPORTER (on Fox News Channel): You do see crime on the rise, and I, you know, President Biden held that whole presser about how crime is down in America. I don't know. Again, it's -- do you believe your lying eyes? Or do you believe the President of the United States?
He just at the White House a few moments ago was just touting a drop in crime statistics. That is not what we're all feeling and seeing.
VELSHI: Don't believe your lying eyes. The reality is that crime in America started spiking in 2020 during the pandemic when Donald Trump was President. But Fox News is taking advantage of a gap between perception and reality here. Polling shows us that almost every year for the past few decades, Americans have felt like the country was getting more dangerous even when it wasn't. And those feelings now have a partisan split to them. Last year, Gallup found that 92 percent of Republicans believe crime rose from the year before compared to 58 percent of Democrats. I wonder why.
(...)
MSNBC's All In with Chris Hayes
March 21, 2024
8:44 p.m. Eastern
CHRIS HAYES: If you happen to be a frequent viewer of this program, you might be familiar with this chart. The picture paints about as clear as it gets. There was a record spike in violent crime under Donald Trump in 2020 -- it shoots up to the left there. There's been a consistent decline since President Joe Biden took office. The thing about crime data, it takes a long time to aggregate. It's actually gotten worse over time. The chart is based on preliminary information because it takes a while for the full picture to come into focus. These stats trickle out before the FBI drops its final report for the year before, but there's the thing. The Bureau just released some more data -- new data from 2023 -- indicating that, yes, there was a massive drop in crime last year. According to one crime data analyst who spoke to NBC News, when all is said and done, 2023, quote, "We will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded." It is indisputable the country is getting both safer and more prosperous in the last four years under President Biden. It doesn't seem like that message is getting through, at least not for now. I think it's true for a lot of reasons -- generally related to media consumption.
Local news has a number of mostly financial incentives to hyperfixate on crime, and they do. It's especially true for violent crime, often in a way that's disproportionate to actual statistics. And, of course, right-wing cable news has an obvious political incentive to portray life in President Biden's America as negatively as possible. (montage of 10 different people on Fox News Channel stating that "crime is out of control") I think the media focus is one reason why this message is not getting through, but some of the responsibility also falls on the Biden administration itself which, until recently, hasn't done a great job of articulating the real tangible successes on this front. Which is why it is very interesting to me when earlier this week, the Biden-Harris White House released this statement touting the new data from the FBI and taking credit for making Americans safer. Quote, "Thanks to the American Rescue Plan, which every Republican in Congress voted against, we made the largest ever federal investment at fighting and preventing crime at any time in our history. This record investment in crime reduction is delivering results."
The Biden White House isn't just touting the decline in crime, but they're actually taking credit. They're pointing to legislation investments as the cause. It's a pretty darn good message in an election year.
(...)
MSNBC's Jose Diaz Balart Reports
March 28, 2024
11:58 a.m. Eastern
JOSE DIAZ BALART: Rehema, the former President has been highlighting violent crime in New York City. How does data show -- what does data show about crime in the city?
REHEMA ELLIS: Well, there is a perception that there is a rise in crime because of some high-profile crimes, if you will. But, according to the NYPD, major crimes are down something like 2.3 percent in the city, and this is compared to this time last year. So perception is one thing, and NYPD says the reality is something else.
(...)
MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports
March 28, 2024
12:07 p.m. Eastern
ANDREA MITCHELL: And, Phil, the politics of this election is now turning to Long Island where there's a funeral for NYPD officer Jonathan Diller on Long Island -- Massapequa, Long island. He was killed after approaching an illegally parked car this week. President Biden just spoke with Mayor Adams about the tragedy today. Donald Trump's spokesman says he was invited by the officer's family to the funeral, but the political context is Mr. Trump's claim that crime is rampant in New York City when the statistics show it's actually down. Every incident, every case is horrible, of course. This murder is horrible, of a police officer. But, speaking to the larger issue of whether crime is a terrible problem in New York City.
PHILIP RUCKER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Yeah, Andrea. We saw this in the midterm elections last year actually where a lot of Republicans, including in New York state, were running on crime with some limited success. It was not necessarily a winning issue for Republicans then, but it has been part of Trump's political brand. It's something he has talked about a lot. He's especially tried to link crime to the immigration issue and border security. And I think him going to this funeral today in New York is an attempt by him to try to draw attention to the killing of this police officer and try to blame that on Biden even, as you say, crime is down in New York City. It's down in a lot of cities. It's not actually down in Washington, D.C., here, but it is down in a lot of cities around the country. But, nonetheless, it is a concern that we see registering in polling, especially among suburban voters and some of those voters that Trump is really going to be looking to motivate in the general election. And I think we'll probably continue to see him talk about crime and try to make the state of crime seem a lot worse than the statistics might actually show for purposes of motivating his supporters and persuadable voters out there.
(...)
MSNBC's Katy Tur Reports
March 28, 2024
3:09 p.m. Eastern
KATY TUR: So what about crime? I mean, obviously, former President Trump is trying to use that to his advantage today. Is that going to be a big issue across the country. Violent crime is down, and New York City is obviously a very blue place and will remain a blue place. It's going to take a lot for this city to turn red, but the feeling that New Yorkers have is one that's not so safe, and that feeling when you have news coverage can start to seep into the rest of the country.
DAVE WASSERMAN, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: That's right. And what former President Trump does well is utilize these specific incidents whether it is Jonathan Diller or Laken Riley to paint a broader picture of what's happening in the country. It's up to Democrats and President Biden to combat that by pointing to statistics and pointing to a decline in violent crime and a rise in wages. What Democrats desperately need is a forceful communicator on this front. And, although President Biden was combative and aggressive and gave a campaign speech in the State of the Union. These are isolated set pieces, and we're not -- we're not really hearing the President drive this narrative forcefully as President Obama or Clinton might have done in the '90s or in the last decade.
(...)
CNN's The Situation Room
March 28, 2024
5:32 p.m.
JOHN KING: Because crime and immigration are central to the argument that Trump is going to make that you want to change -- you want to change Presidents because you're mad about the border, and you're mad about crime. Now, if you look at crime statistics nationally, most violent crimes are down. If you look at the New York Police Department statistics, most violent crimes are down. But property crimes are up -- motor vehicle thefts are up -- and we've had many crimes including an officer killed in the line of duty that are shocking, and they get a lot of attention on television. And so this is one place where there is a disconnect between the crime statistics and the crime perceptions among voters. And it could be a key issue in the suburbs -- a key issue with swing voters -- a key issue in the place Trump needs to win -- so it's an issue he wants to highlight. Again, statistics tell you that crime is in better shape now than a few years back. However, some of these crimes are so shocking, Wolf, that they stir people. They stir anxiety, and Trump wants to turn that into votes.
(...)
MSNBC's Morning Joe
March 29, 2024
6:30 a.m.
JOE SCARBOROUGH: There's an NBC article that I just now posted on my threads account, and it just shows the facts. I know the facts don't matter to Donald Trump, but crime rates keep dropping. Crime, in fact, the rate is lower now than when Donald Trump was in office -- lower than it was in 2020, even slightly lower than it was in Trump's best year as it pertains to crime in 2019. Murder rates in the last year over the big cities that he's constantly harping on, down 20 percent. Rapes down 16 percent. You can go down the list on and on. The most serious crimes way down. And, again, the overall crime rate for 2022 -- the last year recorded -- the crime rates lower again than Donald Trump's best year in 2019. Certainly a lot lower than 2020. So he'll say what he says, Republicans will keep lying, other news outlets will keep lying about it, and people will whip themselves into a frenzy and say, "What about crime?" And you can show them the facts.
It's just like -- seriously, it's just like I can show people, you know, maybe they're UNC fans where they don't want to know that Alabama won last night. I think it was 79-77, but Alabama beat UNC. And they go, "No, no, no, it's not --no, that's not the truth. It's the fact. It's just a fact. They may not like it, but it's a fact. And that's how Trump extremists have gotten, and it's how cable news networks run. It's their business model to lie about the facts -- to twist and distort reality for for viewers day in, day out, night in, night out.
And when you talk about crime, it's not as low as I want it to be. It's not as low as you want it to be. We've both said we think the bail issue in New York City is a joke. We think cops aren't allowed to do their jobs enough. We think that's a joke. That said, if you look at the numbers, Donald Trump is lying when he says crime rates are way up. They're not. They're down. They're lower than they were when he was President.
WILLIE GEIST: Yeah, that's just a fact. And violent crime, in particular, all the ones you just laid out are down double digits year over year
(...)
CNN News Central
March 29, 2024
7:08 a.m.
JOHN KING: The crime debate is interesting because, overall, violent crime is down, but personal property crime is up, vehicle thefts are up. And it gets a lot of attention on local news and on a certain network that is clearly trying to help the former President. They play it up more than -- maybe out of context a bit.
SARA SIDNER: That's fair enough.
(...)
MSNBC'S Chris Jansing Reports
March 29, 2024
CHRIS JANSING: Less than an hour away on Long Island, Donald Trump was in full attack mode using the funeral of a police officer as a platform to go after Biden. He criticized the lack of law and order -- a message he repeated this morning on Fox News.
DONALD TRUMP (on Fox News): It's getting worse and worse for police because we're not -- we're not taking care of them. We're not -- we're not -- we're not allowing them to do their job properly. (editing jump) ... because this country is going to hell. Our country is not respected anymore. We're really -- I say it in my rallies and my speeches, we're a nation in decline.
JANSING: Well, the facts are that crime in New York City is about where it was a decade ago when it was often referred to as America's safest big city. Violent crime has actually declined all across the country. Rates of rape, robbery and aggravated assault are down even though the polls show Americans believe the crime rate is going up.
