Multiple CNN journalists proved to the world that they were living in a liberal political silo Tuesday night, as they could not give a reason to explain why Georgia independent voters would swing 20 points from 2020 to now back former President Trump.
CNN political director David Chalian described the independent voter swing as “the story of these exit polls.” He noted that that voting bloc make up a larger percentage this go around than they did in 2020 when President Biden won, but now the shoe was on the other foot in the state:
They make up 31 percent of the electorate. That is a slightly larger share than what they made up four years ago. Trump is winning them by 11 points in these early exit poll result. 54 percent to 30 percent.
Jake, four years ago, Joe Biden won independent voters in Georgia, when he won that state, by nine points. So, we have seen in a swing of 20 points towards Trump in terms of the margin from nine-point advantage four years ago with independents for Biden, to now an 11-point advantage with independents for Trump in Georgia.
“Wow … that independent swing is wild,” exclaimed host Jake tapper as he looked to Dana Bash and Chris Wallace for an explanation.
Bash didn’t try to explain why, just repeated the numbers and spoke about how significant they were:
It’s a huge swing and I just want to underscore what David said. It is a bigger percentage of the vote share. Last time around, it was 28 percent independents; it made up 28 percent of the Georgia vote and now it is 31 -- excuse me, 30 percent. And – excuse me, yeah, I was right. 31 percent. And it is a total flip. It is a complete flip. Donald Trump is doing so much better with Independence than Kamala Harris. And Joe Biden kind of ran away with independents four years ago and of course he won the state.
For his part, Wallace actually admitted he couldn’t figure it out:
Yeah, I'm trying to figure out why. You know, what the reason is that would be this dramatic flip of double digits in independents. And I am – something you don't often hear in election coverage – it’s something of a loss as to how you explain that independents would have gone so much more for Trump this time than they did for Biden last time.
Several minutes later, Wallace came back to say he had spoken with a “smart Republican pollster” who had to spell it out to him:
It's the same problem that democracies, incumbents, and democracies around [the world are facing right now]. Inflation, they don't like the way things are going. They want somebody to fix it. And that’s Donald Trump's basic pitch at the end.
Something so simple, yet CNN had to phone in outside help to figure it out.
The transcript is below. Click "expand" to read:
CNN’s Election Night in America
November 5, 2024
7:09:49 p.m. Eastern(…)
DAVID CHALIAN: This will be the story of these exit polls in Georgia: independent voters. They make up 31 percent of the electorate. That is a slightly larger share than what they made up four years ago. Trump is winning them by 11 points in these early exit poll result. 54 percent to 30 percent.
Jake, four years ago, Joe Biden won independent voters in Georgia, when he won that state, by nine points. So, we have seen in a swing of 20 points towards Trump in terms of the margin from nine-point advantage four years ago with independents for Biden, to now an 11-point advantage with independents for Trump in Georgia. Jake.
JAKE TAPPER: Wow. David Chalian.
And Dana, that is really significant. We see some incremental changes here and there when it comes to a young voters, she is doing slowly better. Non-college whites, he is doing slightly better. But that independent swing is wild.
DANA BASH: It’s a huge swing and I just want to underscore what David said. It is a bigger percentage of the vote share. Last time around, it was 28 percent independents; it made up 28 percent of the Georgia vote and now it is 31 -- excuse me, 30 percent. And – excuse me, yeah, I was right. 31 percent. And it is a total flip. It is a complete flip. Donald Trump is doing so much better with Independence than Kamala Harris. And Joe Biden kind of ran away with independents four years ago and of course he won the state.
CHRIS WALLACE: Yeah, I'm trying to figure out why. You know, what the reason is that would be this dramatic flip of double digits in independents. And I am – something you don't often hear in election coverage – it’s something of a loss as to how you explain that independents would have gone so much more for Trump this time than they did for Biden last time.
(…)
