Morning Joe had an f-word for President Trump today. No, not that F-word. Another one: "felony." As you'll see in the mash-up, nine times in the show's opening segment Joe Scarborough, Nick Confessore and Michael Steele collectively accused President Trump of committing a "felony" in connection with alleged hush money payments.
Like a group of pre-teen boys getting kicks from using curse words, the Morning Joe gang blithely accused the sitting President of the United States of a felony. But a consideration of the facts makes the likelihood of a successful felony prosecution seem remote.
Prosecutors would have to prove that Michael Cohen made hush money payments to Stormy Daniels and/or Karen McDougal, and that those payments constituted illegal campaign contributions. But taking Cohen's own evidence from checks and transfers, it would appear that Trump reimbursed Cohen, so that Cohen was serving as a conduit, not a contributor. Moreover, those reimbursements came from Trump's personal funds, not from campaign funds.
Prosecutors would also need to prove that hush money payments were made for campaign purposes. There are other obvious motivations for a married man not to have allegations of affairs come to light. As this Washington Post column details, the case of the prosecution of John Edwards in relevant circumstances shows how difficult it is to prove that payments to alleged mistresses were done for campaign purposes. There, heiress Bunny Mellon made huge gifts in the nature of hush money payments to the Democrat's mistress and mother of his child, Rielle Hunter. Edwards was never convicted after his lawyers argued that the purpose of the payments was to conceal the affair from the candidate's cancer-stricken wife Elizabeth. Edwards was acquitted on one count, and the prosecution decided not to retry the case after the jury deadlocked on other charges and the judge declared a mistrial.
Here, the prosecution's case would be even more difficult, since in the Edwards case there was no question that the funds came from outside sources, whereas in Trump's case, Cohen's own evidence was that the President reimbursed him, and that Cohen merely served as a go-between.
So while the Morning Joe guys might enjoy their titillating speculation, the odds that President Trump would ever be convicted of a felony on the facts of this case seem slim indeed.
