Republican and Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin easily won the Kentucky governor's race last night, to the surprise of New York Times reporter Sheryl Gay Stolberg and her headline writers, who wondered if Bevin was a "loose cannon" who would risk the GOP "losing an opportunity" to pick up a seat.
On Wednesday morning Stolberg and cowriter Alan Blinder reported under the headline "Maverick Puts G.O.P. in Control in Kentucky" that Bevin had trumped Democrat Jack Conway by 9 points.
Matt Bevin, a Republican political novice, wealthy Louisville businessman and Tea Party favorite, was elected Kentucky’s next governor on Tuesday and swept fellow Republicans into statewide office with him. The stunning victory heralds a new era in a state where Democrats have held the governor’s mansion for all but four of the last 44 years.
In beating his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway, by almost nine percentage points, Mr. Bevin, 48, shocked people in his own party, who believed that the climate in Kentucky was ripe for a Republican but feared that Mr. Bevin, a charismatic conservative with a go-it-alone style, was too far out of the mainstream and too inexperienced to win.
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Heading into Election Day, Republicans fretted that Mr. Bevin was frittering away an opportunity. But Bill Stone, a former chairman of the Republican Party in Jefferson County, which includes Louisville, said many analysts had underestimated “how reviled” Mr. Obama and the Democrats are in Kentucky.
Stolberg and the Times apparently underestimated that as well, and how Democratic unpopularity might help Bevin. That was demonstrated in her two pre-Election Day stories from Kentucky, including this online report: "G.O.P. Fears Losing an Opportunity in Kentucky Governor’s Race." Stolberg's story wasn't as strongly worded as the headline, but did lean toward the Democrat as the likely winner, given that Bevin was an "unpredictable conservative...outside the mainstream."
The Kentucky race pits Attorney General Jack Conway, a Democrat, against Matt Bevin, the Republican nominee, a wealthy Louisville businessman, Tea Party favorite and political outsider who last year waged an unsuccessful primary challenge to Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader. Analysts give Mr. Conway, 46, a lawyer who has spent nearly his entire adult life in politics, a slight edge over Mr. Bevin, 48, a charismatic but unpredictable conservative viewed by many in his own party as outside the mainstream.
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Analysts say much will depend on turnout. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Kentucky, but if Mr. Bevin -- a staunch opponent of same-sex marriage -- can drive enough Christian conservatives to the polls, it could help him eke out a victory.
In Saturday's paper, Stolberg and her headline writer both dismissed Bevin in "G.O.P. Eyes Kentucky Governorship, but Candidate Is Making the Party Sweat." Stolberg pondered if Bevin was a "loose cannon capable of alienating voters from both parties."
As Democratic governors have become an endangered species across the South, Kentucky, where Republicans have held the governor’s mansion for just four of the past 44 years, has been a conspicuous exception. This was the year Republicans thought that would change.
Then they picked Matt Bevin as their nominee.
Now, nervous Republicans are trying to decide whether their candidate is a charismatic conservative who captures the anti-establishment instincts of the electorate, or a loose cannon capable of alienating voters from both parties in a state that is trending Republican.
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“All things being equal, it should be a Republican year,” said Trey Grayson, a Republican and a former secretary of state of Kentucky, who now heads the nonpartisan Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce and is neutral in the race. “But the Republicans nominated this outsider who is not well known, and maybe there is this fear that they nominated somebody who is too far outside the mainstream.”
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On the campaign trail, Mr. Bevin has also made some missteps. In vowing to test Medicaid recipients for illegal drug use, for instance, he confused the health insurance program for the poor with Medicare, which covers older Americans. He has also tangled with the Kentucky political press corps, prompting some in both parties to raise questions about his temperament and whether he would cause too big an upheaval in the State Capitol.
Stolberg amusingly treated the ordinary term "welfare state" as some strange conservative attempt at a buzz word.
A former Army captain and father of nine (including four children adopted from Ethiopia) who grew wealthy founding and investing in various companies, Mr. Bevin has an up-from-the-bootstraps philosophy and disdain for what he calls “the welfare state.” It is a view that stems, he says, from growing up poor in rural New Hampshire, the son of a wood mill worker and a homemaker who raised six children in an old farmhouse with no central heat.
