On NBC’s Sunday Today, host Willie Geist channeled the worst fears of Democrats in 2020, that it would be a repeat of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 campaign: “After 2016, Democrats are suspicious of Joe Biden’s polling lead and Republicans see a reason for hope. So how much should you trust the numbers?” In the report that followed minutes later, the network attempted to reassure the left that Joe Biden would defeat President Trump.
Introducing the segment, Geist parroted the DNC narrative urging anti-Trump voters to not trust polls showing Biden ahead: “While campaigning this week in Philadelphia for Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama warned Biden supporters not to become complacent with public polls that show the former Vice President leading President Trump.”
Geist pointed to the trauma Democrats suffered last time: “Democrats carry with them the scars of 2016, when many of them thought right up through election night Hillary Clinton was a sure thing against a celebrity businessman and reality TV host.”
With sad piano music playing in the background, correspondent Geoff Bennett lamented:
This time four years ago, Hillary Clinton held a five-point national lead over Donald Trump. We know how that turned out, doomsday for Democrats. This time around, it’s Joe Biden who’s ahead in the polls. A creeping sense of deja vu for Democrats.
Trying to boost leftist spirits, he touted: “This time, there’s a difference. For starters, Biden’s lead is bigger than Clinton’s was, edging out President Trump nationally and in nearly every battleground state.” Bennett worked to offer more comfort to worried Democrats: “Add to that Mr. Trump is an incumbent, no longer an outsider, now facing the worst polling position for a president seeking re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992.”
The reporter also cheered “Biden crushing the competition in fundraising.” and “some Republican senators started to distance themselves from President Trump.” However, Bennett admitted that there were some signs of optimism for Republicans: “...the GOP narrowing the gap with Democrats in voter registrations in three critical states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.”
Following the taped report, Geist remarked to Bennett: “As you know, the paranoia among Democrats about polls is palpable right now.”
Only time will tell who wins the election, but the fact that NBC felt it necessary to give Democrats a pep talk one week out certainly suggests the contest might be a lot closer than the left-wing media would like.
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Here is a full transcript of the October 25 segment:
8:18 AM ET
WILLIE GEIST: While campaigning this week in Philadelphia for Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama warned Biden supporters not to become complacent with public polls that show the former Vice President leading President Trump. Democrats carry with them the scars of 2016, when many of them thought right up through election night Hillary Clinton was a sure thing against a celebrity businessman and reality TV host. So how much faith should voters put in the polls and other key indicators this time around? NBC’s Geoff Bennett has our Sunday Focus.
[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: Polling Lessons Learned; Will Election Indicators Accurately Predict Who Will Win Presidency?]
GEOFF BENNETT: This time four years ago, Hillary Clinton held a five-point national lead over Donald Trump. We know how that turned out, doomsday for Democrats. This time around, it’s Joe Biden who’s ahead in the polls. A creeping sense of deja vu for Democrats. This time, there’s a difference. For starters, Biden’s lead is bigger than Clinton’s was, edging out President Trump nationally and in nearly every battleground state.
JOE BIDEN: I never take anything for granted, so the polls show this is a close race, but with having a steady lead.
BENNETT: Add to that Mr. Trump is an incumbent, no longer an outsider, now facing the worst polling position for a president seeking re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992.
DONALD TRUMP: Well, I watch polls, but the polls are fake, just like the reporting. I think we’re winning. I think we’re winning big.
BENNETT: Polling expert Dave Wassermann says polls aren’t meant to provide perfect predictions.
DAVE WASSERMANN: Polls are like a GPS that can get you into the right neighborhood, but not necessarily to the exact address. Polls did a good job of telling us that Democrats were going to win the House back in 2018. And they also did a reasonable job of illuminating the weaknesses for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
BENNETT: Beyond polling data, there are other signs that can be read as indications of who will win. Democrats are pointing to enthusiasm in the final stretch of the race, with Biden crushing the competition in fundraising. Biden’s campaign and affiliated committees raising a record $383 million in September. Compared to nearly $248 million for team Trump.
On the flipside, Republicans are pointing to what they see as a sign of potential promise – the GOP narrowing the gap with Democrats in voter registrations in three critical states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.
TRUMP: It’s great to be back in my home state, Florida.
BENNETT: Republicans hoping that heavy turnout on Election Day will help propel the President to a second term no matter what the polls show.
Beyond the numbers, the best indication of who’s winning in politics is often who is standing by their candidate. And recently, some Republican senators started to distance themselves from President Trump. Like Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, heard on a conference call with constituents.
SEN. BEN SASSE [R-NE]: The United States now regularly sells out our allies under his leadership, the way he treats women, spends like a drunken sailor. He mocks evangelicals behind close doors. His family has treated the presidency like a business opportunity. He’s flirted with white supremacists.
BENNETT: The President hitting back.
TRUMP: But now we have this guy Sasse, who wants to make a statement. Little Ben. Little Ben Sasse. The Republicans have to stick together better.
BENNETT: But for now, both candidates, their parties, and their supporters, are left reading the tea leaves.
GEIST: And Geoff joins me now live. Geoff, good morning, good to see you. As you know, the paranoia among Democrats about polls is palpable right now. So what did pollsters learn from the experience of 2016? Because as you point out in the piece, the national polls in 2016 were about right.
BENNETT: You’re right about that. And in 2016, many pollsters, especially at the state level, didn’t adjust their samples to account for a voter’s education level. And that was especially the case, Willie, in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which Clinton lost. And as we later learned, Donald Trump won an overwhelming number of white voters without a college education, whereas white voters with four-year degrees broke for Hillary Clinton.
But again, polls should not be mistaken for crystal balls. They are snapshots in time. That doesn’t mean they serve no purpose, because with enough snapshots, you can gather a clearer picture of how this race is shaping up with just nine days to go. Willie?
GEIST: Yes, we only have nine days left before we can ignore the polls and look at the actual vote. Fascinating piece. Geoff Bennett, thanks so much, good to see you.
