On Monday's Morning Joe, MSNBC co-host Joe Scarborough proclaimed that "the only reason" that Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives is because North Carolina Republicans "rigged" the state's congressional districts to take three seats from Democrats. The MSNBC host did not mention that there are plenty of states (California, for example) where Republicans are substantially short-changed in the number of districts they can win compared to the party's overall performance in the state.
As Scarborough was making an argument that, because the overall popular vote in the elections was close, pundits should not go overboard in predicting how much trouble Democrats are in, the MSNBC host brought up Republicans picking up three House seats in North Carolina after the districts were redrawn by the Republican legislature this year, twice claiming that they had "rigged" the districts:
And the only reason Democrats are not in charge of the United States House of Representatives and Hakeem Jeffries is not Speaker of the House is because North Carolina legislators rigged the process so badly that they took away three Democratic seats there in a rigged redistricting attempt that actually held up.
After court-drawn plans were used in the 2022 elections, the North Carolina State Supreme Court allowed the legislature to change the districts again to be used beginning in 2024. MSNBC regular Willie Geist then elaborated that, although Republicans won 220 seats, three of the Republican seats are likely to be vacant for several months, with two accepting appointments by President-elect Donald Trump, making the margin very close.
Geist eventually read a Tweet by The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman who observed that North Carolina redistricting probably put Republicans over the top for a House majority:
That small majority may also be due in part because of the North Carolina Supreme Court. As Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report notes, "When Republicans won a majority on the court in 2022, they had the power to redraw three Democratic seats into the GOP's hands, which may have effectively killed Democrats' chances at winning the House this cycle."
In spite of Scarborough's suggestion that Republicans did something underhanded by drawing districts to gain three seats in North Carolina, it was not mentioned that there are plenty of examples of Republicans being short-changed in other states such that it all balances out. In California, for example, even though the state's 52 districts were drawn by a nonpartisan commission to prevent gerrymandering, Republicans are being short-changed by a whopping 11 seats.
Even though Trump won 38.3 percent of the vote in the state this year, which would work out proportionately to 20 out of 52 districts, there will likely only be nine districts that Republicans will hold. (And only seven California districts were Republican-leaning enough to vote for Trump in 2020.)
There's also New York, where Republicans will hold seven out of 26 seats when 11 would be proportionate; Illinois where the GOP will hold three out of 17 when seven would be proportionate; New Jersey where there will be three Republican seats out of 12 when five or six would be more appropriate; and Massachusetts, where Democrats have held all the state's congressional districts (currently nine) since the 1990s.
Transcript follows:
MSNBC's Morning Joe
December 3, 2024
6:16 a.m. Eastern
JOE SCARBOROUGH: Like we said repeatedly going up to the election, this race is tight. Now, I can see, if this was like an LBJ-style blowout in '64 or a Nixon blowout in '72 or a Reagan blowout in '84, but this was one of the closest elections ever, especially if you look at the outcome in the House and the outcome of the Senate.
And the only reason Democrats are not in charge of the United States House of Representatives and Hakeem Jeffries is not Speaker of the House is because North Carolina legislators rigged the process so badly that they took away three Democratic seats there in a rigged redistricting attempt that actually held up. So, again, here we are one month since the 2024 election, Willie, and only one House seat that remains uncalled this morning but is Democratic -- makes it look like they're in a dead tie. You know what they call this in Europe? A unity government because they're basically tied. So all these people saying that this is the end of the world for the Democratic party? I think they may be over-analyzing this just a bit.
WILLIE GEIST: Yeah, a three-vote majority in the Senate for Republicans and an even narrower majority at this moment in the House. And, as you said, Joe, those swing state -- all seven of which went to Donald Trump, and there are some very troubling signs inside the vote for Democrats that they're already looking at and need to adjust to to change, but let's remember he won by a point and a half within the margin of error of all of the polling, as we said all along. He won by a couple million votes. He's under a majority -- he's at 49.9 percent this morning -- doesn't even have 50 percent.
So you can throw out terms like "landslide" -- which his campaign and transition team likes to use. He does have a mandate in the sense of Republicans are fully behind him. But the idea that he's going to steamroll through anything he wants -- he is pushing those boundaries right now. Let's be clear to see how far Republicans will go. But he just doesn't have the votes to do it all on his own terms.
So let's explain what Joe was saying. One House seat remains uncalled still this morning four weeks after election day. In California's 13th congressional district, Republican Congressman John Duarte is trailing his Democratic challenger by more than 200 votes with 99 percent of the vote in. Should his Democratic challenger oust him, House Speaker Mike Johnson will likely be dealing with a one-seat majority for those first 100 days of Congress. That's because two House members are likely to serve in the incoming Trump administration, and former Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz resigned from office last month, which will leave those seats empty until special elections are held. That small majority may also be due in part because of the North Carolina Supreme Court. As Dave Wasserman of the The Cook Political Report notes, "When Republicans won a majority on the court in 2022, they had the power to redraw three Democratic seats into the GOP's hands, which may have effectively killed Democrats' chances at winning the House this cycle."
