PolitiFact and Factcheck.org are both part of Facebook’s fact-checking program that rates and suppresses online content, but what is Facebook to do when the two have a disagreement? A Wednesday article from PolitiFact rates a claim about the cost of Thanksgiving from White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre “mostly true,” while Factcheck.org accused both her and the RNC of partisan cherry-picking.
The specific claim from Jean-Pierre is “Because wages are rising, this Thanksgiving dinner is the fourth-cheapest ever as a percentage of average earnings."
At PolitiFact, Louis Jacobson notes that ever since 1986 the American Farm Bureau Federation “has tracked the typical cost of a basket of Thanksgiving staples, including a 16-pound turkey, pumpkin pie mix, milk, a carrots-and-celery tray, rolls, pie crusts, green peas, fresh cranberries, whipping cream, sweet potatoes and cubed stuffing” and “since 2018, the group has calculated costs for both this ‘classic’ dinner and an updated version that adds a 4-pound boneless ham, russet potatoes and green beans.”
Jacobson also writes:
In the long view — looking only at the nominal cost and not adjusting for inflation or income — prices have been rising. Although the basic basket cost $28.74 in 1986, it now costs $61.17. As Jean-Pierre noted, that’s down from $64.05 for the classic meal in 2022. The cost of the more expansive meal basket increased by $3.45 from 2022 to 2023; Jean-Pierre did not mention ham, potatoes or green beans in her briefing.”
As for the cost as it relates to wages, “That calculation [by Prof. Jeremy Horpedahl] shows that, over the long term, Thanksgiving dinner is taking a smaller bite out of median wages today than it used to. That’s because wages have risen faster than Thanksgiving dinner prices have.”
Ultimately, Jacobson concurs, although he notes that 2019, the last pre-pandemic Thanksgiving, was marginally lower and “Technically, 2023 is tied for the fourth-lowest cost, not fourth-lowest on its own. Also, the calculation looked at median earnings (the middle of the data set) rather than average earnings (total earnings divided by the number of all earners); economists generally prefer median figures.”
This check included, the White House’s chief spinner has been fact-checked only four times, twice receiving a “mostly true” rating and twice receiving a “false” label.
Meanwhile, over at Factcheck.org, Lori Robertson noted Republicans also made a Thanksgiving claim using the same source:
On Monday, the RNC posted an item on its website about the ‘Thanksgiving Price Shock,’ lamenting that the ‘price of a traditional Thanksgiving meal has surged by 25 percent since 2019.’ The next day, the White House issued a press release boasting that ‘Prices Are Down.’ Citing the same source as the RNC — the American Farm Bureau Federation, a nonprofit advocacy group — President Joe Biden’s administration said ‘the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner fell this year, and it’s cheaper than last year to buy favorites like turkey, stuffing, pie crusts, and whipping cream.”
On Jean-Pierre’s claim, Robertson cited the same AFBF numbers Jacobson did, but added ‘“Despite the year-over-year relief, the cost is still 25% higher compared to 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.’ (The price hike is 30% compared with 2020, AFBF’s figures show.) Neither the White House nor the RNC mentioned the part of the report that was favorable to the other side. It’s a classic example of how political rhetoric relies on the selective use of statistics and not telling the whole story.”
Importantly, wages have not raised 25 percent since 2019.
Factcheck.org does not issue ratings like PolitiFact’s truth-o-meter or the Washington Post’s Pinocchio scale, but if they did, they would probably not give Jean-Pierre a “mostly true” on the grounds that Jean-Pierre was cherry-picking. Disagreements between fact-checking outlets only adds to the evidence that shows they do not speak with the voice of God.
