On Friday, MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle talked to CNBC contributor Dan Nathan about how the booming economy may factor into the 2020 presidential race. Without any substantiation, Nathan wildly speculated that there could be another “global financial crisis” which would provide something “Dems can run on” in the fall.
Nathan, a longtime Democratic Party donor and principal at the investment consulting group RiskReversal Advisors, began by arguing that the nation’s historically low unemployment was actually a bad thing: “...the labor market is really tight, and economically, in an election year, that could pose a really big problem when you think about it here because we’re just not seeing the sort of economic growth that you might expect at this stage of the recovery over the last ten years.”
He then started to imagine an even more dire economic picture:
And so, if companies are having a hard time finding skilled workers, that means there’s going to be wage pressure which could weigh on profit margins. And at this stage of the game, with valuations where they are, with a stock market at all-time highs, you could see that as a sort of sign at top that profit margins start declining.
So all of those three things pose real issues for this administration in an election year because if you did have some sort of head wind to economic growth, it’s already facing coronavirus right now, and then really the head winds of the trade war, you have a really difficult situation.
Ruhle skeptically weighed in: “But do you have a difficult situation?...Look at the stock market. Look at corporate America....as far as the winning economy that the President needs from now until November, do you really see that changing?”
Nathan assured her: “Well, I’ll give you two examples. 2008, at this time, nobody thought we would have a global financial crisis right on our shores.” Ruhle was suddenly converted: “Oh, good point.” Nathan giddily added: “And that’s the thing that really sunk John McCain’s candidacy then.”
Eager to further bolster his wishful thinking, Nathan noted: “Think about 2018, you know what happened in Q4 2018? The stock market fell 20%. You know what also happened? The Dems took back the House in that period.”
He wrapped up his slanted analysis with this proclamation:
Nobody can tell you what’s going to happen, you know, in October or November of this year, but they all pose risk for this administration because the stock market at all-time highs is backward looking, it’s not forward looking. And so, if the stock market were to tumble this year, if we don’t get near the 3% GDP growth that this administration has been talking about for years, these are all things that Dems can run on and they pose a problem.
The media have become so desperate to see Democrats win the 2020 election that anchors like Ruhle are bringing on pundits who are openly rooting for a devastating economic collapse.
Here is a transcript of the February 21 segment:
9:40 AM ET
STEPHANIE RUHLE: The President’s chief of staff Mick Mulvaney just made a surprising admission about immigration. According to The Washington Post, Mulvaney told a crowd that the United States desperately needs more legal immigrants in order for the economy to keep growing. He made those remarks during a private gathering in England Wednesday night. The post obtained an audio recording of comments, where he said this: “We are desperate, desperate for more people. We are running out of people to fuel the economic growth that we have had in our nation over the last four years. We need more immigrants.”
Joining me now, my friend Dan Nathan principal at RiskReversal Advisors and a CNBC contributor. Here’s the thing, Dan, this administration is very hard lined about immigration. Are you surprised to hear Mick Mulvaney admit this?
DAN NATHAN: A little bit. I mean, it was obviously off the record here. I mean, I think when we think about the election year that these guys are in, there’s three lenses to look at this kind of issue that they have. One is political. We know that Trump in ’16, and then again during midterms in ’18 really ran hard on immigration, right?
And so, when you think about that, the other lens that kind of transfers into, right now, the labor market is really tight, and economically, in an election year, that could pose a really big problem when you think about it here because we’re just not seeing the sort of economic growth that you might expect at this stage of the recovery over the last ten years.
And then the last lens to think about it is through stock market. And so, if companies are having a hard time finding skilled workers, that means there’s going to be wage pressure which could weigh on profit margins. And at this stage of the game, with valuations where they are, with a stock market at all-time highs, you could see that as a sort of sign at top that profit margins start declining.
So all of those three things pose real issues for this administration in an election year because if you did have some sort of head wind to economic growth, it’s already facing coronavirus right now, and then really the head winds of the trade war, you have a really difficult situation. And then the backdrop of it is all these corporations –
RUHLE: But do you have a difficult situation? Let’s talk short term. Look at the stock market. Look at corporate America. Yes, we have got a bifurcated economy and there a lot of people are saying, “I’m suffering.” But as far as the winning economy that the President needs from now until November, do you really see that changing?
NATHAN: Well, I’ll give you two examples. 2008, at this time, nobody thought we would have a global financial crisis right on our shores.
RUHLE: Oh, good point.
NATHAN: And that’s the thing that really sunk John McCain’s candidacy then. Think about 2018, you know what happened in Q4 2018? The stock market fell 20%. You know what also happened? The Dems took back the House in that period. So you know, these are messages. I think those lenses are really important to think about, politically, economically, and the stock market, they’re all related. Nobody can tell you what’s going to happen, you know, in October or November of this year, but they all pose risk for this administration because the stock market at all-time highs is backward looking, it’s not forward looking. And so, if the stock market were to tumble this year, if we don’t get near the 3% GDP growth that this administration has been talking about for years, these are all things that Dems can run on and they pose a problem.
(...)
