Friday's Employment Situation Summary contained one strong element: In November, the economy added 321,000 seasonally adjusted payroll jobs. That's not insignificant, but that news, especially in the report's full context, certainly didn't justify the level of elation seen in much of the press.
Predictably, the Associated Press found a specious reason to characterize the government's report as signifying a "turning point." Get a load of why: "For the first time since the Great Recession ended 5-1/2 years ago, America's unemployed are now as likely to be hired as to stop looking for a job." In other words, for the first time in 65 months, what people would expect to be a normal situation finally occurred.
Here are several paragraphs from by AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber's writeup:
Look past the booming November job gain of 321,000 reported Friday - the best figure in three years in the strongest year for U.S. hiring since 1999.
The job market has reached a new milestone on its road to full health: For the first time since the Great Recession ended 5 1/2 years ago, America's unemployed are now as likely to be hired as to stop looking for a job.
It means that employers have grown confident enough to fill more job vacancies. And it means the unemployed are now less likely to succumb to frustration.
... For each month, the government estimates the proportion of the unemployed who found work and the proportion who stopped looking. In November, 23 percent of people who were out of work the previous month found jobs, and the same percentage gave up looking. (The figures are three-month averages, intended to smooth out volatility.)
That was the highest percentage of the unemployed to find work in any month since the recession officially ended in June 2009. A year ago, fewer than 19 percent of the unemployed were finding jobs.
It seems like you're pretty desperate if you have to cite statistics like those just seen to try to generate any kind of excitement.
These unfortunate facts, among dozens which I could easily recite, unfortunately remain (figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated):
- The Household Survey told us that only 15,000 additional Americans were employed in November compared to October.
- The workforce participantion rate (62.8 percent) and employment-population ratio (59.2 percent) didn't budge in November. Both figures are several percentage points below their respective pre-recession peaks.
- As I noted at my home blog on Friday, "full-time employment is STILL 2.4 million below where it was in November 2007 (seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted) — seven long years ago."
- Not seasonally adjusted, the number of Americans with part-time jobs (28.225 million) reached an all-time record in November.
The AP's Christopher Rugaber should have been, but wasn't, willing to wait a couple of months to see whether November's result for the statistics he cited will be replicated.
Considering the 5-1/2 years of malaise we've seen up until now (at least), it will take about five more months averaging 300,000 in monthly job additiona in both the Household and Establishment surveys before those hyping a "turning point" will even start to have a point — regardless of what happens with Rugaber's newsly favored stats.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
