It is Thursday, and on this edition of Morning Joe, barely a word uttered about January 6! The main highlight this time was the GDP numbers being released, and the show’s relief host Willie Geist did not seem too happy about what these numbers represent: America in a recession.
To sum it up, these GDP numbers “show another contraction for a second consecutive quarter which could signal the U.S. economy is in recession. This comes after the federal reserve raised interest rates again yesterday with the FED chair saying the path to avoiding recession has, quote, ‘narrowed.’”
To discuss these alarming numbers further, Geist brought on Stephanie Ruhle, host of MSNBC’s The 11th Hour. She's also a “business analyst” for NBC, but her business analysis was far from stellar.
Geist expressed to Ruhle: “Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, others have said this is not what an economy in recession looks like with low unemployment, plenty of jobs available to people but yes, inflation at a 40-year high. And now, by some definitions as you know better than most, this does show, the new number on the GDP, that the economy is in a recession,” asking her what the word was.
Ruhle’s analysis was oh so helpful, saying, “it is a very, very complicated situation.” She then told Willie boisterously to “come on!” and remember the war in Ukraine and supply chain issues leftover from COVID are what's causing this inflation (allegedly).
She continues droning on:
“This is complicating things, but you just laid out a few of the points. When you normally have a contracting economy, you don't have sizable wage growth, you don’t have unemployment as low as it is right? Go out any Main Street in America and you’re going to see help wanted, help wanted, help wanted.
And even housing, while people are concerned that housing prices are getting softer, they are still above pre-pandemic levels. And remember, just a few months ago we were hoping to get some relief in the housing market.”
After her all-over-the-place “analysis,” she labels the economy as “complicated and confusing,” concluding with “I know politicians don't like that because that doesn't work on a billboard, it doesn’t work when you want to beat the other side up, but that’s what we’ve got.”
Geist once again tried to bring Ruhle back out of Biden world and into the real one by expressing the struggle people are having at the store and at the pump, even mentioning small business owners are unable to find “anybody to work”. “It feels like a recession,” he reasoned.
The lasso to rein Ruhle back in must've snapped, because she responded with: “Willie, that is exactly it. So when you go ‘consumer confidence is down,’ of course it is down! Go purchase anything and things are more expensive.” She then ripped into Biden nonbelievers: "But to say that this administration isn't addressing things, they are."
Way Too Early host Jonathan Lemire seemed to be siding with Ruhle’s views on the economy. He said that “certainly the White House has been out there in recent days pushing back against the idea of this being labelled a recession even if it technically meets the criteria.”
“Listen, Jonathan, are you going to walk into a grocery store two days from now—two days after something gets signed and prices are going to drop? Absolutely not,” stating the obvious. She then expressed what a “big deal” it would be if the Biden administration could get this bill passed and combat inflation.
U.S. special correspondent for BBC News Katty Kay asked Ruhle if the U.S. would experience the same price surges and shortages Europe is facing. “We have to remember what difficult times we're living in,” Ruhle repeated, “the war in Ukraine is pushing this inflation situation worse all around the world.”
This was not "business analysis" at all, any American could make these conclusions. America is closer to recession no matter how many times Biden cheerleaders try to redefine it.
This example of not-so-stellar analysis was sponsored by 4imprint and U.S. Postal Service.
Click "expand" to view the full transcript.
MSNBC’s Morning Joe
July 28, 2022
8:58:04 a.m.
WILLIE GEIST: The second quarter GDP numbers just released and they do show another contraction for a second consecutive quarter which could signal the U.S. economy is in recession. This comes after the federal reserve raised interest rates again yesterday with the FED chair saying the path to avoiding recession has, quote, “narrowed.”
Let's bring in NBC News senior business analyst and host of The 11th Hour on MSNBC, Stephanie Ruhle. Jonathan Lemire, Mike Barnicle, Katty Kay, all still with us as well. Steph, good to see you, so let’s dig into this.
Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, others have said this is not what an economy in recession looks like with low unemployment, plenty of jobs available to people but yes, inflation at a 40-year high. And now, by some definitions as you know better than most, this does show, the new number on the GDP, that the economy is in a recession. So, what’s the word?
STEPHANIE RUHLE: It is a very, very complicated situation. Listen, people don't like to hear that the economy is shrinking but remember, by raising rates, that’s what Jay Powell is trying to do. And to simply say, “we have a good economy,” or “we have a bad economy,” come on Willie! We have to remember what is causing inflation. You’ve got a war in Ukraine, we’ve got supply chain issues that are still lingering from COVID.
This is complicating things, but you just laid out a few of the points. When you normally have a contracting economy, you don't have sizable wage growth, you don’t have unemployment as low as it is right? Go out any Main Street in America and you’re going to see help wanted, help wanted, help wanted.
And even housing, while people are concerned that housing prices are getting softer, they are still above pre-pandemic levels. And remember, just a few months ago we were hoping to get some relief in the housing market.
So, what we have on our hands is a complicated confusing economy. I know politicians don't like that because that doesn't work on a billboard, it doesn’t work when you want to beat the other side up, but that’s what we’ve got.
GEIST: Yeah, and you know, inflation obviously plays into this if it is a semantic game almost that if we’re in a recession or not, to a lot of people it feels like one. If you're running a small business as you just talked about and you can't find anybody to work in your shop or if you’re paying a ton for groceries and gas, it feels like a recession.
RUHLE: Willie, that is exactly it. So when you go “consumer confidence is down,” of course it is down! Go purchase anything and things are more expensive. So, naturally one would feel that way. What we need to do right now is figure out what people need to do to be saving because what we're heading into, more than anything, is uncertain times.
But to say that this administration isn't addressing things, they are. Whether you're talking about chips, whether you’re talking about broadband, whether you’re talking about lowering the price of pharmaceuticals, you're actually seeing Democrats try to make moves that will make life easier and more affordable for the American people.
And while it is very easy for Republicans right now to beat on the inflation story because everybody out there is talking about it, they have not yet offered any alternate solutions. It is complicated.
JONATHAN LEMIRE: And certainly the White House has been out there in recent days pushing back against the idea of this being labelled a recession even if it technically meets the criteria. Stephanie, you know certainly there also could—good news yesterday, the belief that Senator Manchin is signing off on this bill that will hopefully, believe will help bring down inflation.
But it shows how fragile that is going to be. Senator Dick Durbin just tested positive for COVID and they of course can't pass reconciliation without all 50 votes, this means he’s unavailable next week.
So, but walk us through if they are able to get this done, whether it’s next week or weeks ahead. What sort of impact could this legislation have to try to bring down inflation which of course would be another sign of an economy that actually is healthier than what we're seeing on the GDP.
RUHLE: Listen, Jonathan, are you going to walk into a grocery store two days from now—two days after something gets signed and prices are going to drop? Absolutely not. But this goes back to what Willie said moments ago. It is about how people feel. It is about what is the game plan going forward. So if this administration could get something done, it’s really big.
And the thing for administration to do, rather than keep racing around talking about the definition of a recession, when my mother goes to the grocery store and she’s complaining about the price of milk, she's not worried about the definition of recession. What they need to be doing is talking more about that more affordable broadband. Here’s a website you go to.
Once they get things lower potentially in terms of pharmaceutical pricing, showing people how to access that. Right now we're in this circle with this media blitz and it is not doing much for anyone. If Democrats could pull this off though, it is going to be a really big deal.
KATTY KAY: Steph, there is a certain amount the Fed can do domestically, there’s a certain amount the White House can do domestically, but I'm looking at the headlines from Europe at the moment today and it is about a massive surge in energy prices because the Russians are basically cutting off the gas to Europe. We know the problems of trying to get food out of Ukraine.
Is there a risk that as we head into the fall and the winter, some of those—some of what we're seeing in Europe spills back over into the United States and inflation becomes even harder to get under control.
RUHLE: Listen, there is that risk. Right? We have to remember what difficult times we're living in. The war in Ukraine is pushing this inflation situation worse all around the world. And we talk about it all of the time. Inflation isn’t unique to the United States, it’s happening everywhere.
But again when somebody is out there buying gas, even though this is getting cheaper than it was a month ago, it is more expensive than it was a year ago and people at the gas stations in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, aren't thinking about the price of gas in France and this is a very unpredictable situation.
Obviously, the President did just recently go and speak with MBS. We're working on pumping more, we’re working on energy independence, but that doesn't happen overnight.
GEIST: Again, that top line number, the GDP in the second quarter shrank .9 percent the second consecutive quarter, going in the wrong direction.
