On Monday, ABC’s World News Tonight anchor David Muir felt compelled to double down on his fake fact check of former President Trump from the September 10 debate by touting a new FBI report claiming “a dramatic drop in violent crime” and contrary to what voters feel.
But, as per the great John Lott Jr. of Crime Prevention Research Center, it’s not as simple as the pro-Kamala Harris media want you to believe.
First, Muir heralded the report in the lead-in to the voice-over report from chief Justice correspondent Pierre Thomas: “Next, tonight, one of the issues in this presidential race, violent crime in the U.S. Tonight, the FBI reporting a dramatic drop in violent crime. The latest numbers from 2023 showing murders down more than 11 percent. The FBI says it’s the biggest decline in decades.”
Thomas did his part as well in touting the “dramatic” and “stunning” drops “in violent crime” with murders having seen “the biggest drop in decades”, shrinking by 11 percent.
After at least conceding the report only dealt with “crimes reported to police” and left out roughly six percent of the population, Thomas played a soundbite of Donald Trump warning of violent crimes like assault and rape to claim things are closer to peachy than doom and glom:
But the new FBI numbers show in addition to a dramatic drop in homicides, which are overwhelmingly committed with guns, there’s also been a decrease in rape, down 9.4 percent and aggravated assault down nearly three percent. Decreases also seen in property crime, burglary, and larceny. The only significant category which jumped in 2023 was car theft, which increased by nearly 13 percent but, like other crime categories, is trending down this year, as well.
Thomas closed the quick story by celebrating Harris’s handlers as “embracing the new numbers, saying its confirms the administration’s efforts are working.”
He threw those concerned about crime a bone, but it’s safe to say he was making a coded reference to the need for European-style gun control: “[T]he fact remains that the U.S. is far more violent than other major powers and crime remains a significant issue for many voters[.]”
Lott had a post breaking down the issues with this wholesale declaration (which, as he noted, is similar to how jobs numbers often are revised up or down) (click “expand”):
The newly released FBI data...should be compared to the Bureau of Justice Statistics data, which showed 4.1% increase in reported serious violent crime in 2023 (rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, but even though murder isn’t included, it covers only about 1 percent of reported violent crimes and even less of total violent crimes).
USA Today’s headline on the new FBI reported crime data claims “Violent crime dropped for second straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” There are two errors in their headline. First, that it is the FBI’s measure of reported crime that fell, but that is not the same as all crime nor is it the only measure of reported crime. So they could have written, the FBI’s measure of reported violent crime fell in 2023. The second error is that they are wrong claiming that this was the second straight year, where an adjustment in the data showed a 4.5% increase in 2022. Originally, the FBI said that violent crime had fallen by 2.1% and now they say it increased by 4.5%. Just like the Bureau of Labor Statistics overestimated the number of jobs created.
After running through a serious of liberal media headlines, he pointed out that “[n]one of these stories mention that less than two weeks ago the Bureau of Justice Statistic’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) showed a 55% increase in serious violent crime (rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) that most closely matches the FBI data since 2020 and a 19% increase since 2019.”
And there was also this crucial tidbit: “[W]hile murder fell by 16.2% from 2020 to 2023, it is still above the pre-COVID levels by 9.6%.”
To see the relevant ABC transcript from September 23, click “expand.”
ABC’s World News Tonight with David Muir
September 23, 2024
6:42 p.m. Eastern[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: FBI: Violent Crime Drops Across U.S.]
DAVID MUIR: Next tonight, one of the issues in this presidential race, violent crime in the U.S. Tonight, the FBI reporting a dramatic drop in violent crime. The latest numbers from 2023 showing murders down more than 11 percent. The FBI says it’s the biggest decline in decades. Here’s Pierre Thomas.
[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: Breaking News; FBI: Violent Crime Drops Across U.S.; Murders Down 11.6%, Largest Decline in Decades]
PIERRE THOMAS: Tonight, the FBI recording dramatic declines in violent crime, especially murders, which saw the biggest drop in decades. Murders down in 2023 a stunning 11 percent.
AH DATALYTICS CO-FOUNDER JEFF ASHER: We have data back to 1960. We’ve now seen the largest decrease in murder ever recorded.
THOMAS: The new numbers, which are actual crimes reported to police, and which cover 94 percent of the American population and all major U.S. cities, come as crime has been hotly debated on the campaign trail.
DONALD TRUMP [on 08/20/24]: You can’t walk across the street to get a loaf of bread, you get shot, you get mugged, you get raped, you get — whatever it may be.
THOMAS: But the new FBI numbers show in addition to a dramatic drop in homicides, which are overwhelmingly committed with guns, there’s also been a decrease in rape, down 9.4 percent and aggravated assault down nearly three percent. Decreases also seen in property crime, burglary, and larceny. The only significant category which jumped in 2023 was car theft, which increased by nearly 13 percent but, like other crime categories, is trending down this year, as well. The Harris campaign is embracing the new numbers, saying its confirms the administration’s efforts are working, but the fact remains that the U.S. is far more violent than other major powers and crime remains a significant issue for many voters, David.
MUIR: Pierre Thomas live in Washington. Pierre, thank you.
