Contrary to claims by leftist “fact checkers,” such as Politfact.com, transgender individuals actually commit a disproportionately high share of mass public and active shooting attacks, new analysis by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) reveals.
Regardless of the data analyzed or estimates of transgender population used, transgenders commit a far higher proportion of mass public and active shootings than their share of the U.S. population would suggest, the CPRC study finds.
In 2024, for example, their share of mass public and active shooting attacks was at least 12 times – and possibly more than 16 times - their share of the population.
Attempts by groups like Politifact to use data to dismiss concerns of transgender violence are based on faulty analysis – because they don’t factor in transgender individuals’ share of the violent attacks in the U.S. relative to their share of the population – CPRC President John Lott explains:
“That is an obvious statistical mistake. If a group makes up just 1 percent of the population but commits 10 percent of the attacks, no one would dismiss that disparity simply because the group accounts for “only” 10 percent of active shooting attacks.”
Like Politifact’s 2025 report titled “Are trans people ‘statistically’ more prone to commit gun violence? Data shows a different picture,” CPRC’s study analyzes data for the years 2018-2024. But, Lott’s analysis takes transgenders’ share of the U.S. population into account.
CPRC performed separate analyses of two different sets of crime data: FBI-only data and data using an expanded definition of active shooting incorporating FBI data. In both cases, transgender individuals were found to have committed disproportionately high shares of mass public and active shooting attacks.
Likewise, CPRC looked at two different estimates of the share of the U.S. population comprised of transgender individuals: 0.73% and 1.0%. Again, transgenders committed a far higher proportion of active shootings in both cases.
The ratio of shooting-share to population-share spiked in 2024, suggesting a worsening problem of active shootings by transgender individuals. Using the 0.73% population estimate, the ratio jumped from 2.84 times higher in 2023 to 16.37 times higher in 2024. With the 1.0% estimate, the ratio still vaults from 2.08 to 12.0.
From 2018-2024, if they comprised 0.73%, their share of shootings was 3.4 times their share of population. If 1.0%, it was 2.5 times higher than their share of the population. When the definition of active shooting is expanded to include additional events (at 0.73%), the proportion is 2.1 times higher.
What’s more, the share of active shootings committed by transgender individuals was more than twice their relative population proportion in five of the seven years studied.
The deadly shootings by transgender individuals are continuing this year, Breitbart News notes, citing the example of how “a transgender shooter opened fire on his family at a high school hockey game on February 16, 2026.” The shooter reportedly “killed his ex-wife and one of his sons, then took his own life.”
