Despite a loss of 168,000 federal government jobs, November’s unemployment situation was “little changed,” the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday.
Due to the federal government shutdown, which lasted all of October and nearly half of November, BLS did not publish a report for October. As a result, much of Tuesday’s report compares November to September – preventing analysts and Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from placing much weight in the partial results.
The November BLS report makes frequent use of the phrase “little changed” (emphasis added):
- “Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September.”
- “In November, both the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.8 million, were little changed from September.”
- “The jobless rates for adult men (4.1 percent), adult women (4.1 percent), Whites (3.9 percent), Blacks (8.3 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little change.”
- “In November, both the labor force participation rate (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were little changed from September. These measures showed little or no change over the year.”
- “Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.”
- Construction employment grew by 28,000 in November, as nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 19,000 jobs. Construction employment had changed little over the prior 12 months.”
The unemployment rate in November (4.6%) was slightly higher than September’s 4.4% mark, but no comparison to October was available, due to the partial data available.
November’s 64,000 increase in total nonfarm employment from October exceeded analysts’ expectations of 50,000 growth, but failed to fully offset September’s 105,000 job loss.
President Donald Trump’s recent efforts to reduce the size of the bloated federal government suppressed nonfarm employment growth over the past two months – providing long-term benefit to the American taxpayers who fund government.
Since September, federal government employment has decreased by 168,000, while total nonfarm employment (including federal) has decreased by 41,000. Without the decline in excess, tax-funded federal government jobs, total nonfarm employment would have increased by 127,000 since September, or 63,500 per month.
Federal government employment has been reduced by more than a quarter-million jobs since Trump entered the White House in January, a number that might have been even higher without the vagaries of severance-incentive payments made to resigned employees who were counted as employed, BLS reports:
“Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls.
“Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January.
“Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.”
The shutdown’s effect on data collection makes it unlikely November’s report will have any significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s decisions about interest rates, as Fox Business explains:
“Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said that the ‘Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today's report given data disruptions.’
"‘Chair Powell commented last week that the report would likely be affected by shutdown-related distortions, making it a less reliable gauge of the labor market's health than usual,’ Haigh explained. "The report on December's employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed when it comes to deciding the near-term trajectory."
