October’s jump in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index defied economists’ dour forecasts by rising 8.9%, the nonprofit think tank’s latest monthly report released Tuesday shows.
At 91.7, the October index is 7.5 points higher than September’s upwardly-revised level of 84.2. Economists had predicted the index would decline to 81.
The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, as net views of both current business conditions and current employment conditions improved.
In October, 21.4% called business conditions “good,” up from 18.8% in September. Conversely, those who said they considered conditions “bad” fell from 20.0% to 17.8%.
The Expectations Index’s assessment of short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions also brightened, rising 6.9 points to 72.6, with all three components posting improvement.
The percent of consumers who expect their income to increase rose from 18.1% to 18.7%, while those who said they think their income will decline fell from 14.9% to 12.0%.
Consumers’ expectations for future business conditions, while still net negative, improved in October. Here, those expecting better conditions rose from 16.5% in September to 17.7% in October. Meanwhile, expectations for business conditions to deteriorate fell from 25.2% to 20.7%.
Net expectations for the labor market also became slightly less pessimistic. Those who said more jobs will soon be available increased from 14.7% to 15.2%, while those who said there will be fewer jobs fell from 27.6% to 26.3%.
“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions,” Conference Board Senior Economist Fergus McCormick said in a statement, noting that “the recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October.”
The Conference Board’s survey was conducted October 1-21, 2026.
