On Wednesday’s installment of The 11th Hour on MSNBC, host Stephanie Ruhle falsely declared that while inflation in America is bad, it is better than most everywhere else. That bad take was topped by Harvard’s John Della Volpe and Puck’s Peter Hamby declaring that inflation will not be a big election issue in November.
Addressing Della Volpe, Ruhle asked, “John, we’ve said it before, inflation is a global problem. And when you actually look at that U.S. versus other countries, it's like we're the best house on a bad street. But does that matter to voters? That sure it's bad here but it's worse elsewhere?”
That is not true, the U.S. is near the bottom of the world’s major economies when it comes to inflation. For his part, Della Volpe stated the obvious that, even if Ruhle was corrected, it doesn’t make people feel better about food and gas prices:
But surprisingly Stephanie, this election cycle is different, I think, because despite the fact that inflation does not seem to be tamed in the last year, the Republican advantage in most of the generic ballot tests that we see is actually dissipating, you know, over the last several months. You know, when we look at February, Republicans had twice the advantage that they have today. So unlike other cycles I am not so sure that inflation is as correlated with the ballot as it once was.
While Della Volpe is technically correct, he omitted the all-important context that showed the GOP lead going from 3.3 to 1.9 percent. Not exactly some radical change.
Continuing with Della Volpe’s theme of not caring about inflation, Ruhle asked Hamby about Gen Z specifically, “Is their issue they like Democrats or Republicans, or is it that they don't think either party or who is running either party, represents what they want, what they care about?”
Hamby declared it was both and that “Whether it's reproductive rights, gun violence, voting rights, identity issues. But they don't feel like the Democratic Party has delivered for them.
However, while maybe not at 2018 or 2020 rates, Hamby still predicted young people will vote, “So we’ll see. I mean, I think young people feel like, especially Gen Z, they cannot afford not to vote.”
Maybe because all they hear is the sort of spin you get from MSNBC on a daily basis.
This segment was sponsored by Expedia.
Here is a transcript for the July 14 show:
MSNBC The 11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle
7/13/2022
11:36 PM ET
STEPHANIE RUHLE: John, we’ve said it before, inflation is a global problem. And when you actually look at that U.S. versus other countries, it's like we're the best house on a bad street. But does that matter to voters? That sure it's bad here but it's worse elsewhere?
JOHN DELLA VOLPE: No, it matters to voters every single day that oftentimes, they spend, you know, the drive from their house to their work, rather, you know, it takes—it takes—them, they’re spending a couple hours of their--of their-- first couple of hours of pay, right, and the effect that it has on individuals every single day. But surprisingly Stephanie, this election cycle is different, I think, because despite the fact that inflation does not seem to be tamed in the last year, the Republican advantage in most of the generic ballot tests that we see is actually dissipating, you know, over the last several months. You know, when we look at February, Republicans had twice the advantage that they have today. So unlike other cycles I am not so sure that inflation is as correlated with the ballot as it once was.
RUHLE: Peter, you've got a new piece in Puck titled, Out with The Old, it’s all about Gen Z. Is their issue they like Democrats or Republicans, or is it that they don't think either party or who is running either party, represents what they want, what they care about?
PETER HAMBY: It's a little bit of both. And this gets to what John was just saying. There seems to be a difference between the approval rating of the president, and the party in power, and the generic ballot test for November. Young people, Gen Z in particular, and John just did an amazing study with the Walton Foundation and Murmuration on this. A poll that measured Gen Z sentiment, people under 18 as well, which is pretty rare in polling.
And look they say, in focus groups, they say in polls, they voted for Biden because he wasn't Trump. There’s not a lot of affinity there for the Democratic Party, Gen Z and younger millennials in particular feel like that they are being deprived of certain liberties. Whether it's reproductive rights, gun violence, voting rights, identity issues. But they don't feel like the Democratic Party has delivered for them.
I mean, Biden’s biggest accomplishment, you can argue, is the infrastructure bill. That is not something that is very salient to a 19-year-old who is not gonna see the long tail outcome of that for many years to come.
And, so I think when they head into November, this is—this is-- gets to your question, I think young people will still vote albeit not at the rates certainly of 2020 and maybe not as high as they did when they turned out in 2018 when a huge amount of—of-- young people voted in a midterm election. But the choice on the ballot is very important here. Young people might not, they are progressive, they skew progressive, they might not like Joe Biden, but when they see the contrast in a place like Pennsylvania, for example, between Josh Shapiro and—and-- Doug Mastriano, that choice gets to their existential fears about the future of our democracy, and what it can do for them, and so I think John is right, people will show up and vote. But the generic ballot is closer than the Biden approval rating would suggest. So we’ll see. I mean, I think young people feel like, especially Gen Z, they cannot afford not to vote.
