NBC weatherman Al Roker stepped up to the plate on Thursday’s edition of Today to attempt to explain why baseball was seeing more home runs. The supposed explanation? Climate change.
An energetic Roker explained that:
Heat and humidity reduce air density so baseballs can fly further. Well, guess what, they have been taken off, the baseball season has warmed over two degrees since 1970, each two degrees of warming adds 95 [home] runs per season. That's right, and that’s why we've been seeing all of these home runs. Top ten ballparks that will see more home runs with climate change, from Baltimore, Washington, St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, even Minneapolis. So, there you have it. More home runs, but that means we are warming up as far as our climate is concerned.”
On the Saturday edition of Today, Sam Brock gave more details. Speaking on a Dartmouth study, Brock reported: “I talked to the lead author. He said he's a huge baseball fan who is also a climate scientist and he wanted to test out a theory that warmer temperatures create less dense air where baseballs theoretically can fly farther. Are we seeing more home runs? What he found is 500 more home runs over the course of a decade, and that increase is expected to be more pronounced in future years.”
That warmer weather helps hitters was not exactly a new or insightful observation. Still, Brock added:
Chris Callahan and a team of scientists collected data spanning decades and accounted for natural variation in temperatures using computer simulation models. They found between 2010 and 2019, there were 500 more home runs directly attributable to climate change. Since baseball averaged around 5,000 long balls a year over that time frame that's only about 50 a season or one percent of all home runs, but expect that figure to rise.
It was interesting Brock chose to highlight 2010-2019 because those years saw fewer home runs than 2000-2009. It also ignores changes in baseball. From the so-called launch angle revolution to hitters developing a more accepting attitude towards striking out, to changes in the ball itself, baseball was not a static variable.
Nevertheless, Callahan declared, “a very, sort of, high emissions future, where we continue to pump out CO2 we could see close to 500 additional home runs per season.”
Continuing with the causation-correlation fallacies, Brock added: “More modest emissions could mean closer to 100 or 200 more per season. The projections for pop vary dramatically based on ballpark. The three with the lowest numbers happen to be in warmer climates, Loan Depot in Miami, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, and Minute Maid in Houston, but they're all indoor venues, those slated to see the greatest bump, Comerica Park in Detroit, Target Field in Minnesota, and Wrigley in Chicago.”
Those numbers fail to consider the quality of the teams with indoor stadiums. In 2022, the Miami Marlins had the third-worst offense in MLB. The Tampa Bay Rays were in the bottom ten. At the same time, the Rays and Houston Astros had top-six pitching staffs and the Marlins were above average.
Thursday’s Today was sponsored by Ford and Saturday’s was sponsored by Comcast.
Here are transcripts for the April 8 and13 shows:
NBC Today
4/13/2023
8:33 AM ETAL ROKER: Let's show you what we're looking at for today. Hey, how about a little baseball? Climate change and home runs. That’s right, home run weather. Heat and humidity reduce air density so baseballs can fly further. Well, guess what, they have been taken off, the baseball season has warmed over two degrees since 1970, each two degrees of warming adds 95 runs per season. That's right, and that’s why we've been seeing all of these home runs. Top ten ballparks that will see more home runs with climate change, from Baltimore, Washington, St. Louis, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, even Minneapolis. So, there you have it. More home runs, but that means we are warming up as far as our climate is concerned.
***
NBC Today
4/8/2023
8:11 AM ETPETER ALEXANDER: We're back with Today’s Talker, and there are plenty of reasons why baseball has seen an increase in home runs in recent years. Data, analytics, swing angles.
JOE FRYER: Yeah, but one factor that might surprise you is climate change. That's according to a new study from researchers at Dartmouth College.
KRISTEN WELKER: That’s right, NBC's Sam Brock is taking a swing at this story from Loan Depot Park, home of the Miami Marlins, hey there, Sam, take it away.
SAM BROCK: Hi, Kristen, guys, good morning, somebody had to step up to the plate, and apparently the authors at Dartmouth decided that was going to be them. I talked to the lead author. He said he's a huge baseball fan who is also a climate scientist and he wanted to test out a theory that warmer temperatures create less dense air where baseballs theoretically can fly farther. Are we seeing more home runs? What he found is 500 more home runs over the course of a decade, and that increase is expected to be more pronounced in future years.
Baseball's biggest smashers may be doing it on brute strength and skill.
GARY COHEN: And Pete gets a hold of one to centerfield, back goes Chisholm, right back near the wall, and it's out of here!
BROCK: Researchers uncovered another element driving up home runs in baseball, the air temperature and climate change.
CHRIS CALLAHAN: Going back even to the 1960s, we have data on the number of home runs in each game and the temperature in each game and we're able to say when the weather is warmer, there are more home runs.
BROCK: Chris Callahan and a team of scientists collected data spanning decades and accounted for natural variation in temperatures using computer simulation models. They found between 2010 and 2019, there were 500 more home runs directly attributable to climate change. Since baseball averaged around 5,000 long balls a year over that time frame that's only about 50 a season or one percent of all home runs, but expect that figure to rise.
BROCK: How many more home runs are we talking about per season because of climate change?
CALLAHAN: It depends on how much we emit in terms of greenhouse gases. So, a very, sort of, high emissions future, where we continue to pump out CO2 we could see close to 500 additional home runs per season.
BROCK: More modest emissions could mean closer to 100 or 200 more per season. The projections for pop vary dramatically based on ballpark. The three with the lowest numbers happen to be in warmer climates, Loan Depot in Miami, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, and Minute Maid in Houston, but they're all indoor venues, those slated to see the greatest bump, Comerica Park in Detroit, Target Field in Minnesota, and Wrigley in Chicago.
CALLAHAN: It’s because Wrigley Field plays most games during the day, which also happens when the temperatures are highest in the early afternoon, relative to night games when temperatures are milder.
BROCK: Baseball’s hallmark hit.
JOE BLOCK: The Major League home run leader, that’s five!
BROCK: Apparently a beneficiary of a global problem.
