January Job Growth Shocks Analysts by More than Doubling Expectations

February 11th, 2026 11:11 AM

The nation’s employment picture enjoyed broad-based improvement in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Statistics (BLS) report released Wednesday.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 jobs from the previous month, more than doubling analysts’ predictions. The Dow Jones consensus prediction for job growth, for example, was a mere 55,000. Private payrolls (excluding government) grew by 172,000 jobs in January, well above the LSEG expectation of 70,000.

Meanwhile, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, which was not expected to improve, dipped to 4.3% from 4.4% in December.

In January, federal government employment continued to decline (-34,000) as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer in 2025 came off federal payrolls. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 327,000, or 10.9%.

“Under President Trump, federal employment has declined to its lowest level since 1966 — and the lowest level in recorded history as a share of the total workforce,” the White House Rapid Response team reported on X.com Wednesday.

Other measures that improved over the month include:

  • The labor force participation rate increased from 62.4% to 62.5%.
  • The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons decreased by 453,000 to 4.9 million.
  • The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job decreased by 399,000 to 5.8 million.
  • An unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons declined 0.4 percentage point to 8%.
  • The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in January.
  • The 130,000 jobs added represent the highest monthly growth since April of 2025 (+158,000).

By sector, key changes to job totals over the month include:

  • Government payrolls: -42,000.
  • Federal government: -34,000.
  • State government: -18,000.
  • Local government: +10,000.
  • Healthcare: +82,000 jobs in January, above its monthly average of +33,000 in 2025.
  • Construction: +33,000.
  • The financial sector: -22,000 jobs.

“These are solid, solid data points,” CNBC observed in its analysis of Wednesday’s BLS report.