Inflation in November was lower than analysts had predicted, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday reveals.
In its delayed report on November prices, BLS was unable to make its usual comparisons to the previous month (October), due to the recent 43-day federal government shutdown at the hands of House Democrats refusing to pass a continuing resolution for funding. CPI data collection was suspended during the shutdown, which lasted from October 1 through November 12.
CPI data collection resumed on November 14. October data could not be retroactively estimated in virtually all cases, BLS explains in the report:
“BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to the lapse in appropriations. BLS was unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October.”
Compared to a year earlier, the CPI for all items increased 2.7% in November, less than economists’ expectations of 3.1% and down from the 3.0% rise over the 12-month period ending in September.
Inflation, as measured by the “core” CPI index, which excludes the volatile gasoline and food categories, was also cooler than expected, rising 2.6% from a year ago – the smallest 12-month increase since March of 2021.
November prices for some products (including airline fares, eggs, propane, firewood and kerosene) were actually lower than they were year-ago.
November Prices Compared to 12 Months Earlier:
- All items: up 2.7%
- Core items: up 2.6%
- Food: up 2.6%, but 1.9% at-home costs (3.7% away)
- Meats, poultry, fish: up 6.8%
- Eggs: down 13.2%
- Fruits and vegetables: up 0.1%
- Energy: up 4.2%
- Gas: up 0.9%
- Fuel oil: up 11.3%
- Propane, kerosene, firewood: down 5.9%
- Utility gas service: up 9.1%
- Airline fares: down 5.4%
- Housing prices: up 3.0%
Notably, while the price of all food items combined increased 2.6% from November 2024, inflation in the cost of food away from home (3.7%) nearly doubled that of food at home (1.9%).
Traditionally, the CPI’s report provides price comparisons to the previous month. But, without October data, it reported comparisons to September, making the two-month comparisons incompatible with the typical month-to-month results in previous reports. Compared to September, seasonally-adjusted CPI increased 0.2%, as did the core index.
Due to the vagaries of the data, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take results from the BLS report for November into account when deciding whether or not to cut interest rates at its next meeting in January.
Still, the White House celebrated November’s results and year-to-year comparisons. “Today’s report shows that inflation came in far lower than market expectations — a stark comparison to the record-high 9% inflation crisis caused by Joe Biden,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said:
“Core inflation is at a new multi-year low, as prices for groceries, medicine, gas, airfare, car rentals, and hotels keep falling. Americans can expect this trend of lower prices and bigger paychecks to continue into the New Year!”
“Here’s what they’re saying,” the White House wrote in a statement quoting media and economists cheering November’s numbers:
- CNBC’s Steve Liesman: “That is a very good number.”
- CNN’s Matt Egan: “Clearly, this is another step in the right direction.”
- Harvard University Professor of Economics & Public Policy Ken Rogoff: “A better number than anyone was expecting… Positive news. There’s no other way to spin it.”
- Economist Steve Moore: “Amazing… This is good news for Wall Street; it’s good news for Main Street… I got a big smile on my face right before Christmas with this number.”
- Strategic Wealth Partners CEO Mark Tepper: “Incredible. I thought tariffs were supposed to be inflationary, by the way, and we’re seeing inflation coming down. The affordability gap is closing every single day under President Trump’s watch. We’ve seen real wage growth be positive, inflation slowing — this is great for America.”
- The Washington Examiner’s Tiana Lowe Doescher: “It’s incredible to look at that core [inflation] number… the lowest number we’ve had since Biden started this all lighting the economy on fire… That is called bringing it back. Well done to Donald Trump!”
- Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey: “The lowest estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of 62 economists was 2.8% for the core year-on-year increase. (That was from Citigroup.) And the reading came in two tenths below that. Remarkable.”
- The Washington Post’s Andrew Ackerman: “Inflation cooled unexpectedly in November, easing pressure on household budgets and handing the White House a welcome reprieve.”
