The Barack Obama campaign has been floundering. If he had a lead in the polls in late June--and the summer polls are notoriously fickly--he clearly lost it by the convention's beginning. And so far, the convention--dominated, ironically, by the Clintons--has not particularly helped. Bill Clinton and Joe Biden performed quite well last night, but if Obama fails to deliver a spellbinding oration tonight, the Democrats could be in for a long and disappointing fall.
So how did the once "invincible" Obama end up appearing headed for a big fall? At first Judis absolves Obama of most of the blame and, unoriginally, faults white racism:
Why is Obama in trouble? Many of his problems are not of his own doing; they stem from his being the first African American to have a shot at the presidency. The New York Times' Matt Bai insists that "the race isn't about race" and that what matters more is Obama's "remarkably little governing experience." Obama's inexperience is undoubtedly a handicap against John McCain, but what Bai misses is the connection: Obama's race reinforces whatever doubts voters might have about his ability to govern.
Judis then claims that the fact that Obama is black means that unenlightened white voters will view him as even more liberal than he already is...if that were possible:
Concerns about Obama's race and his being a tax-and-spend liberal, however, are intricately related. Psychological studies showing that white voters will judge a black candidate to be less competent also show that they will judge a black candidate with the same views as a white one to be less moderate and more leftwing. Worries about race reinforce worries about taxing and spending.
So Obama starts the general election with a large handicap that he has to overcome. And as voters have begun to focus on the choice between him and McCain, and as the McCain campaign has gone on the attack against Obama's experience and ideology, these handicaps have become much more serious.
The nail-biting Judis still thinks that Obama has a good chance to win in November but just can't seem to stop worrying:
...All in all, Obama has a good chance to win in November--but this summer the Obama campaign has made the crucial error of conducting itself as it were on the verge of a landslide victory, comparable to Lyndon Johnson's win over Barry Goldwater in 1964. And it is still displaying the same overconfidence.
After securing the nomination in June, Obama's first priority had to be healing the rift between himself and Hillary Clinton. Candidates who can't put nomination battles behind them well before the convention usually lose. Think of Goldwater in 1964, Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Walter Mondale in 1984. There are only two candidates I can remember who succeeded in overcoming intraparty rifts during the convention--John Kennedy in 1960 and Ronald Reagan in 1980--and they did it by nominating their primary opponents to be vice president.
Obama, who evidently did not see a nail-biting election looming, chose not to do that, and is reaping the consequences. I didn't think so last spring, but I realize now that Obama would have been better off had he chosen Hillary Clinton. Of course, he might have faced a nightmare in January 2009 with Bill and Hillary in the White House, but at least he would have been more assured of making it there. As it is, he may not be able to count on Clinton's fundraisers in the fall, he may not be able to count on all of her voters, and states that might have been in play with the two Clintons in tow--Florida, Arkansas, and Missouri--probably won't be.
Obama's pursuit of a 50-state strategy (now mercifully reduced to eighteen) is another sign of overconfidence. This summer, for instance, he spent money advertising and opening up field offices in Georgia. He has even appointed a coordinator for gay Georgians. That's fine, but Obama doesn't have a prayer of carrying Georgia in the presidential election. That's the kind of calculation you make if you think you're Johnson in 1964 and not Kennedy in 1960. Or if you think that field operations have the same effect in a general election that they do in a party caucus. From my experience, Obama's field operations were actually superior to those of Hillary Clinton in West Virginia, a state where he won 26 percent of the vote. They were superior in California, too, which Obama also lost. Field operations can be important, but as Karl Rove showed in 2004, they have to be carefully targeted.
Judis also gives Obama a really bad piece of advice about participating in frequent town hall meetings:
Finally, Obama's rejection of McCain's proposal to hold weekly town meeting debates probably stemmed from overconfidence. The leading candidate always wants to avoid debates. But I agree with my colleague Michael Crowley, who thinks these town hall meetings could have helped Obama's campaign. As detailed polling and focus groups have shown, Obama still remains a mystery to most voters; and as an African American, the mystery risks being solved with the usual stereotypes. Obama could have used these weekly meetings to introduce himself to white voters and to reassure them that he wouldn't put black interests above theirs. And as an extra bonus, McCain may not have been able to maintain his cool during ten or twelve weekly debates.
Huh? Didn't Judis see what happened to Obama at the Saddleback church forum? It was a disaster for Obama. Perhaps Judis' mind entered that cone of silence when it came to making this suggestion. Finally Judis comes up with what he thinks is his best suggestion for Obama and it is quite amazing he makes it in public---he wants Obama to flat out fool the voters on the economy. I kid you not:
But what Obama has to do above all is find a way to focus on the economy--which is voters' main concern--and to do so in a way that reflects his best abilities and deepest beliefs, and that is cognizant of the obstacles he faces as an African American candidate. To begin with, that means Obama cannot run as a Huey Long-style red meat populist. That's not who he is, anyway. And in making promises, he has to be careful to avoid endorsing programs that could be interpreted as irresponsible acts of tax-and-spend liberalism. He can propose a detailed plan for national health insurance once he is elected. For the moment, he should avoid anything that appears to require new taxes, or that appears to send a lot of money to inner-cities.
So Judis is proposing that Obama wait until after the election before raising taxes and instituting massive new spending programs. Thank you, John Judis, for giving us a heads up on a possible Obama campaign strategy about conning the voters into thinking he won't raise taxes or spending when that is exactly what he plans to do. You might have proposed what you think are good suggestions for what is ailing the patient but in doing so, you might have poisoned his campaign with your cynical "cure."
