As most of the media projected doom and gloom kvetching over their predicted negative aspects of President Donald Trump's tariffs, there was a rather contrarian view on this subject from a very surprising source: Nahal Toosi, Politico's senior foreign affairs correspondent.
She conceded that the tariffs could ultimately turn out to be successful as she wrote on Saturday in "Why Trump May Get Away With His Tariff Trauma."
Has Toosi been somehow red-pilled? Not likely since as recently as last December she attempted via her reporting to get the incoming Trump administration hopelessly entangled in the Syria mess. However, whatever the motivation, it is very interesting that she diverged sharply from the prevailing media narrative on the subject of tariffs.
As President Donald Trump announced historically high tariffs across the world this week, I expected a number of affected governments to rapidly and collectively fight back.
Instead, with the exception of China and a few scattered reprisals from allies, we’re seeing mainly cautious reactions. Foreign officials are talking about “calibrated” responses and keeping a “cool head.” Some are clearly hoping diplomacy will persuade Trump to back off some or many of his tariffs.
Kudos to Toosi for conceding she was wrong on an outcome she expected. But wait ...There's MORE!
In conversations with diplomats, economists and former U.S. officials, I asked why. Weren’t they concerned this muddled, cautious global reaction would be too weak to persuade Trump to change course, or even embolden him to get tougher?
But these experts argued that there are compelling reasons many governments are not acting fast or in unison — not the least of which is that the world’s countries are not good at collective action, and many believe they have a better shot at accomplishing more, for themselves at least, if they avoid escalating the fight with Trump.
Besides, it’s not at all clear if any moves by other countries will deter Trump’s tariff mania.
One motive for not acting in unison against Trump's tariffs as most of the media believed (and hoped) would happen is that there are benefits for being among the first to make a deal and negatives for being among the last to come to an agreement as Toosi discovered:
Many countries are still trying to sift through the details of Trump’s announced tariffs, but they have come to accept that he is going to tariff the world somehow. So they’re also looking for ways to negotiate a better deal than others.
“I can’t be the last one to reach a deal with Trump, because if I’m the last one, then I’m the one who’s going to get screwed,” the foreign diplomat said. Like others, the diplomat was granted anonymity to be candid about a sensitive issue. “If I’m the first one to reach the deal, then it might be the most advantageous possible thing, and compared to other countries, I’ll be better off. And so my trade will suffer relatively less.”
...Affected countries “think they can, basically, over the next couple months, quietly negotiate. They’ll make a couple of concessions, maybe on trade, maybe on defense, maybe on other things, and things will get adjusted,” the former official said.
And as Toosi revealed, make sure you are among the first to deal with Trump on tariffs, NOT the last. Oh, and thank you, Nahal Toosi, for revealing Trump's method to what much of the media labels as his madness.
