AP Cheers on Democrats for Upcoming Midterms

July 14th, 2006 2:09 PM
In a poll of only "registered" voters, the Associated Press warns that "Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November."

Right On has an analysis of the poll.

The latest poll from the AP tells us that “Most Americans Plan to Vote for Democrats”. According to the poll, registered voters are tired of a Republican Congress and are willing to reverse control by a margin of 3 to 1.

The AP polled 789 registered voters which side they would vote for and of those questioned, Democrats were chosen 51 to 40 percent.

There’s a problem with such polls though… registered voters do not always vote, ESPECIALLY during mid-term elections. The same problem occurred in 2004 when registered voters were polled and a comfortable lead for John Kerry was projected. If you’re going to poll people for an accurate sampling, poll LIKELY voters. States keep voting records… you find people with a reliable record of voting and you poll THEM. Those are the people who you will see in line on voting day. Just because you’re registered, does not mean you will vote.

The second problem was that the poll was too broad for so few people polled. Simply asking a couple hundred people what PARTY they’re most likely to vote for and then broadcasting that “MOST AMERICANS” are likely to vote Democrat is not accurate. Poll a wide range of likely voters in EVERY state, asking specifics on which CANDIDATE they will be voting for and you’ll have a much clearer picture and a much less likely chance of being surprised on Election day.