First we had a former national chairman of the Democratic National Committee laughing over the effect of Hurricane Gustav hitting New Orleans would have on Republicans as they prepared to hold their convention this week. Now we have a writer for The New Republic, Nate Silver, worried in the other direction in an article titled, "How Gustav Could Benefit the Republicans." Silver lists the ways he perceives that Republicans could benefit from this storm:
1. Allows McCain to Appear Magnanimous. By potentially delaying or canceling his "date" at the GOP convention, McCain appears as though he is giving something up to tend to the Gulf Coast. Sympathetic and neutral-to-sympathetic media outlets may view this as underscoring McCain's "America First" theme.
And if McCain didn't delay the GOP convention, the MSM would have been screeching about how "heartless" Republicans just don't care about people.
2. Lowers Expectations Bar. The selection of Sarah Palin as the VP nominee has forced the GOP to shift abruptly from a "Ready to Lead" theme to an "America First" theme. While it is difficult to say whether one of these themes was intrinsically stronger than the other, odds are that a lot of speeches had to be re-engineered, probably rendering them less effective upon delivery. Gustav, however, may give the GOP a built-in "excuse" for more off-the-cuff, hastily-organized speeches.
I'm not even sure what Silver is saying here but perhaps he is microanalyzing his perceived politics of this hurricane a bit too much.
3. Removes the Bush problem. The further Mr. 30% is from St. Paul, the better off the Republicans will be.
Perhaps we better keep Ms 9%, Nancy Pelosi and the rest of Congress well away as well.
4. Do-Over. Americans have short memories, and a relatively more successful response to Gustav could allow the GOP to argue that it has redeemed itself for the mistake of Katrina.
Maybe it never occurs to Silver that the GOP would just prefer not to politicize hurricanes.
5. Crisis Mentality May Benefit McCain. By appearing in New Orleans, and perhaps even delivering his acceptance speech from there, McCain will have the opportunity to appear "presidential". Rather than asserting to that he is ready to lead -- an assertion that was undermined the the selection of Palin -- he may hope to give the appearance of actually demonstrating such leadership.
A hurricane hits Louisiana and Silver uses it as a platform to launch a cheap potshop at Sarah Palin. However Silver is still far from letting go of his injection of Hurricane Gustav into politics:
This is not to say that there aren't risks to the Republicans. There is a fine line between responding to tragedy and appearing to exploit it, and any gaffes by McCain, Palin or Bush could quickly alter the narrative. Gustav has yet to pass through the Gulf of Mexico's oil platforms, and any sort of spill could substantially undermine support for their offshore drilling initiatives. Finally, there is an opportunity cost involved. Although the Republicans may appear to be effective in responding to Gustav, they may not be able to emphasize certain other themes which might also have been effective uses of their free national airtime.
I hate to be the one to inform Nate Silver but Gustav's winds were lower than expected so there will be little effect on the drilling platforms. As a result, no spills and no benefit to his beloved Democrats. The hurricane has passed inland, causing less damage than expected. Normally such a storm story shouldn't intrude into politics but Silver just can't let go with his microanalysis:
What should the Democrats to in response? They face some of the same risks that the Republicans do in terms of appearing to exploiting tragedy -- at present, in fact, Mr. Obama appears inclined to avoid creating a political spectacle of any kind on the Gulf Coast. However, it is imperative that they emphasize McCain's marginal track record on hurricane-relief and hurricane-protection measures. A riskier tact, which would probably need to be carried out through carefully-disciplined surrogates, would be to suggest that McCain only cares about such disasters when it is politically opportune for him to do so. Alternatively, Obama could attempt to preempt McCain by championing bipartisan relief and recovery efforts -- whether carried out through legislation or other means like volutneerism -- and asking (or challenging) McCain to join him.
Hey Nate, how about if in the future we just replace the Weather Channel's Jim Cantori with a team of political pundits whenever a hurricane hits the coast?
—P.J. Gladnick is a freelance writer and creator of the DUmmie FUnnies blog.



















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didn't take long
September 1, 2008 - 16:40 ET by candanceHubby and I were saying yesterday that if everything with Gustav goes a lot better, Republicans can seize on a chance to redeem themselves and expose Kathleen Blanco for the idiot she was.
Brilliant move to turn the convention into a charity campaign. Makes Republicans look like they really are putting the people first.
Talk about spin
September 1, 2008 - 16:51 ET by Cool ArrowIf the Gustav situation looks bad, they're calling it God's judgement.
If it looks like the situation is under control, the Republicans are using a near disaster to make political hay.
The Dems really can have it both ways.
Rocky & Bullwinkle '08
Funny isnt it...
September 1, 2008 - 18:44 ET by HeavyChevythe bulk of the libs don't believe in God unti they think they can use him against us, then its "god this and god that."
"9 out of 10 doctors agree that flag burning is the number one killer of liberals."
If Democrats had been in
September 1, 2008 - 16:50 ET by motherbeltIf Democrats had been in charge last time...
Oh, wait, they were!!!!
Well, OK, we'll talk on the federal level.....
If there had been a Democrat President last time, and the Democrat convention was this week, Silver and TNR would not be "worrying" about how it might benefit them, they would be plotting and advising the Democrats on how to benefit from it!
Well, hello everyone and
September 1, 2008 - 17:06 ET by BuxomAnnieMcGreggorWell, hello everyone and welcome to this hour's Weather/Political update. As you can see here, we have a low pressure front moving in from the south which may produce lower voting turnout for the Republicans in this region with a little precipitation. Now in the Rockies we have a bit of a cold front moving in on us in the next couple of hours which might produce a stronger Republican yield at the voting booth... but, heh heh... not to worry out there 'cause there's a tropical storm brewing .... tropical storm Ms Palin, which is part of this High Pressure System from the left over here trying to stave off any vote for the mother of all conservative upswings this political season. Stay with us next as we explore the exciting effect that AGW has on the mating rituals of the average progressive in the lower 48.
I'm BuxomAnnieMcGreggor ...and I approve this message!
BAM.... LMAO...now that
September 1, 2008 - 17:14 ET by bigtimerBAM....
LMAO...now that post of yours is precious....
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
Bigtimer... you are always
September 1, 2008 - 17:23 ET by BuxomAnnieMcGreggorBigtimer... you are always way too kind.... and very generous with the complements. Thanx! (oh... and as my Brit friends might say in light of a brewing storm,"It's frightful out there dearie, don't forget your rubbers!")
I'm BuxomAnnieMcGreggor ...and I approve this message!
BAM... Just sayin' what I
September 1, 2008 - 17:31 ET by bigtimerBAM...
Just sayin' what I mean.
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
M c Cain is running a
September 1, 2008 - 17:09 ET by jkwtradingM c Cain is running a professional comapaign which is always done step by step by step..He will show the rookie Obama how its done like Lieberman showed his opponent in 06.
first show the opposite side using their own words in an all positive manner while negating his oppnent.That portion was done with TV ads during D's convention. place directly in front of the opposition an attempt to refute those facts (which he cannot and not look stupid) of the video. He already did that during their convention, now he builds his own case , and all we have to is watch the two masters of campaigns do it...Mc Cain and Lieberman..( yes that's why he is there as an old pro) they will dismantle the D's like tinker toys.
masters of amapaigns take negatives make them look positive.
M c Cain is running a
September 1, 2008 - 17:10 ET by jkwtradingM c Cain is running a professional comapaign which is always done step by step by step..He will show the rookie Obama how its done like Lieberman showed his opponent in 06.
first show the opposite side using their own words in an all positive manner while negating his oppnent.That portion was done with TV ads during D's convention. place directly in front of the opposition an attempt to refute those facts (which he cannot and not look stupid) of the video. He already did that during their convention, now he builds his own case , and all we have to is watch the two masters of campaigns do it...Mc Cain and Lieberman..( yes that's why he is there as an old pro) they will dismantle the D's like tinker toys.
masters of campaigns take negatives make them look positive.
M c Cain is running a
September 1, 2008 - 17:11 ET by jkwtradingM c Cain is running a professional campaign which is always done step by step by step..He will show the rookie Obama how its done like Lieberman showed his opponent in 06.
first show the opposite side using their own words in an all positive manner while negating his oppnent.That portion was done with TV ads during D's convention. place directly in front of the opposition an attempt to refute those facts (which he cannot and not look stupid) of the video. He already did that during their convention, now he builds his own case , and all we have to is watch the two masters of campaigns do it...Mc Cain and Lieberman..( yes that's why he is there as an old pro) they will dismantle the D's like tinker toys.
masters of campaigns take negatives make them look positive.
Well hell yes it will
September 1, 2008 - 17:45 ET by 10ksnookerNow that the dunderhead Democrat in Louisiana is history and they elected a Republican, Louisiana will be find. The military precision of the evacuation went well. The slavering of the drive by media looking for death and destruction -- check, they were all there looking.
So now comes the wrap up tomorrow. And then the praise, just in time for Wednesday's Gov Palin speech ... How cool is that?
See there really is a God, and he is on the Republicans side.......
With 5 Republican "Coastal state" Governors...
September 1, 2008 - 17:56 ET by JayTeeWith 5 republican Governors taking care of business, and the Citizens of Louisiana kicking the Democrat "Katrina" governor out of office, I don't see why Bush was to blame in the first place.
As far as Senators go, they pretty much don't have ANY influence unless they are "coastal" Senators. BHO and company, are just observers, including McCain.
Power to the States !!
The Republican Revolution will not be Televised
Sorry Candance
September 1, 2008 - 18:23 ET by cocodrieBlanco is not an idiot. To be an idiot a person needs some degree of brains. Kathleen Blanco has a natural vacuum inside her head. Possibly the only one occurring in nature. She could not even qualify as an apprentice idiot.
cocodrie
September 1, 2008 - 19:01 ET by rb usmcGlad to see you made it through the storm. We also faired well.
Wow....great!
September 1, 2008 - 19:07 ET by BlondeTo see you all back here.
Adios, Gustav!
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
Thanks rb
September 1, 2008 - 19:17 ET by cocodrieI am 100% ok. have to clean up a bit, thats all. I stayed during Katrina also, thats why i think so little of Blanco, Aaron Broussard, Willy Wonka Nagin and Refrigerator Jefferson. They all hightailed it out of here without looking back. While every available boat, half-track and helicopter were rescuing people from rooftops, Refrigerator commandeered a halftrack and a boat to retrieve papers from his house. I guess those papers were more important than people's lives. I guess I am a little bitter about these things.
Glad to see ya'll did
September 1, 2008 - 19:33 ET by danboGlad to see ya'll did ok. We also stayed. We had some flooding along the coast. But nothing like Katrina. I haven't gotten closer to the beach or Waveland yet. So I don't know the extent of damage there.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
These peope are mad out of
September 1, 2008 - 18:53 ET by Clear thinkerThese peope are mad out of their minds.
Boy I'm glad I'm not a Dem. More Crazy Hurricane Gustav Comments.
Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goal
Gustav
September 1, 2008 - 19:06 ET by KansasgirlThese people are shameless. Exactly why their indoctrination needs destroyed.
nws.noaa.gov - your tax dollars at work
September 1, 2008 - 19:11 ET by Free StinkerHere is a link to the National Weather Service Radar Loop of the storm if you're interested in that sort of thing.
Really...
September 1, 2008 - 19:28 ET by FoolicanYou'd be surprised.
I'm glad that our tax dollars are actually going to something remotely informative.
They're right to be worried
September 1, 2008 - 19:28 ET by Vivaldi5I think Nate is right to be worried.
This could be a winner for the GOP, friends.
It was a stroke of genius
September 1, 2008 - 20:59 ET by cocodrieIt was a stroke of genius for Bush to conjure up a hurricane just to benefit McCain. I wonder how he did it.
cocodrie... shhh...the
September 1, 2008 - 21:06 ET by bigtimercocodrie...
shhh...the handy-dandy Rove Machine is at the ready when needed don't ya' know...
Btw...Very glad you and yours are fairing well today...
"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh
Thank God everything is
September 1, 2008 - 21:11 ET by cocodrieThank God everything is A-OK. pray for those that caught the worst of it.
Odds on favorite
September 1, 2008 - 21:15 ET by NonanonWhat are the odds the DNCSM will give Nagin and other Democrats the credit for the outcome of Gustav being much better than Katrina, where all of the blame went to Bush?
Odds on favorite
September 1, 2008 - 21:21 ET by NonanonDouble post deleted