AP: Unemployment Will Be '7.9 Percent By Election Day' Boosting 'Obama's Prospects'
There's been a lot of bad economic news lately, but the folks at the Associated Press don't care.
In their view - or at least in the opinion of those they surveyed - "[h]iring through the rest of 2012...will be strong enough to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day" boosting "Obama's prospects in November":
That's the view that emerges from an Associated Press survey of 32 leading economists who foresee a gradually brighter jobs picture. Despite higher gas prices, Europe's debt crisis and a weak housing market, they think the economy has entered a "virtuous cycle" in which hiring boosts consumer spending, which fuels more hiring and spending.
The survey results come before a report Friday on hiring during April. The April report is eagerly awaited because employers added surprisingly few jobs in March. That result contributed to fears that the economy might struggle to sustain its recovery.
But the economists think the recovery will manage to reduce unemployment to 7.9 percent by Election Day from 8.2 percent in March.
Falling unemployment would boost President Barack Obama's prospects in November.
This seems a very bold prediction given the very disappointing unemployment numbers in March when employers added a meager 120,000 employees to payrolls well below expectations.
On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP also released a lousy forecast for April as reported by MarketWatch:
Private-sector employment increased 119,000 in April, the lowest result since September, led by the service-providing sector and small and medium businesses, according to ADP. The April gain is down from average monthly employment increases of about 200,000 in the first quarter of 2012, according to ADP.
“This deceleration seems consistent with other incoming data,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which produces the report for ADP. “There is some evidence that unusually warm weather boosted employment during the winter months, with a ‘payback’ now coming due.”
Prakken added that the low pace of private-sector growth means it’s unlikely that the national unemployment rate declined, unless there was a substantial contraction in the labor force.
Who's right?
As the late financial commentator Ed Hart used to say, we'll know in the fullness of time.
Of course, no matter what the economic news is, the folks at AP will figure out a way to spin it positively for the president they adore.
- Noel Sheppard's blog
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Comments
Well, not entirely...
Submitted by c5then on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:23am.
What they are saying is that with all the folks falling off of the "unemployment rolls" because their benefits are expiring, and with the media not reporting this, the AP will be hyping the "falling" unemployment numbers to goose Obama's poll numbers and help him win re-election.
Check out today's unemployment numbers when they are reported... The expectation is for them to be at about 380,000. Yesterday we learned that the private sector hired about 119,000 in the whole month of April.
So we are hiring 120,000 people a month and firing more than 1,200,000 a month later. Yeah, that sounds like a recovery to me.
Madison and Jefferson and Franklin built a Republic - Roberts killed it!
Using their term... the fix
Submitted by kg on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:27am.
Using their term... the fix is already in.
"DumbAssity of Dope"
Already, the media is dutifully throwing it out there
Submitted by gwalt on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:25am.
The media will go into full billion dollar PR overdrive to tout what a great economy this is in October. Unless we start calling them out on it, by face and name. Start with contraception George on GMA.
Now excuse me, I have to take my dogs out because they need to take an "Obama" in my Obama supporting neighbors yard. No cleanup needed. As long as I call It (excrement) Obama, they will love it!
"A lot of briefing for a 2 hr. special with Dan Rather. Saw the show & wonder why we bothered". Ronald Reagan
Who cares about the economy???
Submitted by NC Cop on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:25am.
Didn't you see Obama on Jimmy Fallon??
Man, he's cool.
AP is correct. The official
Submitted by forest on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:26am.
AP is correct. The official unemployment rate will be 7.9% or a little lower by election day.
All the rest of that noise about hiring and jobs has nothing to do with it. The number is going down to 7.9% regardless of any facts. If hiring is bad, the participation rate will continue to plummet to compensate.
Calling in sick
Submitted by CO2Maker on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:32am.
Hey, Boss
Yeah, I think I'm going to be sick next Friday and I probably won't get over it until Monday.
The official unemployment rate in CT just dropped to 7.9%
Submitted by ctyankee on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 5:37pm.
The Federal policy for states with unemployment under 8% is to shorten the extension of "emergency benefits" by 7 weeks. The extension was 20 weeks in CT but is now 13 weeks as of April. I know because I have been on the unemployment rolls for the past 8 months; the extension starts after the first 6 months.
The result is to drop people from the "unemployment" rolls 7 weeks sooner. This has the effect of reducing the unemployment rate further. It looks like I will be dropped from the list of "unemployed" in June.
I am currently underemployed and report my part time income to the Labor Department. My work indicates that for every US Citizen hired in the IT field, they hire 8 or 9 candidates with H1B work visas.
If the White House reads this post, I am afraid I will be off the rolls or audited sooner. Do you hear me Mr. President?
There they go again....
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:45am.
Reporting their wishes as fact.....
And within
Submitted by fivestring_assassin on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 8:50am.
one year of his re-election the rate will be back up to over 9%
I trust nothing coming out of tis White House
One year?!?
Submitted by Newsbubba on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:10am.
They will announce whatever number they need to for the RBFSOB to be reelected. Then right after the election, if he loses, it will be "revised, " and if he wins there will no longer be any need to share that info with the moron former voters. We will begin to become a full blown Fascist state.
Obama & his media pets are cooking the books
Submitted by Slyrr on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 9:00am.
The media and politicians are cooking the books and everyone knows it. Obama and his goons have taken more than 800,000 people (who THEY have put out of work) and just erased them from the books so they won't screw up 'his' numbers.
Just because Obama and his thugs SAY these people don't exist anymore doesn't mean they've disappeared. They still have lives, families, hopes and dreams. They're suffering, scared and angry. And they know which President put them out of work. Obama stole their jobs and ruined their lives - but they can still vote.
And come November, they're going to make sure Obama can't ignore them anymore.
Come hell or high water....
Submitted by JLin on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 9:59am.
LOL. Those books will be smoking hot by October. The real unemployment is closer to 11%, with lousy under-employment more like 20%.
Dogs?
Submitted by Joe W. on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:27am.
Obama STILL ate a dog......there's that, anyway....
[crickets]
Submitted by CO2Maker on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:36am.
Where's PETA when you need 'em?
Then, the figures will be adjusted upwards.....
Submitted by almostacowboy on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:56am.
"near" the actual level as they have been since he took power.
I don't care what the
Submitted by MightyMouth on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:37am.
I don't care what the unemployment rate is on election days as long as at least two incompetent boobs get canned that day!
Boobs-be-gone
Submitted by Pilgrim1949 on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 1:37pm.
Yeah, I also want to see her husband, Lunchbox-for-brains Joe and his wife all kicked out the door on their tushies to the curb, too!!
Call it a permanent foursome for future golf....
...to help O.J. finally find the one-armed man that killed his wife.
"Ye canne change the laws of physics....." but some politicians believe that with the right legislation you can pretend they don't really apply to your own pet projects...
In spite of Obama...
Submitted by Order270 on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:43am.
...market forces will squeeze out an occasional improvement. But make no mistake about it, Obama is at war with the American way of life. His first step to socialism is bankrupting the nation. Then the government can implement martial law and assume complete control. Four more years of this and we can say goodbye to the land of the free.
Countermove
Submitted by HardRightTurn on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 11:51am.
The unemployment number can be driven higher by anti-Obama forces by mass employer temporary layoffs and the registration of the long-term unemployed for jobs this coming September through October.
Consider it like voting twice. Once at the unemployment office, again at the voting booth.
To more fully comprehend the Left, one must read “Leftism As Psychopathy” by John Ray, M.A., Ph.D. Caution, it might scare you a little bit.
http://jonjayray.tripod.com/psycho.html
How?
Submitted by djaymick on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 12:31pm.
And how do they expect the unemployment rate to fall that low? Would it come from people who left the market? Would it require another stimulus infusion? Or are we believing the "economists" who later tell us how "unexpectedly" their predictions were off?
High unemployment?? No problem!
Submitted by SeniorD on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 12:34pm.
It's fair to say that, if The Inept One and his sycophantic creatures in the Federal Regime want to lower the unemployment rate, just change the definition or the numbers. 9.7% you're looking in the mirror! It's 7.9%!!!!
Besides, unemployment is simply being on the bench until the game changes.
All about the cost of energy, and the taxes that go with it
Submitted by upcountrywater on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 2:02pm.
Here is a painfully blatant chart....
Two price run-ups one from 2008 when McRino, ran... Now another one when O'bama is runnin.
For the last 6 months crude (average price) has been above 100 bucks... the last 2 months above 105 bucks...
No other numbers are nearly as important....
I am amazed that every day, personal and public debt... continues to grow.... and that ability to go further into debt may run the employment numbers down, yea take out a loan to pay a worker to sit in the shop, for a job that may happen.... .
'Bout time for berry to bust out some price controls, like his pal Hugo...
You Didn't Build That.
What was happening
Submitted by jon_torlin on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 2:38pm.
But aren't those two totally different situations going on at the time? Back in 08, the value of the dollar hasn't been as bad as it is now, not to mention the price of gold. Not to mention unemployment was down(when people really DID have jobs and not these bogus numbers).
Plus there's the active war against drilling for oil(a la the illegal moratorium) and so on, which we didn't have back in 08.
Not only is this bogus potus anti-business, he's anti-energy, anti-American, anti-a-lot-of-things. Even BJ Clinton didn't actively and blatantly try to kill this country like this fraud is doing.
-Jon
We are exporting gasoline (those evil high sulfer fuels) today.
Submitted by upcountrywater on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 4:00pm.
From private land, the oil flows...soon to pass California and Alaska in BBL/day... great news, don't whisper that to the dog muncher.
Gold and energy was at a high in the Carter era.... Reagan deregulated the oil companies and the price of energy dropped.... Gold is dug out of the ground, it takes energy to do that, when energy is cheap so is everything else.
Here is a chart that has both prices and volume...
The Carter oil spike and the Bush spike.
That chart came from here...
I guess I'm saying is that high oil use equals low unemployment.
I started my business in 1983, It grew and grew...
I was doing great business in the halcyon days of 2005... now not so well.
Fees fines and taxes is why gas is much higher at the pump today, even tho the bbl price is less than the peak in 2008.
And the weak dollar also helps...
You Didn't Build That.
HBS
Submitted by Unsane on Thu, 05/03/2012 - 10:43pm.
Cheer up! Just look at His picture on this page, featuring what got Him elected - that, that...oh so HOT, BEAUTIFUL SMILE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"CONSUMED DEMOCRACY RETURNS A SOCIALIST REGIME" - Slayer, "Fictional Reality", from Divine Intervention (1994)