How Will Media Report GOP Beating Democrats in New Gallup Poll?

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A rather stunning Gallup poll was released Wednesday showing Republicans moving ahead of Democrats in which Party registered voters support in next year's Congressional elections.

As Gallup reported in its summary, this is a rare occurrence in the almost sixty years since the polling organization has been tracking generic voter preferences for the House of Representatives.

Given media's downplaying of the significance of last week's election results, it's going to be fascinating to watch how they spin these numbers (h/t Byron York):

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Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.

Much as in last week's elections, Independent voters have shown a huge rightward shift:

In the latest poll, independent registered voters favor the Republican candidate by 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain similar loyalty from their bases, with 91% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.

Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown, from a 1-point advantage in July to the current 22-point gap.

According to Gallup, these numbers are tremendously significant:

The overall results would predict a likely strong Republican showing if the House elections were held today. Though the registered-voter results reported here speak to the preferences of all eligible voters, voter turnout is crucial in determining the final outcome of midterm elections. Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time.

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters' preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats.

The Washington Examiner's Byron York agreed:

It's an extraordinary turnaround for the GOP. Last July, Democrats held a six-point lead. Last December, Democrats held a 15-point lead. At one point in 2007, Democrats held a 23-point lead, and for all of that year, 2007, Democrats held a double-digit lead. [...]

Indeed, for even Gallup concluded:

Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans seem well-positioned to win back some of their congressional losses in 2006 and 2008. Independents are increasingly coming to prefer the Republican candidate for Congress, and now favor the GOP by 22 points. Political conditions could still shift between now and Election Day to create a more favorable environment for Democratic candidates, but a Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters has been a sign of a strong Republican showing at the polls in the coming election.

Quite so as Gallup pointed out earlier in its summary:

Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Fascinating.

Potentially more so will be seeing how this gets reported in the next 24 hours by the Obama-loving media.

For instance, CBSNews.com's piece on this subject chose to ignore just how rare it is for the Republicans to lead the Democrats in Gallup's generic Congressional poll, and that the last two times they did it meant huge victories for the GOP.

Instead, CBSNews.com offered reasons why the poll might not mean anything:

It should be noted that while this kind of poll shows momentum for Republicans ahead of the 2010 elections, the poll does not take into account specific preferences within a congressional district or for particular candidates. The 2010 elections consist of separate House and Senate campaigns rather than an overall national vote.

In addition, Gallup notes that this poll did not factor in the anticipated voter turnout a year from now. The poll release says turnout models will be included in future polls as the 2010 elections get closer in time.

For his part, ABC's George Stephanopoulos was quick to call the poll an outlier:

Our polling director Gary Langer points out that Gallup is the only national poll in the last month that has the GOP ahead. The others show Democrats holding a 6-12 point lead.

So for now, Gallup is the outlier.  Which doesn't mean, of course, that it isn't a harbinger.

Will that be the take of others who bother reporting the surprising results of this poll?

Stay tuned.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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Conservatives need to

Conservatives need to further recruit black and Latino voters into the movement.  Also, those in the welfare socialist slave state, and their kids and grandkids, have the most to gain from a good education, good job, free market with simple regulations that do not inhibit one from starting a business. That is the key to growth.  Educate why the conservative model is superior to the slave social state that they are forcing down our throats.  Instantly conservatives will have a long term majority.  However they must remain strictly ON-COURSE with SMALLer government.

And as to the graphic of the elephant pushing with the Donkey, I think the elephant could lift the Donkey up with its trunk and tusks and body slam it to the ground.  And then trample it for good measure.  Get the "poor" to realize they are the slaves of the government state and they will be fighting mad conservatives.

M-B

Spin the numbers, no problem

Years ago when the USA and the USSR had a contest.

The USA finished first, USSR finished second.

This is how the MSM in USSR reported it.

USSR finishes second, USA finishes second to last.

State controlled health care ! music video.

→ What a surprise!

Obama proimises to, and exhibits uncanny success in, bankrupting the country, and people lose trust in him?

He's detached from the realities of the market while Americans have to make personal money decisions daily.

LYDSEXICS UNTIE!

MSM will report it this

MSM will report it this way:

1. flawed polling methodology
2. oversampling R's
3. cash paid to respondents to favor R's
4. a one time-fluke
5. a total lie
6. Olbermannekin will declare George Gallup "worse person of the year"

No citizen's right to life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, or property is safe as long as Obama is President of the United States.

Two word answer..

They won't

X

America is still RACIST!!!

The MSM will never get it

Not even if the GOP seizes veto-proof majorities in both houses (not an impossibility, should the Hopenchange express continue its reckless course...the Olbserletermann Media will never acknowledge it.

Awake the sleeping giant...and that giant is WE THE PEOPLE!

Heard about this early this

Heard about this early this morning.

Delicious.

Now if we don't waste it on RINOs we may have a good shot at taking this country back from the brink of what I see as disastor coming down the road if we don't.

Keeping my fingers crossed...plus we have the best advocates working for us daily...Reid, Pelosi, the Prez and their Bully-Pulpit...the msm of all venues.

To them I say thank you...please keep up the good work.

As Barack says...Excellent!

'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart

Does this factor in ACORN,

Does this factor in ACORN, union and dead voters?

Please correct the graphic, the GOP elephant has no tusks or cajones.

well said DD

Succinct and accurate.

 I don't know entirely

 I don't know entirely what the poll portends, but I do know that I'd rather have the Rs take the country back all at once than on a  piecemeal basis.  If the Dems are going to create a huge mess, I want them to fully own it; they may as well control everything.  If the Rs take back the Senate, the Dems will then blame everything on them.  This is their M.O.  They blamed this current economic mess on Bush, and continue to do so right up to this very minute.  I don't want them to continue down this road in any way while they can blame it on someone else.  The blame Bush mantra is not going to work anymore; let's not give them some other scapegoat.

 

 

Noel

Looks like

 CBSnews has it 

USA today has it

ABCnews has it

 

Looks like all them have one thing in common and are show  the Democrats are losing independent voters. Hmm those independent voters might be more important that some thought.

 

It could be positive...

Even Rick Sanchez is starting to report the NEWS on how the Liberal Dems are on the take with healthcare.

 http://us.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2009/11/11/nr.sanchez.money.unions.cnn

http://us.cnn.com/video/?/video/bestoftv/2009/11/11/nr.sanchez.health.care.cnn