Laurie Kellman, call your office, check your e-mail, and tap in to your Twitter.

The Associated Press reporter didn't get the memo that recession is supposedly over, and that at a minimum you shouldn't be writing as if it will be with us for a while. She also erred in citing the weak economy as a bad thing for Democrats. The New York Times told us about a week ago that a bad economy is a good thing for Democrats who want to pass state-controlled health care and other freedom-restricting agenda items, because a bad economy increases personal insecurity. They're such pals of the little guy, you see.

Both busts against the conventional media wisdom are in Kellman's brief item from late this morning (bolds are mine):

Health care issues: Hold off for a better economy?

UPDATE--Nov. 4 6:35 AM: Mike Was Right

When Mike Allen appeared on Morning Joe today, the very first thing he did was  tweak Joe Scarborough over the 3:1 odds, described below, that Joe had offered to those wanting to bet against Doug Hoffman.  Joe responded that no one, including Allen,  had taken up the bet.  While Allen apparently didn't plunk down any dollars, it must be mentioned that at the end of the original segment, the Politico correspondent did say "we're in" on Scarborough's offer.

So let me acknowledge that in calling the race in the 23rd a toss-up, Mike Allen was right--not ridiculous.  

Looking back, my two cents say the turning point might well have been the under-reported fact that when Hoffman, who does not live in the district, was interviewed by the Watertown newspaper, he demonstrated surprising unfamiliarity with issues important to the district including a major highway proposal and changes to the St. Lawrence Seaway.  Not the kind of thing that gets national headlines, but important to people who live and work in the area.  Candidates everywhere, take note.

The results should also be a rebuke to the New York Republican establishment.  Remember that Dede Scozzafava was foisted on Republicans as their candidate by party chairmen meeting behind closed doors.  If instead there had been a primary, Republicans would almost surely have chosen someone who would have won this race.

--------------------

When you're an MSMer, you're an MSMer all the way--even when faced with facts that might make you like, well, ridiculous . . .

Mike Allen, appearing on Morning Joe, has declared the NY-23rd race a "real toss-up" despite a new poll from a respected organization showing Doug Hoffman with a 17-point lead.

The claim by Allen, Politico's chief political correspondent, was so absurd that, on the spot, host Joe Scarborough offered 3:1 odds to Allen and anyone else wanting to place a few kopeks on Dem Bill Owens.

Oops!

Markos Moulitsas, founder of the Daily Kos, has discovered that his endorsement can be  political poison. Such was the case with his endorsement at the beginning of this month of the very liberal Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, in the New York 23rd CD special election:

Club for Growth darling Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party line, and has even garnered the endorsement of Fred Thompson. The guy has legitimate traction, fueled by the fact that Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, is actually the most liberal candidate in the race. (Heck, she has run on the very liberal Working Families Party ballot line in the past.)

Sure, she is a Republican, and opposes the public option. But she's been willing to raise taxes when budgets require it, and is to the left of most Democrats on social issues (including supporting gay marriage). That's why conservatives are panicked about her -- for a party that is becoming more regional, more conservative, more ideologically rigid, Scozzafava's brand of moderate conservatism is grating. Hence, Hoffman has a real shot at not just playing spoiler and undermining the GOP candidate's chances, but also of potentially winning.

As a congresswoman, she could either move even more to the left to properly represent her progressive-trending district and be a pain in the side of the GOP caucus (they have nothing like our Blue Dogs), or Democrats can field a real Democrat to challenge her in 2010.

In late September, Florida Congressional Democrat Alan Grayson earned attention and apparently fawning support from the far left by describing the Republican Party's health care plan, as "1. Don't get sick; 2. And if you do get sick, 3. die quickly."

Grayson's supposed apology for these over-the-top remarks on the House Floor -- remarks that would surely have earned him censure and relentless media coverage had he been a Republican criticizing a Democrat -- consisted of saying, as paraphrased by Clay Waters of NewsBusters, that his "remorse was not for Republicans, rather for the dead .... comparing the existing health care system to the Holocaust."

This is from a guy whose party has several go-to health care "experts" and others (e.g., Zeke the Bleak Emanuel, John "Sterilize The Water Supply" Holdren) who advocate what Sarah Palin correctly characterized as "death panels."

Little did we know that in September, Grayson made himself a House ogre with his floor remarks, he hurled a grievously sexist and offensive insult at a senior Federal Reserve adviser. Wait until you see what he called Linda Robertson on the apparently syndicated but apparently lightly heeded Alex Jones show (relevant audio begins at about 0:35 of the 1:43 YouTube video; Warning - Objectionable language follows):

If her Evening News gig doesn't work out, maybe Katie Couric will seek work as a Republican strategerist . . .

Couric dabbled in her possible new profession in her Notebook segment yesterday, offering some carefully considered advice to the GOP.  According to Katie, Republicans should get the focus off Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin.  They're nothing but "fringe" elements, "sideshows" that drive people out of the Republican Big Tent.

Mike Allen has dumped on Doug Hoffmann's candidacy.  Again.  Yesterday, as noted here, Allen said Republicans would be "crazy" and "suicidal" to support the conservative in the special congressional election in New York's 23rd CD.   Today, Politico's chief political correspondent has claimed that a Hoffman victory would spell "chaos" in Republican ranks.

And check the video for Mike Barnicle making an elitist crack about the upstate NY district, and Chuck Todd trying to embarrass RNC Chairman Michael Steele . . .

Okay boys and girls. A bluebook exam question for you. What is the big excitement all about in the New York 23rd CD race that has captured the attention of the political world for the past week? I'll give you a really strong hint in the form of this observation from yesterday's Washington Post: "It is now a two-person race between Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens with Scozzafava fading badly."

Hmm. So you would think that any recent news story about that race would have to at least include a mention of the Conservative challenger Doug Hoffman who has surged to the lead in a couple of recent polls as the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, plunged to last place. Well, in the world of the New York Daily News, Doug Hoffman doesn't even exist. At least not in this story yesterday by Elizabeth Benjamin. She writes The Daily Politics but her article appears to be The Daily Politics of an alternate universe in which the contest in the 23rd CD is strictly between Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens. Here is her story about New York governor David Paterson endorsing Owens and how this affects the campaigns of both the Democrat and Republican candidates but not a certain person whose candidacy dare not speak its name...at least not by Benjamin in this article:

Want to be noticed by any one of the hosts that have a primetime show on MSNBC's weeknight lineup? Just figure out a way to make Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.  the subject matter, and there's an excellent chance either Ed Schultz, Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow will take a shot at it, or her, during their shows.

In the Oct. 25 Washington Post, George Will penned a column about Bachmann, outlining her ascendancy into the national spotlight, which told of her start in politics and how she grew to become reviled by the left. And it was just a matter time before one of the charming personalities on MSNBC made some sort of remarks about the column, albeit two days later. That came on Olbermann's Oct. 27 "Countdown" broadcast.

Where is Tina Fey now that we need her?

Martha Coakley is the front-runner for the Dem nomination for Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat.  In a recent debate, asked about her lack of foreign policy experience, the first credential Coakley offered in response was that "I have a sister who lives overseas, and she's been in England and now lives in the Middle East."

 (New poll update at bottom.)

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has written a story in his Morning Fix political news analysis that is sure to cause conniption fits over at the Daily Kos which endorsed "Republican" Dede Scozzafava in the New York 23rd CD race that has now grabbed the attention of the political world. The political news that Cillizza has reported looks great for Conservative Doug Hoffman, bad for Scozzafava, and very depressing for the Daily Kos (and Newt Gingrich):

The Iowa caucuses may be more than two years from now but a series of moves by potential Republican presidential contenders has turned a special election in New York's 23rd district into an early test of conservative bona fides.

In the last week three GOPers with an eye on 2012 -- former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin -- have weighed in on the race with Tpaw and Palin throwing their support behind Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman and Gingrich endorsing state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava.

(Polling and conversations with those close to the contest on both sides suggest it is now a two-person race between Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens with Scozzafava fading badly.)

Mike Allen might not be a Republican political strategist, but he tried playing one on TV today, telling the GOP it was "crazy" and "suicidal" to be supporting Doug Hoffman over Dede Scozzafava in a special congressional election in northern New York.

Politico's chief political correspondent offered his unsolicited advice on today's Morning Joe.

View video here.

Note to Politico: If you base a story on an outdated Daily Kos poll you could end up with egg on your face. This is pretty much what has happened in the past three days.

On Saturday your humble correspondent cited a Politico story of the day before by Josh Kraushaar in which he reported on Doug Hoffman continuing to lag behind in third place in the NY 23rd CD race:

The latest poll in the New York special election shows a close race, with Democrat Bill Owens leading Republican Dede Scozzafava 35 to 30 percent, with Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent.

This is a Politico congressional  race story that should have been labeled "WARNING: Read this story with a huge grain of salt." Why? First of all because the poll of the New York 23rd Congressional  District was mostly taken before the big events of this past week were well known there. And even more importantly, the source of the poll was the Daily Kos which endorsed the very liberal Republican in the race, Dede Scozzafava. However, before we go into how absurd this poll was, let us watch Josh Kraushaar of Politico get all breathless about this highly questionable story:

The latest poll in the New York special election shows a close race, with Democrat Bill Owens leading Republican Dede Scozzafava 35 to 30 percent, with Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent.

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll provides some encouraging news for Scozzafava, who remains in second place – and within striking distance of Owens – despite a week of bad publicity. It shows her leading Hoffman among Republican voters, 46 to 27 percent.

Over the past two weeks, three prominent White House officials have publicly come out and criticized Fox News by demeaning its status as a news outlet - White House Communications Director Anita Dunn, Senior Advisor David Axelrod and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. And today, the president himself commented on Fox News.

However, this hasn't gone unnoticed by members of Congress. Yesterday, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., commented on the inappropriate nature of the White House-instigated feud from the floor of the Senate. And on Oct. 22, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind. reacted to it from the floor of the House of Representatives.

"You know, the American people cherish our freedom of speech and a free and independent press," Pence said. "That's why I found this morning's headlines so troubling. Goaded on by a White House increasingly intolerant of criticism, lately the national media has taken aim at conservative commentators in radio and television - suggesting that they only speak for a small group of activists and even suggesting in one report today that Republicans in Washington are quote, ‘worried about their electoral effect.' Well, that's hogwash."

"Hello, 911? This is the Dede Scozzafava campaign. Could you send a police car over to the Elks Lodge? There is a reporter here asking our candidate uncomfortable questions. Thank you."

Something like this call went out last night when a reporter committed the "high crime" of asking Republican congressional candidate, Dede Scozzafava (endorsed by the Daily Kos), questions that she obviously felt very uneasy about answering. Scozzafava, who was recently the subject of an Open Thread here on NewsBusters, is running in the special election for the open seat in the NY 23rd congressional district. She was being questioned last night by John McCormack of the Weekly Standard when the police were called with a complaint about him for making Scozzafava uncomfortable with his probing questions. Here is how McCormack describes the scene:

Lowville, N.Y.
Tonight, Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate for the November 3 special election in the 23rd congressional district, spoke to about 100 Republicans at the Lewis County GOP dinner at the Elks Lodge 1605. After a dinner of turkey, mashed potatoes, and stuffing, Scozzafava fended off criticism that she wasn't as conservative as third-party candidate Doug Hoffman and urged her supporters to vote for her in order to keep her Democratic opponent Bill Owens from serving as a rubber stamp for Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama's agenda in Washington. It was a fairly typical evening--until the speech ended and someone with Scozzafava's campaign called the police. On me.

On Friday, NewsBusters reported the recent piece in the Wall Street Journal that lambasted TEA party protestors for demanding conservative Republicans to run in 2010.

An article from the NY Times on October 15 echoed that sentiment, claiming that opposition to ObamaCare was "demanded" by the "narrowed conservative base."

You see, Republicans don't oppose President Obama's agenda because they truly believe he is wrong. They're doing it to pander to rabid right-wingers.

The Times went on to explain how this could cost the GOP valuable moderates in the next election:

It probably wasn't totally unexpected, since the tally of time the on-air talent at MSNBC spends on Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., increases with every broadcast hour.

Bachmann, not one to hold back on expressing her opinions, has criticized MSNBC on not one, but two occasions recently. And one of those appearances, on Fox News' Oct. 7 "The O'Reilly Factor," she called her critics on the left-leaning network "personal stalkers, only they have TV shows." And that earned her the top spot on Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World" segment.

"But our winner, Michele Bachmann," Olbermann said, referring to the first place contestant, the "worst" person. "[Fox News host Bill O'Reilly], dimly aware of the world around him, asks her, ‘Now you are a pretty interesting politician, Congresswoman. You are second to Sarah Palin in far-left angst. You know, Sarah Palin leads the league, no doubt. But they're after you now. We hear it all the time, Michele Bachmann, she's this, she's that. How did you get into that wheelhouse?'"

Video below fold

Over the past two years, MSNBC - the so-called "place for politics" has had a fascination with the congresswoman from Minnesota's Sixth District.

And some of those attacks have been against her family, others borderline misogynistic. However, GOP Rep. Michelle Bachmann told a group of conservative bloggers at The Heritage Foundation on Oct. 6 she really wasn't concerned about MSNBC, and noted how poorly the network does in the ratings.

"Quite honestly, I don't even know anything about MSNBC," Bachmann said. "It's not a network that I watch and most of the American people agree with that assessment. They aren't watching it either. And that's why Fox's ratings - I mean it's like CNN, CNBC, MSNBC combined. I think Fox even exceeded one of the major networks last week. They're on the ascendency."

Has it really come to this? Is MSNBC so in the tank for the Democratic Party that it takes far-left documentary filmmaker Michael Moore to bring up malfeasance by a leading Democrat?

Moore appeared on MSNBC's Sept. 29 "Hardball" to promote his new film "Capitalism: A Love Story." With exception of "The Ed Show" fill-in host Lawrence O'Donnell noting the Senate Ethics Committee had cleared Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., of wrongdoing and only reprimanded him verbally, over the last couple of months, MSNBC's prime time shows have ignored a deal Dodd got on a mortgage with Countrywide. That is, until Moore brought it up.

"Chris Dodd may have a problem after being in this movie, I think," Matthews said.

Remember "Baghdad Bob," the Iraqi Information Minister Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf? Even with Iraqi forces in a full rout and American Marines just blocks away Baghdad Bob would completely deny the presence of U.S. troops in the Iraqi capitol.

Watching MSNBC's "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," on September 24 was reminiscent of Baghdad's Bob's press conferences. Olbermann asked Newsweek's Jonathan Alter, also an MSNBC political analyst, how "the GOP" would convince the public that the health care system "is not really in crisis" and that it does not need to be a priority compared to Afghanistan.  Turning right to page three of the current left-wing talking points, Alter used the opportunity to attack Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., for suggesting that the president is letting Afghanistan slide to curry favor for health care, by invoking George W. Bush.

"It's a pretty lame argument," Alter said. "I don't remember Jim DeMint saying when George W. Bush was proposing to reform Social Security a few years ago that somehow he was putting the troops at risk in Iraq, because he was worried about some domestic issue."