"You sort of have to be a little careful. There's a whole campaign handbook of things that you say to dismiss polls. But you should mire them in a little bit of truth." -- John Zogby, responding to criticism by Mark Penn, chief Hillary Clinton strategist, of Zogby's online polling.
Mark Twain, famously warning against getting into a spat with newspapers, said "never pick a fight with someone who buys their ink by the barrel." To his chagrin, Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's chief campaign strategist, is learning a modern corollary: never pick a fight with someone with three hours of national airtime. And for gosh sakes, don't use arguments in picking the fight so false as to be child's play to disprove, and don't leave obvious fingerprints when you try to intimidate the networks.
View video here.
As noted here, Penn went on yesterday's "Morning Joe" and petulantly told host Joe Scarborough that a Zogby poll that showed Hillary losing to all the leading Republicans is "a meaningless poll, and really, frankly, shouldn't even be on your show." Seeking to undercut the poll's credibility, Penn flatly claimed "that was Zogby's first interactive, on-line poll ever."
Their knuckles thus rapped by Penn, did the Clinton campaign really expect Scarborough or John Zogby to sit still? Within an hour, Fritz Wenzel of the Zogby firm shot back with comments with which I updated my item. Wenzel later wrote a column of his own at the Zogby site that Drudge picked up. Then this morning, it was John Zogby's turn on Morning Joe. He appeared at 6:29 AM ET today.
JOE SCARBOROUGH: John, we were feeling guilty yesterday after Mark Penn came on. Because he's a great pollster, as you know, he's one of the best in the business. He's written a great book. I like him. But he tried to make me feel badly about putting up your polls. Basically said it was garbage, didn't have history, this was the first time you've ever done anything like that before. Should we apologize to America?
ZOGBY [chuckling]: No. Good morning. You know, what I'm feeling guilty about, just yesterday I bought 10 copies of his book for my staff and I'm holding onto the receipt. I've got to take them all back now.
SCARBOROUGH: So, let's go through a few points here. First he said this is the first time you've ever done a poll like this before. Did you conduct polls like this before, for instance in the 2006 elections?
ZOGBY: Absolutely. We go back to 1998. That's when we began researching and developing our online polls. We brought them out in the 2004 election and 2006.
SCARBOROUGH: How accurate do they prove to be?
ZOGBY: They were very accurate in both election cycles. There were a couple of states that we blew, quite frankly, Colorado and Arkansas in 2006. But the 2004 version were perfect. And on a national level they were right down to the percentile in terms of the actual voting behavior. When we drill down to some of the states we saw where we made a few mistakes in both cycles but we actually drilled them down to some of the smaller states.
SCARBOROUH: I had somebody tell me yesterday, they did some research and said you got 17 outof 18 of the senate races right in 2006.
ZOGBY: Yup.
SCARBOROUGH: If you did that, you did a hell of a lot better than most pollsters.
ZOGBY: We did, yeah.
SCARBOROUGH: Let me ask you about the Clinton campaign. I understand, also, that after chastising us for mentioning your poll, even suggesting that Americans know this information which we're going to give to them in a minute, after we make sure that we can take it out of quarantine, that actually your biggest -- the campaign that has been your number one customer in requesting polls is who?
ZOGBY: The Clinton campaign.
SCARBOROUGH: Oh really?
ZOGBY: Penn & Schoen [Penn's polling firm] they call, every time they call for our telephone surveys and they call for our online surveys and they ask us also for additional cross-tabulated data from both. And so, I was just kind of curious, you know, it's one thing to attack the poll but it's another thing to say, to try to dismiss it as the first time. Well, they've got a whole backlog of Zogby online polls that they've been studying now for at least five years.
SCARBOROUGH: Online polls. So they actually look at these online polls, and they've been studying them for five years despite the fact they say this is the very first online poll you've ever conducted. That's very interesting.
ZOGBY: It is very interesting. You sort of have to be a little careful. You know, there's a whole campaign handbook of things that you say to dismiss polls. But you should mire them in a little bit of truth.
SCARBOROUGH: You have to be careful!
ZOGBY: Yeah.
MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Is there anything different about this specific poll in question we were talking about, anything that would potentially make it less effective in terms of its results?
ZOGBY: No. Honestly, this is not only the wave of the future, this is the wave of the now. It is random probability sampling based on a very large database of emails that we have that are representative of American voting population. I would say the methodology is about 88% to 90% there. We're calibrating this methodology at the same time, as everybody knows, the telephone is becoming more and more troublesome for us.
SCARBOROUGH: Exactly. All right, John, thank you so much. I appreciate you coming on.
ZOGBY: One other point, Joe, if I could.
SCARBOROUGH: Sure.
ZOGBY: You know, the Gallup poll that everyone is using to compare ours was taken two weeks ago, it was taken November 11th through 14th.
SCARBOROUGH: Really?
ZOGBY: Ours was taken November 22nd to 26th. A lot can happen in that time span.
SCARBOROUGH: And a lot has happened in that time span. More recent polls like yours have shown Hillary Clinton is slipping in Iowa and other places. All right. Thank you so much, John. And, again, the points to underline here are, first of all, that people just don't answer the telephone like they did even five years ago.
BRZEZINSKI: No they don't; they actually hang up.
SCARBOROUGH: So pollsters have to finds different ways. They're doing this. He got 17 out of 18 right in 2006 when you look at Virginia, Montana all these other close states, that's better than most pollsters and pundits. And again, I'm not knocking Mark Penn. If I were in Mark Penn's position I may have done the same thing too. I just don't like people coming onto my show, chastising me for using a poll, it's very reliable. But let me tell you what the Clinton administration, what the Clinton campaign did that worked. Is, they froze people. All day at this network and a couple other networks, they froze people who were afraid to use the poll. And now we've got the information out. And when we come back we're going to talk to Bill Richardson and then we're going to show the Zoby poll again -- without feeling the least bit of guilt.
—Mark Finkelstein is a NewsBusters contributing editor and host of Right Angle. Contact him at mark@gunhill.net.





"You sort of have to be a little careful. There's a whole campaign handbook of things that you say to dismiss polls. But you should mire them in a little bit of truth." -- John Zogby, responding to criticism by Mark Penn, chief Hillary Clinton strategist, of Zogby's online polling.









Editor at Large

Comments Policy
NBC spikes Zogby poll after Clinton complains
November 28, 2007 - 09:51 ET by RJ(Followup to yesterday's story about a Clinton operative saying that the Zogby poll showing Hillary losing to all Republicans was not valid)
Today, Joe Scarborough said that after his show, NBC brass told him that the Clinton campaign had phoned them about the Zogby poll, and that they were spiking it.
Mika Brezinski, who follows Morning Joe was told not to use the poll on her show, as were NBC newscasters. However, by the time Tucker Carlson came on in late afternoon, NBC had reversed itself and was allowing the poll to be used. They tried to cover themselves by claaiming that they wanted to make sure the poll was valid. But only the Clinton campaign had questioned it's validity.
This incident gives a clear and disturbing picture of the power the Clintons have over the media.
NBC -- one of the "Watchdogs"?
November 28, 2007 - 10:20 ET by ThisnThatSo NBC just rolls over when threatened? Just like CNN when threatened by Sadam? And the Washington Post and other newspapers regarding Mohammad cartoons after being threatened? And Wolf Blitzer after being threatened by Clinton -- so he allows her one-word "No" answer to the illegal alien drivers licenses question?
Way to go, MSM -- really bolsters your image of "watchdog" now, doesn't it? Maybe the Iranian president is right -- he should come to America to monitor the elections -- no one else will, apparantly.
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
If the Clinton campaign did
November 28, 2007 - 10:40 ET by taterIf the Clinton campaign did this...shouldn't this be a big deal. Maybe I'm wrong here but isn't that a sign of the violation of freedom of press (granted she isn't the president right now). I mean if her campaign does it now, if she gets the Presidency what's to stop her cronies from crapping all over the first ammendment when it comes to freedom of press.
Do you realize how much it costs to run for office? More than any honest man could afford. -Montgomery Burns
Clinton and the Bunker
November 28, 2007 - 11:14 ET by ThisnThatIf she becomes president, not only will she set up a bunker and operate from there, but she'll be shooting from the bunker all the time. This is a very dangerous individual, folks. I know I'm not the first to say this, but it bears repeating -- her whole life has been dedicated to gaining control, and exacting revenge. She means what she says -- ala, "We will take away the things you currently have", and "it takes a village -- meaning you won't be allowed to operate as an individual".
I know Blonde posted a link to a commercial some time ago showing the 1984 version of what Hillary will be like -- that commercial needs to be shown again and again, just to keep reminding us.
___________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
Hillary's Commie Creds
November 28, 2007 - 15:22 ET by nofate"her whole life has been dedicated to gaining control, and exacting revenge"
ThisnThat: absolutely, and control is the opertive word. This online book by James H. Hansen @ Frontpagemag.com lays a lot of this out and it goes way back to the early years of the 20th century and the Roosevelt administration. Does the name Ickes ring a bell? Harold Ickes senior was Interior secretary in the Roosevelt administration and actively supported a very soft line toward the Stalinist Communists at the time. His son worked on the famous healthcare panel of Hillary's, and also worked with Sandy Burglar and Mark Middleton on the "China Connection".
"The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."
michaelyon-online.com
Yes..
November 28, 2007 - 17:55 ET by celator"This is a very dangerous individual, folks."
Absolutely correct.
To add to the danger, I've read in three different publications, though admitedly not primary sources, that Hillary was a summer intern for Gus Hall while she was a law student. At the time, Hall was the president of the Communist Party of the United States. This was, according to what I have read, how Hillary came to be on the legal team supporting Angela Davis, a communist organizer who first achieved nationwide notoriety when she was linked to the murder of Judge Harold Haley.
Davis was acquited of the charges.
What gets me about critics of online polls
November 28, 2007 - 10:07 ET by sarcasmoIs that they assume good methodology for all other polls. For me, there's only ONE really-good methodology, and it's called "you lose money if you're stupid/wrong." AKA "gambling." The odds on Ron Paul are again slashed, now it's six to one. :) I'm happy to trust that methodology more than ANY professional pollster, from Luntz to Zogby. And to top it off, I'm going to the Florida Straw Poll (less meaningful by-far IMO, but helps the Republican party) today. See ya at the BBQ if you're around!! :)
JMR
Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul.
Exactly Right
November 28, 2007 - 11:38 ET by Del DolemonteI am no fan of most online polls and in fact dropped out of Zogby's interactive polling poll a couple of years ago.
But I've seen some "conventional" polls and surveys use highly questionable methodology, and the only people who've called those pollsters have been us in the blogosphere. CBS News has been busted several times in the past for over-sampling Democrats by 12 to 14%, for example. They hardly ever get called on it, because the majority of news consumers don't read the fine print.
Hillary Matters
November 28, 2007 - 10:08 ET by 10ksnooker... Is truth challenged.
In fact all liberals suffer the same dimentia ... logic is the liberal's mortal enemy and truth is the liberals terrorism. They simply can't deal with truth, which explains a lot of their bizarre behaviour. Swift Boating, telling the truth about liberals .... argh they go running in the night. The rest of the messy stuff they handle with outright character assassination -- Gingrich and Delay both fall into that category.
In days gone by, liberals faithful media parrot would cover it all up, or omit it entirely, today that media parrot is near death and living on borrowed time. In the days of talk radio and the Internet, what a liberal to do? Simple, shut them down, regulate out of existence talk radio. But fortunately, for both it is too late, the truth is out there, it's just not told by what's left of the news media.
caught in another lie
November 28, 2007 - 10:11 ET by candanceTen dollars says Hillary "didn't authorize" Penn to say that on national television.
card holding member of the vast right-wing conspiracy
And Penn will be the one
November 28, 2007 - 10:36 ET by dervishto have to say that on national TV. Right on.
If Rudy Giuliani doesn't
November 28, 2007 - 10:28 ET by Hero SquadIf Rudy Giuliani doesn't like a poll result, can he complain about it and have the media shut it down for a day?
*****
"The empty wagon makes the most noise." - Derrick Mason
Exhibit A:
November 28, 2007 - 10:58 ET by motherbeltExhibit A:
"a meaningless poll, and really, frankly, shouldn't even be on your
show." Seeking to undercut the poll's credibility, Penn flatly claimed
"that was Zogby's first interactive, on-line poll ever."
Exhibit B:
Well, they've got a whole backlog of Zogby online polls that they've been studying now for at least five years. -Zogby
Response:
Oh, nevermind. -Emily Litella of SNL
Another example of the "That explanation is no longer operative" tactic of the Clinton campaign.
I called it right yesterday.
November 28, 2007 - 11:32 ET by c5thenI posted yesterday that Hillary would contact NBC and demand that Joe be "reigned in" and that he should be careful.
Listening to Morning Joe this morning, I herd them talking about being chastised by senior NBC executives for using that poll on their show (read: upsetting the Clinton campaign). He talked about being visted in his office right after the show by an NBC executive who told him not to use the poll anymore because the Clinton campaign disagrees with it. Joe sounded like a teenager who's been caught doing what he's always done, and doesn't understand why now is any different.
Later he went on and on about how Bill is trying to re-write history in saying that he was opposed to the Iraq invasion "from the start". He's going to piss off Hillary one too many times (especially back to back) and be off the air. Mark my words. Joe Scarborough is treading on VERY thin ice right now.
The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Fred08.com
"Joe Scarborough is treading
November 28, 2007 - 12:36 ET by Jimbo"Joe Scarborough is treading on VERY thin ice right now."
So is team Hillary. It's just not being reported.
Leon says "By the way, I'm not afraid of fat people, I'm repulsed"
Truth Monger Says - "Both are religions [Christianity & Islam], yes - with the same percentage of terrorists."
c5then, I posted at the top of the thread about spiking Zogby's
November 28, 2007 - 12:52 ET by RJpoll...but I had a different take on Scarborough's reporting on it. I thought he was pi$$ed about being gagged, but was also being careful about not dumping TOO much on NBC brass.
He went on about it at some length and even forced a very reluctant Mika into admitting that the poll had been spiked for her, too.
Speaking of Hillary
November 28, 2007 - 12:22 ET by V the KDo you recall any news organization ever putting out a story headlined "Bush haters out in Force" like this one from AFP?
Link: http://news.yahoo.co...
Looks like having Penn as a
November 28, 2007 - 12:31 ET by wiwfLooks like having Penn as a last name is an indicator of stupidity! Let us all be warned!
The Rocky Mountain Collegian: Illustrating Idiocy
Not Necessarily
November 28, 2007 - 13:21 ET by Del DolemonteAnother guy named Penn is OK in my book:
Penn and Teller diss the 9/11 Troofers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcrF346sS_I&feature=related
Penn and Teller get hippies to sign a petition banning water:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yi3erdgVVTw&feature=related
Good ones, indeed.
November 28, 2007 - 13:24 ET by sarcasmoBut how 'bout when they diss Frank Luntz? Or the Bible?? ;)
JMR
Rally online with fans of Dr. Ron Paul.
Clinton barks,
November 28, 2007 - 13:48 ET by mattmNBC jumps.... hmmmmm, no bias there...
NBC Credibility
November 28, 2007 - 17:44 ET by CJK51How does the news arm of this network have even an iota of credibility? Between Olberman and Matthews, it's pretty shaky, but throw in the hacks on Today and this Mika ditz and you might get better reporting from your local high school newspaper. I wonder if Joe is regretting whoring himself out to the liberal media in favor of turning his back on conservatism. Assuming he makes it, he's bound to be a man without a country.
-
November 28, 2007 - 23:15 ET by dahliatraversA Clinton campaign strategist got high-handed and mendacious and had his butt handed to him.
Fabulous.