On Saturday, the Washington Post effectively demonstrated how the press cherry-pick snippets of speeches that political and business leaders give in order to completely alter their intent (hat tip to NB member crshedd). In an article entitled “Energy Firms Come to Terms With Climate Change,” authors Steven Mufson and Juliet Eilperin took a few quotes -- one of them actually errant -- out of a 3,610-word speech that Shell Oil President John Hofmeister gave about a month ago to make it look like he’s totally bought into the myth of global warming (emphasis mine throughout):
While the political debate over global warming continues, top executives at many of the nation's largest energy companies have accepted the scientific consensus about climate change and see federal regulation to cut greenhouse gas emissions as inevitable. [..]
"We have to deal with greenhouse gases," John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., said in a recent speech at the National Press Club. "From Shell's point of view, the debate is over. When 98 percent of scientists agree, who is Shell to say, 'Let's debate the science'?"
Now, take a look at what he actually said on this issue (emphasis mine):
Secondly, it's Shell's belief that we have to deal with greenhouse gases. From a Shell point of view, the debate's over. When 90-plus percent of the world's leading figures believe that greenhouse gases have impacted the climate of the Earth, who is Shell to say to say, let's debate the science?
Notice something interesting? The WaPo piece quoted Hofmeister as having said, "98 percent of scientists agree." However, Hofmeister didn't say that. He said, "90-plus percent of the world's leading figures believe." It appears the authors weren't satisfied with the real quote. and felt the need to massage it a bit for greater impact. Isn't that special? Regardless, Hofmeister continued:
We're not going to debate the science. When the policymakers decide it's a problem, it's a problem. And so there are good ideas coming from the White House that will address this, but we believe there needs to be more.
Shell was involved in discussing AB32 in California. At the end of the day, we didn't support the bill because of its ambiguity, but we want to be involved in the debate, we want to be involved in the rule writing that will now occur in California.
But, ladies and gentlemen, we can't have 50 state policies on greenhouse gas emissions. We believe, Shell believes, we need a national approach to greenhouse gas management and how that would work across our industries, not only the gas and oil industry.
Does that sound like a ringing endorsement for global warming, or a little politicking in front of journalists? After all, this represented a whopping five percent of his address. Want to know what else he discussed? Here are some snippets WaPo ignored: "Bringing conventional oil and gas means continuing to exploit the Gulf of Mexico, continuing to develop the resources that are there, prolific as they are, but needing the access to go do it.” If you thought that was a plea for legislative assistance, you'd be right:
We're hopeful that the Congress, when it returns, will pass legislation that would open up additional outer continental shelf to try to get access to even more of the Gulf of Mexico. Of course, we'd like to see outer continental shelf developed in other parts of the nation, and particularly off the coasts of Alaska, and even off the east coasts, if those are one day to be developed.
No global warming there. How about this:
Well, we can start by developing the oil shale of Colorado. The estimates are that more than a trillion barrels of oil and gas sit within the basin in Colorado, which was once a sea. You may not know that. That was once a sea. And so there are a trillion barrels of immature oil and gas in rock, called shale, that can be developed.
Hmmm. Oil shale in Colorado. Going to take some legislation, isn’t it?
Get the point? Well, there was a lot more of this, and the curious should read the entire speech. However, the point is that this was not a global warming address. This was a call for greater oil exploration and other issues all mostly cash-flow positive for Shell, with a little politicking thrown in to appease the journalists present and grease the legislative wheels. A month later, a couple of snippets became part of a front-page story at the Post putting Shell and other oil companies in a positive light.
As such, it appears Hofmeister understands the media's bias, and knows exactly how to manipulate it for his company's best interest.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.















Comments Policy
"...top executives at ma
November 27, 2006 - 00:03 ET by Indiana Joe"...top executives at many of the nation's largest energy companies have accepted the scientific consensus about climate change..."
There's that word again.... "consensus."
Didn't a thread yesterday mention that was the new buzzword for global-warming alarmists? And, doesn't the same word appear in today's article about how Al Gore can't even GIVE away DVDs of his latest clap-trap?
"con-sen-sus - 1. majority of opinion: The consensus of the group was that they should meet twice a month. 2. general agreement or concord; harmony." (dictionary.com)
Not ONE WORD in that definition about "science," notice. Just "opinion, agreement, concord, harmony."
We now "vote" on science, with the "consensus" being annointed as "fact."
If you remember how to diagra
November 27, 2006 - 00:40 ET by crsheddIf you remember how to diagram a sentence then, "...top executives at many of the nation's largest energy companies as accepted the scientific consensus about climate change..." means the consensus of the scientific community. Just like 'There is a Republican consensus that great things going on in Iraq'. You won't find republican in the definition of consensus but the sentence would still be grammatically correct.
crshedd...hello!
November 27, 2006 - 00:45 ET by BlondeFaulty logic, crshedd.
They may have accepted it as a political reality, with which, of course, must be dealt.
That, crshedd, is both reality, and gramatically correct.
Nice try, though.
Not arguing the grammar. Mere
November 27, 2006 - 01:06 ET by Indiana JoeNot arguing the grammar. Merely pointing out that "consensus" is the new word to imply there is no longer any debate on the subject of GW. It's popped up like a mushroom in three different GW stories here in the last two days.
But the definition of "consensus," as noted above, is not "fact," it is "agreement." There was a time when leading scientists "agreed" that the Earth was flat. Didn't make it true.
And the "90-plus percent" or "98 percent" figure is just silly.
Btw, I came back here because you got a "hat tip" for pointing out how out-of-context these remarks from Shell were taken. Yet, on the "Inconvenient Truth" thread, you are using these remarks to make your case. I find that rather ironic.
I guess the h/t was just for drawing attention to the story..... ;^)
warming shwarming the real threat!
November 29, 2006 - 01:16 ET by misterbillwarming shwarming the real threat! Here is the real thing:
"Main article: Overfishing
Research into population trends of various species of seafood is pointing to a global collapse of seafood species by 2048 [1]. Such a collapse would occur due to pollution and overfishing, threatening oceanic ecosystems, according to some researchers."
I don't want to spend any more time arguing about some fool like Algoric the Plunderer's theory.
You Da Green Man Dubya
November 27, 2006 - 00:23 ET by acumenAhhh, the rest of the story. I still think the part about President Bush's Council on Science and Technology supporting a tax on emissions of carbon dioxide is so ahead of its time, so progressive. I'm confident none of those taxes will be passed along to the consumer. But should that happen in this tax-loving Democrat controlled Congress, just remember, higher gas prices are a better sacrifice to make than that of our environment. I'm sure these soon-to-follow, tax-driven higher gas prices will have an immediate if not dramatic effect in cleaning up the air.
It's equally reassuring to have a President that is such a strong defender of the environment. The way he is willing to tax "big oil" for carbon emissions, the way he rides his bike whenever he get's a break from his busy schedule, the way he blows off all of the hate-speech induced hot air directed his way, the way he takes care of his land and assorted critters constantly being harrassed by assorted moonbats on his environmentally-friendly ranch down in Texas. I'm sure all of the enviromotionalists agree..... you da green man Dubya.
I hate the fact that they g
November 27, 2006 - 05:58 ET by liberal_bug_zapperI hate the fact that they get away with interchanging the terms "Global Warming" and "Climate Change" constantly, blurring the lines for those who actually don't pay attention too much since they have other things to do.
I made this in another thread of another article, but since that one has now moved on to page two, I figured here was as good a place to make it as any and it still applies.
Almost all climate scientists (notice I am being specific about which scientists are named here) agree on is that Climate Change is real, it's happening now, and has happened in the past. It's not the if we argue over. It's the how and why and what is causing it.
So far, we’ve seen measured effects from volcanic eruptions, and gasses that dwarf what humanity has put up in the atmosphere. Pinatubo put 20 megatons of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere in just a couple weeks. Pinatubo shot that stuff all the way up to the stratosphere. More than all man made sulfur dioxide emissions in two years… and here’s the kicker. Volcanism is ongoing. It hasn’t stopped and there is no way we can stop it. The fact is that there are somewhere between 1000 and 1500 active volcanoes with a SO2 emission rates ranging from <20 tones/day to >10 million tones/day according to the style of volcanic activity and type and volume of magma involved. There is some serious math involved to get a good estimate, and I don’t have time to do the math, but if someone else would like to do it, I’d be happy, I’ll take the happy medium and be very generous saying the average is around 50 thousand tons a day, and that 1000 volcanoes are active. That puts 5,000,000 tones a day of SO2, or sulfur dioxide, into the atmosphere. That adds up to 1,825,000,000 billion tons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere a year…. And that is nature doing it. By contrast, I think there are just over 2,000 coal plants in the world, each on average releasing 20,000 tons a year. That gets us up to 40,000,000 tons a year. Dang, that’s about 2.25% of what volcanoes put out every year, but yeah, we’re the cause of global pollution.
I've got news for you Libs who read this.... Climate Change is happening. Not one of us conservatives have ever denied that climate change is happening. What we deny is that humans are causing it. We deny it because with no proof and flimsy arguments that do not pass muster…. You Libs are promoting a move back to horse and buggy if we can’t find alternative energy sources.
And as Noel points out, he
November 27, 2006 - 09:09 ET by eucherAnd as Noel points out, he did not say "98% of scientists" but "90-plus percent of the world's leading figures." Does that imply scientists, or Al Gore types?
Don't most speakers give the
November 27, 2006 - 10:09 ET by ding7777Don't most speakers give the Press an "as prepared for delivery" copy of the speech they are going to give? If so, the WaPo story was probably quoting from the copy it received from Hofmeister.
Well ding7777
November 27, 2006 - 10:24 ET by SportPoliticsWell ding7777, do you insist that your lying liberal gasbaggers will actually tell you the truth even when they have it in print in front of their face?
Sure, your idiot speaker embellished his remarks on the fly, or rather detracted from them, or winged out whatever came to him in the moment ?
SportPolitics - [my] idiot sp
November 27, 2006 - 14:39 ET by ding7777SportPolitics - [my] idiot speaker? Sorry, but the CEO of Shell is not my speaker - idiot or otherwise.
ding7777
November 30, 2006 - 08:00 ET by SportPoliticsding7777, yes he is your speaker, and you have just claimed him as a prize, your "man onboard" with the Gorian nightmare. I addressed your naivete' in another remark , please refer to it.
Ding
November 27, 2006 - 10:59 ET by Noel SheppardDing,
Let's assume that was done in this case. A member of the press might then write an article either before the speech, or shortly after it is given to get it out on the wires. However, this article was written a month after the speech occurred. As such, there is no excuse for misquotes. Zero. Nada. Zilch. Bupkis. Get it? ns
Noel Sheppard - Hofmeister is
November 27, 2006 - 13:53 ET by ding7777Noel Sheppard - Hofmeister is giving this same speech in 50 cities. One local reporter said Hofmeister said (withoutout quotes)
Which is different again from the
If Hofmeister is using the same speech over and over, and unless he is reciting the speech or he has it memorized, he will say it differently each time.
But as far as the WaPo reporters writing it from Hofmeister's draft - laziness on their part but not really biased reporting.
(Edited by me:) - one other thought. Just because WaPo published the article one month later doesn't mean that the wasn't written earlier and held for space
Is laziness okay?
November 27, 2006 - 13:59 ET by Unsanelaziness on their part but not really biased reporting. I disagree, but let's say that it was merely laziness on their part. Are you prepared to excuse them because intellectual laziness is somehow okay? I wouldn't be so excused in the realm of academia.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
Unsane - I made a late edit t
November 27, 2006 - 14:06 ET by ding7777Unsane - I made a late edit to the above (the article could have been written at the time of the speech and WaPo held it for space).
Laziness if the reporters did not attend the speech but yes, its ok to use the prepared copy for reference
But in any event, I don't see how there is bias if an article quotes the speaker's "prepared copy".
.
Does ding like journalistic laziness/sloppiness?
November 27, 2006 - 15:55 ET by UnsaneYES OR NO, are you excusing journalistic laziness? Because even if this wasn't biased and was the result of laziness, I am still disgusted.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
Unsane - As I said, using a s
November 27, 2006 - 16:26 ET by ding7777Unsane - As I said, using a speaker's prepared remark (press copy, draft, whatever one calls it) as a reference is ok with me. And the story states that the remark was made a month ago.
Well, you might be shocked, b
November 27, 2006 - 22:35 ET by UnsaneWell, you might be shocked, but I equate such laziness with incompetence. But then, this wasn't laziness: this was a deliberate move by the Leftist, guilt ridden media to manipulate a story. And perhaps you would see that but you are as guilt ridden as any Leftist.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
John Kerry's prepared remark,
November 27, 2006 - 22:43 ET by ChemicalOperatorJohn Kerry's prepared remark, and what he actually said were two different things. You must go on what people say, not what you believe there intent is.
This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave.
Ding
November 27, 2006 - 14:53 ET by Noel SheppardDing,
To say you're grasping at straws is defamatory to straws. First off, where did you get the idea that he was giving this speech in 50 cities? Furthermore, the WaPo piece referenced his National Press Club speech, none other. And, as this is a month after the speech, and the text is available on the Internet, it's preposterous for a reporter to use anything else. Finally, you're assuming that there was a pre-speech text given to the press. Do you know that as fact?
Regardless, there is no justification for using such pre-speech text four weeks after the fact. Face it, this article badly misquoted this individual, and for some reason, you can't handle it. Are you that controlled by your dogma that you can't even see a misquote when its right in front of you? ns
Noel Sheppard - National Pres
November 27, 2006 - 15:57 ET by ding7777Noel Sheppard - National Press Club's Jonathan Salant: (10/25/2006)
This speaking tour is running into 2007.
As I posted earlier, Hofmeister was reported as saying something slightly different in a different city.
Ding
November 27, 2006 - 16:23 ET by Noel SheppardDing,
Great. But WaPo reported on THIS speech at the NPC, not any of the others. As such, if they were going to quote from THIS speech, they should have quoted accurately. Period. ns
Noel Sheppard - I emailed the
November 27, 2006 - 16:31 ET by ding7777Noel Sheppard - I emailed the authors. If I get answer, I'll let you know. But as I said above, using the speaker's draft, press copy, or whatever a month after the event (and WaPO did say the quote was from a month ago) for reference is not evidece of bias.
Ding
November 27, 2006 - 16:55 ET by Noel SheppardDing,
That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. However, I fervently disagree given the accessibility of the actual text on line. You found one source, I found another. Moreover, we weren't paid to do so, and our views aren't being disseminated to over a million readers. As such, these authors had a greater responsibility for accuracy than either of us, and chose to abdicate it.
That said, if your explanation protects your view of the world, and love for the media, I have to appreciate the strength of your defense mechanisms. :-) ns
Noel Sheppard - The author di
November 30, 2006 - 07:39 ET by ding7777Noel Sheppard - The author did make a correction to the quote. I agree with the author that even with the correction
In other words ding7777
November 30, 2006 - 07:55 ET by SportPoliticsIn other words ding7777, they're playing along to "minimize damage done by crazed congressional regulators", and pretending they're onboard fully to "suck up as much of the US government and Kyoto funding" they can get their greedy paws on.
Weren't you at all tipped off by his ~ if the world community of scientist and the Kyoto treaty says so, who are we at Shell to argue ~ styled talking point ?
I guess that didn't mean anything to you ? Don't you get it ?
You remember the drug addled hip Virgin pot smoking Brit guy that announced a 3 billion dollar charity contribution to the "cause" ? ( WE found out he merely considered it "an investment" in a few days - he had changed his tune and said so himself.. )
Ya get it yet ding7777 ? The big PLAYAS are gonna play.
Voodoo Science
November 27, 2006 - 11:07 ET by Full MonteThe libs had Voodoo Economics (which history has proven actually worked) in the 1980s - looks like someone on our side should champion Voodoo Science.
I find it truely amazing that they are "98%" sure about what's going to happen over the next 100+ years, but can totally screw up predictions about what's going to happen over the next 1 year. Climatoligists predicted an extremely active hurricane season for 2006 (17 predictated, 9 actually occured, only 1 even made it into the Gulf of Mexico). It was the first time since 1997 there were no category 4 or 5 storms, and the first time since 2002 there were no named storms in October. But for some reason we don't see headlines like "Climatologists Wrong Again!" in the WP.
If the WP does cover it, th
November 27, 2006 - 21:52 ET by eucherIf the WP does cover it, the article will no doubt credit the new Dem Congress.
Well, Noel, there's now a lab
November 28, 2006 - 05:26 ET by JohnboWell, Noel, there's now a label for people like you and Sen. James Inhofe, the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works. A label provided by none other than California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who calls people like you and Inhofe; "backward-thinking" and from "the Stone Age".
The Aahhnold quotes came from last Sunday's "Meet The Press" in response to a recording of Inhofe's assertation that global warming was based on "phony science" and is "the greatest hoax perpetrated on the American people." Schwarzenegger asserted that global warming was scientifically-proven fact and that "we can slow it down or we can stop it, but only if everyone is working together."
That puts Schwarzenegger in line with most of the science and scientists in the world and even President Bush. And that puts you and Inhofe in line with all the tin-foil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorists and their corporate-owned scientists. Or, if you like Schwarzenegger's label better, the rest of the backwards thinking, stone age people.
I couldn't have said it better, Aahhnold. OK, well, maybe a little better.
You'll say it better someday Johnbo
November 28, 2006 - 06:57 ET by SportPoliticsYou'll say it better someday Johnbo, and it will go something like, " Sorry, Noel, I was wrong."
[ The increase in the earth's surface temperature during the past 150 years is far less than the best climate models predicted.
Based on models, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted in 1990 that if no further action were taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions, we could expect an increase in temperature between 4.5 degrees and 6.0 degrees Celsius by 2050. In 1996 a new IPCC prediction was for an increase of 0.8 degrees to 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 - less than half the warming in twice the time. A U.S. government survey of the global climate model literature conducted predicted even less warming - between 0.5 degrees and 2.0 degrees Celsius by 2100.
With every new report the range of warming falls, which implies that the early models on which the most catastrophic claims were based were crude predictors of global climate change.
As the models improve they show less and less warming - which is in line with actual temperature data - and a reduced likelihood of harmful environmental events. Yet even the improved climate models are flawed. When the models' past and present temperature estimates are compared to actual past and present temperature measurements, the models are off by more than a degree. If the models cannot describe past or present temperatures correctly, why should we base public policy decisions on their predictions of future temperatures?
Environmentalists have argued that the slight surface warming of just over 1 degree Fahrenheit the earth has experienced since the mid-1800s must be the result of human activities, since natural temperature changes this substantial occur over hundreds or even thousands of years. But a study published in the October 2, 1998, issue of Science showed that around 12,500 years ago global temperature rose by more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit in approximately 50 years. This natural change was more than 10 times the "catastrophic" warming environmentalists claim humans are causing - and it occurred in half the time. The finding confirms that global climate can change dramatically within a very short period and can do so absent human influence.
Environmentalists also have argued that since the United States is the largest emitter of CO2, the greenhouse gas of primary concern, it should take the lead in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Unfortunately for their argument, it turns out that the U.S. is in fact a leading "air filter." According to an October 16, 1998, article in Science, North America removes more carbon (about 2 billion tons) from the atmosphere than it emits (1.5 billion tons) each year. One reason is the tremendous regrowth in the eastern U.S. of forests that act as carbon sinks, removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
Even more damaging to the environmentalists' argument is the fact that most of the warming over the last century occurred before 1940 - preceding the vast majority of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. Global warming alarmists have been unable to explain this mismatch between warming theory and scientific data.
Two scientific papers published in March of this year may explain the mismatch quite well. In the March 11 issue of Nature, scientists report that contrary to the belief that both CO2 and global temperature have remained fairly constant during the last 11,000 years, global temperature has remained relatively stable (± 1 1/2 degrees Fahrenheit from the average), but CO2 levels have varied greatly.
In a March 12, 1999, paper in Science, a team of researchers concluded that when the earth shifts from glacial to warm periods, as it does every 100,000 years or so, temperature rise consistently precedes increased CO2 levels by between 400 and 1,000 years. This finding is at odds with global warming theory and the idea that increased levels of CO2 force climate temperatures upward, but it does correspond with reality. The earth came out of a "Little Ice Age" during the middle of the last century. During that time global temperature was about 1 degree cooler than at present. If the current research is correct, one could surmise that the temperature increase at the end of the Little Ice Age has, like previous warming, preceded an entirely natural increase in CO2. While human activities have probably contributed to the current CO2 increase, the link between that increase and warmer temperatures becomes more uncertain with each new scientific discovery.
C'mon Sport, you know that e
November 28, 2006 - 09:59 ET by Full MonteC'mon Sport, you know that early man (Karl Rove's direct anscestors) discovered fire about 12500 years ago!
Nice cut and paste job. I'll
November 28, 2006 - 14:19 ET by throatwobblerNice cut and paste job. I'll take a whack at the biggest howler in there and you can decide if you want to discard the rest.
"If the current research is correct, one could surmise that the temperature increase at the end of the Little Ice Age has, like previous warming, preceded an entirely natural increase in CO2."
No, no no no no no no. No. It is completely unidsputed, even by the most gas-guzzling, oil-money taking scientist, that the CO2 rise is due to the burning of fossil fuels. Why? The chemical reaction created when burning fossil fuels creates CO2. We can then estimate how much CO2 will be left in the air after being swallowed up by sinks (such as the ocean). Finally, if that were not enough, we can look at the isotopes of CO2 in the air and determine its origin.
No one who knows anything about the science would make this claim.
Credibility=0.
Oh, and because past rises in temp. were not caused by CO2 does not mean that it is not causing this warming.
Nor does it follow that the p
November 28, 2006 - 14:56 ET by NL207Nor does it follow that the present mild increase in global temperature is entirely due to increased CO2 attributable to the burning of fossil fuels.
The abject failure of the numerous climate simulation models to correctly predict the prevailing atmospheric temperatures of the last decade or regress temperature data from the interval 1920-1940 are proof the above statement is true.
Are you ready for a nice pasting of your own, Wobbler?
No, it doesn't follow automat
November 28, 2006 - 20:49 ET by throatwobblerNo, it doesn't follow automatically, but combine CO2's known physical properties with the fact that no other cause for the warming has been found and you get the theory.
Take a look at the models again. Hansen's model from 1988 has predicted the temperature rise remarkably well. Other models predict such things as Southern greenland's slow response to warming. But, if you're not convinced by the models, the members of the AGU, NASA, NAS, etc. are, so no worries.
"The fact that no other
November 28, 2006 - 21:01 ET by ChemicalOperator"The fact that no other cause for the warming has been found"
The other planets are warming as well, Are you saying that Fossil fuel's burned here released Co2 that somehow affected the universe?
Is it not more likely that it is a global cycle, not unlike the promise of a global ice age back in the 70's? I believe its a rush to judgement by people without enough data to make a fair comparision of whats normal for the earth and what the cycles truely look like. The record temps have still not been broken yet, for a planet that is supposedly warming so quick.
Back in the 70's scientists preached much like they are now of a global cooling, caused by the same greenhouse gases that are suppose to be now causing global warming. There solution was to drop tons of peet moss on the artic poles to allow the earth to warm up, if we had listened to them then we would be in a world of hurt today. The earth is incredibly flexible with what kind of damage it can take and I believe if we try to play God we end up causing a worse problem.
This nation will remain the land of the free only so long as it is the home of the brave.
that no other cause for the
November 28, 2006 - 21:15 ET by Jack Bauerthat no other cause for the warming has been found
Are you really that stupid? I guess you truly are.
Try looking into the sky. See that huge 5 billion year old nuclear furnace burning fuel at a rate of 5 million tons a second -- for the next 5 billion years. That's the one with solar flares shooting out for millions of miles.
We call it The Sun.
Ever cross what passes for your brain, that our nearest star has a tad more affect our climate, as opposed to little old you. Talk about being an arrogant twit.
Proud member of the all-powerful and vast
militarist/industrialist/capitalist/zionist-bagelist complex
Typical childish insult. S
November 29, 2006 - 08:39 ET by throatwobblerTypical childish insult.
Solar trends are well documented and do not explain the warming. Maybe a fact check before calling someone stupid?
Facts?
November 29, 2006 - 08:55 ET by BarberianAre these the "facts" filter by the MSM from special interest "scientist" to justify their preconceptual theories?
Considering some comments you
November 29, 2006 - 18:33 ET by UnsaneConsidering some comments you have made on past threads to other posters to include myself, you lost your right to whine about "childish insults" a long time ago.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
wobbly....Jack is right!Commo
November 29, 2006 - 18:43 ET by bigtimerwobbly....Jack is right!
Common sense needs to be applied here.
Reread his post and comprehend the idea of it all...the facts are there for all to see every day.
Three letter word....SUN.
There are no other cause foun
November 28, 2006 - 23:48 ET by NL207It does not follow at all.
There are no other causes found or the warming? This is a false statement. This cause has also been found for the warming. The report is VERY conservative in its estimates. The solar activity plot for the last 3 centuries closely mirrors the Earth's global temprature plot over the same interval.
The models all fail to correctly regress the time interval 1920 -1930. This is a certain indication there is an unaccounted first order term. Examine the results of this model and compare its figures 13 and 19. Notice the large discrepancy in the 20's and 30's between the predicted and measured temperatures. The models also fail over the last ten years. The temperature increases predicted by the models have not materialized. The Mann 'Hockey Stick' prediction said the warming should have yielded another 0.17-0.20 degree increase over the temperatures of 1998 by 2008. It hasn't been as warm as 1998 since then. This is another indication that there is an unaccounted for first order term operating here. Even the NAS report alludes to these discrepancies.
Dr. Hansen's original projections in 1988 turned out to be erroneous. He revised his predictions significantly downward in 1998 . Don't lie to me about how well Hansen's 1988 predictions have met the test of time. They did not. That is why he revised his forecast.
The facts are obvious: The warming does not have its source entirely in human activity. Indeed, it is not clear that human activity is even the dominant factor in play here. The natural variations observed over the last 100 years have demonstrated they are as large as any human contributions thus far. This begs the question: Will human caused global warming be a bad thing if the natural variations begin to trend downward again as they did near the Maunder Minimum or the planet begins to enter into another ice age, as happened 110,000 years ago?
1. The paper you reference ci
November 29, 2006 - 08:47 ET by throatwobbler1. The paper you reference cites a possible 10-30 percent attribution to solar forcing. This paper is the highest estimate out there; there are many others that show solar trends as negligible. So you cherry pick this paper, and, if that's not enough, you say, wuthout one ounce of evidence, that the paper is "VERY consevratiove in its estimates" Stop being deceptive.
2. No, Hansen's model predictions were accurate. Check out his scneario B from his 1988 paper. This is the scenario presented as "mnost plausible" and it was extremely accurate. Repeating something over and over doesn't make it true.
The facts are obvious, which is why every scientific organization supports the theory of human caused global warming.
I see you have conceded my po
November 29, 2006 - 11:06 ET by NL207I see you have conceded my point that the models fail to accurately regress 1920-1940 and have failed to accurately predict the last 8 years as well.
My refernce actually says: "have minimally contributed ∼10–30%"
Emphasis is mine. If you could read the whole paper, you would see that they were being VERY conservative. There are more papers out there. If you read them carefully, you will find this was not the most extreme.
Cherry picking? I chose the middle of the road estimate. Maybe you like this paper better. It says:
"We estimate that the sun contributed as much as 45-50% of the 1900-2000 global warming"
or this press release from the Max Planck Institute which contains these two statements:
"These data show clearly that the Sun is in a state of unusually high activity, for about the last 60 years"
"Another period of enhanced solar activity, but with substantially fewer sunspots than now, occurred in the Middle Ages from 1100 to 1250. At that time, a warm period reigned over the Earth, as the Vikings established flourishing settlements in Greenland."
In their actual paper, which you can't see online without subscription, the MPI researchers report that the sun accounts for 4-20% of the warming seen since 1970.
So ... I was not cherry picking at all; you owe me an apology; and it is a matter of established FACT that there are other SIGNIFICANT contributing factors of the similar magnitude to the recently observed climatic warming besides human activity.
Hansen's theories were so accurate, he had to provide THREE scenarios, A, B & C, none of which were exactly correct. Scenario B was close, until 1998, since which it has failed. Since that time, none of his predictions of 1988 have been accurate. His prediction revisions of 1998 and 2001, which are LOWER than any of the three scenarios of 1988, call for something like a 1.4 degree C increase on global tempratuures by 2100. [and are more in line with the pojections of the NAS report of June 2006] His original scenarios, and Mann's 'hockey stick' as well both called for increases in the range of 5.4 to 10 degrees C. It seems likely these alarmist visions were gross exaggerations of the real effect. It is the reporting of these alarmist projections by both the MSM and people like Al Gore that are deceptive. The real effect has been and is likely to continue to be much less than the alarmists claim.
Almost **NO** scientific organizations support the alarmist trash you, Al Gore, and many others have been promoting. The NAS report is a case in point. The GW alarmists trumpet its findings as supporting their cause. The real truth is the NAS report projects very moderate warming over the next 100 years. IIRC, their report says the likely increase will be about 1.4 degrees C. It also projects that sea levels will increase 0.1 - 0.9 meters, none of the 20 foot crap that Al Gore has been promoting.
And last, the Max Planck Institute says that solar activity has actually been declining since about 2000. Read their literature. Maybe this accounts for the shortage of predicted GW since 1998? MPI say that solar activity will continue to decline for the most of the next century, reaching a minimum around 2100, when it will begin to grow again.
No scientific organizations,
November 29, 2006 - 12:34 ET by throatwobblerNo scientific organizations, huh? We've been through this. The only one you could find was the petroleum geologists and we all had a good laugh with that.
What shortage of GW since 1998? 1998 was an el nino year, and was wamrer than those around it. But 2005 was warmer than 1998.
NAS report: Nonsense. The report did not make any projection. Huh?
Mann's hockey stick: another HUH? The hockey stick is a reconstruction of past temperatures using tree rings as proxies. It does not make any projection about the future.
Here's an excellent critique of the Scarlietta paper. There's a link there showing no solar trends since the 1950s. Educate yourself or remain in ignorance, your choice:
http://www.realclima...
I'll leave you to your cherry picking and mindreading, without apology. I concede nothing to you. I don't have the time to show you everywhere you are wrong. It would be a full time job.
You are factually incorrect a
November 30, 2006 - 15:50 ET by NL207You are factually incorrect as is usual.
The American Association of Petroleum Geologists until quite recently actually maintained there was no anthropogenic global warming at all. Their current position paper does not even connect the words 'human caused' or 'anthropogenic' with 'climate change'.
The American Meteorological Society also held a 'no anthropogenic global warming' position until 2003, when this position was adopted. Reading it, one is struck to the degree by which the AMS has been influenced by the 2001 IPCC report which it originally opposed. You lose this point.
Please examine the global temperature data in this chart. It is factual and shows that it is not any warmer now than 1998. Nor was 2005 any warmer than 1998. In fact, 2002-3-4-5 have been all pretty much the same. You will also notice the last 8 years' data has been sufficient to turn the trajectory of the temperature chart from sharp increase to inflection, based on the best fit algorithm this researcher is using. The trajectory has not been at inflection since 1967! This is in conflict with model predictions made that the earth should warm about 0.20 degree per decade if CO2 were the only factor. We are 80% to the end of the decade and have not experienced any warming. I would submit that there must be other factors changing in the last 8 years that have collective magnitudes equal to or greater than the effect of CO2 concentration increase that occurred during those same years. Alternatively, it may also be that the CO2 increase projected by these models is not reflected in the actual increase in concentration. In the absence of one of these explanations, we should have had another 0.15 degree or more of global warming by now, should we not?. You lose again.
This is a link to testimony before Congress by the President of the NAS in September of 2005. It is derived from the NAS' earlier report which is no longer accessible online. Notice that it DOES make predictions. See the section entitled "Warming will continue, but its impacts are difficult to project". You are once more shown to be factualy incorrect.
Mann's Hockey Stick.... Examine the graph in the middle part of this article from Nature. It is the 'hockey stick' graph. Notice the portion of it that represents future climate history. That projection is most certainly NOT based on tree rings unless Michael Mann has a time machine we don't know about. The author of this article, Geoff Brumfield, sources the data for this article as ... Michael Mann:
"The graph arose from the work of Michael Mann, a climatologist now at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, and two colleagues. In two papers published in 1998 and 1999, Mann's team examined tree rings, ice cores and other 'proxies' of past climate, and used them to reconstruct the Northern Hemisphere's temperature over the past millennium (M. E. Mann et al. Nature 392, 779–787; 1998 and M. E. Mann et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759–762; 1999)."
Unfortunately, the entire Mann paper cannot be viewed unless the viewer is also a Nature subscriber, but nevertheless, you are again shown to be factually incorrect.
The Scarlietta paper is not the only paper that derives the same qualitative result: variations in solar activity impact climate on earth. The others vary only quantitatively from the Scarlietta conclusions. The Max Planck Institute data and work is also in direct contradiction to your link. While they do not estimate the effect to be as great as Scarlietta or some of the others, it is nevertheless, not zero as you contend. I trust MPI results more than your link and I think a majority of other scientists would do so as well.
As to the need for education, it is clear to me that you are no scientist. This means you are entirely unqualified to teach me anything about science.
You need not concede anything. You and your arguments have been totally refuted by hard evidence from external references. Moreover, much that you have said has been shown to be factually incorrect. What you concede is irrelevant. Your argument has been crushed.
Here is what you said earlier
November 30, 2006 - 23:55 ET by throatwobblerHere is what you said earlier:
"His prediction revisions of 1998 and 2001, which are LOWER than any of the three scenarios of 1988, call for something like a 1.4 degree C increase on global tempratuures by 2100. [and are more in line with the pojections of the NAS report of June 2006]"
And here is what you say now:
"This is a link to testimony before Congress by the President of the NAS in September of 2005. It is derived from the NAS' earlier report which is no longer accessible online."
Since when is June 2006--a report that made no predictions--equal to June 2005? In any case you said that 1.4oC rise is "in line" with this report? Here is what the report says:
"Simulations of future climate change project that, by 2100, global surface temperatures will be from 2.5 to 10.4oF (1.4 to 5.8oC) above 1990 levels."
Gosh, what possible reason could you have for cherrypicking the low number of their range? Your blatant dishonesty is unbelievable, especially considering you provided a link to the report.
You cherrypick 1998 because it's the warmest year (el nino). Pick any other year and your assertion goes down in flames.
"Mann's team examined tree rings, ice cores and other 'proxies' of past climate, and used them to reconstruct the Northern Hemisphere's temperature over the past millennium."
Thanks for posting evidence that proves my claim. Any mention of projecting future climate here? No.
"The American Meteorological Society also held a 'no anthropogenic global warming' position until 2003"
Too bad for you it's 2006. And I lose the point. You are embarassing yourself.
"Your argument has been crushed."
What, by you prviding evidence that suports it? Sure.
You can read the reports and
December 1, 2006 - 02:06 ET by NL207You can read the reports and data for yourself. And so can everyone else. That is why I provided them.
But .... They still demonstrate clearly you were factually incorrect earlier. The NAS reports DO make predictions, or more precisely, they repeat predictions made elsewhere with assent that these are "likely" to be correct. Moreover, if you read them, you will see the NAS reports for 2005 and 2006 are little different from one another.
Dishonest? If I were being dishonest why would I do the research and then post it for everyone to see?
Cherry pick? I chose the values that were similar to the values that have already been seen. It is clear already that the wild predictions of warming were just that, wild. The actual warming observed over the interval 1970-2005 fit Hansen's most conservative prediction most closely. It certainly did not fit Hansen's scenario A prediction. Choosing the scenarios that are most close to the demonstrated behavior of the system only makes sense.
I can pick any year I like and my satement still stands. Warming has slowed to a crawl. You didn't look carefully at that temperature curve drawn on the chart I posted. The curve is a best fit, probably by some least squares method around a polynomial function of some sort. I didn't read the details but they all do more or less the same thing. It shows an INFLECTION POINT has been reached. Do you have any idea what an inflection point is? It means the curve HAS CHANGED DIRECTION in the last five years. It had been rising monotonically since 1967. This is significant. Does it mean things will cool? I don't think so. But I do think that if solar activity behaves as MPI has predicted, and the concentration growth of CO2 in the atmosphere does not grow faster than has been predicted, the warming will not approach the 0.20 degree per decade mark again until solar activity once more begins to wax aound 2100 as predicted by MPI.
Now, for a little sport. What does this tell you?
You think your point is made? Poll the community here who've read this. I think you got hammered. The shrillness of your post says it all. And you are still factually challenged. The only facts you actually have at your disposal are the ones I posted for you. You should learn how to do research.
Where do I say the NAS report
December 1, 2006 - 11:36 ET by throatwobblerWhere do I say the NAS reports don't make predicitons? I said "the NAS report" referring to the June 2006 report.
http://www.nap.edu/c...
Hansen's scenario B, the one he stated was "most plausible," is quite accurate. Scenario A is off because we did not ramp up CO2 emissions. You chose the low value and claimed that was what Hansen was predicting. You said he lowered his predictions. He didn't. You said the NAS report said 1.4oC was about right, and now you turn around and say you chose it because you chose " values that were similar to the values that have already been seen." So you made that judgment and tried to pass it off as the NAS prediction. Nice try though.
Warming has not "slowed to a crawl." According to NASA, 2005 was the warmest year. I don't know why this data conflicts with the cru data you posted. You are making statistical statments based on one year, 1998. Even if we accept 2005 as the second warmest year, the five year mean is still increasing. Ten of the last eleven years are the warmest ever recorded. If you look at the last five years:
NASA CHART
You will see warming from 2000-2005 from 0.3oC to 0.6oC, so your claim is undeniably false. Notice the five year mean on that graph, which way is it going?
I have no doubt that the people who post here think you are winning this debate. But they are not objective.
I have no idea what your point is about the pie chart. I'm sure you view it as somehow proving that global warming isn't happening, but you'll have to fill me in on the twisted logic.
Hansen's model collapses on t
December 4, 2006 - 02:27 ET by NL207Hansen's model collapses on the 1920-1941 data set. It's wrong. Period. End of story. It's the same old story. Do you understand what a fourier series is? Over a limted interval, it is possible to represent a step function, or any other piecewise continuous wave, with the summation of an infinite series [Fourier] of sine waves. But outside the interval of interest, the representation diverges dramatically. Outside Hansen's period of interest, his model breaks doown.
Obviously, I reject your interpretation of the temperature graph. The least squares fit algothms do not lie. The curve flattened on the last five years' data. For it to turn back upward, 2006 has to be warmer than 1998 was. Its looking like the aggregate 2006 will turn out to be the same as 2005, which will strengthen the flattening trend. And the point remains, the predicted 0.2 degre per decade increase is not happening. Since CO2 is still being produced, some other factor must be at work here. This is an inescapable conslusion.
Let me help you with the pie chart. This chart is distributed by NOAA from their website for the ostensible purpose of educating students about global warming. It is therefore, taxpayer sanction material, genuine government issue. It purports to represent the partial products of the effects of ALL greenhouse gases. The author's intent was to convince the viewers that CO2 is the 500 pound gorilla in the greenhouse gas room.
This chart is nothing more than a sham, a shameful brain washing of impressionable young people and unscientific minds. Its purpose can only be to frighten people into granting the government more power.
Why is ths a sham? The answer is here. These quotes come from this source.
"Water vapor is a natural greenhouse gas and accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect"
"chapter lead author Michael Mann considers citing "the role of water vapor as a greenhouse gas" to be "extremely misleading" as water vapor can not be controlled by humans "
Where do you see the effects of water vapor or water vapor even mentioned on that pie chart? Were water vapor shown, the rest of the gases would, combined, occupy less than 4% of the pie, a little slivver. The truth would choke this scare campaign right off, so it must not be told. At the least, NOAA, and probably every other government funded agencydoing climat research, do their level best to ignore and conceal this truth without overtly lying. Yet YOU want to trust them!
Now, I will explain why you've had youir clock cleaned.
(1) You claim that the present warming is entirely man-made. This is absurd. Prior to man's existence, he Earth's climate has always varied under the domination of planetary-scale forces. To accept our argument is to accept the notion that these forces stopped suddenly when man underwent the industrial revolution. Therefore, the AGW folks are simply wrong, and you are one of the, to dismiss out of hand he possibility of natural contributions to warming, epecially when there is solid research indicating that the single most important element in the equation, the sun, has been waxing in power for the last century.
(2) The AGW folks would have us believe is that human generated forces can dominate natural forces on a planetary scale. This is pure garbage. Even an all-out nuclear war would only produce a blip in the planetary climate, washed away in a few short years. The small warming [0.6 degree C according to the NAS report] humans have induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 by 35+% is dwarfed by the huge natural shifts seen in the geologic record. As far as I know, there are no accepted explanations for why these geologic events occurred. Man does not know why the last ice age ended, or for that matter, why it began. Nor can science explain with any certainty why the earth cooled suddenly in the middle of the eocene period about 44 million years ago and has remained so since that time. Man does not even know what caused the warming that occurred between 1920 and 1941. Clearly since all these GW models FAIL over that time interval, the theories they are constructed on do not explain that measured phenomena.
"Hansen's theories were so ac
November 29, 2006 - 13:06 ET by throatwobbler"Hansen's theories were so accurate, he had to provide THREE scenarios, A, B & C, none of which were exactly correct."
Oh I couldn't resist this bit of misinformation. The reason there are three scenarios is because he wanted to show what would happen if GHGs were ramped up (A) if emissions increased at the current rate (B) or if they were cut back in 2000 (C). Was this intentional deception or do you not know what you're talking about? Seriously, I can't tell.
On misinformation
November 29, 2006 - 22:52 ET by UnsaneHell, we already know you can't resist misinformation. ESPECIALLY if it fits your dogma. That's not new.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
Prove it.
November 30, 2006 - 14:17 ET by throatwobblerProve it.
Enjoy your flambeau!
November 30, 2006 - 18:03 ET by NL207Enjoy your flambeau!
Keep demanding everyone prove
December 1, 2006 - 00:43 ET by UnsaneKeep demanding everyone prove everything to you, while you sit back on your intellectual throne in self-coronation.
For starters, how about your claims that China had come along much further than the United States in cutting greenhouse gases? That propaganda couldn't have been better delivered by the Xinhua News Agency. It is a cold hard fact that at present rates, China will be the #1 emitter of greenhouse gases in 2015.
But not you, or any other GW religionist, will ever get on the Chinese to change their world-destroying ways. When was the last time a gaggle of GW-religionists, or yourself, protested this appaling statistic, and demanded China do something about it, in front of their embassy in Washington?
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
You said I misinform and now
December 1, 2006 - 11:48 ET by throatwobblerYou said I misinform and now you whine that I ask you to prove it.
I showed you an article that shows CO2 emissions decreases in China around 2000. They are a huge problem, but they have done a little (a very little). The article was peer reviewed and no one ever posted any evidence to the contrary, nor showed any reason why the paper was wrong. You see, you have to PROVE something is propaganda. You can't just say it and make it true. I know the right wing believes they can say things and make them true. It doesn't work that way. I'm sorry you are too lazy or uninformed to prove anything.
I'm interested in getting the U.S. to do something now. The U.S. is the leading polluter now, and will be the leading per capita polluter until mid century. It's absurd to think I should go around protesting other countries when mine has done squat--at least at the federal level.
I never claimed that China will not become the no. 1 polluter. I never said we should do nothing about China.
So making a claim and then backing it up with evidence is misinforming. This place gets more irrational every day.
You presented no such article
December 1, 2006 - 13:11 ET by UnsaneYou presented no such article. I could, if I have more time, go back to that thread. I just might if the opportunity presents itself. And once again, peer review is nothing more than a green light to toss your critical thinking skills out the window: something you routinely do when it suits you. Say, do you mean you have to prove something is wrong, just as you have to prove something is irrelevant, just as you actually have to WORK to debunk something instead of just proclaiming it is wrong? I'm sorry you are infinitely too lazy, consumed with arrogance, and yes, guilt, and far too dogmatic, to want to be informed or to prove anything.
And besides, you can present me 10 million articles telling me how wonderful Chinese environmental policy is, but it won't fly with me. You see, I have actually been to China and seen it up close. I know you are arrogant enough to think that you can convince me I don't see what I am seeing, but it's not going to work.
Pray tell, since you have all the answers and are clearly the smartest human being in the world, should we do? Or do you just like to cry about how horrifically evil the United States is for allowing this theroetical phenomenon to continue?
Oh, and hate to shatter your illusions once again: China becomes the leading emitter of greenhouse gases in 2015 (that can only make sense as they have a larger population). That year is NINE YEARS from now, not mid century. I would suspect India, again with a larger population than the United States, will also pass the United States in that area before too long as well. Isn't this a GLOBAL issue, guiltwobbler?
But only crickets from you GW religionists and dogmatists. It is ALL about how to punish the evil United States.
You make plenty of claims but never back anything. It is time we here called you on it.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy." -Sir Winston Churchill, British statesman (1874-1965)
Unsane...
December 1, 2006 - 13:28 ET by Clear thinkerI too have first hand knowledge of how China treats it's environment, and it ain't a pretty sight. I've posted this before in some detail, but w