Leading Research Company Debunks Peak Oil Theory, Will Media Notice?

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At about 11:00 AM Eastern Time Tuesday, CNBC reported that a highly-regarded research company, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, has determined that the well-touted theory that the world has or is close to “peak oil” is nonsense. CNBC’s Sharon Epperson covered the story (rough transcript):

There is this new report out that says, “Is the world running out of oil? No way!” The new report out today debunks the peak oil theory. That of course is the theory that when half of the oil is pumped out of the ground, then it’s going to peak and decline precipitously from there. Well, today, CERA, which is the Cambridge Energy Research Associates, is just out with a report saying that this in fact is a faulty theory; that the peak oil theory that the world is running out of oil is simply a faulty premise. It says that there are actually nearly 3 ¾ trillion barrels of oil out there. That is nearly three times the 1.2 trillion that most of the peak oil theorists think is out there. And they also say that this is too critical an issue to allow fear to enter into the equation. Really it takes careful analysis to really talk about some of the challenges that are out there in delivering these fuels to economies that really need them.

As CNBC anchor Michelle Caruso Cabrera read through the embargoed release, she mentioned that its author, Dan Yergin, is one of the most respected oil analysts in the world, and that in this report, he claimed:

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“This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil.” Cabrera paraphrased from the report and said that “every time we come up against these issues, there are new discoveries out there that seem to make this less of an issue.”

Yergin is going to be interviewed by CNBC later to discuss this report which appears to still be embargoed and has not yet been released. However, it will be quite fascinating to see how much attention this gets in the media the next couple of days.

Stay tuned.

Update: Bloomberg has now also picked up on this (emphasis mine):

Global oil production will increase for at least the next 25 years as new drilling and refining techniques make it possible to tap heretofore untouchable reserves, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the consulting firm run by Daniel Yergin.

The world probably has 3.7 trillion barrels of oil left, more than twice the estimates of geologists and analysts such as Matthew Simmons, of the investment bank Simmons & Co., who argue global output is close to a peak, said Peter Jackson, director of oil-industry research for the Cambridge, Massachusetts, firm.

``The peak-oil theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues,'' Jackson said in remarks prepared for a conference call today with analysts, investors and reporters. ``Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges.''

The late geologist M. King Hubbert, working for a unit of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, first put forward in 1956 the theory that output from a specific oil deposit or region would peak and then start to decline following a predictable curve. His ideas have gained currency as oil prices tripled in the past five years and producers struggled to keep pace with rising demand in China.

The theory is ``misleading'' and based on incomplete data, according to today's report from Cambridge Energy. Worldwide oil production will rise by more than 50 percent to about 130 million barrels a day around 2030 before output plateaus, the report said. Yergin, the firm's founder, wrote ``The Prize,'' a Pulitzer-winning history of the oil industry.

When global crude output begins to fall around 2050, the decline probably will be gradual, giving policy makers, industry and energy producers time to develop new alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, the report said.

[…]

``This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil,'' Yergin said in an e-mailed statement. ``Each time -- whether it was the `gasoline famine' at the end of World War I or the `permanent shortage' of the 1970s -- technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline.''

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.

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This is a discussion statemen

This is a discussion statement by Tim Ball and several others. It was in a discussion in a membership group. So I can't link.

There were discussions of lunar samples.

Tim Ball

 Origin of oil is a fascinating topic that I recall developed several years ago when drilling in igneous rocks in Scandinavia (I believe Sweden) claimed to have found oil. I agree with Scott that just because oil is primarily found in sedimentary rocks doesn't mean it formed there. Water is also found in sedimentary rocks but simply because it can flow through and be stored there interstitially. I also recall the question was "Why isn't any oil being formed now?" I remember there was much excitement around the discovery of hydrocarbons in the samples brought back from the moon. I wonder how much this was downplayed because it didn't fit prevailing theory and especially because it confirmed one more accurate prediction by Immanuel Velikovsky.

From Scott wilcoxon

But the Jack 2 well is being described as being in Walker Ridge,
apparently in rocks from the Paleogene (65-23 million years ago). I
think it is in the Wilcox structure which is being followed in that
area. Deposits are in sedimentary rocks, where igneous rocks tend to be
of interest in support of abiogenic theory.

However, what is interesting is that these are described as clastic
rocks, ones formed from rock fragments.

It has been noticed that 65 million years ago the Chicxulub impact took
place in the area, and deeply fractured rock is of interest to abiogenic
oil/gas theories. Mexico's large Cantarell Field is quite close to the
impact site, and although a relationship to the impact has been
conjectured I haven't found details about this yet.

Unfortunately, just because stuff is found in sedimentary rocks doesn't
guarantee that is where it came from. Abiogenic theories say the source
is deeper. Conventional "burial" theories have a lot of supporting
evidence in the Gulf. And there are possible combinations of processes,
such as Thomas Gold's oil/gas seeps to the surface causing alteration of
organic matter (such as methane-altered chemistry in a bog before the
bog is buried).

Unknown author

The Jack 2 well, which is 175 miles offshore, is in more than 7,000 feet of water and then drilled through more than 20,000 feet of rock below the sea floor, or about five miles below the surface of the Gulf. Chevron said the test had a flow rate of more than 6,000 barrels of crude oil a day.

I hope that helped.

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."  Albert Einstein

danbo,It's not exactly a warm

danbo,

It's not exactly a warmer statement.

But I just knew you'd show up and give it a great shot!

This is really rather fascinating stuff. 

H Blondie. It is fascinating.

H Blondie. It is fascinating. dscott may be right. There may be oil on the moon and mars. (if my memory is correct there was evidence of a carbon based reaction in some of the martian landing tests. Adding to the hullaballu over the possability of life on Mars.

When I was a kid in the 50's they were saying we were going to run out of oil soon. We haven't run out yet. And they keep finding it. In places they didn't think the would find it.

On the warmer front. Seems IPCC took lessons in the Clintonian class of double speak. ("Of course he also meant oral sex when he said, 'I did not have sex with that woman.'" 

IPCC now has 2 definitions for Climate change.

"In the IPCC TAR document WG2SPM.pdf  on page 3 (shortly after item 2.1 for those who access this document in some other format)  ... "Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.""

So now a study on solar output vasriance and climate can be put in with one definition. And as we shift sections of IPCC. Through the magic of IPCC it can become proof of AGW.

I notice it's also not warming but climate change. So a shift back to cool, which seems to be occuring, can be hyped.

I will also point out:

Article 4
requires the rich countries to pay the poor countries (items 3, 4, 5).
The Kyoto Protocol specifically mentions Article 4.
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1362.php

Thanks to Scott Willcoxon

I now realize the warmer issue has nothing to do with the environment. Global Warming is the excuse for a gigantic transfer of money from western and developed nations to the UN and 3rd world. A tax scam.

The democrats are back in town. With more and more evidence that we are past a naturally induced warm period. And apparently more cooling is to come. This will be like watching a 3 ring circus. Barbara Boxer will be screaming the end is near and grinding her ax in sceptic scientists. All as the world cools. She'll be demanding more tax money from you to give to China and India. Because the reality of consumerism is we'll never cut enough. All as the world cools.

I'm going to do like David Wojick. I'm going to make a big bowl of pop corn. Prop up in a comfortable chair and enjoy the circus. This will be amazing.

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."  Albert Einstein

I should have also added Tita

I should have also added Titan with the Moon and Mars oil speculation since we have already confirmed a dense atmosphere of Methane there.  Methane can be created either by biologic or geologic processes.  We have discovered trace Methane (CH4) in the Martian atmosphere, it had to come from some ongoing process since it's residence time is about a 10 years (on earth) before breaking down into CO2 and H2O.  So it is very possible that oil and natural gas deposits exist on Mars. 

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

"...we should also find

"...we should also find oil on the Moon and Mars."  If the same processes that operate on Earth to produce oil also operate there.  We'll have to explore them a bit more to find out...

If we do explore there for oi

If we do explore there for oil. Will we be invading the moon, Mars etc. Will we see "No Martian Blood for Oil" bumper stickers on Hummers. 

"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."  Albert Einstein

Rocks come from dem skulls.

Rocks come from dem skulls.

JDW

Kerry: "You know, education, if you make the most of it ... you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq."

Or allow our own country to d

Or allow our own country to drill our own oil.

wow...20 comments about my co

wow...20 comments about my comment that was censored tdf

this site is hilarious!

Like I said, reduced to snipe

Like I said, reduced to sniper status.

Rhayes

Randy,

Are you honestly that deluded and self-absorbed that you think the discussion at this thread has anything to do with something you wrote that was deleted? This is my post, and I had no idea you had written anything. The message that started the discussion was written by Alger Hiss.

Grow up, Randy. Your childishness here has become laughable, and you have become an embarrassment. Would you please stay at the Howard Stern board? You frankly offer nothing of value here, even as a troll!  ns

rhayes - "Shut up, Randy

rhayes -

"Shut up, Randy!"

-- Donny Baker

This is my post, and I had no

This is my post, and I had no idea you had written anything.

Neither did I, and I kept an eye on this thread from the time it was posted until I left the office at 6:40 last night.  I do not recall anything posted by anyone being censored or deleted during that time, or since, for that matter.

I was just passing a joke along about rhayes' oil fixation, that's all.  I guess waking him up wasn't such a hot idea after all. Sorry.

Since I am now staying away from the M. Savage show and the konspiracy kook section of WND, I guess I will also refrain from waking up certain people.

Geez.

Grow up, Randy. Your childish

Grow up, Randy. Your childishness here has become laughable, and you have become an embarrassment.

How old are you Noel? Have you ever thought that this site is an embarrassment? It  sure helped with the elections!

 Would you please stay at the Howard Stern board?

I will gladly continue writing there also since you all enjoy that site so much!

You frankly offer nothing of value here,

hmm,, yes the 2% that disagrees with the garbage here embarasses your site?? sorry! tdf

 even as a troll!  ns

and we never defined troll according to the neodefinition??

Good job of defending your as

Good job of defending your asertion that you were censored. Did you have bullies take your lunch money today also?

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

It's best to ignore rhayes in

It's best to ignore rhayes in this forum otherwise he brings you waaaay down to his level.

But it's so much fun to tease

But it's so much fun to tease a moonbat into a meltdown.  I can take a shower afterwards and be clean again, the moonbat will always be a moonbat.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

MM

MM,

Did you expect anything else? This guy claims that he actually started this discussion with something that was deleted, is challenged on it, and responds with vitriol rather than a cogent refutation. This is what his ilk have learned so well from their leaders. As such, he's a product of that which he sadly admires. Pretty pathetic.  ns

Noel, actually we got what we

Noel, actually we got what we expected. I just find it strange, the things that randy finds "tdf".

Uses that all the time, sort of like saying "know what I mean", after every sentence.

It's just annyoing and indicitive of a warped sense of humor.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

MM,It was all my fault.  I'm

MM,

It was all my fault.  I'm the one who said to wake him up.  Big mistake. I won't ever do it again, I promise. Scouts Honor........cross my heart and hope to die....if I'm lyin, I'm........etc....etc.

hehe, Dave you should know be

hehe, Dave you should know better than to poke a sleeping pole cat :-)

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Creating an issue is what lib

Creating an issue is what libs do best, otherwise we would all go about our business and be unaware of their existence.  If a tree fell in the forest and no one heard it, would it make a sound?  The essence of liberalism is the knawing feeling of inadequacy wrapped in the fear of uselessness despite any knowledge or wisdom they believe they have to offer.  To be ignored is worse than to be hated, therefore hate or the instigation of hate is a self consuming passion.

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

Creating an issue is what re

Creating an issue is what repubs do best! Lets impeach a man who lied about a blowjob . But we can't make an issue about Bush misleading (neo word for lying) the public into a losing war that Daddy knew was a mistake!

a blowjob cost thousands of sperm but he's caused 100s of thousands of deaths. How does he sleep  at night?

Reply with nothing concerning

Reply with nothing concerning the thread......check

Include random number.......check

Throw out the old "Bush lied" line.......check

Take a dig at the military.......check

Asshat on crooked......check and check

"You're either part of the solution or part of the problem"

rhayes, watch Glen Beck on

rhayes, watch Glen Beck on CNN tonight, if you still think we shouldn't be there because its all about oil (even though we can drill our own) then there is no hope for you.

ok...I did not leave a commen

ok...I did not leave a comment. I was mistaken, Noel. I am sorry. It was amazing how many comments were there about me when I didn't even comment! tdf ;) These essays jump around so much

 Honesty is something that you blokes and the administration aren't comfortable with.

ps. Noel, did you grow up during the Reagan era?

Poorest excuse for a public 

Poorest excuse for a public apology I think I have ever read.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

hmm, maybe George will do a b

hmm, maybe George will do a better public job of apologizing  for getting our country into this mess after he resigns! tdf.

It's best to ignore rhayes in this forum otherwise he brings you waaaay down to his level

How can one get any lower than the neocons are now??

ok...I did not leave a commen

Peak Oil

Yergin and CERA send out a lot of self serving, shallow statements in their press releases.  Only those who pay $1,000 get to see the backup, (which does not include any of the newspapers that carried the release).  Other authoritative sources were having a meeting in Boston during the same week and CERA reps stayed away from it - perhaps not wanting to have their assumptions questioned by people who actually have studied the same data.  For a point-by-point refutation of the CERA press release, read it at ASPO's web site:  http://www.aspousa.org/This is not a "liberal vs. conservative" issue.  One of the better speakers on the issue is Roscoe Bartlett, a Republican congressman from Maryland.  Look up his Feb 8, 2006 presentation to Congress for a good introduction to Peak Oil and how it may affect our economy.  Texas investment banker and oil expert Mathew Simmons is no liberal - he's a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations and also not an environmentalist by any means.  However, he's done 20 years of study on the oil business and agrees with Bartlett and others:  we are at or near the middle of our inherited supply of oil.  We've pumped out all the easy stuff, and what remains is more expensive and harder to extract (being deeper in the ocean, in the arctic or in parts of the world that are politically inhospitable.)   These factors will limit the daily pumping capacity while the demand keeps going up, so the prices of crude oil will go up.  The idea that the earth keeps producing more of the liquid stuff is an attractive dream, but so far no substantive evidence of this has manifested and it remains in the realm of conspiracy theory.  This is important  - read up on it.