On Sunday, for the first time in his presidency, President Obama's approval rating fell to 39% in the latest Gallup poll. In comparison, former President George W. Bush's approval rating didn't fall to 39% until his second term in office in fall 2005. Do you think Obama's approval could fall even lower in the coming months? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
Earlier this month, a Rasmussen poll found that 34.8% of adults consider themselves to be Democrats, so the 39% approval rating could represent Obama's base support group and not fall much lower. However, the low approval rating does prove troubling for Obama's campaign.
As David Paul Kuhn explains at RealClearPolitics,
That’s what Obama’s 39 percent signifies. Republicans may not have to win it. Obama is on track to lose it. [...]
No one number predicts presidential prospects. But if you must pick one, pick the presidential approval rating. There is a range where the floor gives out. There have been 10 incumbent campaigns since the close of the Second World War. Only W won with an approval below 50 percent. Yet Gerald Ford lost in the same range. There's no magic number. But Obama must likely be in, at least, the high 40s to win term two.
Does that mean he’s Grover Cleveland or Carter? It’s worth recalling how bad it got for Carter. His rating bobbed in the low 30s and high 20s in 1979. And Carter still made a race of it. Obama will too. The opponent will matter. Perhaps 39 percent matters most there. It affirms that the right candidate can beat him. Does that fertilize pragmatism? Maybe.
Do you think campaign season will bring new vigor to Obama's numbers? Or do you think his numbers will continue falling?
