Writing on Newsweek's Web site, Jonathan Alter offers up three "pop psych theories" as to why Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire when the media establishment (Alter included) unanimously predicted an Obama victory. To Alter, the mystery is why women voters flocked to Hillary in such large numbers, and his theories range from the patronizing (discounting her First Lady "experience" as irrelevent supposedly "reminded many women of how their own contributions at home have been under-appreciated") to the absurd ("as in any high-school election, the studious girls who show up to vote might harbor a few resentments about the boys").
And Alter makes no effort to square his theories about superficial women voters being moved by esoteric personality issues with the never-ending media mantra about New Hampshire voters being the most sophisticated and probing in the nation (which is why we must take their judgements so seriously). Yet their choice for President supposedly came down to thousands of beleaguered Democratic women who projected their problems in life onto a crying Hillary?
On Monday night before the primary, Alter on PBS's 'Charlie Rose' suggested Hillary could lose by as much as 15 percentage points. Here's an excerpt from his stab at explaining the outcome he did not foresee, headlined "How Hillary Did It," outlining his three theories of what put Clinton over the top:
THE CRY
In 1968, Edmund Muskie famously lost the New Hampshire primary (he actually finished first, but by a disappointingly slender margin) after he cried standing on a platform in front of the Manchester Union Leader after the paper insulted his wife. (Muskie claimed it was snow on his cheeks, but the damage was done and he withdrew soon after).
Whatever actually happened, the 2008 New Hampshire primary will be remembered for Hillary Clinton choking up when describing her everyday struggles. (The original question was about how she got through every morning when things were so tough).
Even many of her harshest critics believed Hillary's emotions were authentic, which was a major advantage for her in closing the "likeability gap" and erasing her image as too controlled and lacking in spontaneity.
THE REESE WITHERSPOON EFFECT
Once Obama won Iowa, he was the certified cool and enormously popular kid in school. But as in any high-school election, the studious girls who show up to vote might harbor a few resentments about the boys. It's like the movie "Election," where Reese Witherspoon's character, Tracy Flick, is an ambitious and too-perfect high school senior who has the election stolen from her after she was expected to win against a cool if inexperienced jock. By the end of the movie, she ends up on top.
FIRST LADY OF THE HOUSE
When Obama and Edwards seemed to minimize Hillary's contributions as first lady, it reminded many women of how their own contributions at home have been under-appreciated in assessing their talents and experience (while he may have seemed at first to help Obama, Edwards wound up helping Hillary in New Hampshire with his initial tone-deaf comment dissing Hillary's now-famous cry as lacking in presidential toughness). But her angry outburst in the ABC News debate made some men think of shrewish ex-wives, it seemed justified to many women, who thought she had reason to be peeved.
In a workplace context, Obama may have reminded women of under-qualified hotshots who come along and get the big job with less experience because they're cooler and have more rapport with the boss and are, after all, men. They rallied to one of their own, just as the Clinton campaign hoped all along.
Does Alter really think this is how New Hampshire voters pick presidents? Or is this just how he thinks typical Democratic voters make their minds up?
