Former IPCC Member Slams UN Scientists' Lack of Geologic Knowledge

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

With each passing day, more and more current and former members of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are stepping out of the shadows to suggest that this group’s alarmist conclusions concerning global warming are more based in myth than science.

Another member of this growing list of skeptics is Tom V. Segalstad who was an Expert Reviewer for the IPCC’s third assessment report.

As published in Canada’s National Post Saturday, conveniently coincident with Al Gore’s Live Earth concerts (emphasis added throughout):

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We are doomed, say climate change scientists associated with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations body that is organizing most of the climate change research occurring in the world today. Carbon dioxide from man-made sources rises to the atmosphere and then stays there for 50, 100, or even 200 years. This unprecedented buildup of CO2 then traps heat that would otherwise escape our atmosphere, threatening us all.

“This is nonsense," says Tom V. Segalstad, head of the Geological Museum at the University of Oslo and formerly an expert reviewer with the same IPCC. He laments the paucity of geologic knowledge among IPCC scientists -- a knowledge that is central to understanding climate change, in his view, since geologic processes ultimately determine the level of atmospheric CO2.

"The IPCC needs a lesson in geology to avoid making fundamental mistakes," he says. "Most leading geologists, throughout the world, know that the IPCC's view of Earth processes are implausible if not impossible."

Most leading geologists know this? But, how can that be true? After all, Al Gore, Sheryl Crow, Laurie David, and Leonardo DiCaprio – despite having absolutely no expertise concerning this matter – say otherwise. As such, why should we care what someone that actually specializes in this field thinks?

Regardless, the article demonstrated how the IPCC has basically created computer models to predict an end result it wanted while totally ignoring current and past scientific observations regarding CO2’s expected life in the atmosphere:

[W]ith the advent of IPCC-influenced science, the length of time that carbon stays in the atmosphere became controversial. Climate change scientists began creating carbon cycle models to explain what they thought must be an excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These computer models calculated a long life for carbon dioxide.

Amazingly, the hypothetical results from climate models have trumped the real world measurements of carbon dioxide's longevity in the atmosphere. Those who claim that CO2 lasts decades or centuries have no such measurements or other physical evidence to support their claims.

Neither can they demonstrate that the various forms of measurement are erroneous.

"They don't even try," says Prof. Segalstad. "They simply dismiss evidence that is, for all intents and purposes, irrefutable. Instead, they substitute their faith, constructing a kind of science fiction or fantasy world in the process."

For those that are interested, this is why anthropogenic global warming is regularly referred to as junk science. As Segalstad stated, rather than base future expectations on known past and present observations, the IPCC has created models to predict future events lacking any historical basis.

The article then explained what has been observed, and why what the IPCC is predicting is so ridiculous:

In the real world, as measurable by science, CO2 in the atmosphere and in the ocean reach a stable balance when the oceans contain 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere. "The IPCC postulates an atmospheric doubling of CO2, meaning that the oceans would need to receive 50 times more CO2 to obtain chemical equilibrium," explains Prof. Segalstad. "This total of 51 times the present amount of carbon in atmospheric CO2 exceeds the known reserves of fossil carbon-- it represents more carbon than exists in all the coal, gas, and oil that we can exploit anywhere in the world."

So, how does the IPCC resolve this conundrum? Better remove all fluids from proximity:

Also in the real world, Prof. Segalstad's isotope mass balance calculations -- a standard technique in science -- show that if CO2 in the atmosphere had a lifetime of 50 to 200 years, as claimed by IPCC scientists, the atmosphere would necessarily have half of its current CO2 mass. Because this is a nonsensical outcome, the IPCC model postulates that half of the CO2 must be hiding somewhere, in "a missing sink." Many studies have sought this missing sink -- a Holy Grail of climate science research-- without success.

Marvelous, wouldn’t you agree? But, not as good as the Professor’s conclusion:

"It is a search for a mythical CO2 sink to explain an immeasurable CO2 lifetime to fit a hypothetical CO2 computer model that purports to show that an impossible amount of fossil fuel burning is heating the atmosphere," Prof. Segalstad concludes.

"It is all a fiction."

Sadly, this fiction is making a lot of people a lot of money, and threatens to have a huge negative impact on the economies of the developed world especially that of the United States.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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Global Warming

Noel,

You are going to make Steve start whining about blowing holes in every aspect of AGW again.

Polazerus,Than perhaps Stev

Polazerus,

Than perhaps Steve will thus be duly motivated to seek out some alternative sources for his environmental calamity theory other than a group that is associated with the most rabid America-hating organization on planet Earth (with the possible exception of our very own Democrat Party, that is).

Help Fred defeat the RINOs, along with the Hitllary-Obama Axis, & win the White House in '08.

Pol

Pol,

I know. However, hopefully he understood from our recent exchange that given the number of holes in AGW theory, the onus should be upon the alarmists to discredit all of the other hypotheses concerning the miniscule increase in temperatures the past 100 years and not vice versa.

On the other hand, as folks like Trenberth and Segalstad come out against the models, maybe intelligent people like Steve will start understanding just how flawed this junk science is. Because these models haven't been initialized to existing observations, the modelers can predict anything they want. And, since their predictions coincide nicely with what the alarmists want, nobody in the media is going to question the inherent inanity. Once again, how convenient.  ns 

And remember. Tremberth as in

And remember. Tremberth as in my post below to sick and tired isn't without question on misrepresenting facts.

But they want us to prove it. And of course we just don't understand. We're too uneducated And don't understand science.

Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge will be shipwrecked by the laughter of the Gods. Albert Einstein

Noel. Don't you understand. O

Noel. Don't you understand. Only qualified climate scientist count. Tim Ball doesn't count. Nor Richard Lindzen.

We have a consensus.

(Taking tongue out of cheek.)

Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge will be shipwrecked by the laughter of the Gods. Albert Einstein

Can anybody direct me to a va

Can anybody direct me to a valid source, as of current, the names of scientists that have defected from the IPCC; particularly those involved in its last 'derivation'. 

Sorry, I don't mean to sound lazy by my request, as I too am going to start looking.  I know of some and will share what I find as well.

What I would find just as imp

What I would find just as important is a list of scientists who actually claim to be a member of the so-called "consensus" on AGW.

James Hansen is the only one who immediately comes to mind. Other than that all I remember hearing about are politicians, celebrities and meteorologists.

Though not a true defector. B

Though not a true defector. But still interesting. Part of Chris Landsea's letter of resignation form IPCC.

Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns...

I had served both as an author for the Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclones more generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC. For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author - Dr. Kevin Trenberth - to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. As I had in the past, I agreed to assist the IPCC in what I thought was to be an important, and politically-neutral determination of what is happening with our climate.

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record.

It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth’s role as the IPCC’s Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make pronouncements far outside current scientific understandings that this will harm the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our role in public policy.

My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues to how he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns... I was disappointed when the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I brought up the misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the authority of the IPCC.

Remember there are a number of scientist who disagree with AGW on IPCC. Including Richard Lindzen. And wasn't it Paul Reiter that threatened to sue IPCC if his name wasn't removed.

Then in your post you ask for "valid source". If this means you'll just brush anything off. Do your own work. If you honestly want to hear who disagrees, you can find a lot here.

Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge will be shipwrecked by the laughter of the Gods. Albert Einstein

A missing sink!!!  LOLHow co

A missing sink!!!  LOL

How convenient...

missing sink, call 911

Maybe it's in the kitchen.

D


I don't support our liberals or their mission.

For those that are interested

For those that are interested, this is why anthropogenic global warming is regularly referred to as junk science.

Its worse than "junk science", much of what I've seen easily qualifies for the term "scientific fraud".

Using poor methodologies and not understanding the data is one thing. Deliberately misrepresenting data because you don't like the real data and making up excuses is fraud.

Noel, don't you understand?

Noel, don't you understand? When you doubt or try to debunk AGW, you make the Baby Jesus cry!

Kahuna

There are persons...who see not the full extent of the evil which threatens them; they solace themselves with hopes that the enemy...will be merciful.

Thomas Paine, Dec. 23, 1776

Typical of junk science

They pick their data to be able to draw the conclusions that they've predetermined they want, and then postulate a fictional process or missing component to help make their numbers believable.

This is why it is so important that the debate be over, because the basic science can not stand up to even the most cursory investigation. This is all part of the socialists plan to confiscate the wealth of the well-to-do nations and people and redistribute it to the poor nations and people while taking their cut of the transfer. They lost their great hope in communism when the USSR collapsed. Now they are trying to take over the environmental movements in order to pomulgate their original plan. many of the leaders of this movement are in the UN and actively trying to further the agenda. Notice that in order for it to work the best, their has to be wealthy countries and there has to be poor countries. That is why the UN is so inept at helping developing countries, because they relly don't want to.

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic

How About a List?

Mr. Sheppard asserts that "With each passing day, more and more current and former members of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are stepping out of the shadows to suggest that this group’s alarmist conclusions concerning global warming are more based in myth than science."

Oh, really? What is your basis for that assertion? An assertion like that calls for source---perhaps a website where names, affiliations and quotations are posted.

I regularly do my homework on what the right is saying about climate change by visiting websites such as NewsBusters. When I began that practice, it didn't take me long to notice that debunker essays repeatedly use the names of about half a dozen irrefutably well-qualified scientists who happen to question all or part of the prevailing paradigm on climate change. Those scientists are, of course, entitled to their opinions. Liberals who claim there is no debate are offbase. But so are conservatives who continually attempt to portray it is a robust debate with lots of scientists on the contrarian side of the argument. That simply is not true, and anybody who "does the Google" beyond the boundaries of the conservative blogosphere knows it.. The vast majority of climate scientists agree that we have a serious problem and that much of that problem derives from our energy choices.

Here are some...Here are so

Here are some...

Here are some more.

The vast majority of scientists used to agree that it was impossible to exceed the speed of sound in an atmosphere.

The vast majority of scientists used to agree that blacks were either an inferior sub-species or a completely different species.

In science it's the data that tells you what the "right" answer is, not some sort of majority opinion.

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic

Don't forget the Flat Earther

Don't forget the Flat Earthers.

The liberal MSM has become an enemy of the USA.

TMC

TMC,

Why don't you start taking your constitutionals elsewhere? I'm sure your droppings would make much more sense to the folks at DKos and DU who know as little about this subject as you: http://www.sitewave.net/pproject/listbystate.htm    ns

I suppose that "sink&q

I suppose that "sink" is as hard to find as Atlantis...or my quarter that I dropped under the car seat.

Noel I've notice so many of t

Noel I've notice so many of the warmers want to pretend this is a democrat vrs republican issue.

Fact is the majority of those who have serious questions about AGWing aren't republicans. In fact they aren't even Americans.  They're British, New Zelanders, Australians, Argentines, Dutch, French, Finns, Belgans and from so so many places. People who question the science rather than follow a parties mantra.

But people want to pretend this is a party issue.

Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of truth and knowledge will be shipwrecked by the laughter of the Gods. Albert Einstein

So I take it you are 100% pro

So I take it you are 100% pro-nuclear? 

Oh, and why "climate change"?  If an asteroid hits earth and changes the climate, is that the fault of the United States?  If numerous volcanoes have Krakatoa-type-explosions around the world, wil, you still be able to blame the United States?

Once again, it isn't about science, it is about YOUR guilt, and your need to control and regiment every single aspect of life possible. 

MAKE WAY FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SPURS!!!  THE 1999, 2003, 2005, AND 2007 NBA CHAMPIONS!!!!

So, takingmyconstitutional, drive-by post, huh?

So, takingmyconstitutional, drive-by post, huh?

"...But so are conservatives who continually attempt to portray it is a robust debate with lots of scientists on the contrarian side of the argument. That simply is not true, and anybody who "does the Google" beyond the boundaries of the conservative blogosphere knows it.. The vast majority of climate scientists agree that we have a serious problem and that much of that problem derives from our energy choices. "

Since we are all idiots, as postulated in your post, and cannot do a google search, ergo your comment:

"...anybody who "does the Google" beyond the boundaries of the conservative blogosphere knows it..."

I'd like to point out that this blog was addressing the faulty 'models' used by the alarmists to scare everyone who is not computer literate into a panic regarding their life style - a life style provided by the most successful country on the planet.

While we are on the subject of the planet, is it going to rain or snow in Mongolia tomorrow?  Don't know?  Don't care.

Point made.

I've attacked the models for all the 'stuff' left out of them.  In other words their simplicity.  But the underlying data of what assumptions the models incorporate is rapidly falling by the wayside as poor, not accurate, incomplete or at the worst made up.

I've got serious information for ya, Mr. constitutional.  Here it is...

Just because the computer technology currently exists for rendering vast bulks of data into a picture of a globe with air currents swirling about - doesn't mean the air currents are predictible.

For example, the simple matter of storms.  Models do not incorporate storms into their swirling air currents.  Why not?  Because they cannot.  The 'science' to do so isn't there.

Storms are nature's way of 'cooling' the atmosphere.  How can one have a 'climate' model and ignore the inner workings of the storm machine?

Well, they just do.

And because it is a computer model people like yourself who are illiterate neo-luddites believe anything people like the anti-capitalist propagandists of the IPCC tell you.

Good luck in the real world.

ACA

...

Quoted from:  'Acaiguana Notes from the Bomb Shelter' (soon to be a movie at theaters near you)

Good comment, but unfortunate

Good comment, but unfortunately he (she, or it) already drove by and ran away and probably won't be back anytime soon.