15-Year-Old Byrnes Outsmarts NASA’s Global Warming Alarmist James Hansen

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

On May 18, NewsBusters introduced you to Kristen Byrnes, the fabulous fifteen-year-old from Maine who had torn apart many of the myths purported by the Global Warmingist-in-Chief, soon-to-be-Dr. Al Gore, in his schlockumentary “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Now, the Precocious Ponderer from Portland is taking on the scientist that Gore relied on for much of his misinformation, James Hansen of NASA.

In her recent report entitled “Houston, We Have a Problem,” Byrnes identified a serious concern with this so-called scientist that many anthropogenic global warming skeptics have been addressing for years (emphasis added throughout):

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James Hansen seems to have a busy life for someone from Iowa. But the real question seems to be is whether or not Hansen is too busy to realize what he is actually saying to the pubic.

As Hansen attempts to seduce, exaggerate, and alarm the public, some people (like me) attempt to inform the public of the reality of global warming, its impacts, and now, the truth behind James Hansen.

Next, Byrnes took on the myth Hansen likes to purport that he is politically independent:

Hansen claims that he is an “independent”, but he seems to be the only person who believes it.  Readers may already be aware of this, but if not… James Hansen was granted a quarter of a million dollars from the Heinz Environment Award a.k.a. U. S. Senator and former Presidential Candidate John Kerry’s wife’s foundation. You know the old saying; “nothing in politics is free.” So my first question is: what did he do to get the quarter of a million dollars? Was it the price for switching his political standing from “independent” to democratic when he later endorsed John Kerry for President? Was it payment for interpreting his department’s data in a way that would benefit his political friends?

More evidence of his connections to the Democratic Party was his endorsement of Al Gore’s presidential campaign in 2000. James Hansen was also a science advisor to Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth.

As kids say these days, “Oh SNAP!”

Marvelously, she was just getting warmed up:

James Hansen is a scientist who admittedly uses scare tactics to convince the public that global warming will be “potentially disastrous”. Consider this statement from Hansen in his own document called “Can We Defuse the Global Warming Time Bomb?” [published in the journal Natural Science] in August of 2003.

Emphasis on extreme scenarios may have been appropriate at one time, when the public and decision-makers were relatively unaware of the global warming issue, and energy sources such as "synfuels," shale oil and tar sands were receiving strong consideration. Now, however, the need is for demonstrably objective climate forcing scenarios consistent with what is realistic under current conditions. Scenarios that accurately fit recent and near-future observations have the best chance of bringing all of the important players into the discussion, and they also are what is needed for the purpose of providing policy-makers the most effective and efficient options to stop global warming.

Fascinating, wouldn't you agree? What Hansen wrote in 2003 was that he used to advocate lying to the public and policy makers to get them to act. Yet, we should believe his prognostications now because he’s decided it’s suddenly important to be truthful.

Right.

To demonstrate how Hansen clearly is still operating from his prior modus operandi regarding the need to exaggerate to impact the debate, Byrnes pointed out the following deliciously inconvenient truth:

It is important to understand that global warming has been measured in tenths of degrees, .77 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years. There has been a great deal of controversy about the accuracy of the temperature data, mainly the bias of temperature data due to urban heat island effect. This controversy has lead many to focus on rural temperature stations. Rural stations are intended to represent the cool breezy countryside, small towns, farms, trees and grass. 

In recent weeks, researchers have been visiting these temperature stations. What they noticed was that there are serious problems with the quality of these temperature stations. They noticed that many of these temperature stations were located next to concrete buildings, near hot exhausts of air conditioning units, attached to metal towers and poles, surrounded by driveways and above gravel.

How delicious. And, here’s the excruciatingly painful punch line: 

The photos of these temperature stations are not just a few of many; they are the first few dozen that have been visited. About 80% of the temperature stations that have been visited and photographed have serious quality problems. This brings up some more questions: How many tenths of a degree will temperatures rise when the thermometer is near the hot exhaust of an AC unit? Or how about when it is located above gravel or near a paved road or driveway? How many tenths of a degree will the temperature rise when the thermometer is above pavement and surrounded by buildings (no wind)? And in one case, as documented by the photograph below, how many tenths of a degree will the temperature rise when the caretaker of the facility burns trash in a metal barrel just 5 feet away from the temperature station?

                                 

For those interested, more pictures of these stations can be found here.

Now, putting this is some perspective, given the position and location of some of these stations, wouldn’t this be a fabulous thing for investigative journalists to be reporting? Can’t you just imagine a segment about this on “60 Minutes,” “20/20,” or “Dateline?” Why do you think that hasn’t happened?

Or, is it the job of fifteen-year-olds to point out that which adults find too inconvenient?

Brava, Kris. Brava!

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.


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Oh SNAP!!!

Oh SNAP!!!

ROTFLMAO!!  Yeah, that &quot

ROTFLMAO!!  Yeah, that "Oh SNAP" hit the ol' funny bone just right!  Nice one Noel!

Out loud belly laugh!

There's a great new show on F

There's a great new show on Fox broadcast: Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?

Rochester, Minnesota: A Fem_Leftist City!

How does one get to be iden

How does one get to be identified as "of NASA" and at the same time get $250,000.00 for political work, "independent" or not? Aren't there rules for government employees like the "Hatch Act," which (except in the case of the drugwar, at least...) purport to prevent them from using US government job-titles when engaged in political advocacy?? If anything, for purposes of comment on this issue, he should be "of the Heinz foundation"?
JMR

Simple credibility. Who are

Simple credibility. Who are you going to believe more; the Catsup man or the NASA man? And who is going to fall harder when debunked? It seems NB and the MSM are using the same association for different purposes.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

As a former government employ

As a former government employee. We were prohibited from taking part in politics; by law. Including lobbying. Now I worked for the state rather than the feds. Aren't the federal employees covered by a similar law?

If there is? How does Hanson get away with it?

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Hatch act -employees may

These federal and D.C. employees
may-

  • be candidates for public office in nonpartisan elections 
  • register and vote as they choose
  • assist in voter registration drives
  • express opinions about candidates and issues(my Bold)
  • contribute money to political organizations
  • attend political fundraising functions
  • attend and be active at political rallies and meetings
  • join and be an active member of a political party or club (my Bold)
  • sign nominating petitions
  • campaign for or against referendum questions, constitutional amendments, municipal
    ordinances
  • campaign for or against candidates in partisan elections
  • make campaign speeches for candidates in partisan elections  (my Bold)
  • distribute campaign literature in partisan elections
  • hold office in political clubs or parties

These federal and D.C. employees
may not-

  • use official authority or influence to interfere with an election
  • solicit or discourage political activity of anyone with business before their agency
  • solicit or receive political contributions (may be done in certain limited situations by
    federal labor or other employee organizations)
  • be candidates for public office in partisan elections
  • engage in political activity while:
    • on duty
    • in a government office 
    • wearing an official uniform
    • using a government vehicle 
  • wear partisan political buttons on duty

Hatch Act for Federal Employees  U.S. Office of Special Counsel

My guess is that this is fr

My guess is that this is framed as a "scientific" debate, rather than a political debate. Therefore the funding source doesn't matter?

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Endorsing someone for preside

Endorsing someone for president isn't scientific. It's political. Civil servants have been fired for having a candidates sign in their yard. Or a bumper sticker.

As I pointed out. Lobbying was also included. If I called a rep. and suggested he vote for a specific bill, that was lobbying. And illegal.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

"Endorsing someone for

"Endorsing someone for president isn't scientific"

Of course it's not, that's why I said it is being "framed" as scientific. Just more cover up for what really goes on in politics. Believe me, I am not trying to defend the guy for being a stooge for the Democrats.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Yes. It's called the Hatch A

Yes. It's called the Hatch Act. And most federal employees take it very seriously inasmuch as the violation threshold is quite low.

Is Hansen currently a federal employee? If so, what exactly has he been doing in the political world and for how long?

Mainer to Mainer

Believer

Suppose she is schooled at HOME? What are the chances? If not, the rest of nation better take a look at her public school's credentials.

Wow, what a great story and great insight and depth of research, if only we could expect the same from our msm/AP "reporters." Go Kris.

Interesting question. She

Interesting question. She thinks and writes much more clearly than Al, and obviously is unafraid of prevailing opinion. Doesn't speak well of his prep-school - Ivy League education.

I observed the other day that

I observed the other day that Eli Rabett had done a bait-and-switch, in which Eli showed a picture of a well-located new station at Niwot Ridge (started only in 2003) as a supposed refutation of criticisms of incinerators, barbecues and tennis courts at USHCN stations. In response, Eli observed his right to “carrot pick”. Rosanne D’Arrigo once told an astonished NAS panel that you have to pick cherries if you want to make cherry pie and I guess the same applies to carrots.  (Emphasis mine)

Now that is just devastating to any scientific means of evaluating the data.  These people actually literally admit to cherry picking the data!!!!

Well folks, that's strike 3! 

Strike 1: Debunking of Mann's Hockey stick, melding incompatable and incongruent data sources.

Strike 2: Debunking of CO2 curve, melding incompatable and incongruent data sources (ice cores at zero feet elevation to Mauna Loa (volcano) at 16,000ft elevation.)

Strike 3: Now the debunking of Temp. data used for Global Average Temp. by again cherry picking data.

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

There's an added issue you mi

There's an added issue you missed here. Note the box the weather station is in.

These boxes are designed to minimize heat buildup. But heat does build up in them. Used to be. To get a reading. Someone had to go to these boxes at a specific time. Open it up and look at the thermometer. The act of opening it up allowed the heat buildup to escape. Lowering the temperture.

Now there's remote sensing. You read the temp or it's automaticly recorded somewhere else. No one opens it up. The heat never escapes. I believe Dr Vincent Gray has discussed it a number of times.

And as you point out. Any so called increase is in fractions of a degree.

There are strange things going on at NASA. Old data is being changed. I believe Stalin said something like. The future is known. the question is what the past said.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Wow!!!

Kudos again !!! Way to go Kristen !!!

If conservatives are RIGHT, then liberals must be WRONG.

"Can’t you just imagin

"Can’t you just imagine a segment about this on “60 Minutes,” “20/20,” or “Dateline?” Why do you think that hasn’t happened?"

Because when it comes to certain topics, it's not what you know -- it's who you know, and who you want to kowtow to. The MSM has no interest in discussion 0.77 degrees over a century of time, and corresponding variability and error rates associated with measurement devices. Looking too deeply at that would bust their template, and give them no access to the who's of the world.

Add to that  - the msm (Lsm)

Add to that  - the msm (Lsm) are cowards - reporting truth, that goes against their agenda, will never see the light of day. They will NEVER report - they can only editorialize, and then they wonder why they lose viewers and readers, so on top of being cowardly, their losers too.

Those of you who consider yourselves "reporters" need to prove to us, the public you say you inform, respond please to the acusation that you are cowards - that my friends is a double dog dare!

There is no sense in being stupid, if you can't prove it! - my dad V

Fortunately we don't live in Whoville!

Fortunately we all don't live in Whoville!

 Carbon Credits Smoke'em if you got'em!

Exactly

Great follow-up Noel....hope we hear alot more from Kool Kris.

I thought it was very telling that NASA chief Michael Griffin was recently pressured into offering an apology/regret for his recent remark; “I am not sure that it is fair to say that it (GW) is a problem we must wrestle with.”

As far as Hansen's drift from science to the political, a statement from Griffin's "apology" somewhat confirmed that assessment; "unfortunately, this (GW) is an issue which has become far more political than technical...."

Exactly.

I always found it curious tha

I always found it curious that the digital temps recorded today in Central Park and other places, are compared to the inth degree to the readings from the thick mercury thermometers they used 100 years ago.

My globes are warming, baby! - Al Gore on his honeymoon

"Scenarios that accurate

"Scenarios that accurately fit recent and near-future observations have the best chance of bringing all of the important players into the discussion..."  What discussion?  I thought the debate was over and the science was settled.  I thought there was a consensus.  Or, is what Hansen wants to discuss the method of redistribution of wealth from our country to other countries or how to most efficiently destroy the United States economy?

As for the United States being responsible for the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the U.S. is a net carbon sink.  U.S. forests have been a net carbon sink since 1952.  Additionally, U.S. agricuture is also a net carbon sink.  In other words, the alarmists are lying to us about the evil United States being responsible for all of their doomsday scenarios.  The United States is a net carbon sink, that is, the U.S. is sequestering more carbon in its forests and agricultural lands than it is producing in its manufacturing and transportation processes.

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

Well Done, Ms. Byrnes!  Some

Well Done, Ms. Byrnes!  Somebody get her on a talk show!

"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."

-- Fred Thompson as Admiral Josh Painter (The Hunt for Red October)

Kristen Barnes

It's so easy, even a 15 year old can figure it out!

WTG, Kristen

"Where's the Fence?"

Ya'll need to sign this girl

Ya'll need to sign this girl up Noel!!

This is Great!!!!!

If you're reading this Kris

If you're reading this Kristen, keep up the good work!

I've got a thermometer attached to the outside of my garage. There's no way I could ever use it for reliable temperature readings, because it always reads too hot. I'm talking 10 degrees F too hot. And it's always in the shade. I looked at the pictures of weather station placement in the links on her site. Some of them were worse than my garage.

It's pathetic. I'll bet you that CBS, NBC, CNN, etc. are constantly monitoring and demanding evidence from Nielson that their ratings information isn't being corrupted by their data gathering procedures. But when it comes to reporting historical weather data, they just take it as gospel and never question how accurate it is.

A bachelor's degree from a

A bachelor's degree from a private university - $110,000

A doctorate degree from a prestigous university - $250,000

Being publicly humiliated and made to look a complete fool by a 15 year old - PRICELESS

Some things, money can buy. For everything else, there are 15 year olds.

HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

OMG!! Having your intellect publicly pummeled by a 15 year old!!!

It just doesn't get any better than this!!

HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

This makes my day!! Thanks Noel! I needed a little uplifting today.  And this was just what the doctor ordered.  I owe you one.

While I agree with the thru

While I agree with the thrust of your argument, certain elements in your post could be mistaken for a tad nuts in the They're Coming To Take Me Away variety.

You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll talk jive! Just check out my latest YouTube video Hillary Clinton Talks Jive

hmmmm..... perhaps I did ge

hmmmm..... perhaps I did get a tad carried away. My apologies. But you have to admit, this is just tooooooooooooooooo d@mn funny!! Way to go Kristen!!

apache -- no insult intende

apache -- no insult intended buddy! I agree!

Just thought one pahahagraph was perfect, two was maybe straying into Rosie lalaland. But what do I know!

You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll talk jive! Just check out my latest YouTube video Hillary Clinton Talks Jive

jack...IHD

Jack, I humbly disagree. I think Apache expressed what we have all thought and felt but were too timid to post...okay, maybe NOT.

I still think the post ROCKS !!!

lol

lol

Temperature's rising

Several years ago they moved the thermometer for Phoenix and put it in a place that caused the average temperatures to rise 3 full degrees. It was the hottest summer on record for Phoenix. They have since moved it to a cooler spot. Location does matter!!!!!

Our real problem, then, is not our strength today; it is rather the vital necessity of action today to ensure our strength tomorrow. Dwight Eisenhower

Makes me proud to live in Mai

Makes me proud to live in Maine!!

On Maine and media run

The sad thing is that the media won't give her the same run they gave Samantha Smith...

But they should.  Miss Byrnes and her work should be taken as a sign by all that America has a bright and shining future. 

THIRTEEN DOWN, THREE TO GO...(until the SPURS' FOURTH RING!!!)

Fire hazard

I am concerned that the fire barrel is on top of the wooden skid.  Shouldn't the fire marshall be checking that out?

Our real problem, then, is not our strength today; it is rather the vital necessity of action today to ensure our strength tomorrow. Dwight Eisenhower

I heard from one of the volun

I heard from one of the volunteers who called the location and shared your concern. I understand that the incinerator is completely up to the local fire code and the barrel is used often in the location photographed.

I have been to her website an

I have been to her website and have to say that Kristen is one of the young people that give me hope for our future.  On her website it has the statement of her work having common sense injected into it,  This is one thing that seems to be missing in the liberal's emotional view of this subject.  Very well done Kristen! 

Also the commentary regarding other's "higher" education costs and being positively slammed by a 15 year old (priceless) was just a hoot! 

I really enjoyed this one today.  Thanks Noel.

This was worth the price of admission!

 

Siting Temperature Stations

I would say its probable that this audit of temperature stations will show a statistically significant number of defective conditions. The process of siting the stations naturally leads to this situation. Gaining fenced easments with vehicular access make sites co-located with things like cell towers and electric substations attractive.

In many cases easments may not be available on the best sites.

Supposedly, the University

Supposedly, the University of Minnesota is going to give Fat Al an honorary doctorate. Seems to me this young lady deserves it more. She seems to know more about the climate and the scientific method than either Gore or Hansen.

More and more, Gore reminds me of Jabba the Hut.

A promenant scientist from NASA

just got "schooled" by a 15 year old! How marvelous! Kristen gives me hope that the future is going to be better than I fear and also I think, points out one of the major problems at NASA. Kristen shows that there are some young people who can think and intelligently research an issue. She also points out that NASA has at least one scientist who is so ideologically driven that the scientific method has been abandoned. I wonder how many other "scientists" at NASA are driving decisions based on ideology and dogma rather than science and investigation?

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic

wyoming...latest AGW dupes???

Wyoming, the latest to be duped by AGW talk...not likely.

I think the proof is in the weather.

Go Kristen go Kristen go Kris

Go Kristen go Kristen go Kristen go Kristen ...

Problem with Urban Heat Island effect

To remove any possible Urban Heat Island effect from their temperature trends, NASA GISS remove any such spurious signals by normalizing urban stations to surrounding rural stations. Any stations with anomalous data are dropped. The result is the following map of surface temperature anomaly for 2005 (the redder areas show greatest temperature rise):

Contrast it with this composite of satellite photos of earth at night which shows the heavily populated areas on the planet.

There's no correlation between urbanisation and warming.

Your post has me a little c

Your post has me a little confused.

First, precisely what to you mean by "There's no correlation between urbanisation and warming."

Second, thank you for the links. They were most informative. If I go to your first link, http://data.giss.nas... I find this statement - "Our analysis concerns only temperature anomalies, not absolute temperatures." Followed by this gem - "Hence we can combine anomalies from various stations to find regional mean nomalies."

It would appear to the layman that instead of removing the spurious signals, they are combining them. But perhaps I am reading this wrong.

And we also find on that page this shocker - "Regional absolute temperatures however cannot be obtained from observations alone." Hmmmm.... that piqued my curiosity. So I had to follow the link in the following sentence - For a more detailed discussion, see The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature.

The title alone is most intriguing. "The ELUSIVE absolute surface air temperature." From listening to the AGW crowd, I had no idea the absolute surface temperature was ELUSIVE. I thought it was anything but elusive. I thought they had it pinpointed to the tenth of a degree. Not only do they have it nailed down to the tenth of a degree, but they can tell us what the temperature will be in 50 years. An impressive feat. Especially considering the elusive nature of the target.

Given that I have already made one post today that was in bad form, I won't post the contents of the link. But I encourage everyone to go here - http://data.giss.nas... and read it.

Thank you for pointing those pages out.

Clarifying anomalies

ApacheIP, apologies, I can see where the confusion comes from. When I was refering to "stations with anomalous data", I meant stations that might have corrupted temperature data (eg - the weatherman at that station is cooking a BBQ underneath the thermometer).  That has nothing to do with the term "temperature anomaly" which refers to temperature trends. You'll find all climate graphs of temperature don't actually display absolute temperatures but the "Temperature Anomaly" which is the temperature difference from some point in time (I think sometime around 1970). I'll try to be more precise with my wording next time.

Re NASA normalising urban stations to surrounding rural stations, I was refering to this quote from the NASA site:

"We modify the GHCN/USHCN/SCAR data in two stages to get to the station data on which all our tables, graphs, and maps are based: in stage 1 we try to combine at each location the time records of the various sources; in stage 2 we adjust the non-rural stations in such a way that their longterm trend of annual means is as close as possible to that of the mean of the neighboring rural stations. Non-rural stations that cannot be adjusted are dropped."

What I mean by "no correlation between urbanisation and warming" is if you look at the map of temperature anomalies, you don't see the hottest temperature rises over the urban areas - which is what you'd get if urban heat island effect was exacerbating global warming records.

Your then admit. They are adj

Your then admit. They are adjusting the tempertures. And as has been pointed out. the models have been used to formulate the adjustment. Therefore if the model is wrong... The adjustment is wrong...

Sounds like we can put a lot of faith in the numbers coming out of Hanson's office. He tells us he adjusts the numbers to handel our concerns. So they must be right.

You can say it's right that the concerns are handled. But sounds like you're trying to sell us a bridge, while wrapping yourself in a cloak of science.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Thank you for replying Mr.

Thank you for replying Mr. Cook. If I get the opportunity, I want to sit down and thoroughly digest all of the info. But today is booked to the max. :(

I'm still a little baffled by their circular argument and I would like to intelligently convey my concerns. But it will take time (and if you believe my ex-wife, a miracle) to compose my thoughts.

The short version is this. I'm not comfortable with the concept that the "individual" readings can be incorrect (a fact which they acknowledge) but that the overall regional mean anomaly is to be taken as reliable. I am not comfortable with that. Yes, I know they say that they drop readings that are not within a certain range, but they don't say what that range is and they don't provide any additional detail on precisely how they determine which readings to drop.

I am an ex Instructor Pilot. That is the "IP" portion of my nickname. Most airfields are located outside of the main city. Most airfields are surrounded by beautiful green grass. And I can tell you from personal experience that there is a HUGE difference between the temperature on the grass and the temperature on the ramp (the airfield). A HUGE difference. The worst part of every flight was the time spent baking on the ramp while doing the pre-flight. It is hot, hot, hot standing on all of that concrete and asphalt. D@mn hot!

I only mention this because it is important to understand my "baggage" so to speak. It gives you an idea where I am coming from.

I would LOVE to see a map of all temperature stations for the State of New York. Transposed upon that map I would like to see all of the temperature stations who had one or more readings "dropped" within a 24 hour period. Perhaps a map where stations whose readings were not dropped were depicted in the color blue, and stations which had readings that were dropped were depicted in red.

If I could see such a map, that would go a LONG way to allieviating my concerns. Does such a map exist?

Sirs and Ladies:many years ag

Sirs and Ladies:

many years ago i had a conversation with a highly placed and experienced fellow in Quality Assurance. he had been associated with a program trying to track down all of the variences in temperature in temperature controlled rooms. (the ones where they do extremely accurate measurement of metal parts.)

they were looking for 69 degrees F. they found that temperature was the worst thing that our society tries to measure to do accurately.

they saw things like the observer bending over to look at a thermometer (remember this was in the early fifties) to record the temperature effected the thermometer readings. so they installed mechanical drum type recording thermometers and found that the act of winding the spring that ran the thing raised the temperature by the mechanical friction in the mechanism.

and so i can see that feeding a herd of cattle fifty yards up wind of one of these recording stations for a winter, would cause a 2 degree rise in temperature which cascading down the data stream would indicate a trend, which could be interpeted as a movement.

and so we have one degree of global warming occouring in twenty years because a herd of cattle took a dump in valier montana in the middle of a blizzard.

way to much opportunity for fraud in this one gang.

Weather data jiggery

I've enjoyed our discussion, Apache. You're very reasonable and raise legitimate concerns - I'm still trying to figure out some of the language on the GISS website also (I remember when I first read that "elusive SAT page" a while back, thinking "what the?!"). I think that's what happens when you get nerds and physicists trying to explain their science in simple language.

From what I can gather from the GISS website, the computer modelling is employed to forecast future temperatures and extrapolate if they're trying to build a map of temperatures over a region (eg - project what the temperature is in an area where they don't have stations). But for historical temperatures and calculations of mean temperatures, they use hard data. As for the statistical jiggery they perform on the data, it's completely normal to filter empirical data to get it in some kind of meaningful form and filter out the noise.

As for maps of New York temperature stations, sorry, I don't know of any (but haven't looked). In my travels, I often see observatories make their data downloadable off their website and have thought about grabbing some and having a play with the data (I have an unnaturally nerdy fascination with statistics and graphs). But specific weather station data? I don't know. I have a friend who works for the Bureau of Meterology - he's one of the guys who releases a weather balloon each day to measure atmospheric temperatures. I'll ask him if he knows if that kind of data is available to the public. Of course he's Australian so I doubt he'll know of US weather data (but he did marry a girl from New York if that makes any difference).

I too have enjoyed it Mr. C

I too have enjoyed it Mr. Cook. There is little in life that I enjoy more than an animated, yet completely civil, debate.

I don't have much time right now. I have to go visit a friend who is stressed out. He is a little too close the very edge for a friend to ignore. His wife is ill, it is end of quarter at work (VERY stressful in the electronics manufacturing industry), and he has to fly to China on business this coming Monday. I have to go find out what I can do help.

I do want to throw out two things in the little time I have.

1. I read as much of Kristen's first report as I could. It was very in depth and very professional. I was impressed beyond words. She has a no nonsense, common sense approach to science. And her conclusions aligned precisely with what my gut tells me to be true. And if there is one thing I have learned in my many years, it is follow your gut. The thing never lies and has never been wrong that I can recall. Every time I have been too stupid to listen to it, I have regretted it. And did you know that Kristen predicted the end of the drought in Australia while all of the other forecasters were still predicting more drought? You have to give credit where credit is due.

2. One of the arguments that we constantly hear is that predicting "climate" is oh so different than predicting "weather". Which, to  be honest, my big gut just wasn't buying.  And now, after reading those links, I discover that regional temperature anomalies, which are used in predicting climate, have as one of their underpinnings, the exact same computer modeling used in forecasting weather. They appear to want to have it both ways. They want to claim that the science used in modeling climate is different than the science used in modeling, ALL THE WHILE quietly using the exact same science that is used in modeling/forecasting weather. That doesn't help their credibility.

Got to run. I hope everyone has a stellar weekend.

The New York historical temps

The New York historical temps can be found by clicking on the world map on the following site. Just click on the NY area. And a list appears with the time frame available for those sites.

http://data.giss.nas...

As Syracuse
http://data.giss.nas...

Ithica Cornell
http://data.giss.nas...

Though not in NY , I like the one nearest my home.
http://data.giss.nas...

No "global" warming here.

The intro page also charts the history of the number of stations used to analyze. There have been far fewer since the 80's.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Straighten me out if I'm wron

Straighten me out if I'm wrong. But I'm assuming this is San Juan International. Which does show a fair bit of warming. But does something look suspicious here?

http://data.giss.nas...

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Cooling in San Juan

Danbo, many thanks for the link to the temperature records - a great resource - although that initial link gives an internal server error. Re the San Juan record which seems to indicate cooling in recent years, that was the point of my initial post. Global warming doesn't mean every point of the earth is warming at the same rate. Different parts warm at different rates and some places even cool. What I was initially trying to get at (somewhat incoherently perhaps) was if you compare the map of temperature rise with a satellite photo of earth at night, you see no correlation between where temperature rise is greatest and the areas of urbanisation (eg - USA, Europe, the east coast of South America, east Asia). If UHI effect was driving global warming records, the urbanised areas would display greater temperature rises.

For some reason, I wasn't get

For some reason, I wasn't getting the comment control bar last night. Let me try to get you that link again. Here.

My concern with the San Juan/Int trend has nothing to do with the cooling since 1980. Though it is interesting. The world does seem to have been steady-cooling since 1998 with all that extra CO2.

I guess you don't see the other problem. The one that really concerns me. Far more serious. The time frame. 1899-2007 for data. When was Kitty Hawk?

You  must have the data for two or more seperate locations being combined in one.

There are so many problems in this data set. "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Awesome links, Danbo! Than

Awesome links, Danbo! Thank you. I wish I had more time to comment, but I don't. :(

I just wanted to let you know that I saw them and I looked at them. And I enjoyed the comparison between those two cities that are something like 50 miles apart (going off the lat long).

Has anyone on the AGW side ever addressed that?

I have to post one more comment and then get back to work. No rest for the wicked.

Gut feeling

I hear you - I don't have much time either which is why there's often gaps between my posts here. In fact, I spend way too much time reading and discussing AGW online (my wife disapproves of how preoccupied I get). I hope your friend is okay and you're able to help him out.

I find your comments about gut reaction intriguing as I've been ruminating on this very topic a lot lately. I've been chatting with a lot of AGW skeptics and noticed various reasons for their skepticism. Political reasons like distrust of Al Gore or socialist agendas have nothing to do with the actual science of what's causing global warming. But when you get past that and start talking science, I get the impression that at the heart of global warming skepticism is an aversion to alarmism. Greenies and the media have burned us before - the ice age in the 70's, the ozone hole, Y2K. There's the sense that AGW is just another case of alarmism. That's the impression I get but I welcome any other perspectives. 

Thank you for the well wish

Thank you for the well wishes for my friend. He seemed better last night. I volunteered to absorb some of his work load and assured him that the kids and I would visit his wife while he is in China. And I will see him again today. Sometimes people just need a sympathetic ear.

Short on time, as usual. My skeptism is more than just their horrible track record and my gut level response. It is sooooo much more than that. My global warming bookmarks folder must have 70-80 links in it. Most of which point out either faults in the science, or issues not addressed by the science, or SERIOUS faults on how this is being handled by the U.N. There are very serious allegations by scientists who used to assist with the IPCC reports that have NEVER been addressed. These scientists claim that the whole thing is agenda driven and not science driven. And I believe them.

Anywho, I noticed that Kristen has volunteered to join the discussion. I hope it is the real Kristen. Assuming that it is the real Kristen, I should bow out.

She knows much more about the science than I do. And the original post was about her. Etiquette requires that I get out of the way and let her have the whole stage.

Kristen, before I go, I would like to offer some advice to a young person who has such amazing potential. You should take a LONG hard look at how these scientists have gotten themselves into the corner that they are in. I am assuming that you don't want to find yourself in the same corner some day. Is that a fair statement?

So spend a little time and try to figure out why they are making the claims that they make. Seek the counsel and wisdom of your parents on this one. Seek the counsel and wisdom of some of us "ancient" people that you trust.

I think that some of them fell in love with their own reports/predictions. I don't mean that they are "proud" of their work. I mean that they are literally in "love" with their work. And that has blinded them. It is okay to be proud of your work. And in your case, you definitely should be. But it is an entirely different thing when you fall in love with your product. Then you become quite defensive of it. When that happens, the focuse stops being the science and it turns into defending your product. You are on the road to doom when you allow that to happen.

And I believe that some of these scientists are in love with the money that flows their way if they will just "say the right thing". It is complicated and sorted, but there are reasons why that happens far more frequently than it should.

Anyway, time for me to bow out. The stage is all yours. Remember, this is the Internet and its memory is eternal. Choose your words carefully and don't say anything that you might later wish you had not.

You make the claim that, &q

You make the claim that, "NASA GISS remove any such spurious signals by normalizing urban stations to surrounding rural stations."

However, following your links, I was unable to substantiate that claim. Do you have a direct link to substantiate your claim?

Thank you.

This is very interesting!

This is very interesting! In a circular sort of way.

Following your first link - normalizing urban stations to surrounding rural stations I find these statements -

"Our analysis concerns only temperature anomalies, not absolute temperatures. The temperature anomaly tells us how much warmer or colder than normal it is at a particular place and point in time, the 'normal temperature' being the mean over
many (30) years (same place, same time of year). It seems obvious that to find the anomaly, you first have to know the current and normal absolute temperatures."

And when I follow this link from that same page - The Elusive Absolute Surface Air
Temperature
. I find this paragraph -

"Q. What do I do if I need absolute SATs, not anomalies ?
A. In 99.9% of the cases you'll find that anomalies are exactly
what you need, not absolute temperatures. In the remaining
cases, you have to pick one of the available climatologies
and add the anomalies
(with respect to the proper base period)
to it. For the global mean, the most trusted models produce
a value of roughly 14 Celsius, i.e. 57.2 F, but it may
easily be anywhere between 56 and 58 F and regionally, let
alone locally, the situation is even worse."

So, as odd as this seems, they seem to be saying that to determine the anomaly, "you first have to know the current and normal absolute temperatures" and then they turn around and say, that to determine the absolute SAT, surface air temperature, you have to "pick one of the available climatologies and add the anomalies".

Now I am fairly certain that I understand what they are trying to say, but you have to admit that they do themselves no favors with this kind of contradictory circular explanation.

Not really an apparent big deal. I just thought it was funny.

However, I did find this quote very, very interesting -

"Q. If SATs cannot be measured, how are SAT maps created ?
A. This can only be done with the help of computer models, the same
models that are used to create the daily weather forecasts. We may
start out the model with the few observed data that are available
and fill in the rest with guesses
(also called extrapolations)
and then let the model run long enough so that the initial
guesses no longer matter, but not too long in order to avoid
that the inaccuracies of the model become relevant. This may be
done starting from conditions from many years, so that the
average (called a 'climatology') hopefully represents a typical
map for the particular month or day of the year."

Yeah. That paragraph made me feel all better. Now I have no doubt that they have a real handle on the situation. (that was sarcasm, in case you weren't sure)

lol- good job ApacheIP

lol- good job ApacheIP.

In order to find the raging extreme weather we will call global warming, only take your most extreme temperature readings, then slap them onto our sliding scale adjusted mean SAT that comes from former extreme temp reads or guesses shoved into a computer and stopped before the run rages of out of control (our "stopslop scientific" method), and report to the IPCC and Al Gore sensationalized loons and grant keepers will be very excited.

 We like to keep this as flexible as possible not only for hyperactive future disaster fear mongering and monetary grant acquisitions, but because we have such a hard time predicting the weather correctly. Remember, use only the extremes, then report to us the "change". If average reasonable temps are down a degree all year on unremarkable days, don't worry, the extremes will show us what we need.

In layman's terms, they cooke

In layman's terms, they cooked the numbers (using a computer model) according to their receipe to come up a temperature that fits their taste.  Does that about summarize the process? 

It is no wonder they continue to claim this or that year is the hotest, there is essentially no data set they have that isn't massaged in some way to get a number.  Basically what we are saying here is that any temperature they give you is the result of a complex statistical formulation where they manipulate the formulas and data for the desired result.  That's not anyone's idea of relevance, at least not to normal people.

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

Apache. Great job. It's inter

Apache. Great job. It's interesting what you find, when you chase their links. And the links there.

A number of months back. We were given a link to a book published by the  publishing section of AAS. Pretending it's the official statement of the ASS. As though Lindzen and Chrissy agreed with it.

When I tracked down the the "Scientific Grpup" that actually wrote it. And Tracked down the boardmembers, I found people who were planning to make big bucks selling carbon credits. 

The AGWers. Must be right. And all problems resolved. They give us numbers and tell us the numbers are right. So they must be right.

Their house of sand is crumbling.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

This does not fill me with c

This does not fill me with confidence. 

So there is no such thing as absolute surface air temperature.  This is presumably due to the difficulties collecting accurate data at all times in all locations.

But the un-absolute temperature is then compounded by the input of computer models?  Computer models do not generate facts or actual data. 

The problems with data collection are understandable.  But it is not acceptable to conclude that the global temperature has risen .77 of a degree over the last 100 years on the basis of less than absolute data and then go on to say, we must implement all these onerous taxes and curbs on CO2, 'cause look, the planet got warmer and we must be causing it (with our 6% contribution to greenhouse gas emissions).

Good job, ApacheIP.

Many centuries ago, the han

Hey Cook, many centuries ago the handlers of a very young Chinese emperor would paw though his feces, looking for anomalies with which to judge his health. I'm pretty sure this is the same technique-- different feces, though --being used here.

How do you quantify "urbanisation?" Cigarette butts per square meter? Starbucks-squared per soccer mom? Drug needles per lawn mower?

When was the last time anyone saw James Hansen in a stall by himself? Hmmmm?

So if I understand you correc

So if I understand you correctly, they normalize urban stations (surrounded by blacktop and the like) with rural stations that are biased by the same problems. That was the point of the article; the rural stations are so aweful that they are no different than the urban stations. We just took a look at all of the stations in Maine. About half are in open fields, the others are in the same kind of urban environment. None of these temperature stations are in a wooded forest, but Maine is 70% wooded forest. The eastern half of the state (the coolest) has no temperature stations. This is ridiculous.

Proving Urban Heat Island Effect

Firstly, Kristen, let me as Apache says give credit where credit is due. I've read much of your website and am gobsmacked at the thorough job you've done. I have a 7 year old daughter and if at 15 she shows half the intelligence and initiative you display, I'll be a very proud dad (and our discussions on AGW at the dinner table will be something to behold). If you are actually the one going out and taking photos of those weather stations, I'm even more impressed.

But if you want to prove Urban Heat Island effect is having significant impact on temperature records, you'll need to be more rigorous than taking photos of weather stations which is quite an anecdotal approach. You need to perform statistical analysis on the actual temperature anomaly records of a wide number of stations, comparing data of urban to rural stations in the same region.

This kind of statistical analysis has already been done by the NCDC who performed statistical analysis of urban and rural temperature anomalies and concluded "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures. Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions." Another more recent study (Parker 2004) published in Nature concludes "temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development".

Statistics aside, current temperature trends has been confirmed from multiple, independent sources and measuring techniques. Surface temperature analysis by NASS GISS estimates surface temperatures have risen "almost 0.2/decade" after 1975 (I'm sure they say somewhere to more decimal points but this is all I can get from the main page). Satellite measurements of lower atmosphere temperatures shows rises of between 0.16°C to 0.24°C/decade since 1982. Weather balloon measurements have found from 1958 through 2005, the global mean, near-surface air temperature warmed by approximately 0.17°C/decade.

But then, pictures tell a thousand words (hence the power of photos of dodgy weather stations). So I'm also convinced by comparing regional temperature rise with areas of urbanisation (eg - the bits with all the twinkly lights). There's no correlation between where temperature rise is greatest and areas of urbanisation (eg - USA, Europe, the east coast of South America, east Asia). If UHI effect was driving global warming records, the urbanised areas would display greater temperature rises.

Thanks for the nice comment,

Thanks for the nice comment, John.

Now let's look at the studies you cited. First the NCDC study (now that I'm done laughing) only covers two years. The idea behind urban heat island is that as the city grows, so does the amount of heat. Two years? LOLOL That's just too funny.

Then in the parker study, they say there cant be an UHI because the temperatures were the same on windy days as calm days. Okay, so then look at it like this. If the temperature station is on 4th and Elm, then on a calm night you get the temperature from 4th and Elm. But on a windy night, you get the heat that is blown to the temperature station from 5th and Elm. Then consider a different time frame, instead of two years, let's look at thirty years. The buildings got bigger (more concrete more heat held), there are more car engines blowing hot exhaust and the outskirts of the city got wider.

Now let's look at your logic using the Satellites and balloons. Now you are comparing temperature from an entirely different area. The surface measure temps at the surface. The balloons and Satellites measure temps in the lower troposphere from 1 to 5 miles up and are more affected by ENSO as stated on Roy SPencer's MSU home page. You are also using a time frame that is from 1982 and 1958, since ENSO has been in a positive phase. Now move into the upper troposphere, the effect is the opposite and it is also contrary to greenhouse theory predictions. That alone should tell you that any rise in temperature in the lower troposphere is caused by water vapor (the most abundant greenhouse gas) because that is where water vapor is, unlike CO2 which is a well mixed greenhouse gas and is in simillar concentration in both the upper and lower troposphere. 

In the GISS temperature you do the same thing. You limit yourself to a time period starting in 1975. Go back to 1940 and you get an entirely different amount of heating per decade.

Then in your last paragraph you compare urban vs non urban temperatures. That's the point John, the rural stations that are being photographed are showing that instead of measuring temperatures in areas of trees and grass, they are still measuring areas of concrete, air conditioner exhausts and metal towers, not to mention the occasional trash incinerator and bbq. Of course there will be no  difference in temperature rise between the urban and rural areas. That's the whole point.

Don't worry John, after the temperature record is fixed, there still might be some global warming to complain about. But instead of .77 in the last 100 years, will it be .55? or .33?

Anecdotal UHI

Kristen, I think you misunderstand the point of the NCDC study. It's saying that at any point in time, there was no difference in the temperatures in urban stations versus rural stations. The two years is to broaden the dataset.

Nevertheless, my one concern about that study is that it only covered 289 stations. It's more rigorous than photos of a few dozen weather stations but I'd love to see a broader analysis. So I did some more digging (that's the problem with your posts - I'm always left with lots of homework! :-) and found a broader study by GISS and NOAA that examines the last century of temperature data across the USA and found any possible urban warming was small and fell within uncertainty ranges. When attempting to correct urban levels to match surrounding rural levels, they found 42% of cities were getting cooler relative to their surroundings due to urban areas being heterogeneous, and weather stations are often sited in cool islands (the same conclusion as the Peterson study). The point is they're aware of UHI and look for it when analysing temperature records.

I have read references to other studies such as an analysis of Siberian records where temperature rises are one of the highest globally and have a good mix of rural and urban - I haven't chased down the original study though. But to be honest, I think UHI is a bit of a non-event. There are a lot more contentious issues in AGW - evidence of UHI effect is anecdotal.

BTW, I made the point of refering to satellite and balloon measurements of lower atmosphere records. I also referred to the last 3 decades because the first few decades of the 20th century were primarily warmed by solar variations, then the midcentury cooling was due to solar levels flattening and rising sulfate levels. But from the 80's, the warming trend kicked in again quite independent of solar variations. So that's the period that is pertinent to global warming discussions.

Good chatting, your posts are always excellent value!

John, It’s been a long day.

John,

It’s been a long day. I spent a long day studying in the car while my parents drove me to photograph sites.

You write “Kristen, I think you misunderstand the point of the NCDC study. It's saying that at any point in time, there was no difference in the temperatures in urban stations versus rural stations. The two years is to broaden the dataset.”

In that case it brings us back to the very point of the article; that urban stations and rural stations suffer the same problems. I would also like to know just what the adjustments were before they made the analysis because NOAA did the same sort of thing and their temps came down to +.54 temp rise in the 20th century. They will release their numbers in July.

You then write: “Nevertheless, my one concern about that study is that it only covered 289 stations. It's more rigorous than photos of a few dozen weather stations but I'd love to see a broader analysis. So I did some more digging (that's the problem with your posts - I'm always left with lots of homework! :-) and found a broader study by GISS and NOAA that examines the last century of temperature data across the USA and found any possible urban warming was small and fell within uncertainty ranges. When attempting to correct urban levels to match surrounding rural levels, they found 42% of cities were getting cooler relative to their surroundings due to urban areas being heterogeneous, and weather stations are often sited in cool islands (the same conclusion as the Peterson study). The point is they're aware of UHI and look for it when analysing temperature records.”

You actually present me with a Hansen study?  That’s the best you could find? ROFL This is silly. Nevertheless, the unlit stations in this study are the ones that are being photographed in case you didn’t look at ClimateAudit. There are also the very unreliable adjustments that they made to the data to come to their conclusions.  Also, while lit and unlit areas might be okay in the developed world, unlit does not work in the undeveloped world. Is it possible that this is the reason that the US shows no warming since 1940 in his graph on page 22 yet globally it shows the amount of warming that it does?

Also “BTW, I made the point of refering to satellite and balloon measurements of lower atmosphere records. I also referred to the last 3 decades because the first few decades of the 20th century were primarily warmed by solar variations, then the midcentury cooling was due to solar levels flattening and rising sulfate levels. But from the 80's, the warming trend kicked in again quite independent of solar variations. So that's the period that is pertinent to global warming discussions.’

With respect to the midcentury cooling, it was not sulphates and solar, it was ENSO and solar. The sulphates thing is a figment of AGW imagination and is the only way the models will not have a problem with run away warming. There is no observation that supports the sulphate theory. In fact if you find Douglas Hoyt’s Alps study, you will find observations to the contrary. On the other hand, the ENSO observations support the temperature record. As for the last 30 years, try thermal inertia of the oceans and ENSO. Solar was very high in the last three cycles but the oceans had not warmed to its maximum until the end of the last cycle and ENSO was positive. In the 5 years since the Hansen study, ENSO and solar have leveled out, and so have temps.

I forgot who pointed this out

I forgot who pointed this out. Even ideal stations often change with time. Heat lost at night through radiation is dependent on the amount of exposure to the night sky. If there are trees around the station, with time the trees grow. And the exposure to the night sky decreases. (You see more sky in a forest of sapplings than in an old forest.) This decreases the amount of heat that can escape.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

1998 No Longer Warmest Year on record, NASA states

In support of Kristen Byrnes article, I would proudly like to forward this great article, indicating 1998 was not the warmest year on record in the US:     (scroll down to Aug.9th)

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/

Also, in addition to that, I would like to forward a great site proving that over 75 percent of all glaciers are growing in recent years, along with other cold/snow news often widely ignored by the mainstream: 

http://iceagenow.com

Believe me, Global Warming is a Hoax !   No, it's likely the greatest fraud ever in American History......

 

 

.

.

Dangerous Global Cooling underway

Very interesting article based on solar cycles.  A significant global cooling can be expected, especially after 2020:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/comment/story.html?id=597d0677-2a05-47b4-b34f-b84068db11f4&p=4