Political Economist Robert Higgs on Peer Reviews and Scientific Consensus

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

How many times in the past year as global warming has become a headline issue have you heard a liberal media member or Hollywood elite talk about a consensus of peer reviewed scientists?

So much so that you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting one, correct?

As an example, pop singer Sheryl Crow during her recent Stop Global Warming College tour would toss the term "peer-reviewed science" around to her audience like a frisbee, as if she had any idea what it actually meant.

With that in mind, a Senior Fellow in Political Economy for the Independent Institute, Dr. Robert Higgs, published an article Monday that should be required reading for folks like soon-to-be-Dr. Al Gore and his followers (emphasis added throughout):

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I have served as a peer reviewer for more than thirty professional journals and as a reviewer of research proposals for the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and a number of large private foundations. I was the principal investigator of a major NSF-funded research project in the field of demography. So, I think I know something about how the system works.

It does not work as outsiders seem to think.

Tell us more, Doctor:

Peer review, on which lay people place great weight, varies from important, where the editors and the referees are competent and responsible, to a complete farce, where they are not. As a rule, not surprisingly, the process operates somewhere in the middle, being more than a joke but less than the nearly flawless system of Olympian scrutiny that outsiders imagine it to be. Any journal editor who desires, for whatever reason, to knock down a submission can easily do so by choosing referees he knows full well will knock it down; likewise, he can easily obtain favorable referee reports. As I have always counseled young people whose work was rejected, seemingly on improper or insufficient grounds, the system is a crap shoot. Personal vendettas, ideological conflicts, professional jealousies, methodological disagreements, sheer self-promotion and a great deal of plain incompetence and irresponsibility are no strangers to the scientific world; indeed, that world is rife with these all-too-human attributes. In no event can peer review ensure that research is correct in its procedures or its conclusions.

As for the other buzzword folks like Gore, Crow, and Laurie David like to throw around:

At any given time, consensus may exist about all sorts of matters in a particular science. In retrospect, however, that consensus is often seen to have been mistaken. As recently as the mid-1970s, for example, a scientific consensus existed among climatologists and scientists in related fields that the earth was about to enter a new ice age. Drastic proposals were made, such as exploding hydrogen bombs over the polar icecaps (to melt them) or damming the Bering Strait (to prevent cold Arctic water from entering the Pacific Ocean), to avert this impending disaster. Well-reputed scientists, not just uninformed wackos, made such proposals. How quickly we forget.

Researchers who employ unorthodox methods or theoretical frameworks have great difficulty under modern conditions in getting their findings published in the "best" journals or, at times, in any scientific journal. Scientific innovators or creative eccentrics always strike the great mass of practitioners as nut cases―until it becomes impossible to deny their findings, a time that often comes only after one generation's professional ring-masters have died off. Science is an odd undertaking: everybody strives to make the next breakthrough, yet when someone does, he is often greeted as if he were carrying the ebola virus. Too many people have too much invested in the reigning ideas; for those people an acknowledgment of their own idea's bankruptcy is tantamount to an admission that they have wasted their lives.

This makes it pretty obvious why those on one side of a scientific issue have to work to prevent opposing opinions from getting much attention. But that’s not all:

If your work, for whatever reason, does not appeal to the relevant funding agency's bureaucrats and academic review committees, you can forget about getting any money to carry out your proposal. Recall the human frailties I mentioned previously; they apply just as much in the funding context as in the publication context. Indeed, these two contexts are themselves tightly linked: if you don't get funding, you'll never produce publishable work, and if you don't land good publications, you won't continue to receive funding.

When your research implies a "need" for drastic government action to avert a looming disaster or to allay some dire existing problem, government bureaucrats and legislators (can you say "earmarks"?) are more likely to approve it. If the managers at the NSF, NIH, and other government funding agencies gave great amounts of money to scientists whose research implies that no disaster looms or no dire problem now exists or even that although a problem exists, no currently feasible government policy can do anything to solve it without creating even greater problems in the process, members of Congress would be much less inclined to throw money at the agency, with all the consequences that an appropriations cutback implies for bureaucratic thriving.

Interesting side to this debate that the media is loathe to share with the public, wouldn’t you agree?

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.


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I have spent some time in a

I have spent some time in academia, and I can testify that Dr. Higgs' article is not only interesting but the absolute truth. I presume he either has tenure or doesn't need it.

Having worked in an applied s

Having worked in an applied scientific area, on a state level. I have to agree.  There's a lot of BS passing as science.

PS I'm retired now. I don't have to bite my tongue any more. LOL

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

artwhite, are you out there?

artwhite, are you out there?   This backs up everything I said about peer review and consensus, while refuting his adamant denials in our recent argument about Global Warming.   It's been one of the left's most strongly defended positions that the pro-AGW scientists are pure and detatched.  Of course, that has always been rubbish.

RJ, all we're going to hear

RJ, all we're going to hear are crickets on this thread.

To me "peer reviewed" has always meant you showed your buddies and they said, "oh, yeah. That looks good, just fix the spelling and grammatical errors and we'll sign off on it."

I don't understand how people could think otherwise.

"Believe what you want. You work your side of the street, and I'll work mine." --Frank Bullitt

Right here RJ! It's an intere

Right here RJ! It's an interesting piece and I'm sure there's lots of truth in it, scientists are humans and it seems all human endeavors suffer from corruption but I think Higgs overstates his case. Whatever the failures of the peer reviewed process there continue to be giant strides in scientific knowledge and application and there are continual adjustments and occasional revoultions -for eg in physics, chaos theory and string theory -within disciplines. I wonder, if you feel the scientific community is corrupt, how do you make decisions about what is good science and what junk?
As you know I am not a 'believer' in AGW, in fact I'm highly skeptical but I'm just as skeptical of the agenda of those who forcibly claim it's simply a scam.
Also I'm not too impressed with Higgs as a rational witness. See this article where he viciouly attacks the president and the Iraq war.
http://www.lewrockwe...

If he is against the POTUS an

If he is against the POTUS and the Iraq war (siding with liberals), but at the same time questions the methods of peer review which undermines the AGW consensus doesn't that lend credibility to his statements?  After all, we would expect a conservative to support both the POTUS and Iraq war and be against AGW.

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

That's right.

That's right.

You don't state it, but your

You don't state it, artwhite, but your post represents a change from your liberal-like insistence that AGW scientists are nearly intellectually pure.  Congratulations on your progress.  

Next, perhaps you can enlighten us about your underlying reasons (agenda?) for such a determined attack on those who recognize that AGW is probably a scam being foisted on the world.  

 

RJ, you're so sweet! Patronis

RJ, you're so sweet! Patronising and suspicious, what a lovely character, can't wait to meeet you!
You may twist my words as much as you like but I never stated that nearly all climate scientists who claim evidence of AGW scientists are intellectually pure, I merely asked if it was plausible that the vast majority of them were corrupt. You still haven't answered this question.
Out of interest, if you would deign to actually answer a question of mine, is there any 'scientific consensus' you do trust?
You answer your last question yourself. The reason for my ' determined attack' is that there is so much certainty espoused on these pages when at best it is 'probably' a scam. When I do my own research I find the skeptics just as unreliable as the promoters. What do you expect of me that I throw my own rationality out on this matter because it's the majority conservative position. Sorry RJ I'm not a knee-jerk.

artwhite- it doesn't requir

artwhite- it doesn't require corruption to have bias. Are the farmers and the population in Iowa corrupt because they believe Ethanol is a good thing? No it is in their interest to think that it is a good thing so if anyone says that it is good that is what they latch on to. We don't think of the scientists as evil like liberals think of dissenters as evil.

Good point Dee Bunk.

Good point Dee Bunk.

Thanks, Dee, for brushing asi

Thanks, Dee, for brushing aside art's attempt to obfuscate by pretending that anyone here has called scientist's bias "corruption."

"Patronizing?"  My, my artwhite, can't you recognize sarcasm when you read it?

Gee, artie, are you STILL trying to use the disingenuous claim that I twist your words?  Every time you've tried, I've proven you wrong, and here we go again.  Yes, on several occasions you've taken positions that give the idea that you believe scientists are nearly intellectually pure.  Here's one example:  "scientists live in a world of 'to the best of my knowledge with the current data available we posit'...and are one of the groups of people most ready to admit mistakes and change their minds."   Your words...refuted by the article above, statements on this thread/site by scientists (and those with scientific connections), and even by your own admission earlier on this thread.

 Do I believe in the concept of scientific "consensus?"  No.  Do you?It's pretty clear that you have your own bias for AGW.   How's that, you say?   Well, because you ignore the vast number of links and solid evaluations on this site (many by scientists) about how many pro-AGW scientists use flawed science to "prove" their point. You ignore the examples of the politics being played by many of the same scientists.    Instead, you harp on YOUR idea that (paraphrasing) "posters here have no backup to show AGW is probably a scam."   That indicates your underlying inclinations.  You were taken down, point by point, on the other thread and still you push your attack.  That indicates some kind of an agenda, artie. 

Dear, stubborn RJ, I apprecia

Dear, stubborn RJ, I appreciate your efforts in quoting me but you haven't actually proven what you claim. Nevermind I'm sure in your own mind you scored a conclusive victory. Whatever the confused Bush hater Higgs may say the scientific community is a lot more flexible than most, certainly than you and your knee jerk party lineism.
I guess you dispute the 'consensus' on Newtonian gravity (ps to save you from embarrasing yourself the theory of relativity didn't dismantle Newton's laws) and on nuclear technology and on quantum mechanics and on evolution (actually as a knee jerk kind of guy I'm sure you reject that one) and on thermodynamics...
FYI I've followed numerous links from this site re:AGW and solid evaluations are at a minimum and the few scientists who post here seem encumbered by the very bais you are so critical of, it's just that it's a bias you aprove of so you don't care. Sorry RJ I'm not that convenient.

FYI I've followed numerous li

FYI I've followed numerous links from this site re:AGW and solid evaluations are at a minimum

your lack of evaluational ability is the reason for the minimum.  I've followed numerous lines of thought posited by you and find a decided lack of reasoning ability.

Supreme Court,  National Security,  Borders,  Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.   

Try some of the links here at

Try some of the links here at the forums BTW there are enough scientists represented in these links to debunk the concensus crap

http://newsbusters.org/node/12009

Supreme Court,  National Security,  Borders,  Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.   

botg, my powers of reasoning

botg, my powers of reasoning are very honed, professional in fact, and just because I don't agree with you wholeheartedly on this point does not make me illogical or irrational, in fact I think you should look in the mirror to find someone irrational. The list of links you've provided are all from newspapers and opinion pages and we all know how much we should trust newpapers and opinion spouters!
Where are the links to hard science? I'd be happy to learn that AGW is a scam but right now the anti AGW crowd is coming off as the scammers to me, reminiscent of Behe and Dembski and the Intelligent Design mob.
I can't stand knee jerk, unthinking conformity and this is unfortunately what I'm seeing displayed at NB on this subject.

I can tell that you don't b

I can tell that you don't believe in God merely from your attitude of "show me proof, and then I'll believe." I know this because a belief in God is dependent on faith or a lack of definitive proof, it takes investigation, reasoning, and making choices to arrive at a belief in God. Proof doesn't have to be apparent in manifesting truth. This "show me first" attitude also shows that your powers of reasoning may not be as honed as you think they are. If you read the AGW material it is based upon fear and emotion, and it always finds a way to place the blame on mankind's shoulders with no other possible explanations...it must be man's fault...it has to be. If you read the anti-AGW information it is based on investigating natural phenomena, solar activity, historical records, cause-effect relationships, and using critical thinking to find the true causes of climate change instead of automatically assuming the blame rests on mankind.

Learn to think for yourself. You don't need to have a scientist show you proof for something to be true. It's true with or without the scientist. Just because someone writes an opinion column doesn't mean they are automatically wrong or they don't have some good points. The whole idea behind opinion columns is to get people to think.

But then, a person possessing professional powers of reasoning would already know all of this.

"Believe what you want. You work your side of the street, and I'll work mine." --Frank Bullitt

Mean Gene, I find it very com

Mean Gene, I find it very comforting that you can adduce the truth of matters from recourse to faith. But I credit you with spotting me as an atheist. Well done. However just to enlighten you a little, almost no-one comes to God through investigation, reasoning and choice, even born agains who think that's what they're doing. Almost exclusively believers were inculcated as children into a belief, and fear, of their cultural dety. Many may have moved away from this belief as they grew older but it is still deep in their psyche and various triggers set it off so that they fall back into the fold. Note that believers may well switch denominations or even faiths (African-American Muslims eg) but this doesn't mean their behavior is rational.

I have read the AGW stuff from both sides, and you misrepresent the AGW proponents as I think you are only refering to the MSM. If you read the proponent scientitsts themselves you will find a notable absence of fear and emotion and plenty of the qualities you only associate with the skeptics. The polticial game may be played out in the MSM and I am wholly symapthetic to your complaints there but the real scientific debate is not so simple.

I assume you'd rather an engineer check the plane you're flying than yourself or your priest or rabbi or imam...and I'm sure you'd rather have a doctor wtih the latest tools and information treat you than a faith-healer..at least for your sake I hope so.

Sarcasm isn't your strong point Gene. But I forgive you it's probably your bountiful religious spirit that prevents you from attacking your fellow man, better leave that to the real meanies like me!

"I merely asked if it

"I merely asked if it was plausible that the vast majority of them were corrupt."

If I may,

Probably not corrupt, just accepting the "party line" so to speak. Just like they do with evolution. Would you agree that every scientist or professor who "believes" in evolution hasn't necessarily done actual evolution research? In the same manner I doubt very few of them have done original AGW research. They may be accepting the work of others at face value. The guys I respect are the ones that challenge the party line and do their own research. The "skeptics" as they are known. Make sense?

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

As with Dee Bunk above good p

As with Dee Bunk above good point re: party line. I don't think any individual can study and research every aspect of even one discipline and as with everything else there must be a degree of accepting other's work/word in order to get anything done, so i'm not sure what your pointis here. If you're implyng that evoulion is a scam then I'd have to disagree but I'm not sure from your post so please no offence if you're not implying this.
One other caveat, just because someone is a maverick and challenges the party line does not make them right or more respectable, it can simply be misplaced ego or a desire to stand out.
And you obviously don't always hold to this principle otherwise you'd be suppoting me in this debate! :-)

Ok, here's another example:

Ok, here's another example: I say "DDT", immediately you think; "bad", thank God we stopped that! But there have been millions of deaths world wide because of the banning of DDT. If DDT had not been overused and subsuquently banned, millions would have been saved. But how many deaths have been documented that were directly caused by the use of DDT? In the same way many people have a preconceived notion about AGW. The way I see it, AGW is the cause du juor for liberals, and therefore an excellent reason to raise taxes.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Hmm I wonder if you have the

Hmm I wonder if you have the same concern for the millions of Africans that die of AIDs every year due to lack of an effective sexaul education programs, including access to condoms, since Christians feel that abstinence is the righteous way.

Right?

No, especially when many if n

No, especially when many if not most of the diagnoses are falsely attributed to AIDS in order to get international funding, thanks for playing and making our point about distorting the issue for a hidden agenda.

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

Leon,Therein lies my fundamen

Leon,

Therein lies my fundamental argument against the GW advocates:  When hundreds of thousands of people are still dieing from malaria and even diarrhea in impoverished countries, why are we trying to move these easily treatable diseases down the priority list in favor of an abstract "save the world" cause du jour?

Obviously you would prefer to use an underhanded jab towards Christians as a smokescreen, so I doubt you're truly looking for answers to the AIDS issue.  The simple concept of clean drinking water could set off a huge domino effect towards addressing this problem.  But that is too simplistic in the minds of the elites.  It's hard to conjure up a big global marketing campaign and promote your intellectual superiority around a commodity we waste daily.  That is soooo 1995!

????You know I could take y

????

Leon,

You know I could take you a little more seriously if you didn't reply to a valid point with nonsense.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

is there any 'scientific cons

is there any 'scientific consensus' you do trust?

Actually, having watched the AGW theory roll out, no.  From now on, I will be sceptical of any claim of "scientific consensus".

Thanks for the link Art

"Also I'm not too impressed with Higgs as a rational witness. See this article where he viciouly attacks the president and the Iraq war."

Interesting.  Thanks for the link Art.

What a HUGE revelation!!!!

Do you mean to say that Scientists are human??!!!!!

No Way!!!!

They're, uh, Scientists! They have no feelings, they are not democrats or republicans, they are neither liberal nor conservative, they don't care what they're boss or co-workers think. They gather data and crunch numbers. They draw conclusions from those numbers and data. They won't stop. They will continue to analyze until they get the "right" answer.

We now return you to the real world, we hope you've enjoyed your brief glimps into "liberal bizarro world".

I was watching a show on disc

I was watching a show on discovery channel called parrallel universes. Essentially it was the hashing of scientific (mathematical) theories about the creation of the universe and the big bang. String theory was the ascendent theory. One of the other theories was called super gravity. String theory was the darling of consensus but was becoming scientifically unravelled for whatever reason. This is a telling quote from the show from a major proponent of "super gravity":

NARRATOR: Michael Duff had been the rising star of an earlier idea called super gravity. String Theory had displaced it and almost destroyed Duff's career.

MICHAEL DUFF: Physics tend to be dictated by fad and fashion. There are the gurus who dictate the direction in which new ideas grow. It was a very lonely time in many ways. When I tried to get graduate students interested many of them would say well look, you may be right and you may be wrong, but if I work in super gravity I'm not going to find a job.

There have been many, many instances of dictatorial scientific theory. Recently the Clovis first crowd which adamantly denied valid archaeological evidence of pre Clovis culture in North America and the travesty of Gov't meddling in the scientific inquiry concerning Kenniwick man come to mind. 

Great examples.

Great examples.

I'm no expert in the area, bu

I'm no expert in the area, but my understanding is that string theory is losing its luster because there simply isn't any good way to test it. In science, a theory can only gain acceptance if it can be tested -no matter how good it may sound. That doesn't mean it isn't right, just that there's no way to know... yet.

"It is not from the bene

"It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest." - Adam Smith

Leave it to an economist to point out the obvious - individuals act to make themselves as well off as possible (maximize one's utility).  Imagine that!  Here I was thinking these objective, straight-laced scientists only have the greater good of the world as their primary objectives.  Imagine my surprise when I realized these grant-seeking, government pandering environmental crusaders are actually human after all?  Oh, the humanity!

They see where the money river is and they have pitched their tents right next to it.  Good luck to them but I'm staying in my raft and getting out down stream.

How many of us worked in fiel

How many of us worked in fields where money started to flow. And people came out of the woodwork to get a piece of the pie. They'll say what ever sells if it gets them $$$$.

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

Unfortunately not all individ

Unfortunately not all individuals act to make themselves as well off as possible in fact very few do so this isn't a solid argument for anything. I feel we're being overly critical of scientists. They are not all leftists and craven wage scrapers, in fact I think the discipline and rigorous intelligence required to pass an advanced science degree would imply that there are many conservatives in their ranks! As someone who is obsessed by factual evidence I'm finding it well nigh impossible to extract the truth of the matter and I'm interested to know where the other contributors here are getting there scientific certainty from.

Well artwhite

When I go to the offical us government site on climate change, the 5 billion a year entity, the scientists there aren't even saying what Al Gore and the msm claim they are saying.

 So, as far as being too hard on the scientists, there is a degree to which I agree with you. The problem comes when all the political scientists take the data and make sure their do-gooders social order comes to fruition with it.

I'm confused Sport, a quick s

I'm confused Sport, a quick search seems to suggest that U.S. Climate Change Science Program recieves funding of 2 billion and when I looked at the site you linked to it certainly sems to endorse AGW just with science speak qualifiers. Can you direct me to more accurate data. Thanks, I'd appreciate it.

You want more accurate information Art ?

You want more accurate information Art, and you're confused ? The 5 billion bucks spent every year on that by the US Gov probably outdoes the entire world total. I'm not surprised, you being confused, "get the impression" you say you do. Yes, it sure "seems" - except it doesn't SAY.

 I'd like to know how you expect to get accurate information on the future. Hey, there isn't any Art. Right ? Won't that work for you ? I bet it does. Sure hope you're around long enough to acquire it.

 There are hundreds of threads here that discuss the topic, with hundreds of more links. Check what's left of the archive. You're on the internet, so I don't think you need help. I think you're plenty full of it.

 

A mite defensive Sport and ra

A mite defensive Sport and rather garbled too.
Thanks for the suggestion to trawl through the archives, but I've been here many times before and am still waiting for some links to sites that are convincing to me, not just Milloy and his like. I hoped you might have something concrete to offer but I guess from your sloppiness previously that was probably expecting too much.
For my clarification if you can't get accurate information about the future how can you be so sure that you have it right?

Art

I can be sure I have it right because I have witnessed consistent lying from ONE SIDE of the debate over many, many years.

 There is only one reason one side keeps lying to me, while the other side points out exactly their lies. I am in no mood to go hunting for you now, sorry. Maybe someone else would like to help you.

Here the site is somewhat honest about the costs, not sure where you got 2 billion but I'm sure it's there, but this is 3.4 billion or in that range, and the actual cost is 5 billion. Sorry I don't have a link for that 5B information, and if you already found 2 billion, and here's the link to 3.4 billion, then the data is once again the problem.

 I guess the answer for you from me is I don't like liars when I catch them. I'll try to give you a quick example. A year ago or so there was a big hullaballoo in the press over a new study on Greenland by two global warming scientist geeks who found "the entire place was melting away"... the press went on and on about it, how Greenland ice would disappear soon.

 I found some articles by searching with google after seeing something here, and searched their names, and got to their study, and their statements,the main one being hidden in the babbling " We believe our study can be extrapolated to the entire Greenland icemass ."

 I checked with the online mapping software and the sat. pics exactly the (I found out tiny) spot they studied, and found it to be the WARMEST spot on an ISLAND off the southwest lower side of Greenland, where WARM ocean currents rush past and melt the ice at the time of the year they were "studying it".

 After the hour or two it took for me to get all that I posted it here.

 Now, the reporters I am more than certain did FAR LESS research than I did, since they had all sorts of wild lies based on their own ideas in their articles. "TOTAL ICE MELTDOWN OF GREENLAND UNDERWAY" was the general idea of the headline and articles.

 I concluded, since the two geeks themselves HAD to slip the idea that they defended their study in the sense that "they believe" it could be extrapolated to the entire icemass covering Greenland, but gave no backup other than their OPINION in that case, and their opinion obviously contradicts even remotely juvenile common sense, I didn't buy the massive BS at all. All the "cover wording" in their other statements led me to believe they were lying their a$$e$ off, as well, to get as much attention as possible, and surely the press helped them along with selective quoting wether or not they liked it.  They tried to make it sound like they studied the entire gigantic mass of Greenland ice, and that the entire thing was melting, and the reporters made sure they made it sound ever more so. But when I actually checked their study and the tiny warmest SW island off the coast and in the ocean water stream on the south side of it that they actually studied, the whole gigantic house of false cards collapsed before me.

 I read all the dang little internet comments and libby true believers under all the articles with allowed blogging and when I could,  put in my "NEWS" there, as well, pointing out the gigantic BS.

 So, after years and years of that Art, I have already made a decision on the issue.

 That's the real reason why you are having apparently, such a hardtime identifying "the real data", because the real data is very thin, and very speculative, and most often very politcally slanted with OPINION added to the tiny bit of collection of uncertain data that carries more error and blind holes than is allowable to even form an accurate picture of a single second in time of "world tempterature".

 Somehow, checking the southern side of a tiny island one ten or twenty - thousandth the size of Greenland, off the coast and on the spring ocean current southern side, then claiming the observed melting in the hot spot during a warm year is proof positive the entire Greenland icemass is about to collapse just doesn't cut it for me.

 I have found time and time again, without exception, the scenario above, in various forms and flavors. Just try to get these people to talk about the changes the ~12 year sunspot cycle makes in weather anymore. It's like putting a stake through their vampire heart to even mention that. 

 I guess you'll just have to keep plugging away, it is frustrating and I understand what you are saying as far as wanting a definitive answer, but it just isn't out there. What is there is a maniac overhyping and desire for total control over nations economic energy engines, with the threat that if it isn't given over, we're all going to die very soon. Al Gore has publicly said so, time and again. I've watched his minions say so live on c-span. Elemental Extinction Event - is what they call it. "Just like the dinosaurs died out" -- then you find out, they're "political scientists" - as IS the person heading up that site linked, and testified with deception in front of the congressional committee demolibs for 4 hours pretending to be a real science - scientist, instead of a left wing political hack, which he was, and Christopher Shays (R) NAILED him on the lie.

 There are countless examples I've come across. Well, if it was so real and true, then their side could tell the truth without a problem, but of course, they cannot, since then their crisis and catastrophe predictions as well as their proclaimed required Kyoto solution (which by their own data is no solution at all) would be put to the lie that it is. 

Another one I went through here on this site was the "collapse of the southpole icecap" - where the news was bleating like dripping icecream cones on a hot beach. I went and CHECKED the amount of ice claimed melted ( which sounded like a gigantic amount and proved the  destruction of our world ) with the "total ice" down there in square miles. Well, the gigantic disappearing icemass turned out to be something like one forty thousandth or one three hundred thousandth of the total. It was absolutely laughable when I just did a simple AREA calculation.

 HUNDREDS of examples as above I have come across. When someone is continuously lying to me, in massive fashion, with slick and cover wording, and I take the time to dig and find it out, I tend to become convinced there is a reason they are lying in such a massive way. A tiny bit here or there, off a bit remembering or close enough is OK - no problem - but this stuff amounts to wholesale massive deception.

Thanks for the detailed reply

Thanks for the detailed reply Sport.
I found a couple of articles which also talk about Greenland

http://www.jpl.nasa....

http://cires.colorad...

As you're obviously someone with scientific training can you help me understand how to read through the lines of these reports. Thanks in advance for your assistance in my erudition.

Thanks for the detailed reply

Thanks for the detailed reply Sport.
I found a couple of articles which also talk about Greenland

http://www.jpl.nasa....

http://cires.colorad...

As you're obviously someone with scientific training can you help me understand how to read through the lines of these reports. Thanks in advance for your assistance in my erudition.

Gee artie, you wouldn't be misrepresentin' again, would ya?

That's a conveniently selective memory you have there, artie.    There have been literally hundreds and hundreds of links to powerful refutations of the positions put out by the AGW people.   But you can't be bothered, and all you can remember is "Milloy and his like."  Well, instead of bitchin', how about identifying some of the links you're talking about, say from these "his like" people, and doin' some serious refuting?  

Your bringing up Milloy is interesting in itself, because I don't recall Milloy being used for anything but relaying a quote made by Al Gore.   Gee, you wouldn't be misrepresentin' again, would ya, artie?   To advance your agenda?

Sweet RJ, I haven't the time

Sweet RJ, I haven't the time to go back and find all the links, suffice it to say that most have been from political pundits and very few from actual scientists. I used Milloy as an example from a recalled recent conversation, are you denying that he is an AGW skeptic?
However I will post a few links for you to counter, as, despite all your accusations, I want to learn-
http://scripps.ucsd....
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa....
http://www.epa.gov/c...
AND MOST PERTINENTLY TO THIS PAGE ANOTHER TAKE ON PEER REVIEW
http://scienceblogs....

PS Come down my precinct and call me Artie to my face. If you're not prepared to do that, learn some manners and call me by my name.

It helps to look at what scie

It helps to look at what scientists who don't receive funding that correspond to their assertions are saying.

Trouble is most of the anti-A

Trouble is most of the anti-AGW'ers seem to receive their funding from the oil industry....

I'm kinda anti-AGW, and to

I'm kinda anti-AGW, and to the contrary, I fund the oil industry everytime I fill up!

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Ha-ha! Good one MM.

Ha-ha! Good one MM.

Prove it.  You can start wit

Prove it.  You can start with this list.

http://www.sitewave.net/pproject/listbystate.htm

"Unfortunately not all i

"Unfortunately not all individuals act to make themselves as well off as possible in fact very few do so this isn't a solid argument for anything."

I would agree with the first part of your statement simply because 100% is a very hard number to attain.  There are a few Mother Teresa's out there that find greater utility in dedicating their lives to others through unprecedented selflessness.  However, you leisurely stating that it's a fact that very few act to maximize their own self interests flies in the face of a rather large consensus (see irony).

Art, take a look around at this great capitalist machine we live in and tell me how the majority of the people are not out to make themselves as well off as possible.  The mere fact that our benevolent government doles out billions of dollars a year makes this fundamental argument VERY solid.  Do you really believe that these GW scientists would forfeit these large grants in favor of a pro-bono system just based on principle?

I wasn't referring to Mother

I wasn't referring to Mother Teresa types at all. If you think about it most people do little to maximize their earnings, from the most obvious category - home-makers, to underpaid vocations such as police officers or those serving in the armed forces or firemen or nurses to the mass of jobsworths in offices, the retail sector and the service industry around the nation who have no interest in doing their best and earning promotion on merit, to artistsic types to the bums on welfare and those hanging around on the corner....this great capitalist machine works so well because it rewards the most motivated and committed and because there are so many less driven members of society who will do enough work for a living wage rather than attempt to be entrepeneurs or leaders of industry themselves.
I don't know how a pro-bono system would work in science since not all science is applied, at least in a set time period.

I had higher hopes for you Ar

I had higher hopes for you Art, but apparently something was lost in translation.  I said "utility"; you said "earnings."  Apples and oranges.  I don't have the time to detail the difference.  I'm not trying to be cute, but I suggest getting a hold of Milton Friedman's "Free to Choose" or Charles Wheelan's "Naked Economics" for a quick primer on why you are arguing something that is irrelevant to my point.  So when I say that individuals act to make themselves as well off as possible, that is truly one of the fundamental principles of economics. 

Let me pose the question from a statistical point of view.  If only one variable is key to a decision, and the variable has a 90% chance of going your way, the chance for a successful outcome is obviously 90%. But if ten independent variables need to break favorably for a successful result, and each has a 90% probability of success, the likelihood of having a winner is only 35%. 

So if the man-made component of this argument, in this case CO2, is one of a possible hundred variables (water vapor, solar flares, flatulence, etc.) that make-up the equation of global warming, do you see where I’m going with this?  Are we willing to bet billions upon billions of taxpayer revenues that these models will ensure that mankind is the variable that is statistically significant well beyond the margin of error?  After filtering through all the hyperbole and watching the preliminary assumptions continually revised downward, I’m not sure I would make that bet.

The reason we care about the Amazon Rain Forest, Bengal Tiger, and the African Black Rhino is because we can afford to care.  Global warming is no different – it is a luxury good in the technical sense of the word.  As countries grow richer they place greater value on the environment.  One of my fundamental problems stems from incentives.  Do you really think the Bangladesh government will ever say, “Thank you America, but you can stop sending us millions of dollars because the tiger population is booming now.”?  The same goes for our well-educated, yet human scientists.  

I read about a scientist in London who in 1864 predicted in 1964 that London would be under 10 feet of horse manure.  He obviously couldn’t foresee the invention of the automobile.  I just get the feeling that today’s scientists are just as fallible when it comes to seeing the future.

Well as my original point was

Well as my original point was clearly about earnings your desire to restrict the debate to utility is strange. I've read both Friedman and Whelan thank you but their insights into macro-economics do not invalidate anything I stated above about the reality of human behavior. To be clear - economist's are in hock to the idea of a predictbale rational behavior which is rarely seen in the real world.

If it were the case that water vapor etc were genuine components of the argument I'd be right on board with you, the problem seems to me that the majority of the counter arguments are pretty thin and poltically motivated. I've heard President Bush talking about solar panels on all our houses, and of course he wouldn't sign Kyoto as it's unhinged, but he clearly takes potential AGW seriously otherwise there would be no federal funding at all for it's research. What do you know that he doesn't?

If the US is sending money to Bangladesh so are most European nations. Explain.

Giving examples of failed predicitions from the 19th century doesn't prove anything Mule, and you know it.

And my original point was bas

And my original point was based on utility; so which came first, the chicken or the egg?  As always, these types of conversations veer off path and we are forced to spend worthless time clarifying and detailing previous remarks.  I included Charles Wheelan as a source because he strikes me as a fairly liberal economist.  I figured the economic principle of maximizing one's utility is redundant and fairly cliché' by now.  But if we can't even get past that original statement, then I'm afraid we'll never see eye to eye.

So let me say this, I believe the variables that you dub "insignificant components" (water vapor, solar activity) are indeed significant.  The supporting links are posted ad nauseam in NB and I tend to believe there is a true debate amongst apolitical and non-funded scientists from both sides.  Unfortunately, all too often the discussion turns into a "I have more scientists on my side" and "My article is more credible than yours" quagmire.  I try and steer away from that and position my comments from a different angle.

Try not to read too much into the federal funding tea leaves.  Flip your scenario around and tell me what would happen if Bush completely cut all funding to the AGW cause.  Would there not be a blood letting from the entire MSM and moral elitists?  Bush (Karl Rove) is smart enough to know political suicide when he sees it.  At one time George Bush wanted to be known as the "Education President."  What did he do to try and acquire this title (generally speaking) - his administration allocated more money toward education spending than the previous president.  I imagine every president hereafter will do the same.

Politics is an appeasement business.  I have absolutely no problem with Bush (or any president for that matter) dedicating a fraction of a percent of our multi-trillion dollar budget toward environmental matters.  I like clean air just as much as the next guy.  But let us not draw a direct correlation from federal funding to one's political prowess.  For 40 years our government subsidized Angora Goat farmers.  Should I extrapolate the same cause and effect? 

And yes, I know quoting failed predictions proves nothing.  Did you honestly think I would use one 19th century scientist as a back-drop for my case?  Don't mistake scientific value for anecdotal value.  Or in economics, it's called tripping over a dollar to pick up a dime.

I apologize for my oversight,

I apologize for my oversight, I hadn't scrolled back far enough to see that you had used the term utility originally, so no chicken and egg problem here. However it seems to me that the desire to maximize one's utility and the reality of accomplishing this are poles apart for most people whatever the consensus (sic) economic theory may say.

I agree that the AGW debate tends to get dragged into the quagmire of scientifically challenged citizens (or politicised scientists from unrelated fileds of expertise) tossing around screeds that support their viewpoint, and this is a worthless enterprise. But the reason I've got caught up in it here is that despite my skepticism of scare stories, however much I read I find that the AGW skeptics come across as more politicised and questionable than the proponents. Since my political instincts push me to want to believe that the AGW skeptics are right this isn't easy but I can't deny my intellect and the almost complete polarization of views between conservatives and liberals makes me even more suspicious that there is pure knee-jerkism going on.

I give Bush more credit than you. If he was so concerned about popularity over substance he woud have sacked Gozales and dropped Cheney. Bush has been very strong in his enviromental policy from the Clean Air Act to Cheney's energy commission so I wouldnt be so flip as to dismiss billions of dollars spent willingly by his administration as a mere sop to the MSM. And it's clearly not pork ala the goat farmers.

As with the 'I have more scientists than you' we could trade anecdotes all day, suffice it to say that it's human nature to predict doom, look at the number of religions that think the apocalypse is coming every generation, so for the trivial and stupid MSM to overstate the case is no surprise it makes ratings, it doesn't necessarily equate that the underlying science is bad.

Hence, the consensus of any o

Hence, the consensus of any opinion in science is immediately suspect pending the totality of the facts.  You know this whole process sounds more and more like the standard liberal tactic of making an assertion without any facts or with cherry picked facts. 

“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius

I study 40 picked articles pe

I study 40 picked articles per month in medicine with the help of 2 professors who spend a great deal of time on statistical analysis.
My conclusions after 12 years is that 90+percent of all scientific publications today are agenda driven and harmful. On one side there is drug company funding causing slanted studies that can only come out for the company (as in statins such as Lipitor). On the other is politically motivated and government pushed programs such as mammograms for younger women.
After in depth examination one concludes medical studies lie. What in the world can we conclude about scientists such as Row and Gore and the "scientists" backing them?

"Let him who seeth them not, deride me for saying these things, and I will pity him, while he derides me."
Augustin, "Confessions"

Great post.  Terrific insigh

Great post.  Terrific insight into the peer review process.  And into the prominence and influence of money.  (Funny, he didn't say it was only the oil companies shelling out for research.)

Peer review and global cooling

Higgs' comments are too general to be addressed directly. However, one of the statements he makes seems to me merit some time.

He acknowledges that he doesn't know a lot about the current and past climate situation, because that's not his field of specialty. That's fine.

However, he makes the claim that there was a scientific consensus in the 1970s on the "global cooling" issue, as way of showing that "peer-review" is often wrong.

In keeping with my practice of not giving facts, I'll just raise some pertinent questions. Questions, which seem to me, honest questions. You can investigate them yourself if you find them worthwhile.

a) Did there exist a scientific consensus on "global cooling" in the 1970s?

How would you go about researching this question? Well, it seems to me you should look at the scientific literature in the 1970s to determine this. There was a World Climate Conference in the 1970s which addressed this I think. There's an ample record on this.

b) Is the same degree of "consensus" present in the IPCC report today? More? Less?

There is no consensus now nor

There is no consensus now nor then. And IPCC plays games on stressing the definitiveness of the science. This is the UN. You play the same games.

But, having been in undergraduate school in the 60's. Studying archaeology and geology. I heard my instructors discussing on numerous occasions. We may be at the end of this warm period. (The interglacial.) And I for one recall reading an article in the scientific american on a returning mini ice age. Soon. They were predicting a return of glaciers in the Presidential range. It was a common belief among those in the field in the 60's and 70's.

Was there a poll in the 60's and 70's. None that I recall. Then the only people claiming a consensus now; are playing word games. And are quite disingenious

"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.”   H.L. Mencken

What is consensus?

Well, it seems to me a question of settling the question, "what is scientific consensus"?

Does this bring into your mind an image of people voting on whether this or that theory is right or not?

You can quote your memories from the 60s and 70s of your instructors. That's fine. I won't question it. You can ask yourself if that's your idea of a scientific consensus.

I'll give you my view. Let me start with an ideal. An ideal would be for every human being on the planet know about the scientific discoveries which affect their life. Is that feasible? Maybe not, in my view. Nevertheless, people should try to learn as much as they can about any subject, if they feel it's worthwhile.

What's the honest way of going about learning about a topic? Well, in my view, if we don't know something about a topic, we must first be humble enough to say, "I don't know". Then, we can look to people who claim to know about it. Let's look at what they say. Decide for yourself if what they say has some merit.

If somebody claims that this or that theory is fundamentally flawed, we approach it with the same skeptical spirit. Apply the same standards to the skeptics, or comparable ones.

Let me phrase that another way. Suppose you wanted to know the "truth" about Relativity theory. What would you do? Do the above questions seem to you reasonable ones?

There's plenty of avenues to explore the truth. If you are really a honest skeptic, you'd be seeking out those and challenging each side of the argument.

The "fact" of a scientific consensus on "global cooling" is not hard to investigate, if you're really honest and work a little. Apply the same standard as you apply to global warming and see if there was a consensus.

On consensus

Consensus, my guilt-ridden Socialist, is a creature of parliaments and politics.

"HAV3 TH3 BRIDG3S OF INSANITY B33N CROSS3D AND FOR3V3R R3TRACT3D???."  - Meshuggah, "3ntrapm3nt", from Catch Thirty Thr33 (2005)

Nevertheless, people sho

Nevertheless, people should try to learn as much as they can about any subject, if they feel it's worthwhile.

Oh please. Most people have no idea how the internal combustion engine works. And they never will either, even though they use their vehicle everyday.

Science IS skepticism and the refutation of hypothesis. There are PLENTY of people who have refuted or cast doubt of the hypothosis that climate change is affected by the activities of mankind.

In fact, there is a perfectly reasonable hypothosis proposing that rather than nominal rises in CO2 levels causing a nominal rise in the global average temperature, the opposite is true.

That, in fact, a nominally rising global temperature is more likey to be the cause of a nominal rise in CO2 in the atmosphere.

SEDITION THE MISSION

Harold Reid (D-Feat)