On Friday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) spilled the beancounters' beans (PDF report is available at the link) in advance of this next Thursday's release of the Monthly Treasury Statement. The coverage of CBO's report has been very light.
Excuse me if I question CBO's timing.
But first, the news -- The report by Andrew Taylor of the Associated Press (HT Right Angle Blog) has all that's needed to finish this month's look at the deficit:
Impressive tax receipts bring in 'low' deficit of $150 billion
Saturday, May 05, 2007Washington- The federal budget deficit could go as low as $150 billion this year, congressional analysts said Friday.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had earlier seen a deficit for 2007 of about $200 billion, but continued strong revenue growth has led CBO to lower its estimates.
..... Impressive tax receipts during the April filing season prompted the more optimistic estimates. This year's April receipts ran $70 billion higher than last year's. CBO says receipts are likely to grow at a 9 percent pace over the first months of the budget year.
Through the first seven months of the budget year, which ends Sept. 30, the government posted an $83 billion deficit, about $100 million less than during a comparable period last fiscal year.
The $70 billion revenue increase and the $83 billion deficit mentioned in Taylor's report, plus CBO's note in its report that April's surplus was $176 billion, are enough info to enable an update of a chart of what has happened during the first seven months of the government's fiscal year (the final numbers will differ by very small amounts):
Last Monday, Brian Wesbury anticipated (in the second paragraph at the link) that total April receipts would be $390 billion, or 18% (about $60 billion) above the previous record achieved in April 2001. Collections came in slightly lower than Wesbury expected, but still shattered that previous record by well over $50 billion.
Safely assuming that the actual MTS report coming out Thursday has only tiny changes to the above, here's a quick analysis:
- Spending -- Up 3.4% for the year. The spending increase for the month of April looks bad, but it was expected to go up a lot. That's because April 2006's spending was lower than most months before or after it in fiscal 2006. The 3.4% increase in spending for the fiscal year thus far is still below the 5%-plus level I used when I predicted that this year's deficit will be $177 billion. It would be nice to think that the rate of increase won't be higher by the end of the year, but it's probably more realistic to expect it to come in a 4.0% - 4.5%.
- Collections -- Up 11.3% for the year. Taylor failed to note the number ($385 billion) and the status (all-time record) of April's collections. Thanks to those record collections, receipts in this fiscal year thus far are up by a lot more than the 9% I was using. It would be nice to think that the 11%-plus increase will hold for the rest of the year, but even 10% would be impressive.
- The Deficit -- Down 55% compared to this time last year. The numbers through seven months would seem to point to a full-year deficit that will probably be lower than even the CBO's revised number of $150 billion. Replicating last year's $64 billion deficit during the final five months of last year would lead to a full-year deficit of $147 billion, and the trends heading into this year's final five months appear to be much more favorable.
Now to the timing: Let's just say that it's mighty convenient that the CBO released its report on a Friday, when the House was not in session and the Senate convened for all of 51 minutes. It's also quite convenient that CBO didn't mention that April's collections were an alltime record in its report.
If the "nonpartisan" CBO's goal was to get minimal news coverage, it succeeded nicely, as a late Saturday evening Google News search on "CBO deficit" (without quotes) showed only 48 news articles (that's very low for a national story on the economy and the deficit). I did a search on "Congressional Budget Office" at the Times and found nothing relating to this story. The Washington Post did carry Taylor's AP story online Friday afternoon, but I found no mention of it in the Saturday's "print edition" section of its web site.
Now that CBO has gotten the April budget info out early, I would not bet against the following: When the Monthly Treasury Statement is finally released on Thursday, it will be considered "old news," and it to will be virtually ignored.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
UPDATE: This NewsBusters post is now the highlighted story at Google News on the search term ("CBO Budget," not in quotes) mentioned above.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters
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May 6, 2007 - 08:24 ET by totalkaosdaveAnd Hillary is waiting to become president so she can, "...take those profits..." Unfortunately for her, liberal philosophy is to raise taxes and collections will decrease...calling for higher taxes...and getting less...then calling for higher taxes...
calling for higher taxes...an
May 6, 2007 - 08:41 ET by rimskycalling for higher taxes...and getting less...then calling for higher taxes... then just saying, what the hell, I'll just TAKE ALL THOSE PROFITS! It'll be like main-lining right into the CBO.
I think it was earlier than F
May 6, 2007 - 11:30 ET by RackieI think it was earlier than Friday that it was reported on the Bloomberg market watch that the Feds had dropped the 3-year note because the deficit was shrinking.
If this was reported appropri
May 6, 2007 - 13:28 ET by BeowulfIf this was reported appropriately, the Dems couldn't continue to spout off about the Republican's "record deficit" and "out-of-control spending". That would remove at least two dead horses for them to beat, and we can't have that. After all, they're still harping about Bush lied, Bush stole two elections, the Culture of Corruption, "Domestic" wiretapping, and so on. They're even once again bringing up the non-issue "Mission Accomplished" statement...
The Closed Mind Builds Strong Barriers
Just to be clear
May 6, 2007 - 13:57 ET by acumen"They're even once again bringing up the non-issue "Mission Accomplished" statement..."
I agree with your comments wholeheartedly except for the use of the term "statement".
For clarity, Bush has never made the statement "Mission Accomplished". On the contrary Bush has said just the opposite since the beginning of the WOT and has not waivered on that opinion, even though the demediacrats would like to have America and the world think otherwise - which is the sole reason for this clarification.
Text of remarks by the President from the USS Abraham Lincoln
What media bias?
May 6, 2007 - 14:11 ET by acumenSparse coverage indeed. Appears to be a trend and the difference between reporting on this Administration and the last is striking.
As the dot com bubble burst into an American recession the exiting former President was hailed for balancing the budget. After inheriting the recession along with all the other woes thrown at the current President, barely a peep at the almost miraculous recovery of our economy.
As the tide seems to be turning in the WOT with the surge in Iraq making good progress, coupled with no terror attacks on American soil in the last six years and encouraging massive public demonstrations in Turkey and Iran against their Islamo-fascist rulers, this accomplishment by the current President and his Administration is still constantly ignored by the demediacrats. However, the former President and his administration were hailed as heros for destroying an aspirin factory in Africa and a few tents in the desert.
What great recession?
May 6, 2007 - 15:49 ET by daenku32Are you honestly implying that our deficits were results of the Clinton Recession? During the deepest part of our recession, our deficits weren't even this big. Unless you include the tax cuts which deprived the government from income. In fact, right now we shouldn't have ANY deficits, had Bush/GOP done their job. Did they do anything about limiting spending? No. Did they keep money coming into the government coffers to pay for spending? No. That you would even dream that a "mere" $150 billion deficit is something to jump for joy for, is ridiculous.
More so, that there were "no terror attacks on American soil in the last six years" doesn't really mean much when we are losing more lives and money (read "resources", if using 'money' is too emotionally cold) in Iraq than we did in all terrorist attacks in US history.
What exactly is miraculous about our economy's recovery? Besides the loss of paper money and retirement accounts after the stock bust, did our economy really even stumble? Not according to umployment figures. Those didn't start getting bad until we were well into Bush term. Tax rebates? We saw massive economic boom under Clinton even without tax rebates, and with much higher interest rates than under Bush. In fact, Bush admin should be kissing the Feds' behind for saving the economy by stimulating it with rate decreases.
Finally, I really don't see how the secular and liberal demonstrations in turkey are examples of Bush policies working. Turkey has long attempted to get into the EU by become more and more progressively secular. The Bush policies in the past 6 years have only been more government support for specifically religious activities, such as the faith-based initiatives.
When you wish upon a star.......
May 6, 2007 - 16:19 ET by acumenI apolgize, I'm just in too good a mood today to do pessimism with you.
Get a grip on reality and maybe we can talk. I'm too busy enjoying yet another Conservative winning a Presidency. Let's see, add France to the list now, Gemany before, oh, and then there's Mexico, oops can't forget our neighbor to the north Canada, then of course their is our loyal conservative Australian President down under, not to mention Afghanistan and Iraq........hell, even dictators like Khadafi seem to be getting the Bush message. Strange you're not.
"Finally,..." -
May 6, 2007 - 17:07 ET by Rackie"Finally,..." - whew! . Now let's get you cleaned up.
Excuse me, you seemed to have
May 7, 2007 - 09:11 ET by dscottExcuse me, you seemed to have missed a few details of the budget deficit, that being the $500 billion increase in annual Social Security outlays from 2000 (last year of Clinton) to 2006, which btw Bush was sounding the alarm over but Dems blocked any effort to reform the system. Bush can't change demographics unless you are advocating the final solution. You also ignore the little detail concerning tax receipts, an $842 Billion annual increase from 2000 to 2006.
The reason we are jumping for joy is we are well on our way of fixing your problem, that is your fellow Dems created by refusing to deal with reality and making promises you had no intention of keeping during your terms by passing off that responsibility to the next generation.
FYI, you also seem to forget, those investments in retirement accounts are tied to the health of the economy, so all the value that was temporairly lost from the Clinton inspired Dot.com bust is returning. The dot.com bust occured on Clinton's watch, not Bush's, of course you wanted to rewrite history to ignore this little detail to justify your BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome).
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
Based on what I was seeing be
May 7, 2007 - 09:30 ET by dscottBased on what I was seeing before the CBO report, I estimated the final annual deficit to be around $186 Billion, now that gives us a range from $140 to $180 Billion if the Dems don't screw up by passing some rediculous legislation. Which means at this pace, 2008 is on target to be virtually zero annual deficit in the range of less than $20 Billion.
Which also now gives us one more reason the economy should keep going nicely, that being low interest rates from the lack of government demand for borrowing. Watch the 30 year bond as this is a precusor to market valuations.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius