Here we go again...another forecast for an "exceptionally active" hurricane season. Last spring, similar forecasts were touted following the horrific 2005 hurricane season. But what went largely unreported regarding last year's hurricane season was how quiet it ended up being and how horribly incorrect those forecasts were. Obviously we have yet to know how accurate this year's forecasts will be; only time will tell. At least a few big names are going on record as forecasting another busier-than-average season. I would imagine this will grab plenty of headlines over the coming days:
The Atlantic hurricane season will be exceptionally active this year, according to a British forecasting group, raising the possibility that killer storms like Hurricane Katrina could again threaten the United States.
London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday said the six-month season, which begins on June 1, was expected to bring 17 tropical storms, of which nine will strengthen into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Four of those are expected to become more destructive "intense" hurricanes, TSR said.
The long-term average for the Atlantic is for 10 storms to form during the hurricane season and for six of those to reach hurricane strength.
The article goes to cite the inaccuracies in last year's forecasts:
The United States emerged unscathed from the 2006 season after it spawned a below-average nine storms, of which five became hurricanes. Experts had universally -- and erroneously -- predicted 2006 would be a busy year for Atlantic storms.
I have a feeling any article mentioning hurricane forecasts will still remind us of the horrors of the 2005 season, as this one has:
None of the hurricanes hit the United States, bringing welcome relief to beleaguered residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Katrina killed 1,500 people, swamped New Orleans and caused about $80 billion in damage the year before.
As of 5:39pm EST 03/21/07, the article cited in the opening of this post yields 13 'related articles' results from a google news search. Let's see how this count mushrooms over the coming hours and days. I only wish we could somehow see how many (or rather, how few) headlines would have been created had this forecast been for minimal activity this hurricane season. I guess the absence of headlines following last year's remarkably quiet season was a good indicator.
That said, I am in agreement with the overall opinion of a higher-than-average hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures are one of the best indicators of hurricane season trends and appear favorable for hurricane development this season. It is not the above-average forecasts themselves that I question, rather the play these will get in the mainstream media. After all, the planet has a fever, folks! Read much more about Al Gore's senate testimony via Noel Sheppard's posts here and here.
Jake Gontesky routinely posts columns exploring the mainstream media coverage of the global warming debate and other topics in the world of atmospheric science. As a meteorologist, his viewpoints are frequently explored from a scientific standpoint rather than a purely political one. Read more at Notes in the Margin.
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Oh terrific.Just what I neede
March 21, 2007 - 19:23 ET by BlondeOh terrific.
Just what I needed to top off an exceptionally rotten day.
I am hurricane fatigued, just as I am Clinton fatigued. Can't the media leave it alone at least until May?
It's infuriating to see the continous references to "Global Warming" and particularly to Katrina every time the word hurricane is mentioned in the media. Enough of Katrina already. What happened in New Orleans was the result of alot of wishful thinking. Fools.
Sad
March 21, 2007 - 19:30 ET by gfrrmanI agree Blonde. You'd think that that hurricane was the only one that has ever hit land. What about those multiple hurricanes that hit Fl. so frequently back in the 90s" Where was "the Savior" BjC? Nowhere to be found. Unfortunately, the constant drumbeat from the prognosticators will have a chilling affect on future responses when they don't come true. Crying wolf has consequences!
gfrr,Oh, you mean like Hurric
March 21, 2007 - 19:38 ET by Blondegfrr,
Oh, you mean like Hurricane Andrew in August 1992?
I am a native Floridian. I've been through many hurricanes.
Why has Katrina become the hurricane?
Because a bunch of no-brain non-planners did nothing. And suffered the consequences. With attendant chest beating and wailing by the MsM.
And you are spot-on with the cry-wolf thing. That's the worst part of living here...when a hurricane gets within 600 miles it's full tilt boogie on the worst case scenario.
Hurricanes are a fact of life. As are wild fires, tornados, tsunamis, and earthquakes.
Cope!
It's the wolf, it's the wolf!
March 21, 2007 - 21:52 ET by nkviking75Blonde, that cry-wolf aspect of hurricane forecasting comes from the fact the meteorologists still don't have the ability to accurately predict the storm track for any length of time. That begs the question: How can we trust predictions of global warming that span a century?
Here's praying for another quiet hurricane year, or at least that they stay out to sea.
nk,Wasn't there a cartoon yea
March 21, 2007 - 21:59 ET by Blondenk,
Wasn't there a cartoon years ago where the ongoing line was "It's the wooo...ooolf?"
Sounds a tad familiar, regarding hurricanes.
I am SOOOO over it.
Having said that, thanks for the kind words....and sorry about you being from MPLS...the land of libs. It's a heavy cross to bear, I know. :)
Blonde, great minds think alike
March 21, 2007 - 22:04 ET by nkviking75As a matter of fact, I was thinking of a cartoon in which the character actually says:
"It's the wul-luf, it's the wul-luf!" Unfortunately, I don't remember much more than that.
I share my birthplace with Al Franken... scary, ain't it? :0
Driving on the Levees
March 21, 2007 - 20:25 ET by RiharAfter Hurricane Katrina I was visiting a friend in New Orleans that was working to get things back together for some of the small towns outside of NO that were hit much harder. As we were driving in the city he asked me what I thought of the freeway we were driving on. It looked no more than a few years old so I mentioned that it looked new and gave a non-committal "pretty good". I didn't really know where he was going with this.
He said the new freeways in town were paid for with all of the money earmarked for the levees over the past few years. Now granted, I didn't research his claim but he was/is in a position to know.
Things that make you go "hmm".
When a liberal speaks, the truth is busy elsewhere.