The Poll You’ll Never Hear About: Only 27% of Iraqis Believe it’s a Civil War

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

There were two Iraq polls released on Sunday. One is guaranteed to be headline news. The other will likely be totally ignored.

In fact, one of the polls was already referenced by George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week,” as well as reported by USA Today and CNN.

Know what the difference is between these surveys, both of which rather compelling as they asked questions of Iraqi citizens? Well, one painted a rather dire picture of conditions in the embattled country, while the other found a very optimistic people who don’t believe their nation is in a civil war.

As the American media will likely focus all of its attention on the more pessimistic survey, here is the contrary view nobody other than Fox News is likely to cover as reported by the Sunday Times (emphasis added throughout):

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DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants.

The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services.

The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war.

Is it becoming clear why you are unlikely to hear anything about this poll? Yet, that was only the beginning of the startling findings:

The 400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq last month found that the sense of security felt by Baghdad residents had significantly improved since polling carried out before the US announced in January that it was sending in a “surge” of more than 20,000 extra troops.

[…]

49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer.

And, there was even more good news:

The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister.

Another surprise was that only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war. Again, that number divided along religious lines, with 41% of Sunnis believing Iraq was in a civil war, compared with only 15% of Shi’ites.

[…]

One question showed the sharp divide in attitudes towards the continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Some 53% of Iraqis nationwide agree that the security situation will improve in the weeks after a withdrawal by international forces, while only 26% think it will get worse.

We’ve been polling in Iraq since 2005 and the finding that most surprised us was how many Iraqis expressed support for the present government,” said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB. “Given the level of violence in Iraq, it shows an unexpected level of optimism.”

Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government.

Rather unfortunate that Americans will likely hear very little about this survey, wouldn’t you agree?

What a disgrace.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.


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If this is reported on FOX,

If this is reported on FOX, then more people will hear it. All you and others in the new media need to do is learn the tactic of the left, repeat often and repeat loudly.

____________________________________________________

"We can only reason from what is; we can reason on actualities, but not on possibilities." ~ Thomas Paine

I second that lbz.

I second that lbz.

The poll also says that 62% o

The poll also says that 62% of Iraqis want the USA to leave as they think security will improve.

The Times is a Rupert Murdoch paper just as Fox   News is owned by Murdoch.

Murdoch has admitted that he supports the Bush administration!

Read the POLL not the summary.

M J B

I read the poll and NOWHERE did it say "that 62% of Iraqis want the USA to leave as they think security will improve". I believe you have reading comprehension problems.

Of course MJB has reading p

Of course MJB has reading problems... he's a liberal... if it isn't liberal propaganda, they can't see it.

____________________________________________________

"We can only reason from what is; we can reason on actualities, but not on possibilities." ~ Thomas Paine

Iraq

Oh yeah, I see it in the dumbed down version - One in Two Believe Security Will Improve When Troops Withdrawal [sic]

62% of Shia believe it will be better, so therefore we can say All just like any other MSM poll.

Let's cherry pick the one negative in the poll and make it a headline! I'm surprised he didn't say 70%.

  Ignorance is bliss. It's easier to repeat a mindless slogan than to do some actual research.

You have been misinformed.

You have been misinformed. In the future, you may want to remember this occasion should you receive any information from the same source.

No where in the poll is there a question like, or similar to, "do you want the USA to leave". As a matter of fact, just to demonstrate how badly informed you are, not one single poll question includes "USA". Not one single question. USA is listed as an answer to question 7b.

"Q7b And in which country/countries do they now live?"

I bet you can guess what question 7a is, can't you?

"Q7a Do you have any members of your family that have left Iraq over the previous four years as a result of the security situation?"

The only poll question which comes close to what you insinuate is question number 2, "Q2. And thinking ahead, do you believe that the security situation in Iraq will get better or worse in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces?"

<sarcasm>

Oh my. Did they actually say "Multi National Forces"? I thought we were all alone there.

</sarcasm>

If you combine the first two possible responses, "a great deal better" and "a little better", then the percentage appears to be 53%. While 53% may seem a little high, I would not interpret too much in to it due to the phrasing of the question. Notice they said, "... in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of Multi National Forces". No doubt that some people will hold the opinion that there will be some disruption in "the immediate weeks" following a pull out. That would be a fairly normal assumption regardless of the situation. The question they should have asked is, "Five years after all Multi National Forces have left Iraq, will the security situation in Iraq be better or worse?"

I hope you don't take this as criticism, what I am offering is advice. Whenever possible, go straight to the source and do your own research. You won't regret it.

The full report in pdf can be found here -

http://www.opinion.c...

A "prettier" and dumbed down version can be found here -

http://www.opinion.c...

And the parent web site for the report can be found here -

http://www.opinion.c...

Happy reading.

MJB, This is a bit dishones

MJB, This is a bit dishonest on your part. You can't take one response from a poll and paint the whole rest of the picture in the misleading light of your statement.

First of all the numbers you have stated are incorrect. On a total count basis 53% of those polled believe the situation will improve when multinational forces leave and 26% believe they will get worse. (i.e. 1 in 2)

To ascertain what this implies however means nothing in the context of "wanting the United States to leave". That was not even in the mix of questions.

Rather this tells us something important about the efforts of the forces. In other words it points to progress. For instance, take that poll question and combine it with the question that shows only 1 in 4 want to return to the system as it was under Saddam Hussein. Only 26% of those polled believe life was better under Saddam.

Some pessimists may say that this is because Hussein was a Sunni and of course the majority Shia population would skew the poll. But as I said, that would be a pessimists point of view because the poll very clearly shows that only 50% of Sunni's polled wish for a return of life as it was under Saddam Hussein.

In other words they believe they are better off now as well as believe that we have helped get them to a point where they are ready to take over security on their own.

A couple other items to note - The poll has a statistical margine of error at 1.4; a slight bit less than the +-4 we are used to seeing over here. It was also the larget opinion poll ever to be conducted in Iraq on this matter.

While Murdoch may own the UK Times he is not the one that held the poll so your point about Murdoch is moot (to say the least).

But don't believe me. Read the poll for yourself: http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=67

carbon offsets in Iraq

Reflecting also off of the current Gore-ing of Al over his climate change fiasco.... if the democrat slow bleed strategy is enacted, we should sell carbon offsets to Hollywood for funding the war. Logic: fund the troop surge to reduce the greenhouse gases and other toxic chemicals emitted during roadside bomb explosions. This is about the only way the libs are going to get any credit for what is about to be a total military and political victory in Iraq. Today is a good day to be a conservative!

Pragmatism always prevails... even Winston was once a lib.

Even if it were a little bit

Even if it were a little bit a civil war it still wouldn't be the "civil war" the Democrats are pushing Americans to believe it is.  I do hope their recently elected regional representatives aren't spending most of their time running around in other electoral regions already campaigning for another office.  What type of example would that make?

This poll like anything else

This poll like anything else out of Bush adminstration will be proven to be a fraud and a scam.  Just  remember I said it here first.

Joe where does this say that

Joe where does this say that this is out of the Bush Admin?  Perhaps you need more electroshiock therapy.

Nuke em til they glow then shoot em in the dark. -- save my gun, shoot a liberal.

Dan

Joe can't read.....gov't educationed

Look what I found at my favor

Look what I found at my favorate gay web site, the Drudge Report.  In the USA TODAY/ABC News Poll, Iraqis by 43%-36% said life was better than before the invasion.   Why I am blessed with being right all the time.

joe,Yeah, but you missed the

joe,

Yeah, but you missed the poll right above it.

Not to worry, though. We realize that USA Today is written to a fifth grade level, which is one more than you completed.

This republic will not survive the continued neglect of its people.- Neal Boortz.

Dave,joe must like the pret

Dave,

joe must like the pretty pictures in USA Today. I'll bet he has a blast using his silly putty to copy those cool graphs.

"There are two types of people in this country; those who provide freedom and those who enjoy it." MM says...

Your ignorance is showing a

Your ignorance is showing again. The poll was conducted by a British company.

http://www.opinion.c...

HuffPo actually had this on t

HuffPo actually had this on their site yesterday. They quickly removed it.

Although I support what the U

Although I support what the US is doing in Iraq I thought the numbers were worse.

The only thing that worries me is

Table 19: Are you currently employed?

59% answered No. It's really urgent to decrease the unemployment. Would also reduce violence. Because based on what I know about Afghanistan I think the employment situation is equal in both countries.

Did you know that in Afghanistan you can earn only 70$ per week as a police officer compared to the 200-300$ as a Taliban.

This poll was cited on C-SP

This poll was cited on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" yesterday morning. Great show, if you haven't watched it you are missing out. Every morning, 7 days a week, from 6am to 9am CST.

Haven't heard about these Ira

Haven't heard about these Iraqi polls. Hmmmm. Liberals are using any lie to gain political advantage. It doesn't matter that US soldiers will die, or that millions of Iraqis will die if they pull a democratic unfunding, as they did in Vietnam.

Day after day, the liberal press bashes every issue and non-issue in this war that has long been won, ignoring all the good, to help their liberal buddies: Hillary, Nancy, Harry. Then suprise, the american people listening to their stations poll negative.

I support the troops and their mission. To do otherwise emboldens the enemy, prolongs the conflict and causes more American GIs to die.

If the MSM was just neutral, our troops would have been home long ago. 

Of course Shiites prefer current regime

I would have to assume that since 60% of the country are Shiites, that of course 49% prefer having a Shiite (Maliki) in control instead of a Sunni like Saddam.  That is a no brainer.  You could put a cardboard cutout of any Shiite sitting in a chair, call him Prime Minister, and the cutout would poll well.  It is like taking a poll on this website between a Repub and a Dem.  The Dem loses no matter what.  Big whoop. 

Is it not interesting that most Iraqis say that the security situation will IMPROVE when the Multi National Force (MNF) leaves?  Here is the an article clip that shows a little more analysis than the NB one (from the ORB website) :

Nationally a small majority (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of the MNF. A quarter (26%) believes the situation will deteriorate with the remainder predicting no change or answering "Don't know."

It is in the South where people most strongly believe that the withdrawal of the MNF will see the security situation improve. By a ratio of nearly seven to one the Shia dominated South feels that the situation will get "a great deal/little better" (69%) rather than "worse" (10%). In the Sunni North however opinion is more evenly divided – 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse.

Brave, brave brave and a won

Brave, brave brave and a wonderful Iraq PATRIOT, What a great photo.

Then of course we got to deal with joe stalin conservative, pinhead moron, who fills up his yugo WITH EVIL OIL GASOLINE so he can go and buy organic sprouts at the "health store" LIKE IT'S A RIGHT TO BE ABLE TO FUEL UP.  Wake up joe, islamo kooks want to take away your ability to "fill up". Hay joe when was the last time you were THANKFUL you have a full tank of GASOLINE?????????? HUMMM ever???? didn't think so..