A wonderful thing is happening in the scientific world now that the United Nations has claimed that it is 90 percent certain anthropogenic global warming is real: scientists around the world are speaking out against this assertion.
Another such scientist, Canada’s Timothy Ball, wrote an article today addressing his view of the media hysteria which marvelously began (h/t QandO, emphasis mine throughout):
Global Warming, as we think we know it, doesn't exist. And I am not the only one trying to make people open up their eyes and see the truth. But few listen, despite the fact that I was the first Canadian Ph.D. in Climatology and I have an extensive background in climatology, especially the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history and the human condition. Few listen, even though I have a Ph.D, (Doctor of Science) from the University of London, England and that for 32 years I was a Professor of Climatology at the University of Winnipeg. For some reason (actually for many), the World is not listening. Here is why.
Ball continued:
Believe it or not, Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science. We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification. For example, Environment Canada brags about spending $3.7 billion in the last five years dealing with climate change almost all on propaganda trying to defend an indefensible scientific position while at the same time closing weather stations and failing to meet legislated pollution targets.
No sensible person seeks conflict, especially with governments, but if we don't pursue the truth, we are lost as individuals and as a society. That is why I insist on saying that there is no evidence that we are, or could ever cause global climate change. And, recently, Yuri A. Izrael, Vice President of the United Nations sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed this statement. So how has the world come to believe that something is wrong?
He continued:
Maybe for the same reason we believed, 30 years ago, that global cooling was the biggest threat: a matter of faith. "It is a cold fact: the Global Cooling presents humankind with the most important social, political, and adaptive challenge we have had to deal with for ten thousand years. Your stake in the decisions we make concerning it is of ultimate importance; the survival of ourselves, our children, our species," wrote Lowell Ponte in 1976.
I was as opposed to the threats of impending doom global cooling engendered as I am to the threats made about Global Warming. Let me stress I am not denying the phenomenon has occurred. The world has warmed since 1680, the nadir of a cool period called the Little Ice Age (LIA) that has generally continued to the present. These climate changes are well within natural variability and explained quite easily by changes in the sun. But there is nothing unusual going on.
Ball then explained how he came to these conclusions:
Since I obtained my doctorate in climatology from the University of London, Queen Mary College, England my career has spanned two climate cycles. Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990's temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus. It appears I'll witness another cycle before retiring, as the major mechanisms and the global temperature trends now indicate a cooling.
Ball even addressed why many scientists go along with the charade:
No doubt passive acceptance yields less stress, fewer personal attacks and makes career progress easier. What I have experienced in my personal life during the last years makes me understand why most people choose not to speak out; job security and fear of reprisals. Even in University, where free speech and challenge to prevailing wisdoms are supposedly encouraged, academics remain silent.
I once received a three page letter that my lawyer defined as libellous, from an academic colleague, saying I had no right to say what I was saying, especially in public lectures. Sadly, my experience is that universities are the most dogmatic and oppressive places in our society. This becomes progressively worse as they receive more and more funding from governments that demand a particular viewpoint.
In another instance, I was accused by Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki of being paid by oil companies. That is a lie. Apparently he thinks if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment?
Ball then described how this supposed consensus came about:
I think it may be because most people don't understand the scientific method which Thomas Kuhn so skillfully and briefly set out in his book "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions." A scientist makes certain assumptions and then produces a theory which is only as valid as the assumptions. The theory of Global Warming assumes that CO2 is an atmospheric greenhouse gas and as it increases temperatures rise. It was then theorized that since humans were producing more CO2 than before, the temperature would inevitably rise. The theory was accepted before testing had started, and effectively became a law.
As [Richard] Lindzen said many years ago: "the consensus was reached before the research had even begun." Now, any scientist who dares to question the prevailing wisdom is marginalized and called a sceptic, when in fact they are simply being good scientists. This has reached frightening levels with these scientists now being called climate change denier with all the holocaust connotations of that word. The normal scientific method is effectively being thwarted.
Meanwhile, politicians are being listened to, even though most of them have no knowledge or understanding of science, especially the science of climate and climate change. Hence, they are in no position to question a policy on climate change when it threatens the entire planet. Moreover, using fear and creating hysteria makes it very difficult to make calm rational decisions about issues needing attention.
Ball marvelously concluded:
Until you have challenged the prevailing wisdom you have no idea how nasty people can be. Until you have re-examined any issue in an attempt to find out all the information, you cannot know how much misinformation exists in the supposed age of information.
I was greatly influenced several years ago by Aaron Wildavsky's book "Yes, but is it true?" The author taught political science at a New York University and realized how science was being influenced by and apparently misused by politics. He gave his graduate students an assignment to pursue the science behind a policy generated by a highly publicised environmental concern. To his and their surprise they found there was little scientific evidence, consensus and justification for the policy. You only realize the extent to which Wildavsky's findings occur when you ask the question he posed. Wildavsky's students did it in the safety of academia and with the excuse that it was an assignment. I have learned it is a difficult question to ask in the real world, however I firmly believe it is the most important question to ask if we are to advance in the right direction.
Amen, brother.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.
















Editor at Large
Comments Policy
The global warming assault co
February 5, 2007 - 13:13 ET by jonathanandersonThe global warming assault continues in the Midwest ... record lows, record snowfall, record windchill ... the iron grip of global warming has taken hold from Colorado to South Dakota to Oklahoma. God help the people in Siberia, Norway, Alaska, the Yukon, and Antarctica ... the global warming devastation must be unprecedented.
We need to be doing everything in our power to CREATE and INCREASE "global warming". We need to be INCREASING emissions and CO2 levels so we can have milder winters, lower fuel costs, and longer growing seasons.
Globalwarmingtology : the pseudo-science of liberals, eco-militants, enviro-fascists, and intellectual idiots.
ja.... I'm with ya all the w
February 5, 2007 - 13:29 ET by bigtimerI'm with ya all the way buddy!
Brown -- it's the new black
February 5, 2007 - 13:33 ET by Jack BauerBrown -- it's the new black.
Global cooling -- it's the new global warming!
Excuse me? But unless we all
February 5, 2007 - 14:58 ET by Mica the MagnificentExcuse me?
But unless we all get on board and panic about global warming and run down the street screaming like the japanese population running away from Godzilla, how can the U.N. convince you along with the MSM and the libs that a universal United Nations tax on Americans is the only solution to stop global warming? Geez! **
**(run-on sentence purposely there for 'panic effect.')
Sorry. I fell and landed on my back, and it took an hour of rocking back and forth like a turtle to get back up. - Rosie explaining to the 'View' audience why she was late.
Dammit Mica I can't get anyth
February 5, 2007 - 15:07 ET by Chicago RepublicanDammit Mica I can't get anything done at work I'm so busy laughing at that Rosie crack. The mental image is killing me. Damn you.
Mica
February 5, 2007 - 15:10 ET by Noel SheppardMica,
And in the end, that's what this is all about.
The UN has become largely marginalized in the past decade due to the Oil-for-Food debacle, sex scandals, et al. To try to recoup its previous international standing, the UN has jumped on this junk science, and hopes that it finally has the avenue to redistribute America's wealth. Clearly, this is the real reason that it doesn't advocate countries like China and India participate in Kyoto.
This isn't about saving the planet with these hypocrites. This is about saving the UN, and destroying the finest example of capitalism in the world.
Sadly, this all fits into the socialist agenda in our nation amongst much of the left, for if Democrats were honest about this matter, and truly concerned about US interests, they would not be inciting this hysteria. This is why every conservative writer has to continue to focus on this issue so that the facts aren't buried by the lies being disseminated by the left. ns
Noel,I read somewhere a few m
February 5, 2007 - 15:18 ET by Mica the MagnificentNoel,
I read somewhere a few months ago that the U.N. already floated the thought of taxing Americans. This could be the gateway.
The UN has been trying to fig
February 5, 2007 - 15:20 ET by florida_chadThe UN has been trying to figure out a way into the pockects of US citizens for many years now.
Mica,Over my dead body.
February 5, 2007 - 19:27 ET by BlondeMica,
Over my dead body.
mica ..(rosie joke).......owe
February 5, 2007 - 19:54 ET by ww thumpermica ..(rosie joke).......oweee!! my ribs ar e sore! ow...can't breath...falling off chair! roflmbo............:-)) ww v Being "Politcaly Correct" with ISLAM will distroy America......V
Science is not a "Gallop poll game"
February 5, 2007 - 20:57 ET by judahisThe media has been so fabulously effective that, even though I studied climatology at Columbia University and University of Wisconsin-Madison and Milwaukee, oceanography from a professor from University of Washington, had completed all my MA work in physical geography at Univ Milwaukee, and most of my PhD courses at Univ Madison, etc my son (a Psychology BA) and my wife, an accounting major, rale at me for being so stupid, naive, etc for not believing in what Hair Gorebells and the media are preaching. It seems to me that many are not getting the basic concepts of science here:
Science is not a "majority rules" game. It is a grueling struggle to derive some
sense from the seeming chaos of the world, that turns out to have much more of
God's logic than man's. Also to exclude all other possiblities except one is not the way science usually works. The best possibility is most often the one chosen and research contiinues. My reading of the data does not support Al Gore's verbiage, but who am I if but an insignificant minority member.
February 5, 2007
Not a Democrap or a lip-brawl, mostly a conserve-a-tiff. Famous words
of elderly from movie "Moonstruck: "Somebody tell a joke" . judahbenheard.com
Dr. Ball
February 5, 2007 - 13:32 ET by Dave RKudos galore to Dr. Ball for maintaining his intellectual independence on this farcical issue, not to mention preserving his common sense, which so many of his compatriates seem to have checked at the entrance to the Church Of Global Warming.
GW has become the new religion of the left. It even has its own minister, Al Gore.
I guess the left has decided that Marxist/Leninism alone will not fly in this country in their never ending battle to destroy free-enterprise and weaken this country, so they have decided to employ other methods in their effort. Whoever it was that said the environmental movement has red roots was dead on.
...yes it is a church/religio
February 5, 2007 - 14:05 ET by TruthMonger...yes it is a church/religion - BEING FUNDED BY THE STATE, NO LESS - no "seperation clause" needed here, right...?!!
..."my experience is that universities are the most dogmatic and oppressive places in our society..."
We need a companion site to NB called "schoolbusters" dammit...
"GW has become the new
February 5, 2007 - 17:47 ET by Buford"GW has become the new religion of the left."
Rush likes to say that environmental extremism is the new home of communists. They couldn't beat us as communists so they want to drag us down with needless regulations that threaten our financial wellbeing.
Let me guess...Dr. Ball wasn'
February 5, 2007 - 13:39 ET by aeroLet me guess...Dr. Ball wasn't invited to the international symposium of muckety-mucks who have decided man-made global warming is 90% certain. How frustrating it must be to be one of these scientists who knows it's a giant fraud! Good for Ball, Lindzen, Shaviv, and others for speaking out, though it has the distinct feeling of being too little, too late.
For me, all it takes to be a "skeptic" is watching the evening weather predictions and then sticking my head out the door the next day. They can't even predict the temperature for tomorrow within 5 degrees--why in the world would I believe that they can predict a 2-degree change across the entire globe over a period of years?
Keep 'em coming, Noel!
Wall Street Journal had an ar
February 5, 2007 - 17:18 ET by Carbon SasquatchWall Street Journal had an article today about last week's UN release. Turns out the policy statement is written by agenda-driven wonks. The actual scientific report is due in May and WSJ's sources who have seen the draft found it remarkable for the level of backpedaling from previous 'sky is falling' predictions.
Love the handle!!!
February 5, 2007 - 17:52 ET by aeroLove the handle!!!
Golly, Vern, them are shore b
February 5, 2007 - 18:11 ET by Carbon SasquatchGolly, Vern, them are shore big footprints.
Careful Aero; some leftist
February 5, 2007 - 19:38 ET by whitetopCareful Aero; some leftist may pick up on the fact that meteorologist predict weather on a day to day basis (not very well I might add) but Dr. Ball is a climatologist and he probably has the credintials to make predictions about climatic changes over extended periods. Of course predictions are based on hindcasting. However, the true climatologist, professionals who based their findings on scientific methodology are not buying into the GW crap of Al Bore.
Then there is the Bore deciple from the Weather Channel, Dr. Heidi what's her name, who believes any meteorologist who speaks out against the GW crap should lose their certification. I hope she is monitoring the job lists in case an opening comes up at TASS. Here is a woman who can't hit her ass with both hands let along predict the weather for two days straight with 50% accuracy. Yet she threatens true professionals with their livelyhood just because they don't buy into the liberal global warming. Some village is missing an idiot and in her case they probably aren't going to identify themself.
Some refer to the GW issue as junk science. I'm not sure it even comes up to the level of junk science. It is nothing but political pandering of the worst kind.
In another instance, I was ac
February 5, 2007 - 13:40 ET by nofateIn another instance, I was accused by Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki of being paid by oil companies. That is a lie. Apparently he thinks if the fossil fuel companies pay you have an agenda. So if Greenpeace, Sierra Club or governments pay there is no agenda and only truth and enlightenment?
I wonder if "I eat puppies" and others of his persuasion are paying attention to this? Fred Singer needs some good company out in the open like this. Good science has absolutely nothing to do with "consensus".
"The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves."
I tell my kids that you don't
February 5, 2007 - 14:20 ET by Ruths husband BenI tell my kids that you don't have to know everything about everything to figure out the truth. All you really need is a good high quality bu!!shit detector, which can be purchased for free by thinking things through. A good example is the global warming "debate". All I need to be able to figure out is who is lying to me (playing me) and why and I know which side to be on. And you know what? It didn't take long to figure out that Al Gore and his kind are liars.
Now I can't spot every lie in the global warming debate, but I have spotted enough to be satisfied. I appreciate this man speaking out, but I seriously doubt if any of the scientists with research $$$'s sparkling in their eyes care about the facts.
If my youngest son said that he wanted to be an environmental scientist, I would advise him to sell snakeoil instead, less schooling but with the same career path.
Having a Ball
February 5, 2007 - 15:40 ET by acumenNow if Dr. Ball can just follow-up by giving us his take on Bush's cutting-edge hurricane-producing/steering machine........
Gore's shady character should be part of global warming debate
February 5, 2007 - 15:45 ET by j17ghsPart of the global warming dialogue should be Al Gore's character and past, as he is the most visible promoter of the socioeconomic plan that hinges on mass acceptance of global warming. Gore comes from a racist, tobacco-lobbying family (his dad was also a U.S. Senator who filibustered and voted against black civil rights), and Gore's family has a history of doing most anything for a buck, especially when motivated by resentment and the hateful ideology of the Old South.
The Media has made a SERIOUS
February 5, 2007 - 15:58 ET by JayTeeThe Media has made a SERIOUS mistake. You can B>S> on the News of the day, or Iraq, and when you're wrong just don't bother to correct your news, or apologize, because -hey- the Liberal Media controls the Liberal Media.
But if you BS on the Global warming Scenario, the weather doesn't lie, and the "people" will discover the B.S. over time, and it the TRUTH will be on ALL the TV channels...mainly the Channel of "Living one's everyday life". The chicken Little story of Global Warming will stay with today's teenagers for all their life, and they will remember who lied to them about Santa Claus, and who lied about Global Warming.
You can't hide the Weather, and when Schools are closing today because of the Wind Chill advisories, Global warming suddenly begins to look like B.S., feels like BS, and when you start hearing about it again.......it will Sound like BS.
It's obvious to the most Casual Observer, and will continue to be obvious.
If you want answer's to a Question, if you want Information, you GO TO THE WEB...That's the wave of the Future, and the Media is pushing everyone in that direction. They are shooting themselves in the foot, and now we can see the Blood.
JT...I only hope you are righ
February 5, 2007 - 16:24 ET by Clear thinkerJT...
I only hope you are right. This past Friday and Saturday I hooked up with an old friend that I had not seen or talked to in over 10 years. Just prior to me arriving he had watched a special on one of the major networks. The subject was global warming. He watched the hour long program with his pregnant 22 year old daughter. All this came out later that evening over dinner. He was literally scared to death, which did not help his daughter dream about a bright future for her soon to be newborn. I asked as many questions as I possibly could to find out what the program has stated, and it was exactly what we have all been hearing. Basically, it stated that we humans have destroyed the earth and it's the damage is so complete that it will take centuries to recover. Anotherwords... we are doomed! After an hour long debriefing by me, I was able to calm his daughter only a little.
Because the media is spewing whatever the global warming alarmists tells them, I now know a young woman (with child) that is questioning bringing a child into such doom and gloom. For those of you that don't know me, this has absolutely infuriated me. I am now officially on the warpath to gather scalps from the GW alarmist whores and the media pimps that promote them!
Get us Al's scalp! You know
February 5, 2007 - 16:51 ET by dscottGet us Al's scalp! You know what we really need is a web site that shows the GW promoters size of homes, the gas mileage of their cars and private jets they own. Al Gore for example owns two homes, one 10k sq ft and the other 4k sq ft, he therefore uses 5 to 7 times the electricity the average American uses (2,500 to 2,000 sq ft average home). One trip in a private jet uses at least 2 years worth of gas that an average commuter would use (20 mile each way, 50 weeks a year). With such large houses there must be an equally horrendous water usage for landscaping, unless the house is on a postage stamp.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.” – Marcus Aurelius
dscott...Gore is at the top o
February 5, 2007 - 16:55 ET by Clear thinkerdscott...
Gore is at the top of the list!
GW and old friend
February 5, 2007 - 17:36 ET by misterbillI met my oldest and dearest friend for exercise at the Y today. While we walked, we discussed GW. I shared with him some of the things I have learned since joining NB and reading MRC. He said to me "Well , you just went and found someone who agreed with how you feel." I was crushed. Almost 40 years of close friendship. I recovered and I told him later that he was very unfair to me. I told him that I once was a GW person. I derided those who drove SUVs, (still do, but for a different reason). I also said that I looked for the truth and I found it. I told him of the suppression of opposite views by the MSM. He was amazed that my feelings were so hurt by his statement. I said to him "You lumped me with the main stream media when you said that to me and that is a prime insult."
Net, net, at close of conversation he asked me where I check out my data. I told him for openers to start checking MRC. I explained MRC and its purpose to him. I am very curious to see what the next few weeks produce. I plan to send him a link to Ball's report.
PS This goes to showing how the average person listens to the network news and how they formulate their opinions.
MB
February 5, 2007 - 17:55 ET by Noel SheppardMB,
Good story. I'll give you another one that centers on a health club.
I'm in the locker room at my club last week, and a friend there mentioned how warm it was that day. I joked, as I always do now, that it's because of global warming. He said, "Yeah, you're probably right." I said, "Actually, Gary, I was kidding."
This precipitated about a five minute discussion on the issue -- with me doing most of the talking -- focusing on what isn't being reported, and how much is being misrepresented. At the end of the conversation, he thanked me and said, "I guess I have to do more research on this."
The reality is that probably 90 percent of the population get their opinions on issues like this from the media, and this is why so many folks are buying into the junk science. As a result, people who see the truth have to do everything possible to disseminate the accurate message even if it's going to anger their friends. :-) ns
Noel -MSM
February 5, 2007 - 19:06 ET by misterbillNoel -MSM. I believe the average working person in America unconsciously rations his/her time. We are a very busy society. I am retired for only 9 months now, and I can take the time to investigate things I see or hear that do not seem correct to me. I also think that I have a subconscious filter that makes me suspicious. Today was a day of revelation to myself. Without even realizing it, I had stopped watching network national news for quite some time now. Today's discussion with my friend reminded me that I started to become a skeptic during Vietnam reporting. I came to the conclusion, that one thing ended the war in 'Nam, the American public. Why?? Two very important mainstream news videos, the little girl running up the road naked, with napalm burns. The other was the street execution of the NV spy by the police chief of Saigon. The American public does not have a stomach for it. They think war is a video game and everybody gets up and goes home when the game is over. So, they made us leave 'Nam after we won and turned it into a loss. One could argue that it was great newsworthy stories and photos. But, one could also argue (and I subscribe to this) that the MSM accomplished their goal. The MSM wanted us out of 'Nam. It fit their agenda which is more and more coming to light. When will Americans wake up and take the time to find truth??? If you don't spoon feed it to them, it will never come out. This bodes ill for America in the next few years.
PS Nasty as it seems I am happy that certain news rags are having financial problems. On the positive side, I think some of it is because the public is getting tired of negativity in the news.
The left has accused Ball of
February 5, 2007 - 19:11 ET by chessplayerThe left has accused Ball of receiving money from Exxon, so they will never take him seriously.
Dr. Ball is pretty funny. He'
February 5, 2007 - 19:35 ET by throatwobblerDr. Ball is pretty funny. He's suing a newspaper and a sicentist for catching him lying about his credentials (and I see he continues his exagerations here). Check out the court documents:
http://www.desmogblo...
Anyone care to wager on who wins the lawsuit? How about betting on average global temperatures over the next decade?
Validation
February 5, 2007 - 20:34 ET by acumen"Until you have challenged the prevailing wisdom you have no idea how nasty people can be."
Thanks for validating Dr. Ball's above assertion, throatwobbler.
Hey Throatpecker. I think you
February 5, 2007 - 21:13 ET by danboHey Throatpecker. I think your friends would have and still are saying the same thing about the Fred Singer/Lancaster lawsuit.
People have been getting fed up.
Excuse me if I don't take the word of the gifted minds at desmog or deltoid and wait till the lawsuit is settled.
Danbo,I took a look at that t
February 6, 2007 - 00:21 ET by NL207Danbo,
I took a look at that tripe on desmogblog that Wobbler was pointing at. I also looked in on Source Watch. The only content I could find was a lot of ridicule directed at Dr. Ball because he made statements directly contradictory to what those whack jobs believe is true. There is no evidence there that any of the academic credits Ball claims are other than genuine. He really does have a Phd and it is in the field he says its in and from the University he claims. he really was on faculty in Winnipeg at the times he says he was on faculty.
These lefties also condemn him as "who is a "scientific advisor" to the oil industry-backed organization, Friends of Science. " from Source Watch.
Apparently ity is an offense to be connected with oil companies. These people cannot even show the Dr. Ball ever received ay direct personal remuneration from oil copmpanies.
I can't comment on the likely success of Dr. Ball's suit in the Canadian Courts. Were the matter being heard in US Courts I'd put my money on Ball. These other guys did just what Justin lancaster did to Fred Singer, a bunch of bad mouthing.
The most I could find followi
February 6, 2007 - 00:55 ET by danboThe most I could find following their tripe was arguing over the number of years. Etc. If many of us had taken a graduate student to supervise in a pracitum. In many universities we would be classified as faculty. Even while we worked elsewhere. Ditto for retired profs who are retained on the faculty to occasionally come around to advise or do research.
The biggest issues will be the defamation of character. Without knowing more about the case. But having watched similar attacks.He may very well have a case as did Singer. And Singer won.
If you go down into the "Exxon Secrets" And "Tobbacco Investigation" loads of guilt by implications. But I didn't find anythimg solid.
But, you never know what's going to happen in a court room.
I'm curious if the people he's suing are members of the groups who have targeted the 60 scientist who had the gonads to write the Canadian PM.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
You obviously didn't read the
February 6, 2007 - 00:56 ET by throatwobblerYou obviously didn't read the different statements of claim. Ball complains that Dan Johnson said he was an "entry level Phd" but what Johnson actually said was Ball didn't have an entry level PhD until 1983, and therefore could not be a professor for as long as he claimed. Let's see , even if he started his professorship in 83 he's still 8 years before he can claim 32 years of professorship. And he retired in the 90s. Oops. But math is not a strong suit for the sceptics.
Further, Johnson merely said Ball was not the first Canadian PhD--and it isn't even close. Kenneth Hare got a PhD in arctic climatology in 1959 beating Ball out by a scant 24 years.
All of Johnson's claims are verifiable and Ball obviously puffed up his c.v. I hope this suit is not thrown out. Ball should be embarassed in court for this legal harassment.
Speaking of puffed up.Dr. Weg
February 6, 2007 - 01:22 ET by danboSpeaking of puffed up.
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H.L. Mencken
Betting man? Eh??First Rule
February 5, 2007 - 21:36 ET by NL207Betting man? Eh??
First Rule: We use raw readings from NOA. None of this "recalibration" of historical records nonsense that the IPCC is doing right now to conceal the cooling that occurred over the interval 1945-1965.
The standard of measure is the regression fitted mean global temperature chart maintained and updated yearly by NOA. i've posted this link before. you ought to be able to find it.
Second Rule: You claim these Gods of Science you worship are right. Well, they have predicted a temperature increase in this century between 1.7 and 5.4 degrees Celsius. You've also told me they are being conservative in their estimates. Let's be generous here. If they are right, then we should see roughly +0.35 degrees C increase per decade until 2100.
Terms of the wager: $20. If mean global temperature as measured by rule 1 increases as predicted, 0.35 dgrees C or more, you win. If it increases less than that, you lose.
Special bonus clause: If the temperature increases more than 0.54 degrees, you get $40. If the Temperature increase less than 0.17 degrees, you lose $40.
Last: If for some reason the chart in question is no longer published and computed as it has always been, all bets are off.
Moving goalposts again
February 5, 2007 - 22:02 ET by UnsaneIt is apparent that no matter the credentials of the scientist, or how many, Pope Guiltwobbler I of the Holy Temple of Global Warming will not be appeased.
(Until, that is, the economy of the United States is completely destroyed. It is the only way he can be free of guilt.)
"HAV3 TH3 BRIDG3S OF INSANITY B33N CROSS3D AND FOR3V3R R3TRACT3D???." - Meshuggah, "3ntrapm3nt", from Catch Thirty Thr33 (2005)
You do realize that you are b
February 6, 2007 - 00:46 ET by throatwobblerYou do realize that you are betting the 50/50 line of the scientific consensus, don't you? Sound like you think it's 50/50 that warming will be 3.5^ or below. That's my position too.
So you think it will actually
February 6, 2007 - 00:54 ET by NL207So you think it will actually get 0.35 degrees warmer on the best fit plot NOA keeps?
Suppose we choose the interval to be 1997-2007?
I could get the same bet from
February 6, 2007 - 01:10 ET by throatwobblerI could get the same bet from a climate scientist. You think the IPCC is a joke, so why are structuring a bet so that you win if they are right?
How to win the GW argument
February 6, 2007 - 01:17 ET by misterbillThey got their butts covered until we are all dead!!!!
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/041217_sealevel_rise.html