'Romney Inevitable?' AP Sure Seems to Hope So
Based on a report filed earlier today and time-stamped 8:16 p.m. as of when this post was prepared, it would appear that the last thing Associated Press writers Charles Babington and Kasie Hunt want is a competitive Republican primary season, and that they'll twist reality and the numbers to fit their meme. Oh, and in case you haven't gotten the establishment press memo, Rick Perry is still Mitt Romney's only real competitor.
Funny, I don't remember the AP or anyone else in the establishment press calling Hillary Clinton's nomination "inevitable" in October 2007, when, according to Real Clear Politics (RCP), Ms. Clinton was outpolling Barack Obama by an average of 24 points in 18 polls (and by probably more over John Edwards, though that info wasn't available at RCP).
Though it's not definitive because of the passage of time and the disappearance or archiving of reports, a Google News Archive search from September 1 - December 31, 2007 on [Hillary inevitable "Assocated Press"] (typed exactly as indicated between brackets) returned no story posing the possibility of Mrs. Clinton's inevitability. But in 2011 on the Republican side, Babington and Hunt have gone full-bore for a Romney wrap-up (bolds and numbered tags are mine):
Romney inevitable? Perry weighs TV ads to slow him
Mitt Romney seems firmly in command [1] in a Republican presidential field that hasn't figured out how to stop him.
Twelve weeks before the first party voting, the GOP establishment is coalescing around the former Massachusetts governor. He has more campaign experience, money and organization than anyone else. He showed again this week that he's the best debater in the bunch. [2] And President Barack Obama's campaign is treating him almost as the presumptive nominee [3] - even though Romney still faces challenges in some early voting states.
The biggest question in Republican circles is when and how Texas Gov. Rick Perry will use his own substantial campaign funds to buy TV ads hitting Romney's record on health care, abortion, gay rights and job creation.
Perry's campaign, which seems best-positioned to challenge Romney, dropped broad hints Wednesday that the moment is near.
... The tone is different up the coast in New Hampshire. Among rank-and-file Republicans there, even those who favor other candidates have a sense that Romney has gained an air of inevitability.
... Although Republican and Democratic insiders see Romney as the front-runner, several signs give Perry and the other rivals hope. Most Republican polls show Romney falling well short of a majority of support, [4] as restless voters consider one alternative after another.
Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota surged in mid-summer, then fell as Perry briefly soared. In recent polls, former pizza company executive Herman Cain has ranked as Romney's top rival, [5] although few campaign strategists believe he will be the nominee. [6]
An NBC-Marist College poll in Iowa found that tea party supporters prefer Cain. In national polls, combined support for Cain, Perry and Bachmann exceeds Romney's support. [7]
Seriously, you almost have to wonder what planet Babington and Hunt are on, because so many items they claim to be facts are simply either vast understatements, erroneous, delusional, or some combination:
- [1] -- Romney's "firm command," as carried currently at RCP, is all of 2.7 points over Herman Cain. More on that shortly.
- [2] -- Does anyone recall consensus conclusions that Romney has clearly "won" many or most of the debates so clearly that the AP's "best debater" tag is justified? Neither do I. Search through top-tier conservative blogs and you won't find evidence obviously supporting Babington's and Hunt's fantastic notion.
- [3] -- Romney supporters won't like reading this, but there is plenty of reason to believe that the Obama campaign wants Romney to be the GOP's nominee because they believe they can defeat him. So of course they're going to play along with the AP's and the rest of the establishment press's "inevitability" game.
- [4] -- "Well short of a majority of support"? How about "not even averaging one-fourth support"? Romney's recent polling average at RCP is 22.0%; he hasn't polled above 25% in any poll carried at RCP since mid-July.
- [5] -- How nice of the AP to wait until Paragraph 11 to mention the name of the current GOP runner-up at RCP. Just this evening, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll came out showing Cain leading Romney by 27%-23%, with all other rivals, including Perry, to whom the AP report devoted seven paragraphs, trailing by over 10%.
- [6] -- See Item [5]. If polling is supposed to ultimately reflect voting, why do "few campaign strategists believe he (Cain) will be the nominee"? Maybe the better question is why anyone bothers polling if they're going to completely ignore the results.
- [7] -- The combined RCP figures for Cain, Perry, and Bachmann don't merely "exceed" Romney's support. At a combined 38.4% vs. Romney's 22%, they're within striking distance of doubling it, and even closer thanks to the new poll mentioned in Item [5].
Nothing is "inevitable" about this race, and if Charles Babington, Kasie Hunt, and the Associated Press haven't figured that out yet, they should spare us all the pain of reading and listening to their syndicated reports and just quit the news business. If they know better and are falsely and deliberately reporting "inevitability" which clearly doesn't exist, they need to tell us why.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
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Comments
Anything can happen
Submitted by shawn. on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 1:00am.
Look at the republican primaries last time. Many expected Rudy Guilanni to win in early polling, then Fred Thompson, McCain winning was surprise.
The last election everyone expected Howard Dean to win the democratic nomination, but John Kerry took the nomination.
I am a believer in polls, but they tend to change very quickly and there is a lot of time left for anyone to take this thing.
..agree Shawn, still wide open
Submitted by vrwc13 on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:27am.
Just don't need another "McCain(the dems choice, which now seems to be Romney)" losing to Obama(?).
Would really like to see the Dems come up with a real candidate.
v
The burden of life is from ourselves, its lightness from the grace of Christ and the love of God. - William Bernard Ullanthorne
They want...
Submitted by GeneralAl on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 2:22am.
This is 2008 McCain all over again. Remember the constant drum beat of "Only McCain has the best chance of beating Clinton or Obama"? The AP, along with the rest of the media and the liberals have their polling and they want Romney because they consider him their best chance. Bill O'reilly was pushing him last night and knocking Cain as unable to win. Once again, they're trying to pick our candidate. Go PICK your nose, Lame Stream Media!
"Old Soldiers never die, they just fade away"!
You're absolutely right.
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 7:17am.
This is so obvious it isn't even funny. They want to pretend to be making an impartial assessment, but then they say "former pizza executive" [snicker] Herman Cain.
They can't bring themselves to say "successful businessman"
They are despicable.
Unfortunately For the Media....
Submitted by NavyBuckeye on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 7:23am.
I LOVE PIZZA!!!!
And I like Herman Cain. He is articulate, down to earth, smart and was a successful business man. And since he's black he cancels out my racist anit-obama vote in 2008
No, you're still a racist.
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 7:34am.
You called Cain "articulate." ;-)
You forgot to mention that he's "clean" too.
I think his only disadvantage is that he can't slip into that Negro dialect when he wants to.
IOW-he's not a phony
You're missing an important point, Tom
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:05am.
If they know better and are falsely and deliberately reporting "inevitability" which clearly doesn't exist, they need to tell us why.
Liberals know the truth. The facts are a conspiracy. (motherbelt's axiom)
They just "know" Republicans will never choose a black man.
At this moment, my preferred ticket would be Cain/Gingrich. The more I hear from Newt, the more I'm impressed by him.
He can't get the nomination, but I think we need TWO straight talkers. And he's no slouch on foreign affairs either, an area where Cain falters.
I agree sort of...
Submitted by c5then on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:29am.
But it is really more like the MSM is not so much wishing for Romney as trying to pre-select him. The publishers and producers and editors are all on the same page here. Since there is definitely going to be a GOP contender to Obama, and since he actually might win, better it be a wishy-washy moderate who used to be a democrat than any of the others.
They are doing everything in their power to diminish and marginalize Cain because he really scares them. I mean look at it from their simplistic viewpoint: If they don't "do something" the race might come down to an incumbent black liberal president with very low approvals versus a conservative black businessman with momentum. They won't be able to play the race card (except for insane people like Sharpton, Shultz and that "professor" who looks like Don King's younger clone).
Polls are already showing that registered republicans will vote for the GOP nominee almost by 100%. Registered democrats are going to vote for Obama by only about 75%. What happens if Cain splits the "black vote"??!!! Most independants are heavily leaning "not Obama".
Madison and Jefferson and Franklin built a Republic - Roberts killed it!
Oh no you did-ent
Submitted by texasborngranny on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 1:05pm.
'that "professor" who looks like Don King's younger clone'
made me laugh so hard, I woke the dog.
polls
Submitted by kinijane on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:00am.
I have yet to see a poll that puts Romney in the lead, hes always a point or 2 behind someone,
please explain how that makes him the front runner. I think the press wants to put McCain
back in the running. Nothing better than beer and pizza.
Apologies if I appear to be
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:12am.
Apologies if I appear to be trying to monopolize this thread, but Hot Air has this from Allahpundit:
Republicans really, really don't want to nominate Romney.
But the MSM will continue to report their wish as fact.
I'm going to elope
Submitted by mom_rox on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:54am.
Does anyone else get the feeling that having Romney as the GOP candidate is like an arranged marriage selected by the RNC party elders?
...no mom_rox
Submitted by vrwc13 on Fri, 10/14/2011 - 8:31am.
It's more like being arranged by the Dems party elders...
...John McCain redo
v
The burden of life is from ourselves, its lightness from the grace of Christ and the love of God. - William Bernard Ullanthorne
BOR stated unequivocally
Submitted by bkeyser on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:19am.
last night that Cain can't win the nomination. Not that I care what BOR has to say on the subject, I'm just wondering why he'd say that on his show. Did Cain turn down an appearance offer? If he didn't he surely should now.
I also wonder why so many people are relying on campaign cash as the main measure of a candidate's viability. Sure, historically that's played a big role, but other than BOR, why would Cain or any candidate turn down a camera? And if you're on camera, you're able to pitch your message and fairly inexpensively. There are 13 more scheduled GOP debates! That's plenty of exposure. And if one candidate is running negative ads on another, doesn't that say as much about the offensive candidate as the defensive one? Especially in today's political world?
Maybe I'm wrong here, but with the internet and cable news, I just don't see interminable and annoying campaign ads as the path to election. I think the GOP electorate is better educated than that, for the most part. Sure, money will be important, but no amount of money can buy back Romneycare or Perry's immigration record. No amount of money can make Paul look lucid on foreign policy or make Huntsman a conservative.
I agree, bob.... They think
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:11am.
I agree, bob.... They think that money and connections make the candidate.
Larry Elder at Townhall seems to agree:
Herman Cain is not going to be the GOP nominee.
Without a serious star-power staff, a ground game, chits to be called in by the candidate or the candidate's influential network of friends of influence, the "fat cats" sit on their checkbooks until and unless they believe their horse can win. A serious presidential candidate is not one who, like Cain, breaks from campaigning for a book tour timed to coincide with his unlikely quest for the White House
Elder really threw me on this one. I think he's right on the first part (but there's still plenty of time), completely wrong on the second.
Cain did NOT "break from campaigning." He was doing both. I don't know why he's going along with the media's accusation that he's gone off the campaign. If Hillary Clinton had done the same, the media would have considered it part and parcel of the campaign, why not with Cain?
Not only that, but why does Elder (or anyone else) think he can decide that Cain shouldn't be doing anything else but campaigning? Didn't President Obama say there would be plenty of time for campaigning in 2012?
I'm dumbfounded by Elder's take on this.
Well MB, as Mark Levin pointed out
Submitted by Boudin on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:11am.
Last night, Cain leads Romney in just about every poll. So the media, (just like every other topic) doesn't know what it's talking about.
I have to admit though, I am disappointed about Bachmann and her attacks on other candidates. I would also like to hear more from Santorum and Newt, other then the debates they both seem to be mute. I will also confess, that Romney has done very well in the debates, enough so, that I dont fear him.
Romney vs Record
Submitted by Agnostic on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:19am.
With the reading on Romney and comparing his previous campaigns and his time in office he gives me the impression that he will govern with every attempt to maintain the course he sets during his campaign. I would get nervous with Romney if he had a Democrat Congress to contend with because he would then shift to the left because he would assume it is the will of the electorate. JMO
Fox News going downhill
Submitted by Kuso Jiji on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:02am.
Tuned into The Factor last night for the first time in awhile and saw OReily completely in Romney's camp going as far as telling his audience that Cain will never be elected President and allowing his expert to claim Christie is a Tea Party darling without any factual evidence or debate to back that up.
OReily's success has gotten to his head and he needs to come back down to earth. He is wrong as much as he is right and to me, being right 50% of the time with that much influence is dangerous.
The only way to sort out this Republican field is to listen for yourself and find a political analyst who hasn't picked one candidate over the other. The only place you are going to find that is with a couple radio hosts on the AM dial I am afraid. You are not going to find it on TV.
I don't think it's a
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 9:08am.
I don't think it's a matter of right or wrong. He is entitled to his opinion, which, as I say about my own, is free and worth every penny.
But I completely agree with you about his success going to his head. It's why I quit watching him a few years ago.
Haven't watched Oreily in a
Submitted by NC Cop on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 8:57am.
Haven't watched Oreily in a long while. Now I remember why.
from the same people who brought you John McCain
Submitted by Rousse on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 10:09am.
Never forget that the main-stream media's previous choice for the Republican nominee was Maverick John McCain. Ever wonder why they pushed him so hard and heavy?
If AP says Romney will be the nominee, then you can bet your hand-tooled leather boots that we need to look carefully at some one else. Who do you suppose scares AP the most?
Who do you suppose scares AP the most?
Submitted by Texndoc on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 10:48am.
Rick Perry.
Governor of Texas. Pro-death penalty. Anti-global warming. Pro-life. Anti-lawyer. Pro-business.
He's not one to call Mr. Obama "a nice fella" like Mittens and McCain. Rather "something you would scrape off your boots after rounding up the herd."
He terrifies Meghan McCain, David Frum, David Brooks, Byron York and Charles Krauthammer, too. All pro-Romney.
Oui.
Submitted by Rousse on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 11:13am.
Oui.
Not Perry who
Submitted by texasborngranny on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 1:36pm.
does NOT take a strong stance against illegal immigration.
is living in a mansion of over 6,000 square feet, with five bedrooms, seven bathrooms, THREE dining rooms, a heated pool, and a $700 clothes rack. The mansion costs taxpayers over $10,000 per MONTH during on-going repairs to the Governor's Mansion since it was damaged by fire in 2008. Obviously, he loves to spend OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY.
favors in-state tuition, giving rights to the children of ILLEGAL ALIENS that are not even given to the children of US citizens.
is only slightly less inept and unqualified for president as Barack Obama was. Not something we need more of.
is too much like Romney and McCain, i.e. Democrat-lite.
Sorry to disagree, Texndoc, but at this point in time my primary vote would go to Cain.
Missing Headline
Submitted by Caringwhiteguy on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 11:13am.
Over these past couple days since Chris Christie endorsed Mitt Romney, I've been patiently waiting for someone in the media, or someone in the NewsBusters family to trumpet the appropriate headline. I haven't seen it anywhere, so here it is . . . credit to me.
"RINO ENDORSED BY HIPPO"
ROTF ...
Submitted by Tom Blumer on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 11:41am.
... LMAO.
Oh, CWG,
Submitted by texasborngranny on Thu, 10/13/2011 - 1:37pm.
that was sooooooooooooo bad... and sooooooooooooooooo funny!!!