AP Dresses Up a Housing Confidence Index's Tiny Rise From Near Rock-Bottom
On Thursday, I noted (at NewsBusters; at BizzyBlog) that the Associated Press's Marty Crutsinger and Chris Rugaber worked very hard to gloss over October's horrid housing market news as reflected in the Census Bureau's reports on housing starts and building permits.
That's bad enough. But a Tuesday report covering the latest release of the Housing Market Index (HMI) by the National Association of Home Builders demonstrates how utterly determined the wire service is to put gobs of lipstick on a very ugly pig.
For context, I'll show readers the complete 25-year history of said index.
Here it is (scroll down to the Table 2 linke here to download the Excel file):
Given the history, can anyone reasonably claim that an index increase from 15 to 16 justifies anything resembling positive coverage--especially when you realize that September's original reading of 16 was revised down to 15 in October? It is, if you're the AP's Alex Veiga, who also conveniently saved his subject matter expert's quote for the last paragraph, perhaps so it would end up on the cutting room floor in most subscribers' relays of the story (bolds are mine):
Homebuilder sentiment index rises in November
U.S. homebuilders battered by the worst summer for home sales in a decade are already looking ahead to spring, saying they feel somewhat more optimistic about the prospect for an uptick in sales.
The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its monthly index of builders' sentiment edged up in November to 16, the highest reading since June.
The index sank to 13 in August and September, the lowest level since March 2009. It rose to a revised reading of 15 last month, but continues to reflect an overall grim industry outlook.
Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market.
... Many builders are not seeing a dramatic improvement in the number of potential buyers visiting their model homes, but those who do drop by appear to be more serious about buying in the near future, said Bob Jones, the NAHB's chairman.
"Though the gains have been incremental, the fact that builder confidence has improved over the past two months is encouraging," he said.
... The index measuring current sales conditions was unchanged this month from October at 16, while the reading for foot traffic from prospective buyers rose one point to 12. But the index for sales expectations over the next six months inched up two points to 25 after improving from September to October by five points.
(final two paragraphs)
The index's reading for improved sales expectations over the next six months is subjective and should be taken with a grain of salt, said Ticonderoga Securities analyst Paul Przybylski.
"The market is not going to have a significant improvement going into next year," he said. "It'll probably be 2012 before we get off the bottom."
"Grain of salt"? Try a truckload.
The AP's Veiga "somehow" forgot to tell readers that the NAHB's "highest since June" reading was really "the same as June." In historical context, saying something good about October's result is like getting excited when an 0-12 NFL team finally wins a game -- in overtime, because the refs blew a call that cost the other team the game.
What the history chart above shows is that builder sentiment has never really gotten up off the mat since its trough in late 2008 and early 2009. Instead of letting the market recover relatively quickly on its own (see early 1991 by comparison), the Obama administration has extended the pain through government-led attempts at artificial stimulation, with all too predictable poor results. As seen above, once the homebuyers' credit ended in April (after some extensions into the next several months to allow for deal closures), builder sentiment went straight into the tank again.
Other than to carry out its apparent unspoken mission to prop up the administration's pathetic economic performance at any cost, including its own credibility, how can the AP possibly justify blowing 570 words on a one-point increase in an economic index that is still near rock bottom, while trying its best make it appear as if it means anything other than the housing industry is still in the deepest of doldrums?
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
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Comments
As someone who spent 30 years working in a closely related...
Submitted by Dave. on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 10:32am.
...industry - so close as to be essentially incestuous, I can state with some confidence that anyone who actually owns real estate at this point is much too intelligent to fall for any MSM scheme to put yet more lipstick on the friggin' pig that is Barack Hussein Obama and his so-called economic "recovery," which has been a lie since minute one.
-Dave
Vote for the American in November
Why is it not incumbent upon
Submitted by Barack_must_go..... on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 10:55am.
Why is it not incumbent upon the Obama White House and the democrat party to speak out against these obvious lies, that have a profound effect on every aspect of our economy, by their cohorts in the lame street media?
Yet simultaneously they hypocritically demand the Republican party condemn the entire Tea Party community for one questionable sign or the removal from the airwaves of Limbaugh and Beck for merely exercising their first amendment rights.
The real threat presented by the lame street media acting as the propaganda disseminating arm of the Obama socialist regime is the covering up of the true dire situation of the health of our nation, which hurts every man, woman and child vs. a few politicians egos get bruised by the truth once in a while.
Barack_Must_Go.....
Spreading the Wealth Around
Submitted by Kingfish17 on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 11:03am.
One of, if not the single most revealing comments from Obama was when he said, " I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody" to Joe Wurzelbacher, (aka Joe the Plumber).
The law of supply and demand and the price of housing was totally turned upside-down when the feds decided to allow Fanny and Freddy to package government guaranteed mortgage loans to individuals with no money down and no financial means to ever pay back their mortgage loans. Banks, mortgage companies, and brokerage firms where more then happy to participate in this scam because it meant huge immediate profits.
So now we're left with a mess. Housing will not recover until housing prices are allowed to fall to "market levels", meaning the true economic "supply and demand" price of a house.
The latest thing delaying a true market bottom is the "Home Forclosure Debacle" that is being foisted on the lending industry and the American public. People are being allowed, and almost encouraged, to live payment free in homes that they have no intention of ever paying the mortgage. I have not seen one single instance where a mortgage servicer has forclosed on a home where the occupant of the house was current on their mortgage payment, (or even within a grace period).
When people are living in homes that they can't afford for up to two years without making a single payment, it is nothing but a form of "Weath Redistribution".
"You can’t go take a trip to Las Vegas...on the taxpayer’s dime." Barack Obama
Wealth Redistribution---
Submitted by matthewdean on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 8:14pm.
a perfect description of Welfare.
Just a thirteen letter longer one.
MD
Less negetive?
Submitted by CobraMan on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 2:36pm.
Ok, the housing index is up from last moth, even thought the index indicates rather severe negative rates (anything below 50 is considered negative) so I guess the AP is saying that home builders are "optimistic" that the numbers indicate a "less negative" trend. Is that what they're claiming?
That's like claiming that a home owner is optimistic because the flood waters aren't flowing in as quickly as there were an hour ago. Yes. it's a disaster, but things are looking up. Unless, of course, you're waiting for the waters to, you know, actually recede.
The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States. The US Constitution
Unless you're a fetus. The US Supreme Court
Or Anwar al-Awlaki.
NAHB numbers…
Submitted by JPR1 on Sat, 11/20/2010 - 3:58pm.
Interesting, scanning this table reveals:
’98-’00 – a very strong market, likely the result of the shadowy dot com economy;
’01-’02 – things settle out a little, 9/11 no doubt a factor;
’03-’05 – Things are roaring back to life;
Then… by the middle of ‘06 we’re headed south in a big way. Turnaround is nowhere in sight.
Hmmmm, what happened?
Are there any economic indicators that don’t show a downturn after the Dems took over Congress? Like spoiled adolescents they simply shouldn’t be trusted with money. Nor should they be expected to accurately report the facts.
How did the weakened MSM drive the Index to 8?
Submitted by Avitar on Sun, 11/21/2010 - 9:05am.
The cliff from 14 in Oct. of 2008 down to 9 after the election in Nov. 2008 and down to 8 when Obama was sworn in January 2009 like the rapids in a river betrays dangerous hidden rocks in our political system.
When Pelosi took control of the Congress in January of 2007 anyone with a background in history or economics could see the Democrats were intent on wrecking the economy that Bush had been holding together by his finger nails from the day he took office. After about nine months they managed to drive the country into recession so they won the Whitehouse in 2008. After they won control in 2008 most of us expected them to stop trying to tank the economy they did win the Whitehouse but they have not stopped driveling the country into depression.
Bob Novak documented that the numbers being reported at the end of the Clinton administration were false. The country may have been in a deep recession the day Bush took office but until the Democrats took the Congress he prevented much of a slide. Now Bush's tax rates are going back to the Clinton rates that had us in a recession and there is a horrifying collection of taxes that were hidden in the Obama care bill that are arriving besides. In the Country’s already precarious position Obama is about to hit it with the biggest tax hammer in history. Anyone who knows what the Laffer Curve is can see the US sliding down the Laffer Curve in the next two years to be only a fraction of the country the United States was in January 2008
I call for the new state Governments to convene a Constitutional Convention with an absolute ban on any Federal Employee past or present from attending or speaking. I do not think that the country will survive to 2012.