At NYT's Dot Earth: Young Scientist 'Disheartened' by Climategate; Core Problems Ignored

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ClimategateNew York Times environment reporter Andrew C. Revkin had a post yesterday that was primarily about an open letter from Judith Curry.

Revkin describes her as "a seasoned climate scientist at Georgia Tech .... (who) has no skepticism about a growing human influence on climate." Revkin writes that "Dr. Curry has written a fresh essay that’s essentially a message to young scientists potentially disheartened in various ways by recent events."

Here are some of the key paragraphs from Curry's letter that touch on that matter:

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Based upon feedback that I’ve received from graduate students at Georgia Tech, I suspect that you are confused, troubled, or worried by what you have been reading about ClimateGate.

What has been noticeably absent so far in the ClimateGate discussion is a public reaffirmation by climate researchers of our basic research values: the rigors of the scientific method (including reproducibility), research integrity and ethics, open minds, and critical thinking. Under no circumstances should we ever sacrifice any of these values; the CRU emails, however, appear to violate them.

.... (one student wrote to me that) "The content of some of the emails literally made me stop and wonder if I should continue with my PhD applications for fall 2010, in this science. I was so troubled by how our fellow scientists within the climate community have been dealing with opposing voices (on both sides)."

.... So with this reaffirmation of core climate research values, I encourage you to discuss the ideas and issues raised here with your fellow students and professors. Your professors may disagree with me; there are likely to be many perspectives on this.

.... A better understanding of the enormous policy implications of our field should imbue in all of us a greater responsibility for upholding the highest standards of research ethics. Hone your communications skills; we all need to communicate more effectively. Publish your data as supplementary material or post on a public website. And keep your mind open and sharpen your critical thinking skills. My very best wishes to you in your studies, research, and professional development. I look forward to engaging with you in a dialogue on this topic.

Curry's correspondence is nice, but peripheral to the core problems Climategate exposes. 

What's notably lacking in Revkin's report, Curry's letter, and many other Climategate-related establishment media reports is any willingness to entertain the notion that the scandal completely undermines the scientific basis for the argument that AGW (anthropogenic global warming) is occurring.

It seems that no one will dare say that the pathetic state of the data described in the leaked e-mails and the demonstrated willingness of those who control it to massage it hollows out the entire core of the AGW argument. As I understand it there is no other comparable data set.

Short of creating a fresh batch of comprehensive, transparent, auditable, and totally traceable data supporting the existence of AGW, at this point it is currently barely more than a hypothesis -- marginally no better or worse than one which might theorize that the earth is cooling and humans are causing that.

Separately, my hypothesis is that troubled science students, rather than focusing on how to deal with outsiders, are primarily shaken up by the conduct of scientific insiders, and the relatively nonchalant reaction to it. That would lead students entering scientific pursuits to logically fear that:

  • The quality of their work, and ultimately their career progress, will be judged not on rigor or merit, but on how well that work fits pre-existing templates.
  • If their work is at first supported but then called into doubt, they will be pressured to tamper with or conceal underlying research data to refute and rebuff doubters instead of engaging their arguments.
  • They may end up in constant, daily, stressful battle with colleagues whose primary interest is in advancing political or ideological agenda.

Given that those caught red-handed cooking the books and playing hide-and-seek with the data have yet to see any meaningful sanctions or discipline for what they have done, students would logically fear that if they fight for scientific values when they are compromised by political factors, they will be fighting alone and ostracized by their peers.

Though their number is unfortunately shrinking, there are still other fields of life endeavor that don't have this kind of potential ugly baggage.

Thus, I believe that Ms. Curry's letter barely scratches the surface in attempting to articulate students' sadly valid concerns.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters

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Core Prolem Ignored

Like how much money from the government went into scientific projects and scientists' pockets?  Like how deep does the scandal go at the corporate, university and government levels?  Like how many of the news organizations (or their parent companies) now running interference for the fraud have money invested in green technologies?

Does anyone remember the denigration of

the "Big Bang" theory?  Does anyone even REMEMBER the competing theory?  I don't.

 Global warming theory will hopefully go the way of the OTHER theory, and global warming scientists with nasty mouths and a closed mind will go the way of the Do-Do Bird.

"What experience and history teach is
this - that people and governments never have learned anything from history,
or acted on principles deduced from it."


G. W. F. Hegel

No Comparison

If LeMaitre's Big Bang Theory postulated that within a generation the universe was going to blow itself to hell because of man and that something had to be done about it immediately, you might have a comparison.  If he doctored his findings and lied about those findings, concocting phony peer reviews and refusing to show his "evidence" to skeptics in his field, you might have a comparison.  If government used his theory to strangle people out of their money and insinuate itself into their lives, you might have a comparison.

The best way to advance scientific hypothesis' and theories is to open them up to scientific critique and then respond to that critique.  In the real scientific world theories gain respectability by standing up to criticism and surviving it.  Doctored and withheld data, lies, ad hominems against any who question a theory ought necessarily to raise questions about it. 

I don't see the comparison,

I don't see the comparison, frankly. You lost me.

But, as to the Big Bang theory (that relies upon an initial condition of an infinitesimally small, infinitesimally dense point -- it does not provide any explanation for such an initial condition. I simply can't get my mind wrapped around the concept of such a small object spawning trillions of nuclear-fired stars within 100's of billions of galaxies. Until someone can explain that initial condition, I'm not signing up to believe it is correct.

__________
"mmm, mmm, mm. Barrack-Hussain-Øbama↓." - The liberals coolaid drinking song

ThisnThat, The

ThisnThat,

The explanation for your concern has to do with Einstein's famous E=mc^2. The universe was initially in a high energy state. As the universe expanded and cooled, some of that energy (E) was converted to matter with mass (m).

Given enough energy, you can make as much matter as you want. 

Not good enough for this

Not good enough for this simple mind of mine. With that much energy available, why was it in such a small space? What was holding it together? How long was it held together? Why didn't the "Bang" go off much sooner at a lower energy level? How did the energy get there? What existed prior to the Big Bang? And where was "there" anyway?

Like I say, Big Bang can't answer these questions. This "initial condition" of the Universe needs to be better explained -- unless the real explanation is actually "Let there be light".

__________
"mmm, mmm, mm. Barrack-Hussain-Øbama↓." - The liberals coolaid drinking song

If memory serves, when

If memory serves, when Richard Dawson, professional atheist, was asked similar questions, his final response before walking away from the interview was something like, "Maybe aliens from another planet made it all happen. How do I know?" Guy's a genius, eh wot?

No citizen's right to life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, or property is safe as long as Obama is President of the United States.

celator, Well, what with

celator,

Well, what with all his work on Family Feud and Match Game, you can't expect the the guy to be up on current theoretical cosmological models, can you?

Hydro...good point ;=] No

Hydro...good point ;=]

No citizen's right to life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, or property is safe as long as Obama is President of the United States.

celator, Sorry - I

celator,

Sorry - I couldn't resist  :)

ThisnThat, Present

ThisnThat,

Present theories can only extrapolate (speculate?) back in time to a fraction of a second after the time of the singularity of the Big Bang - before that time, the characteristics of the known forces of the universe are not understood.

No, scientists currently can't answer the questions you have - well, I could clarify some of the things you bring up, but I really don't think you care. A lot of folks are working to try to understand these things, be we aren't there yet. Maybe never will be.

If the fact that science doesn't have a complete explanation for the creation of everything makes you dismiss Big Bang - OK. If you don't put much weight in those theories - OK.

If to you "Let there be light" is a good enough explanation - OK.

I'm sure the scientists that work on those theories won't lose any sleep over it. And I'm sure you won't either.

but then hydro

some of the matter existed in an infinitely small and dense state while space and time itself are part of the universe and did not exist before the big bang.  Since we know the big bang occured we can also know there is at least one other time dimesion which transcends the universe and the time we know

The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” -- Chief Justice John Roberts 

botg, As I understand it

botg,

As I understand it - and I'm not a cosmologist, so correct me if I'm wrong - matter can't exist under the conditions soon after the Big Bang.

Science currently can't comment on what the state of the universe was at the time of the Big Bang since we don't have any physical models which describe those kinds of extreme conditions that aren't basically speculative.

Comments about things like time (or logic or math or cause and effect) are speculative regarding what came before the Big Bang since those concepts are rooted in our universe. Go outside of the universe, and there's no reason to think any of those things apply.

And yes, that last statement is paradoxical.

TheHistorian, I'm not

TheHistorian,

I'm not sure if I'm reading you right but Big Bang is still the central model of cosmology.

What "denigration" are you talking about?

And the "competing theory" was the Static Universe model. Some cosmologists believe it, but not many.

Static Universe or

Static Universe or Expanding Universe -- neither can answer the question: Where are the boundaries? It's another concept I can't get my mind around. If the universe is expanding, is it expanding into something that is already there, or is it creating "there" as it expands? If it is static, then where are its edges? And what lies just outside of those edges?

__________
"mmm, mmm, mm. Barrack-Hussain-Øbama↓." - The liberals coolaid drinking song

ThisnThat, I know. The

ThisnThat,

I know. The universe is complicated, isn't it?

Or maybe it's us making it complicated.

Historian, there

Historian, there are actually TWO competing theories: the Steady State theory, and the Oscillating Universe theory.  They, along with the Big Bang, are just theories.  One of the comments below snarkily mentions, "Let there be light..."  That seems to me to be an early postulation of the Big Bang.

Yes, there was supposed to be a singularity prior to the beginning.  How did that singularity come into being?  How long was it stable? What caused it to destabilize and explode?  If there was an outside influence that caused that destabilization, what was it, and what was its origin?

There are plenty of questions about the Big Bang, and evidence that does not particularly support it.  It can never be proved, because it cannot be replicated.  Much of the math supports the Big Bang, but not all.  And, what if the math is incorrect?  Much of what holds this universe together is dependent on the Higgs Boson, which has never been observed in the laboratories.  The Large Hadron Collider may (or may not) reveal the Higgs Boson.  If the Higgs isn't found, some of the math behind the Big Bang is wrong, and the theory will have to be rethought.  Just because the Big Bang is the theory du jour doesn't mean it is right.

An interesting question is, if the universe is expanding, and is the surface of an expanding sphere or speroid, what (if anything) is "inside" the sphere? 

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

MikeB, Just a few of

MikeB,

Just a few of comments:

Oscillating Universe Theory is actually a sub-theory to Big Bang. So the two competing theories are Steady State and Big Bang.

I wouldn't say the "math" supports Big Bang. Empirical evidence seems to support the theory. Math is used to try to describe the details.

You mention that there is evidence that doesn't support Big Bang. I'm not a cosmologist so I'm not up on this stuff, but could you clarify this?

(And no, I'm not being confrontational - I honestly am curious - and apparently, too lazy to go look it up myself).

The universe isn't viewed as the surface of an expanding sphere. The expanding sphere is just an analogy to explain certain aspects of Big Bang - like why all objects seem to be receding from all other objects and how there isn't really a "center" to the universe.

Take heart fellow warmers

Take heart fellow warmers and future prophets of eco-doom. A setback for sure has occured, but do not fear, yes data has been skewed and results faked and contrarian findings suppressed. But dont worry about any of that, because the Message, and Idea of AGW is still a Just and Right cause, and our end result is still out there waiting for us.

-----Unfortunatly the indoctrination is running so deep and complete that the above message does seem to resonate with the sheeple-------

Some young "scientists"

So, these aspiring scientists of tomorrow couldn't take an our or two out of their day and do a little basic research into the politics of the people who are pushing this colossal fraud?

Or maybe its because they share in the goals of those who are using this scam to increase their control over the rest of us.

Either way, ClimateGate will be quietly swept under the rug, and soon it will be back to business as usual, and our tax dollars, in the form of research grants, will be flowing once again.

Remember, the goal in all this is to cut America down to size, both financially and economically, as it just isn't faaaaaaaaaaaayer that we have more than other countries.

Besides, we all know that if 3rd World nations run by Marxist potentates are allowed to steal enough of America's wealth (that Obama hasn't yet managed to destroy) that the world is going to be a much better place for all of humanity, right?

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.  

These students have been

These students have been raised on Global Warming by teachers, professors and politicians. Their "Good and Just" career pursuits have just been revealed to be a sham. I suspect they are in shock and it will take some time for them to admit the lies. Doctors like Curry (along with the rest of the AGW crowd) have no interest in addressing "inconvenient" facts that threaten their livelihood and reputations.

I've been "disheartened" for a long time

and frankly ashamed at the scientific/engineering community on this issue.  When a blowhard like Al Gore says that it is settled science, alarm bells should have gone off throughout the scientific community.  "Settled science" means a lot more than all/most the scientists within a single narrow discipline agree.  It means that a very large majority of scientists among a myriad of disciplines (climatology, physicists, chemists, mathematicians, statisticians, etc.) have signed off on things.  I'm a Ph.D. analytical chemist with a far stronger math background than most scientists.  My greatest disappointment is reserved for the mathematical / statistical community who has failed to call BS on this from the get-go.

There is utterly no way the measurement system is robust enough for any of the claims that are being made.  Period.  Anyone with a good probability / measurement system background and an ounce of sense knows this and the egg-heads in the math and statistics departments throughout the world should have stepped up to the plate long ago.

Please note that I'm not arguing that the climate is not an important issue, only that the science and subsequent conclusions that have been drawn are not on solid footing and certainly not "settled science." There is much more work to be done to prove what they think is occurring.

HF

hungarianfalcon, As a

hungarianfalcon,

As a chemist you must know that it is precisely because science is so compartmentalized into narrow disciplines that this has happened.

If I work in condensed matter, my opinion about GW means next to nothing. In fact, I would have to readily admit that since my main area of work isn't climate science, I really can't say squat about their work.

On a personal level, as someone who works with/creates computer models, I don't place much worth in the predictions of global atmospheric models. But that's just my opinion. And it would (maybe justifiably) be viewed as an uninformed one to those who work on GW models.

I call BS

there are plenty of chemists that overlap well with physics.  They're
called p-chemists.  The country's filled with countless Ph.D p-chemists
that typically have trouble finding gainful employment outside of
universities and gov't agencies.  There are also countless chemists
whose area of expertise overlaps with environmental science.  They're
called environmental chemists. Here's one:

http://hites.chem.in...

 

You're silo argument doesn't hold water and, frankly, I think you're full of crap.

HF

hungarianfalcon, I think

hungarianfalcon,

I think you really need to take a deep breath and read my post again since nothing you said addressed anything I wrote.

And if by "silo" argument you meant that fact that science is specialized, please explain to me how Physical Review - a specialized journal just for physicists - has no less than five (or six or seven depending on how you want to count it) major subdivisions.

or maybe you're just letting off a little steam or something

Hog wash

Let's not forget that Curry is a dedicated scientist, with an open mind. Which makes you wonder why she also wrote the following in her open letter:

"...I’ve tried in my quest to understand skeptics..."

What a cheek. SHE'S the scientist; SHE'S the one who's supposed to be
the skeptic.

skeptic

Good catch!

I'm not a scientist but I play one on the internet

Aren't researchers and scientists supposed to share their findings with other researchers and scientists to get a consensus?

If this is no longer the case, politics and ideology will trump science.

I guess this is what Obama meant when he said in his inaugural address:

We will restore science to its rightful place.

Undermining

This just undermine AGW, it undermines how scientists now do alleged science. If you can't trust the experts or their data, then the science is worthless.

Excuse my ignorance

but isn't Climategate proof that "experts" have rigged the data?

And their unwillingness to share their "rigged" data with skeptical scientists provides further proof they knew if they shared their "rigged" data it would hurt their real goal of financial gain for the Algores out there?

I'm sticking with the skeptics on this one.

→ Worried

Good observation about "return science to its rightful place"

And science now sits at the right hand of Obama.

LYDSEXICS UNTIE!

Dan Gainor, Forgive me if

Dan Gainor,

Forgive me if I'm reading you wrong, but are you saying that because a relatively small group of scientists acted unethically, we should question all scientists?

Yes, we SHOULD question

Yes, we SHOULD question all scientists.  And those scientists should question each other.  The should also publicly share the raw data and the coding that produces the results they came up with in order for other scientists to validate or invalidate their conclusions.  And, it should be a huge red flag anytime such a scientist refused to make public the data and methods and insisted the debate is over and that consensus had been reached.

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

Journalism is already dead. "Science" is not far behind...

...if this what we have to look forward to.

Apparently the concept of Scientific Method is no longer in the curriculum.

MikeB, I meant "question"

MikeB,

I meant "question" in the sense of assuming they are all full of crap - which is what Dan seemed to suggest.

Obviously, scientists should monitor themselves. And in most cases, it works fine.

In the papers I've read over the years, authors are very clear about what data they are working with and how they are analyzing it or how they are doing their calculations. That's the norm.

One point of contention though - regarding the publication of code. From my experience, you don't typically do this. For one - it would make journals way too long. Although I guess you could make it available online (and some scientists do).

For another, most people really don't care (have you ever tried to read someone's code - it's tough).

Lastly, if I spend a year working on a computer model, I'm not inclined to just hand out my code. Granted, it's a bit selfish, but the fact is, there is competition within the scientific community.

I apologize if I

I apologize if I misconstrued the sense of your comment.

I, too, might be a bit disinclined to share coding which I spent who knows how much time on.  However, it does need to be done to keep scientists honest.  Mann didn't want to reveal his code because it would show that his program was not an analysis method, but a graphic.  McIntyre used Mann's code, and discovered no matter what data he entered, he got the hockey stick. 

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

Here come the AGW

Here come the AGW apologists to the rescue.   Dr. Judith Curry is one of the antagonists who fueled the attack on Dr. Chris Landsea when he was forced out of the IPCC.  She and her group:

http://patarnott.com/atms749/pdf/HurricanesAndPolitics.pdf

http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/climate/pdf/testimony-curry.pdf

Look in the next few months for the hasty publication of papers from "Independent Researchers" reconfirming the Mann hypothesis.  Curry is one of the likely sources of such work, being unrepresented in the mainstream of the CRU emails and therefore 'independent' of the corruption in evidence there.

NL207.. re: Landsea's withdrawal from the IPCC

It was my understanding that Chris Landsea withdrew from the IPCC. While assuming that there was heat in the background, I hadn't heard he'd been forced out. Ref: Chris Landsea leaves IPCC:

Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.

With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for my decision ..

.. an so forth.

Isn't it amazing how many journalists, TV news correspondents, anchors and activists, like Larry King and Bill Moyer, etc., just fight over getting their turn to have him on as an expert voice in the on-going public debate on AGW and cyclonic activity and the IPCC political process.

(;~/ gary

Read between the lines of his resignation

He tells you why he resigned :  He thinks he is being forced to write that which he believes to be unsupportable from the data in the IPCC 4AR.  In fact, his superior conducted a press conference about his section of the assessment report that did not reflect what he was going to write.  Specifically Landsea does not believe there is sufficient data + understanding available yet to draw a correlation between Hurricane patterns and intensity and global near surface temperature.  Not that he thinks there isn't, but there is no proof there is.  The question is still unanswered in Landsea's opinion.

The only scientific papers out there that claim demonstrable correlation between global warming and hurricane intensity are by Judith Curry and her associates.

NL207

My comment was not so much for arguing the details of his resignation; rather, just an excuse to post the link of his statement here for others to read.

Seems to me that Landsea argued that in the event that we did experience some significant warming, he supported the "possibility" that it could result in a 1 to 2% increase in hurricane intensities (everything else staying the same). And the GW crowd leans forward (picture the scene in the control tower in the movie "Contact"). A 2% increase in wind speed in a 135 mph cyclone brings it up to 137.5 mph - whew!! Run for your lives. I've had the opportunity to talk to him on a few occassions - a really nice guy.

(;~> gary

I appreciate your link to

I appreciate your link to Landsea's resignation.

I also appreciate the scope of Landsea's scientific opinion.  He is saying that AGW is literally a fart in a gale when it comes to Hurricane intensity.

You mentoin Hurricane intensity.  I am always amused at the doomsayer's descriptions of Katrina.  It came ashore a a strong cat 3, with winds in the 145 mph range.  I was in Pensacola shortly after Camille and saw the destruction that hadn't yet been repaired.  It came ashore with winds so powerful that nobody is really sure how strong they were.  All the meteorlogical instruments that passed the eyewall were destroyed.  The closest survivor recorded 215 mph.  That was in 1969.  The last storm stronger than that was in 1935.

NL207

Back in 1988, I was on Cozumel, MX when Hurricane Gilbert hit. Here is a pic of it as the eye came over us. If you look real close at the south edge of the eye, you can just make me out looking up thinking it was over. Seriously -- the first half of the storm had belted us with hurricane + for around 12 hours (they say some gusts were recorded at 225mph), and as the eye was so small and we were just off the eye wall (could hear it screaming a mile away or so), while it was rather calm - we couldn't see any blue looking up - so got caught briefly running for cover as it hit full force again. Difficult to know what it going on with out the news, etc.

Got to run..

(;~> gary 

 

Piltdown and Peers

I find it strange that there are no e-mail exchanges with Piltdown
Man.

Questions:

What is a peer?

Do I need to return to academia and earn a degree in peering?

It would seem to me that postings and discussions on Blogs are
peer reviewed.

From my vantage point the 'panic' in the AGW camps is caused, to
some degree, by the failure of measurable/observable weather
patterns/climate to follow predictions generated by IPCC style
modeling. My interpretation of available data is that CO2 levels have
continued to increase yet global temperatures have not tracked these
higher concentrations.

research

Research is largely someones opinion with foot notes. 

NT- meant to post as a reply

NT

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