Though Alarming, AP's Report on October Deficit Still Misses the Big, Ugly Picture

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http://i739.photobucket.com/albums/xx40/mmatters/uncle-sam-broke.jpgIt might seem odd, given its content, that I'm about to criticize yesterday's Associated Press report on the deficit.

After all, AP business writers Martin Crutsinger and Daniel Wagner did give us the facts about Uncle Sam's October Monthly Treasury Statement, put them into historical context, and told us that we face $1 trillion-plus shortfalls in fiscal 2010 and 2011.

But the pair missed a couple of receipts-related items that would have hit readers right between the eyes if noted, and would have indicated just how dire the government's financial situation has become.

The first omission: Collections of corporate income taxes were negative, as the government paid out an astonishing $4.5 billion more in refunds to corporations than it collected. The second: In a month mostly unaffected by individual estimated payments (these are normally paid in April, June, September, and January), year-over-year collections of individual income taxes were down by 29%.

Here are the key paragraphs from Crutsinger's and Wagner's coverage:

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Federal deficit sets October record of $176.4B

The federal deficit hit a record for October as the new budget year began where the old one ended: with the government awash in red ink.

Economists worry that if such deficits continue it could push up interest rates, further dragging on the fragile economic recovery.

The Treasury Department said Thursday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, even higher than the $150 billion imbalance that economists expected.

The deficit for the 2009 budget year, which ended on Sept. 30, set an all-time record in dollar terms of $1.42 trillion. That was $958 billion above the 2008 deficit, the previous record holder.

October was the 13th straight month to show a monthly deficit - another record. It was the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever.

The imbalance came mostly from lower receipts of individual and corporate taxes. Receipts were $135.3 billion, a 17.9 percent drop from last October.

Spending dipped 2.7 percent to $311.7 billion. Last October's outlays were inflated by the $33 billion spent on the first round of financial bailouts at the peak of the financial crisis.

The Obama administration expects this year's deficit to reach $1.5 trillion. That would make it the third straight record annual deficit.

..... Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on a visit to Tokyo on Wednesday, told reporters that "as growth recovers and strengthens, we're going to bring our fiscal positions back to a sustainable balance."

Here is how October 2009's raw receipt and refund amounts compared to October 2008 and 2007:

USrecsCollectionsRefs1009v08v07

If you think that's scary, look at how the individual line items came out once refunds were netted out against collections:

USrecsBySource1009v08

The individual income tax collections drop above is 29%. Though it has probably previously occurred at least once during past decades, I haven't see a net corporate refunds number in the four-plus years I have been closely following federal fiscal finances.

As fact-filled as the AP pair's report is, here's the bigger uncommunicated picture:

  • The nosedive in receipts shows no signs of abating. In key areas, it is still accelerating.
  • Meanwhile, spending seems destined to remain at or above $300 billion a month.
  • If the collections and spending trends continue for even another few months -- and there's little reason to believe they won't -- the full-year deficit estimate cited by AP will be severely understated, and hopelessly outdated.

Thus, I think Crutsinger and Wagner owed readers a bit more than they provided.

Finally, if the cash normally generated by economic growth isn't coming in, you have to wonder how legitimate Tim Geithner's assumption that we are currently experiencing sustainable growth really is.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Good place to put this

Our local paper had a one sentence letter to the editor today:  The economy stinks because the nation is suffering from B.O.

Sure made my day.

Semper suprene nitens

OBAMACARE: If it ain't good enough for my Congressman then it ain't good enough for me.  

 

Defecit spending = $220 million PER HOUR

That's on track to put us in the hole by $2 Trillion annually.  

Somebody has to stop the insanity.  This isn't sustainable even in the (very) short term.  And with Obama & the lunatics in control....they won't slow down until we are bankrupt.

I hope he fails, too.

 

 

That's on track to put us in the hole by $2 Trillion annually.

Holeinthehull

We are bankrupt, but no one has contacted the morgue.  It truly is insanity, maybe we can charge Congress with financial terrorism!!!

Did TARP and stimulus really "drive" the 2009 deficit?

I also noted the assertion:  "The devastating effects of the country's worst recession since the 1930s and the government's efforts to stabilize the financial system with a $700 billion bank bailout fund and a $787 billion economic stimulus program drove the 2009 deficit."
 
I thought that the TARP funds were NOT counted as an "expense" -- at least for 2009.  And that now we hear that a lot of this will be paid back soon.
 
Also:  Isn't most of the $787 B stimulus destined for spending in later years, and thus NOT part of the FY 2009 deficit?
 
So, although they finally seem to be off the "war cost" canard, there's really little explanation of how spending increases / revenue reductions that contributed to the deficit.

GREAT catch, T65

To the extent that TARP "investments" were written off, they would have been expenses, but the bad investments (GM, etc.) didn't happen until later. So you are absolutely correct.

I went back and looked at outlays before UST did its net present value magic, and found that that Oct. 2008's disbursement were $402 billion, $72 billion more than the $330 bil after the adjustment

If you look at last year's "other" under the Treasury Department in this year's Monthly Treasury Statement, you'll see that it's about $35 billion, vs. $2.7 bil this year. There is no further detail on what it is (natch), nor is there any detail on what is in last year's pre-adjustment number of $116 bil (still available at the 10/08 statement). I suppose a lot of digging around UST's TARP stuff *might* unearth it. But of course, the objective is to make it as difficult, tedious, and time-consuming as possible.

AP

Whenever the AP criticizes this government, you can bet its at least twice as bad as they are reporting. The MSM has lost all credibilty. Like Obama and his cronies, they lie sans conscience. They are, as Hoover put it, Masters of Deceit.

NEVER,NEVERtrust a "liberal"

Tom, the answer to this

Tom, the answer to this financial problem, of course, is to raise marginal tax rates on "the rich".  After all, why should someone like Bill Gates or Donald Trump or Steve Jobs have more money than anyone else in this country?  Sure, soak the fat cats.  That'll raise the revenue the government needs, and it will at last provide the social justice that the Commucrats have been attempting for so long.  Ignore the fact that after the Reagan tax cuts that tax revenues doubled.  Ignore the fact that each time "the rich" are singled out for more wealth confiscation that tax revenues fall.  Ignore all that.  The U.S. needs to lose its postition as the leader of the industrial world and assume a socially just position as just another third world country.  Right, Obamao? 

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

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