AP Blows The Deficit Reporting, Part II: The Invisible April Receipts Dive

Photo of Tom Blumer.

DownGraph0309In Part I (at NewsBusters; at BizzyBlog) of my coverage of Martin Crutsinger's Associated Press report about Uncle Sam's Monthly Treasury Statement and the Obama administration's deficit projections, I noted that the government "miraculously" shrunk the deficit through March, the first six months of its fiscal year, by $175 billion, by employing an "accounting change."

Even though this "accounting change," which does not report TARP disbursements as outlays because they are considered "investments," violates fundamental cash-flow reporting principles, Crutsinger gave the change an unskeptical treatment. He also failed to tell readers whether the administration used the old or new method in calculating its latest full-year deficit projection of $1.84 trillion. If Team Obama used the new method to determine it, the deficit under the old and more correct method will more than likely be over $2 trillion.

Crutsinger also failed to report the steep dive in federal receipts that took place in April, which is the government's highest month for collections, compared to last year's all-time record April haul, which I referred to as the "Supply-Side Stunner," and which Crutsinger and others also failed to report when it occurred last year (at NewsBusters; at BizzyBlog).

Here is how April 2009 collections compared to April of 2008:

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USreceiptsFinalDetail0409

(Sources: Monthly Statements - April 2009, April 2008; Daily Statements - April 30, 2009; April 30, 2008)

Here is all Crutsinger had to say about federal receipts in his report:

The government normally runs surpluses in April as Treasury's coffers swell with people paying their annual tax bills by the April 15 deadline. But the deficit is being driven higher by the billions of dollars being spent to rescue the financial system from its worst crisis since the 1930s and deal with the worst recession in decades.

The recession also has boosted government outlays for benefit programs like unemployment insurance and food stamps while slashing tax revenues.

..... Through the first seven months of this budget year, the government has collected $1.26 trillion in receipts, a drop of 18.9 percent from a year ago.

That's it. He was right there, and refused to tell us how much April's drop was.

By doing so, Crutsinger conveniently ignored the bigger receipts story. Here is how collections during the first seven months of fiscal 2009 compare to fiscal 2008:

USreceiptsThruApril09vApril08

It is at least as important for readers to know that April continued a steady and alarming downward trend in receipts that actually begin a bit less than a year ago as it is for them to know the fiscal year's overall result thus far.

April is supposed to be a strong month for receipts not only because of April 15 payments, but also because the first quarterly installment for individuals who pay estimated taxes is due on April 15 -- something Crutsinger "somehow" forgot to tell his readers. Those who make estimated payments are largely the self-employed and those who are required to report income from partnerships and corporations on their individual returns. Receipts from those individuals are on the third and fourth line items in the first chart above.

As you can see, they're drying up, as are collections from corporations, by far more than one would expect as a result of the 3.3% non-annualized contraction that has occurred during the past three quarters.

I attribute at least part of the decline to the much-discussed "going Galt" phenomenon, which really began last summer, as businesspeople, investors, and entrepreneurs began discerning the true nature of the administration that was the media favorite to gain power. "Going Galt" is yet another very real development that Crutsinger and the establishment media refuse to acknowledge.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Ring around the rosies

for some reasion every time i read about current politics that song runs though my head since in the end.  ALL FALL DOWN

Every generation needs to fight for thier freedom and i hate to say it since the 50's we have not really fought for it but instead started to take it for granted.

Going broke

Being hip, cool and going broke is still going broke.

Massive inflation ahead. We are heading into Zimbabwe territory.

OBAMA: INCREDIBLE LIAR or DUFUS?

 OBAMA: INCREDIBLE LIAR or DUFUS?

By Roger Runningen and Hans Nichols

May 14 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama, calling current deficit
spending “unsustainable,” warned of skyrocketing interest rates for
consumers if the U.S. continues to finance government by borrowing from
other countries.

“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said at a
town-hall meeting in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “We
have to pay interest on that debt, and that means we are mortgaging our
children’s future with more and more debt.”
Holders of U.S. debt will eventually “get tired” of buying it, causing
interest rates on everything from auto loans to home mortgages to
increase, Obama said. “It will have a dampening effect on our economy.”

The president pledged to work with Congress to shore up entitlement
programs such as Social Security and Medicare and said he was confident
that the House and Senate would pass health-care overhaul bills by
August.

“Most of what is driving us into debt is health care, so we have to drive down costs,” he said.

CRAWFISH NOTE: Let’s see, Obama pushed a trillion
dollar debt down our throats early on (no results yet either)…he knew
almost all of that was a loan. He has not opened his mouth to stop the
socialist party budget that triples America’s national debt AND NOW he
sees the light? NOW he sees economic law reality? He is going to “shore
up” Social Security NOW? Health care costs are to blame, ya gotta be
kidding? Hey, you and your socialist party spilt the milk!
Either this man is clueless or thinks we are. Both possibilities are dangerous to the voters and our country.

Doug Schexnayder, Ph.D. (theconservativecrawfish)

Tom. In comparison to recession of 2000-2002

Well, I'm just calling the whole period from March of 2000 to the fall of 2002 - a downturn.. but my point is:

Total receipts for April ($millions) ='s 

April 2000 = 295,151

April 2001 = 331,796

April 2002 = 237,426

Not exactly, but about the same amount of time into the burst of a bubble, and we see that the recipts were down 28.4% from 2001 to 2002. Interesting to see what happens next. In 2003, receipts continued to trickle down to $231,174. What will 2010 hold for us?

One factor which appears to be almost guaranteed - Spending will be going up.

Gary

Gary, the thing about 2001-2003 ....

.... is that the April 2002 drop was as bad as things ever got on a year-over-year basis. I think the % drops during most the rest of the fiscal year will probably be lower but still 20% or so, except September and possibly June, when the 2nd and 3rd estimates are due. Wittholdings are going 9% or so lower just about no matter what

I also think the 2002 drop was as bad as it was only because everyone who could cash in stock options in 2000 and even early 2001 did so and paid the related tax mostly on 4/15/2001, because it was obvious where their companies' stock prices were going, and it wasn't up. It would not surprise me to learn that this had a $30 billion or so impact.

Tom

I'd bet it was even more - but more to the point (the political point - although it really should not be political) - it was the fallout from what was inherited in 2001. The current is from what was inherited in 2009.

Both inheritances had to do with collapses of economic bubbles - one, the dot.com (dollar, etc); the other the housing bubble (credit bubble, etc).

While there are politically linked ideological economies at play, the bottom line to understanding the fallout from the crashes of the bubbles, is to put the focus on what caused the bubbles (and all who joined into - and all who celebrated) the bubble economies, themselves.

Oh - that would be a fine assignment for a national media, would it not?

(;~> gary

You're expecting them to stop transcribing, and ....

.... start working.

Good luck with that.

I maintain that the collapse might have been avoided, or at least avoided without creating monstrosities like TARP, had Pelosi, Obama, and Reid not scared the pants off of any observant businessperson, entrepreneur, and investor last summer with their stated determination to starve the economy of energy regardless of the consequences and O's promise to increase marginal rates on the productive by about 17% (12.4% Social Security and 4.6% in going back to the Clinton income tax rates). The observant shut down any plans they might have had to hire or expand, stopped replacing people, got tight-fisted with normal spending, and pulled back to the extent they could.

2010-2016

Today's projection is $5T in public debt. 

JDW

DAILY WAVE

When people fear their government there is tyranny.

When government fears the people there is liberty.

Toxic Assets

What's the return on these?

How can 'collections' go anywhere but down when spending increases by 20%? 

JDW

DAILY WAVE

When people fear their government there is tyranny.

When government fears the people there is liberty.

accounting, obama style

Just like Freddie & fannie were the onlt 2 publicly traded Fortune 500 companies not subject to the accounting rules of Sarbanes-Oxley, and look what we got for that. Comrade O, who never ran even a lemonade stand, his blow dealing was probably on a cash only basis, now thinks that misstating the debts and revenues are simply going to make them disappear.  You would have thought Ayers taught him something from their Annenberg Challenge experience back in Chicago.  Maybe he's just a slow learner.

LOL "I believe in

LOL

"I believe in American Exceptionalism, just like Brits believe in British Exceptionalism and Greeks believe in Greek Exceptionalism." - PreBO, 4/4/09

 They can't speak without a

 They can't speak without a teleprompter, so why in hell  should anyone think that they are able to do simple math?

Hey...thought I would add

Hey...thought I would add this here, seems the best place to do so...I found this by accident while searching for something else this afternoon.

Outrageous also

Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea. ~Andrew Breitbart