Press Clairvoyants: Opening Rise Means Markets Want Stimulus Passed

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Have you ever wondered how the geniuses who report business news know why the stock market opens or closes up or down on any given day -- especially when they venture into political explanations?

I received this e-mail from CNN just after the markets opened:

CNNheadlineOnStimulus020609

Gosh, those e-mail drafters at CNN are smart. Who knew that the markets want the stimulus package so bad?

Can't you hear, senators? The markets want their stimulus and they want it now!

Give me a break. There is no hard evidence of CNN's assertion. Others commenting on the opening, including CNN itself, aren't buying all of what the e-mail was selling. Here's what CNNMoney.com had to say at 9:42 a.m.:

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Financial stocks rallied Friday morning, pushing the broader market higher as investors accepted massive January job losses, and tried to look ahead to the government's stimulus plan and new version of the bank bailout.

That's in the neighborhood, but still far from "rais(ing) hopes that stimulus will pass quickly."

But RTT News doesn't even mention the stimulus at all in its commentary on the first half-hour of trading:

Major Averages Posting Strong Gains In Early trading

(RTTNews) - After seeing some initial strength, stocks have continued to perform well over the course of the first half-hour of trading on Friday. The major averages have all moved firmly into positive territory, adding to the gains posted in the previous session.

With traders expressing optimism ahead of a speech from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Monday, banking stocks are turning in some of the best performances. Most other sectors are also moving higher, with steel, semiconductor, and real estate stocks posting notable gains.

This didn't stop other wire services from engaging in de facto stimulus package lobbying. Although this Reuters report ahead of the opening didn't mention the stimulus package, this one shortly after the opening did. The Associated Press's Madlyn Read wrote just before the opening that "Wall Street was set for a moderately higher open Friday as investors hung their hopes on the government's stimulus plan even as they awaited another bleak jobs report."

Zheesh. It's just as likely that investors know how little real stimulus is in the bill, and have already discounted its relevance, whether it passes or fails. It may also be that the markets have had a bad few weeks recently as the reality of what Congress and President Obama are on the verge of doing to the economy has set in.

The overriding point is that the business press is pretending to know something concerning which it really has no idea. For them, that's business as usual.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Stocks

I bet the market is doing well because of the Gallup pole indictating that the people think the stimulas package is all pork and don't want it in its current form.

agree completely, pha pha!

i think it doesn't hurt a bit, either, that lindsey graham stood up yesterday and finally called a spade a spade.  maybe, just maybe the markets are responding to the idea that the "stimulus" package may not pass!!

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle." Edmund Burke

I agree completely. It was blocked in the Senate yesterday

the market pops up.  The good news seems to be what is actually happening, i.e. it is NOT sailing through the Senate.

DESPITE the "Disaster

DESPITE the "Disaster Plan", it is the banking plan set for monday disclosure,. What idiots at CCCN,  ny times, krugman and the ignorant media

Well if they go off that

Well if they go off that logic...why is it when Obama opens his mouth the Dow goes down? 

 

www.theholyrosary.org

"There is no problem, I tell you, no matter how difficult it is, that we can not resolve by the prayer of the Holy Rosary." -Sister Lucia

Romer on FBN

What a socialist propagandist! 

"I ask, Sir, what is the militia? It is the whole people. To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them."
George Mason

Bolton/KEYES 2012 

The stink of rotting pork

Stocks also rallied Thursday, and I could have said that it was because the porkulus bill effort was collapsing and the conservative consensus in Congress was that the bill stunk to high heaven.

But when the stinker passes as it eventually will, it will pass with one or two RINO votes, and be hailed as a bi-partisan bill because of those one or two RINOs.The Fair Ladies of Maine are the primary suspects as usual.

Tom. It was the rumor of suspending "Mark to Market"

Tom. They should know, it was the rumor of suspending "Mark to Market" that fueled the rally - not the stimulus. CNN is well aware of what the rumors are on the trading floor of the NY Stock Exchange. And they can always ask the old voice of experience himself, Art Cashin of UBS. This (excerpts) is from "Cashin's Comments," this morning - about the action yesterday (my bold):

Wall Street didn't actually catch fire Thursday but the action clearly heated up.

Mark This, And Mark It Well - The stock market began the day on a rather sour note yesterday. The surge in Initial Unemployment Claims set the bulls back on their heels and traders braced for a possible test of the lows.

The early selling persisted through 10:30 and Bank of America shares dipped below $4 per share. Then, suddenly, the mood began to shift. Rumors began to circulate that the government was thinking about suspending "mark to market". If true that might ease some or much of the pressure on banks.

The rumor was attributed to some remarks made by Senator Dodd on Wednesday evening. The rumor lit a fire under the financials. Bank of America shares turned up and began to move smartly higher in what looked like some panicky short covering.

The possible suspension of mark to market reminded veteran traders of the period back in the late 1970s and early 1980s when much of South America defaulted. U.S. banks had lent heavily to the nations of South America. Walter Wriston, the highly influential chairman of Citibank, had famously said - "countries don't go bust".

When they did go bust, Citi and every other major U.S. bank was left with paper of very little value. Many people at the time felt the entire U.S. banking system was insolvent. The regulatory authorities at the time gave the bankers a "pass" on mark to market, allowing some banks to carry at cost. Crisis was avoided and after several years everything worked out. That history is the reason some folks call for a suspension of mark to market.

[..]

Some folks claimed the rally was caused by hopes for quick passage of the "stimulus package". The pronounced leadership of the financials in the rally cast doubt on that thesis. Additionally, traders have strong doubts about how stimulating this stimulus package will be. Many floor types see it long on social engineering and short on jobs. Further, most of the package doesn't kick in until well past the end of 2009. They also wonder why the President would risk squandering his enormous political capital pushing a bill that is seen by many as flawed.

Politics aside, the rally ate through much of the resistance ...

The, 'some folks claimed the rally was caused by hopes for quick passage of the "stimulus package" ' comment by Cashin, is clearly a remark intended to cast doubt on those claims (by the media, Democrats and pundits).

 There you go - and perhaps a bit of timely investing advice was had by all.. (;~> gary

Very good catch

I updated at my place for how CNN has doubled down, and how the home page has a Fortune link that contradicts the flash headline's belief that the markets will benefit from the stimulus.

Tom.. and the rally continued today... why?

Tom.. and the rally continued today... why? For those reading here that might think my note about yesterday's action being unrelated to the continuation today of the rally -- I'll note again:

Politics aside, the rally ate through much of the resistance ...

.. and therefore, it still had legs and a bit of room to run within.

...and I've just been

...and I've just been chuckling since seeing the market this morning after Fearless Leader Reid said on the Senate floor late afternoon yesterday that he doesn't want to think about how Wall Street and the rest of the world are going to be reacting if we don't get this passed tonight...blah blah blah....

I also heard DiFi say on the floor this morning that she is reserving her right to vote against this bill as it is so far....she's not happy that there isn't more job creation.

Oh the Gang of 18 will fix it all up....you just wait....after-all, it's a bi-partisan bunch of whiz-bangs...15 dems, 3 repubs.

bt

Actually... Investors will have an instinctive opportunistic reaction to a titanic $900 billion "emergency spending pork bills" like this. While the bill may not do much for the economy, i.e., no economic rally, especially in the short term, Wall Street investors may find a few good investment opportunities in it. A stock market rally does not necessary equate to an economic rally, on the other hand. In fact, if they do pass it, when Reid spouts off and says, "see," the first question to him should be, "so - there you go - fueling a little greed on Wall Street, once again." That being said, the rally yesterday and the follow-up today is not because the bill, or some version of it, may pass. (:~> gary

 

Gary... I agree.

Gary...

I agree.

bt

well, I knew that already. ha!  gary

While the suspension of

While the suspension of "mark to market" may have contributed to the uptick in the market today, it can also be said that it was due to a massive cover of short sales because of the possible positive impact of the banking announcement due Monday by "Turbo Tax" Timmy, our new Treasury Secretary.  Nobody wanted to be holding short positions if the result of the banking announcement sent the markets higher. 

Also, since the beginning of the year, the markets have tanked nearly reaching the lows of 20 November 2008.  Markets don't go straight up or down.  Nevertheless, the long term and medium term trends in the market are down while there may be underway a reversal of the down trend on a short term basis.  

Recession Cure

1. All politicians in DC take an 8 week+ vacation w/o voting porkulus into law. Do no harm. Do nothing. 2. The MSM stop harping on the recession, chill.

Look what has happened to the car industry. Because their problems were so over talked about in the MSM the result was a terrible loss in sales. It was argued that if the car companies were not bailed out, the consumer would not buy cars fearing the car companies would go out of business and warranties would be meaningless. But the car bailout was so over talked about in the MSM, the thing that happened was what was feared. People are not buying cars because they fear the car companies even with the bailout will go out of business, and add to that the public is also scared that they will lose their jobs because of the incessant depression talk in the MSM.

The MSM got the recession it wanted to help elect the president they wanted. Shouldn’t they be happy and stop the doom and gloom talk? They are making the economic slowdown slower and making their guy, the messiah, look bad.

Funny when the market tanked

Funny when the market tanked on Inauguration Day, the media went all out to claim that Obama had nothing to do with it, now the market goes up and Obama has everything to do with it. I'm so glad that there's no opinion/bias in these reportages, it might otherwise have made me thought that the reporters were left wing idiots pushing a party line.

How about this:

How about this:

Abolish ALL Federal taxes for 1 year. No death taxes. Nothing but
perhaps state taxes. Instead of spending almost 1 TRILLION dollars, why
not allow "We the People" to put that money back into the economy as we
see fit? The reason this won't happen? Pork. The arrogance of them to
say they know how to spend your money better then you do.

Another thing,

With all the $$$$ going to automobile companies, why don't "We the
People" get a deal for US thrown in? How about we get a no interest
loan on these cars at a reduced price? No scam, fine print stuff, just
a really good deal that would have us rethinking buying a import? As it
is, we basically pay their inflated salaries to keep them in the black
and we get nothing in return on OUR investment! Why doesn't someone use
some common sense and make this work for "We the People", the car
companies and other faltering businesses?

When I got an allowance as a kid, I had to work for it. My father
knew that just throwing money at me wouldn't accomplish anything. It
was give and take. It was beneficial to both. I raked the yard, I took
the trash out, I painted the house. He didn't have to exhaust himself
doing so and I was eager for the money.

Now we have the mentality of throwing wads of cash to people who
have only their own interest at heart. I see no love thrown back to us
at all. I see no hint of anyone suggesting that the taxpayers, being
the work horses here, get anything in return.

Moratorium on taxes.

Help us get a good deal on an American car. Heck, since Obama wants
us to go green so badly, wwhy not an especially good deal on a hybrid?

I see ZERO creative thought in Washington. I see them going to
Virginia to fawn over themselves. Excuse me but, "We the People" have
provided them with more than adequate headquarters in DC. Why the need
to go somewhere else ON OUR DIME?

Good grief. The ineptness is overwhelming and we apparently are willing to tolerate it.

→ The Market loves rumors

"Drag a hundred-dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you'll find." - James Carville

What makes CNN think Wall Street is any different?

Somebody shouts "Free money!" and there's a whole lotta gimme goin' on.

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