Gallup's New 'Likely Voter' Category: Likely to Find More Obama Voters

Gallup's New 'Likely Voter' Category: Likely to Find More Obama Voters

By Tom Blumer (Bio | Archive)
October 16, 2008 - 13:13 ET

Just in time for the final weeks of the presidential election campaign, Gallup has added a nuance to its polling presentations.

Instead of merely presenting "registered" and "likely" voters, the polling firm has decided to present a third category: an "expanded" version of likely voters. This third category is in addition to its "traditional" likely-voter presentation.

My look at Gallup's October 12-14 results indicates that the "expanded" version is indeed likely -- likely to find Obama voters, and that's about it.

First, here's the organization's explanation of the new category:

GallupLVexpandedExplained1008

Here is the October 12-14 presentation of the three categories:

GallupPollNumbersOct12to14MvO

To get to the new "expanded" version from the original, more time-tested "traditional" result, here is roughly what the breakdown between Obama, McCain, and others has to be (the "expanded" column was decreased by 0.5% each for McCain and Obama so that the total percentages would add up to 100%):

GallupLVmethodsDiffBreakdowns1008

Yeah, right. 86% - 9% of the 159 new "expanded" likely voters go to Obama. How convenient.

This doesn't even pass the stench test, let alone the smell test.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

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HA!

October 16, 2008 - 13:26 ET by GOPG8R

Wow. This is a first. Now polling firms will be taking into account voters who just might vote? Why? So the media has better numbers for Obama to beat us over the head with it?

It will be interesting to see if the youth vote actually turns out this year.

YEP!

October 16, 2008 - 13:38 ET by NorthCoaster

Another way found to skew the polling data! Find enough segments of the population for him and the Devil could get into Heaven!

This is the REAL reason for ACORN!

October 16, 2008 - 15:37 ET by Joe C.

This is the REAL reason that ACORN is committing registration fraud.
NOT for vote fraud, which is much tougher - although if that occurred
too, it would just be gravy to them - it’s in order to increase the
registration differential to affect polling. As we are seeing with the
polls with a party identity differential among “likely” voters of 6, 8,
15%, skews the polls to inflate Dem numbers to project an air of
inevitability in order to sway the disengaged middle who only want to
vote for “the winner.”

Here’s all you need to know: Since 1988, the largest party ID
differential for any election - that includes 2 Clinton wins, the Rep
takeover in ‘94, the Dem takeover in ‘06 - has been Dem +4 in ‘96.

For example, The Ohio Poll - the most accurate polling service in
Ohio - which has projected Election Day winners in 34 of 34 statewide
contests polled since ‘94 has McCain +2 in Ohio using their usual
model. All other polling services give Obama a lead anywhere from +2 to
+5 per RCP. I’ll believe The Ohio Poll - based on track record - which
suggests that the other polls are 4-7 off to Obama’s favor, probably
due to the reason I outlined above.

Every election, Dems think THIS will be the year that all those
winos, homeless, and college students are going to vote, and it hasn’t
happened yet. Some day it may (possibly ‘08), but I have no reason to
believe that this will be the year. Remember, all those newly
registered voters were unregistered for a reason - THEY DON’T VOTE! I
would assume any other national poll with a Dem advantage >4 is
likely suspect, and needs to be adjusted at the point of consumption.

Do you think Gallup would

October 16, 2008 - 13:58 ET by fitzfong

Do you think Gallup would be introducing this new polling contortion if it favored McLame? I don't think so...

"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it." -Ronald Reagan

fitzfong.blogspot.com

We already know ACORN and

October 16, 2008 - 14:25 ET by Right2thePoint

We already know ACORN and similar groups are trying to shove through a bunch of bogus registrations.

Now take into account all those that have slipped through the cracks since they have started doing registrations years ago and you will likely see a whole lot of bogus Dem voter registrations.

This skews the models the poll companies use to determine how many dems to sample in their surveys.

Thus you now have a built in false bias of a couple of points for the Dems even if the polls are sampled exactly on the reported voter registration. Any oversampling of Dems just skews it even more.

How many times in the last

October 16, 2008 - 15:42 ET by ConservativeRex

How many times in the last six presidential elections has the Republican nominee actually lead in the polls leading up to the actual elections? Less then a hand full. You'd think by reading the polls all America ever elects is democrats as president. Pollsters call during the daytime mostly (read unemployed, sick, lame or lazy), large urban areas (refer to the latter), or universities (I wonder who pre-dominates there). Productive folks work during daylight hours, hell, real productive folks work at night as well. People even lie their butts off on exit polling.

But do you think we can get these idiot politicians to ignore polls? Let Obami keep thinking he's in the lead. That way it'll be a helluva surprise to him when he loses in November. And if that rascal wins in November, it will be us who will be in for a screwing. Polls be damned.

Thank You, Tom

October 16, 2008 - 17:06 ET by JoelCT

Thank you, Tom, for keeping the numbers honest. I just can't trust Gallup or Zogby any more. They just seem to be working the numbers to produce a result, rather than just showing the numbers AS a result.

The Liberals are going to really cry, and hard, on November 5th. All of this lying is going to convince them of a win, and it is going to hurt that much worse when they lose.

They're trying to suppress

October 16, 2008 - 17:08 ET by fitzfong

They're trying to suppress turnout by making the odds against McCain look insurmountable. Hopefully their scam won't work.

"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it." -Ronald Reagan

fitzfong.blogspot.com

ACORN !!!!!!

October 16, 2008 - 18:30 ET by MrShy

It's starting to sprout up on several major news sites now, like AOL, and this one at MSNBC:

http://www.msnbc.msn...

Let's hope this builds steam to a point that the MSM can't continue to shove it under the rug.... and in the process, the unavoidable and very clear ties to the Dems and Obama will reveal themselves.

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