Venezuela Squeezed by Lower Output, Lower Prices; Only UK Paper Seems to Care

Photo of Tom Blumer.

Matt Drudge learned long ago that jumping across the pond in the late evening and perusing the British press is a way to get a head start on the news, and in some cases to get news that the American press is ignoring.

The situation with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela is an example of the latter.

If it happens, call it The Caracas Crackup -- The UK Telegraph is reporting that the inevitable inefficiences of a state-run enterprise and falling oil prices appear to have the potential to do serious damage to Venezuela's economy:

Venezuela's daily oil production has fallen by a quarter since President Hugo Chavez won power, depriving his "Bolivarian Revolution" of much of the benefit of the global boom in oil prices.

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To win allies and forge an anti-American front, Mr Chavez sells oil to friendly countries at low prices. Ironically, the only big customer buying Venezuelan oil at the full market price is the United States, which the president routinely denounces as the "Empire".

..... The state oil company, PDVSA, produced 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998, the year before Mr Chavez won the presidency. After a decade of rising corruption and inefficiency, daily output has now fallen to 2.4 million barrels, according to OPEC figures. About half of this oil is now delivered at a discount to Mr Chavez's friends around Latin America. The 18 nations in his "Petrocaribe" club, founded in 2005, pay Venezuela only 30 per cent of the market price within 90 days, with rest in installments spread over 25 years.

The other half - 1.2 million barrels per day - goes to America, Venezuela's only genuinely paying customer.

It doesn't take a math genius to calculate that the US is providing Chavez about 75% of his oil-related cash flow. Venezuela's take from the US's 50% of the pie at full price is over three times what it gets from the other 50%, for which it only receives 30% up front.

It's also not difficult to see that, at a current price of about $80 a barrel, the country's 800,000 barrel a day decrease in output is costing it $64 million daily, or over $23 billion a year. This is a staggering sum in a country whose gross domestic product, according to this quick Google Search on "GDP of Venezuela," is $186 billion.

A serious effort to revive offshore drilling in the US could greatly add to Venezuela's misery if oil prices don't head back up, and soon. Even if the country could find substitute buyers at its non-US terms, a 50% reduction in US imports from Venezuela would lead to a dangerous revenue drop of over 25%.

This is all the more reason to drill offshore and elsewhere, even before considering the many billions of dollars that would come in annually to cash-strapped Uncle Sam and the state from royalties on production.

The potential damage to Chavez may be a heretofore overlooked reason why the opposition to US offshore drilling among many Democrats is so fierce.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Maybe Chavez could ask his

Maybe Chavez could ask his buddy William Ayers how to fix this little problem. No kidding, Ayers and Chavez are close. And Ayers is close to a certain someone running for the White House. Hint-hint. Part of the Ayers connection to Chavez is here...Why Obama Scares The Crap Out Of Me 

 

 

Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/  

 

Ahh, Hugo Chavez from

Ahh, Hugo Chavez from Venezuela. One of obama's associations from obama's college years.

Barack Obama has his own AXIS OF EVIL!!!!!!!!!!!

The potential damage to

The potential damage to Chavez may be a heretofore overlooked reason why the opposition to US offshore drilling among many Democrats is so fierce.

Yep, got that all in a nutshell perfectly.

 

"America isn't the problem...America is the solution." ~ Rush Limbaugh

It has been long known.

   It has been long known that low oil prices puts a damper on our enemies in the middle east and now Venezuela.

   They do not have the money to give to the terrorist proxy groups like Al Queda, Hamas, and Hezbolla. They have less money to placate the populations at home, and as a result, their people turn more of their anger back on their own governments instead of the Big Satan, Little Satan, and teh Micro Satan Rove-Cheney-JWF cabal.

Sincerely,

a Veteran of a 1000 psychic wars.

All the more reason the

All the more reason the United States should do as much as possible to become energy independant. Every dollar we put into our country is one less dollar to a blow-hard like Chavez.  It would be like us giving him one big finger as his economy falls to pieces and he scrambles to placate the masses.

Ironic that in the debates

Ironic that in the debates Obama mentioned Iran and by inference Venezuela as the reason why the US should move totally to alternative energy as a means to deny them the finances to harm the US.  Obama has the right idea to combat sponsors of terrorism however, with naively the wrong means.  Domestic Drilling would have an immediate impact on both these two sponsors of terrorism and possibly destabilize their governments causing regime change. Even the MSM are concerned their favorite dictatorships will fall due to low oil prices. Alternative energy is simply too costly to achieve and quite frankly requires the price of oil to go above $200/barrel to make it cost effective. For those who dispute that I submit look around you, if alternative energy was cost effective then why hasn't it subplanted conventional energy sources? No amount of subsidy will ever make alternative energy cost effective since the money for the subsidy has to come from somewhere thus depriving someone of the money. The unintended consequence of pushing alternative energy at such a price is these two countries would be flooding the world with well armed terrorists.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

So...

all we'd have to do is ban imports from there for awhile and watch his government implode?

Sounds like fun.

Actually, a targeted ban of

Actually, a targeted ban of Venezuelan oil imports during this period of reduced oil consumption could easily be done if the Bush Administration has the gumption to do so.  We could make up any difference from Mexico or Canada if necessary.  Taking down one dictator and sponsor of terrorism without having to fire a shot would send a strong signal to Iran that they have a weakness that can be exploited if they continue with their nuclear ambitions. It's a twofer.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

Not a bad idea, but first we would

need to wean people like Al Gore off their SUVs and Lincoln Town cars.

http://www.youtube.c...

Jeesh. Oil's still around

Jeesh. Oil's still around $80 a barrel and that little piglet Chavez is in financial trouble? Maybe if his country had a real economy he wouldn't already be in hot water. Let's see, 30% down and pay the rest off over 25 years? So he's letting his buddies mortgage their oil purchases. If any of those countries ever get pro-US governments in power, Chavez could end up with a lot of defaulted debt. Gee, wouldn't that be a shame?

Analysts: "Venezuela needs

Analysts: "Venezuela needs that price of oil exceeds USD 90 to pay expenses"

http://english.eluniversal.com/2008/10/14/en_eco_esp_analysts:-venezuela_14A2068487.shtml

Here is the article they are referring to:

Oil can fall to $50-$60 if credit stays tight

http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/article.aspx?id=6504

Oh yes, it's time for Hugo Chavez to go and we intend to help him along.  Drill, baby, Drill.

 

 Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.

Oil now less than

Oil now less than $75/barrel: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_X8

Gasoline averaged around $3.15/gal nationally last week, another 65 cent drop should get the economic juices flowing.  http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mg_rt_usw.htm

Demand figures should be updated shortly: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html#demand If we see a continuing drop for 10/6 you can count on prices falling further.

T minus $5/barrel to economy restart.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.