In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:
- Whip up a tasty, representative poll after the Republican Convention.
- Three weeks later, make the same dish, but this time adjust the mix of ingredients by radically oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans, thereby creating a false illusion of momentum in the campaign of Barack Obama, and of decline in John McCain's.
- Hope people don't notice the changes in the recipe.
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look suspicious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).
The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.
Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:
"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.
"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.
"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.
Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:
After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, substituting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters
Editor at Large
Comments Policy
I guess the push in the
October 2, 2008 - 05:40 ET by motherbeltI guess the push in the last month is to whip people up to "get on board with the winner!"
Maybe they should weight it the other way, to account for the "Bradley effect."
My friend just told me last night that she heard Obama is now leading in PA, FL and OH....any info on that?
I've seen that also
October 2, 2008 - 07:12 ET by IgnatzJFahrquarI've seen that also regarding those battleground states, but I figure it's poll cookin' time.
I'm in Ohio and I'm seeing the same thing that happened 4 years ago. Driving through rural counties all I see are McC/P signs. Hell, there was a story about some Ohio farmer have a "crop circle" cut into the likeness of Palin. Yes, a bit over the top but that's a little more effort to show support than just throwing a sign out front.
Remember how in '04 "they" were complaining about voter fraud in Ohio because early polls showed Kerry with a big lead then Bush came on late? Well, it takes a tad longer for the rural vote to come in plus, not too many media types floating around Hocking County in Southeast Ohio.
"All generalizations are false, including this one.” Mark Twain
Hello, Hocking County!
October 2, 2008 - 08:44 ET by HockeyKidHello, Hocking County! Some of my people are from Licking and Monroe, among other OH counties.
Even in Northern VA, the most liberal part of the state, I'm seeing mostly McCain/Palin signage. I hope AP keeps cooking their books right up to election day. It'll make the landslide that much more fun.
Ignatz, I've seen this too.
October 2, 2008 - 16:53 ET by NorthCoasterUp in the rural areas of Erie county the signs are 10 McCain/ Palin to 1 Obama., Even though many of the local signs are balanced 50-50 Republican-Democrat.
It's going to be a wilder ride than any at Cedar Point on the night of the election!
While not in a battleground
October 2, 2008 - 21:41 ET by FishFace222While not in a battleground state, (Obama's campaign pulled out of ND--of course it was because of racism) Fargo, ND seems to have an overabundance of Obama-Biden signs but we are on the border of MN so they are probably libs that live on the ND side to avoid paying higher taxes.
I just heard Va. also.
October 2, 2008 - 07:14 ET by SeashellI just heard Va. also.
Polls
October 2, 2008 - 05:50 ET by TexndocI saw on another site the LA Times poll of Ohio the day before the election last season: Kerry 50, Bush 44, margin or error 4. Slam dunk! I'm sick of polls - but if Conservatives are nervous, good for the bias because it drives us. "Broken Glass!" is a phrase I see online from our side, meaning they will crawl over it to prevent this country becoming socialist.
Seems to me the other camp, with the creepy "Children of the Corn" singing video on YouTube, and the latest "celebrity" Leo DiCaprio-led ad, is eating itself nicely from within. Did you stupid non-celebrity Americans know you have to register to vote?
The Democrats will tie this
October 2, 2008 - 05:51 ET by USA4freedomThe Democrats will tie this into the standard line if we win: they stole the election! Look at the polls, then they will do the exit polls, that will be extremely useful because people will want to look “not racist” and vote for the black guy.. and tell the pollster.
That way they can de-legitimize Mc Cain.
While back on the ranch.. ACORN is going to town with our money to cheat us..
If they do, we can look for race riots, and all of it will be their fault.
I feel like we are bailing with a sieve.
Ronald Reagan, 1962: I did not leave the Democratic party, the party left me.
Insert: your name, 2008, and the Republican party.
I agree. If Obama loses,
October 2, 2008 - 10:50 ET by LilyPearlI agree. If Obama loses, there will be race riots.
Dammit Folks
October 2, 2008 - 06:13 ET by kilrodIf the following is true, and their are reports supporting this overall, Mc should be able to kaatn with this if he will just do it.(this came in an e-mail, if you agree copy, paste and send it on.) He will have to do it with campaign adds because we know dam well the polo caca msm aint gonna report it. I've had a bellyfull of this crap. I am Praying Palin knocks a grand slam tonight.
kilrod
Subject: Three Men Who Brought Down Wall Street
Wonder why we don't hear this stuff in the news during this very
important time! Get this around the country...be knowledgeable when you
go to vote. Doesn't matter if you are a Republican or Democrat... right
is right, wrong is wrong!!! This is a travesty!! This is OUR country!
When are we, the hard working people of this great country, going to be
put first?? Have the courage to Speak Up and Speak Out, or don't
complain when it is too late! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Here is a quick look into 3 former Fannie Mae executives who have
brought down Wall Street.
~Franklin Raines was a Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Fannie
Mae. Raines was forced to retire from his position with Fannie Mae
when auditing discovered severe irregulaties in Fannie Mae's accounting
activities. At the time of his departure The Wall Street Journal noted ,
" Raines, who long defended the company's accounting despite mounting
evidence that it wasn't proper, issued a statement late Tuesday
conceding that "mistakes were made" and saying he would assume
responsibility as he had earlier promised. News reports indicate the
company was under growing pressure from regulators to shake up its
management in the wake of findings that the company's books ran afoul of
generally accepted accounting principles for four years." Fannie Mae
had to reduce its surplus by $9 billion.
Raines left with a "golden parachute valued at $240 Million in benefits.
The Government filed suit against Raines when the depth of the
accounting scandal became clear.
http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/18/fannie-charges/
The Government noted, "The 101 charges reveal how the individuals improperly
manipulated earnings to maximize their bonuses, while knowingly
neglecting accounting systems and internal controls, misapplying over
twenty accounting principles and misleading the regulator and the
public. The Notice explains how they submitted six years of misleading
and inaccurate accounting statements and inaccurate capital reports that
enabled them to grow Fannie Mae in an unsafe and unsound manner."
These charges were made in 2006. The Court ordered Raines to return $50
Million Dollars he received in bonuses based on the miss-stated Fannie
Mae profits.
~Tim Howard - Was the Chief Financial Officer of Fannie Mae. Howard
"was a strong internal proponent of using accounting strategies that
would ensure a "stable pattern of earnings" at Fannie. In everyday
English - he was cooking the books. The Government investigation
determined that, "Chief Financial Officer, Tim Howard, failed to provide
adequate oversight to key control and reporting functions within Fannie
Mae,"
On June 16, 2006, Rep. Richard Baker, R-La., asked the Justice
Department to investigate his allegations that two former Fannie Mae
executives lied to Congress in October 2004 when they denied
manipulating the mortgage-finance giant's income statement to achieve
management pay bonuses. Investigations by federal regulators and the
company's board of directors since concluded that management did
manipulate 1998 earnings to trigger bonuses. Raines and Howard resigned
under pressure in late 2004.
Howard's Golden Parachute was estimated at $20 Million!
~Jim Johnson - A former executive at Lehman Brothers and who was later
forced from his position as Fannie Mae CEO. A look at the Office of
Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's May 2006 report on mismanagement
and corruption inside Fannie Mae, and you'll see some interesting things
about Johnson. Investigators found that Fannie Mae had hidden a
substantial amount of Johnson's 1998 compensation from the public,
reporting that it was between $6 million and $7 million when it fact it
was $21 million." Johnson is currently under investigation for taking
illegal loans from Countrywide while serving as CEO of Fannie Mae.
Johnson's Golden Parachute was estimated at $28 Million.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
FRANKLIN RAINES? Raines works for the Obama Campaign as Chief Economic
Advisor TIM HOWARD? Howard is also a Chief Economic Advisor to Obama
JIM JOHNSON? Johnson hired as a Senior Obama Finance Advisor and was
selected to run Obama's Vice Presidential Search Committee
IF OBAMA PLANS ON CLEANING UP THE MESS - HIS ADVISORS HAVE THE EXPERTISE
- THEY MADE THE MESS IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Would you trust the men who tore Wall Street down to build the New Wall Street ?
Remember, only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you, Jesus Christ and the American Soldier
I expect...
October 2, 2008 - 06:26 ET by TexndocI expect McCain to bring this up in a debate, not only ads. Palin as well, but mainly McCain. As Rush said, it's time for McCain to NAME NAMES. Quit trying to always reach across the aisle, drawing back a nub every time.
McCain needs to take the gloves off
October 2, 2008 - 06:44 ET by sewcattyMcCain MUST start naming names. Just as Rush stated, the MSM and dems have started to blame McCain for the initial failure of the bailout bill. He needs to hit the Mae/Mac stuff hard. He can win this election, even with the overwhelming media bias, if he would take the gloves off.
I Agree
October 2, 2008 - 07:24 ET by IgnatzJFahrquarThe defense the Dims use is that "There will be time, later on, to find out the root cause. Now is not the time to point fingers!"
Yes it is the time. It shows a pattern of incompetence in the Dim Party and a lack of judgement on B Hussein's part to have these morons advising him. A pretty simple attack plan for McC. Just keep hammering at this point.
It was funny to watch Colmes two nights ago when they were showing that Youtube video that compiles all the Dim crooks and their Fanny/Freddy statements about "There is nothing wrong". He could bearly make any rebuttal.
Get that baby playing 24/7
"All generalizations are false, including this one.” Mark Twain
Thanks for clearing it up.
October 2, 2008 - 07:08 ET by dmntd1Thanks for clearing it up. The MSM keeps beating the drum of how (R)'s are getting tired of Gov Palin, and I'm not seeing it anywhere. I live in Illinois, so how we vote won't matter too much, but the people I meet are still energized FOR Gov Palin.
However the recent vote on the Buyout/Bailout bill depresses me. I'm going to have to reconcile voting for Sen McCain in spite of him voting for the most expensive POS in history.
"Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy." - Winston Churchill
Typical Liberal MO
October 2, 2008 - 07:23 ET by Tom PaineThis is the typical liberal MO.
First you juice the polls to create a false bandwagon effect.
Then you strategically place your operatives in the exit poll line to "confirm" the trend.
Reality sets in and you lose.
You do all you can to discredit the results of the election, make claims of voting machine tampering, and push for legislation calling for automatic recounts when the results don't match the polling data.
However they stil can't explain why the voting machines worked just perfectly in the 2006 election.
I've known
October 2, 2008 - 17:01 ET by NorthCoasterI've known a few folks who claimed to tell exit polsters the wrong thing just to mess with them. They think it's a great joke to have the polling skewed away from the real vote. Some have even said that they told the polster wrong so they wouldn't get hasseled as they left.
The MSM is clearly trying to skew the election result
October 2, 2008 - 07:56 ET by c5thenTheir problem is that they are doing it on a basis of assuming that Americans are both stupid and herd animals who will follow the group. They are clearly trying to make it seem that the herd is heading in one particular direction in the hope of fooling enough sheeple to make it a self fulfilling prophesy.
On the other hand, what we may find (and I'm hoping for this) is that Americans are smarter and more independant than that and the results on Nov 5 may confuse and flaberghast the media, similar to the 2000 election where all their pre-election day polls and the exit polls showed that Al Gore should win handily, yet the results were totally different.
They seem to forget that they are cooking the polls and actually start to believe them causing reality to smack them in the back of the head sometimes.
The vast majority of main
October 2, 2008 - 08:10 ET by nadadhimmiThe vast majority of main stream media are not even making believe they are unbiased anymore. I find it highly appropriate that Stalinist tactics should be used to support "The Ones'" cult of personality. I'm old enough to remember the Weatherman from the 60's. they were a murderous, communist, subversive faction of the Students for a Democratic Society. The thought of Bill Ayers, terrorist bomber of the Pentagon and Capital Building being the mentor of the POTUS indicates a silent coup has been perpetrated by the Radicals. We are headed for Civil War in this country.
Also independents.
October 2, 2008 - 08:13 ET by danboNot only did they decrease the number of republicans and conservatives. They also decreased the number of independents.
Obama should win; if only democrats vote.
There are three ways to lie. A falsehood. Not telling all the truth. And statistics.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
I believe the AOL Straw Poll
October 2, 2008 - 08:30 ET by SickofLibsI believe the AOL Straw Poll is a much more believable barometer. Latest one, 9/25 - 10/2 with 425,000 votes, has McCain up 60-40, and ahead in every state. That is a HUGE sample compared to these other 'professional' polls. There's no leaners, no likelys, no Dems or Repubs; just who will you vote for, period.
Oh, how I would love to see
October 2, 2008 - 08:52 ET by HockeyKidOh, how I would love to see a Mondale-like defeat handed to 0bama. Then we'd never have to listen to his (r@? ever again.
I have been watching this
October 2, 2008 - 10:27 ET by LilyPearlI have been watching this "swing" toward Obama and I have been a little suspicious. I just don't trust the polls. The AP thinks we are stupid (and some people are), but I think this is a little too much of a swing. What the AP forgets is that Nixon was supposed to lose and Reagan was supposed to lose to Carter, and it didn't happen. It would tickle me pink just to see McCain win, but I would faint from pure joy if he won in a landslide.
Why do journalists advocate socialism?
October 2, 2008 - 17:18 ET by ZuccoZoid"Journalism" and "reporting" as we know them are dead entities, as are the people involved: Gravitas! They simply take the DNC talking points and report them as "news" as they do with push-polling, photo fabrications and selective editing to demoralize the public.
But why do they want Socialism above all else? Granted, the 20th century Democrat party is founded and funded by the Mafia, from Al Capone to Joe Kennedy. Are they all "made men"? Are they all in the tank for the next big Socialist because they're all "made" journalists, with a more important oath? Why else would they all apparently align not only with Hussein but his allies in Syria, Iran, Somalia, Hamas - ALL openly and publicly lobbying for Hussein!
Why do journalists advocate socialism?
October 2, 2008 - 17:28 ET by ZuccoZoid"Journalism" and "reporting" as we know them are dead entities, as are the people involved: Gravitas! They simply take the DNC talking points and report them as "news" as they do with push-polling, photo fabrications and selective editing to demoralize the public.
But why do they want Socialism above all else? Granted, the 20th century Democrat party is founded and funded by the Mafia, from Al Capone to Joe Kennedy. Are they all "made men"? Are they all in the tank for the next big Socialist because they're all "made" journalists, with a more important oath? Why else would they all apparently align not only with Hussein but his allies in Syria, Iran, Somalia, Hamas - ALL openly and publicly lobbying for Hussein!
the inevitable?
October 2, 2008 - 17:44 ET by ZuccoZoidNot too long ago (in a political galaxy far far away) it was Hillary Clinton being pitched and promoted as the Inevitable: SHE would be POTUS, don't bother voting, it's a done deal - until the MSM decided Racism was a better deal. The obvious point here is the MSM ALWAYS PROMOTES THE DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE, no matter who that may be. If OJ Simpson were running for POTUS on the Democrat ticket we'd see the same glorification, with a few creative twists of the knife (so to speak).
the inevitable?
October 2, 2008 - 17:49 ET by ZuccoZoidNot too long ago (in a political galaxy far far away) it was Hillary Clinton being pitched and promoted as the Inevitable: SHE would be POTUS, don't bother voting, it's a done deal - until the MSM decided Racism was a better deal. The obvious point here is the MSM ALWAYS PROMOTES THE DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE, no matter who that may be. If OJ Simpson were running for POTUS on the Democrat ticket we'd see the same glorification, with a few creative twists of the knife (so to speak).
polls
October 3, 2008 - 03:39 ET by scotthOf all the polls that break down the affiliation of who was polled, they all lean towards having more Democrats.
Even Fox News:
Democrats n=369, ±5 percentage points; Republicans n=306, ±6 percentage points;
independents n=188, ±7 percentage points
CBS/NYTs in the worst:
Total Republicans 276
Total Democrats 347
Total Independents 313
Polls
October 3, 2008 - 17:59 ET by DoktorFrankenPolls lie. Pollsters lie. Poll-takers lie. The media that distributes the results of the polls lie. People that talk about the polls lie.
What was that about polls again?
Re; The incredible GREAT job being done by todays media
October 4, 2008 - 22:33 ET by BearoneHello,
If there are still people out in America that think that the media of today are doing a "GOOD" job at covering this yrs. election well then I have a bridge that I will personally like to sell you at a cheap price, and it even comes with all the trimmings, and it will be available come less say any day now. Now this bridge is located in Nev. and it runs right past Sen. Harry Reids house, and it is the BRIDGE TO NO-WHERE, AND EVERYBODY THOUGHT THAT IT WAS IN ALASKA. HE FOOLED YOU RIGHT? HE HAD IT BUILT IN HIS BACKYARD, AND THE REASON FOR THAT WAS SO HE COULD GET TO WORK SOONER, AND MAKE A QUICK GET AWAY WHEN THINGS STARTED TO GET A LITTLE BIT CRAZY AT HOME WITH HIS BOSS-LADY, YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN. NOW ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS FIND A WAY TO GET IT TO YOUR HOME, AND EVERYTHING WILL BE ALLRIGHT. JUST TAKE DELIVERY AT ONCE, AND WE WILL EVEN THROW IN SET-UP FOR NO EXTRA CHARGE AT ALL. Try and understand I am being funny, but todays MEDIA-SNOBS are not, they are so heavily in the tank for Barry O' it is making me sick to my stomach, and I am going to be so, so, glad when the election is over. May God have Mercy on this GREAT nation if after it is all said, and done that the honorable Sen. John McCain is the winner then there will be all kind of media problems, and we will not hear the end to it, and as it goes now we are in for a bumpy next few weeks.
God Bless for now,
Larry D. Crumbley
bearone7777@yahoo.com