In case traditional news outlets "forget" to tell you, Uncle Sam announced this morning that second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised sharply upward to 3.3% from the late July's advance estimate of 1.9%.
Dude, where's my recession?
Y'know, the recession that Barack Obama claimed we "almost certainly in" back in mid-July?
Believe it or not, there are supposedly legitimate economists out there who, despite today's news, still insist that we are in a recession -- right now! -- and have been for some time. And of course, reporters are finding them, and quoting them.
Earlier this week, when it was clear that a significant upward GDP revision was in the works, "journalists" at MarketWatch and CNNMoney.com, with the help of their "experts," did everything they could to downplay its impending significance. One even called it a "mirage."
On Sunday, MarketWatch's Rex Nutting took his shots. Based on previous posts on his work, and past direct correspondence yours truly has had with him, Mr. Nutting seems to be a guy who would have a hard time finding the sun on a cloudless day.
Here is some of his dismal dirge:
Big revision in GDP won't mean much
Housing, consumer spending expected to weaken furtherThe economic optimists will get a cheer from some of the economic data in the coming week, but on the whole, the data should point to an economy that's still mighty troubled.
..... GDP growth is likely to be revised up to 2.7% annual growth from an estimate of 1.9%, according to our weekly survey of economists.
Growth that strong would normally be greeted with hosannas, but this one should come with an asterisk. The growth is mostly outside the United States, not in it.
The upward revision will be almost entirely due to stronger exports (in part due to a weaker dollar) and to much weaker imports. Net exports are contributing more to U.S. growth than at any time in nearly three decades.
Meanwhile, domestic demand is very weak and likely to get weaker in coming quarters.
..... With no more federal stimulus on the way, personal consumption should increasingly reflect the weak fundamentals," wrote Meny Grauman of CIBC. Third-quarter spending "is looking increasingly grim."
Predictions that consumer spending will tank have been made, and generally not materialized, for at least the past four years.
Nutting does point to housing as a legitimate concern. But that sector has been in the doldrums for at least a year, and the economy grew nicely in the second quarter in spite of its continued troubles.
Chris Isidore at CNNMoney.com updated his report for today's GDP announcement, but, with the help of some stunning statements from certain economists, stuck to his "Pay no attention to that GDP report in the corner" guns (bolds are mine):
The economic growth mirage
Sure, the economy grew at a decent clip in the second quarter. But economists say the gain may be temporary and warn of tougher times ahead.
Despite all the talk about the U.S. economy falling on hard times this year, the economy grew at a more solid pace during the second quarter.
..... But that doesn't mean that the United States has avoided a recession, some economists say. In fact, there are growing concerns that weakness will extend through the rest of this year and even into 2009.
"My feeling is that the recession started in the fourth quarter of 2007," said David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's. "I think the worst quarter will be the first quarter of 2009, which would make it a long recession."
..... "Mostly what this report will say is, when you give somebody an $1,800 check, he spends it," said Wyss, referring to the tax rebate received by many families.
..... several economists say they are certain the United States is in recession, and that no one should be fooled into thinking otherwise by a strong second-quarter GDP report.
That's because it will be hard for the economy to rebound until the housing, banks and credit markets start to recover from the upheaval of the past year.
Here we have claims by economists that we can be in the third quarter of a recession while growth is registering over 3%! What in the world are these guys putting into their coffee? (I know, Democratic kool-aid.)
Both Nutting and Isidore failed to mention the two arguably biggest economic challenges we face, both of them originating from the left: The Pelosi-Obama-Reid Economy's hammerlock on sensible energy policy, and current consumer spending restraint tied to the likelihood of punishing tax increases if there is an Obama victory in November.
Oh, and as to the jobs situation: With 1.3 million illegal immigrants having left the country in the past year, maybe the "mirage" is in the employment numbers. This year's seasonally adjusted jobs loss of 450,000 may reflect 750,000 or so illegal workers leaving -- and 300,000 citizen workers taking their place.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters




















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Comments Policy
New corollary to the old liberal meme....
August 28, 2008 - 11:10 ET by c5thenNever let the story of a perfectly good recession be derailed by factual economic good news. Especially in an election year.
They started out with
It's Iraq, stupid
Then
It's the war, stupid
Then back to
It's the economy, stupid
I guess they are left with
"It's the old white guy, stupid".
The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Alan Keyes '08.
"It's the old white guy, stupid".
August 28, 2008 - 11:15 ET by mbuelThey are pretty much left with nothing.
What they are left with is a young radical who is running with an old white radical. Middle america doesn't like the taste of either.
Probable MSM
August 28, 2008 - 12:20 ET by motherbeltProbable MSM headline:
GDP Increases, Despite Recession
The old definition of a
August 28, 2008 - 11:24 ET by Kingfish17The old definition of a recession was: "Two consectutive quarters of negative GDP growth".
The new, MSM defintion of a recession is: "The four quarters of a Republican administration preceding a general election".
Spot on, Kf.
August 28, 2008 - 11:45 ET by MassConservSpot on, Kf.
i'll say it again...
August 28, 2008 - 13:07 ET by johnGthe two quarters of negative gdp growth is A definition, not THE definiton.
The NBER(the group that actually determines if there is a recession) does not follow the "2 quarters" definition.
So it is possible to have a recession despite positive gdp numbers...so we're not really out of the woods yet.
One guy's opinion .....
August 28, 2008 - 14:02 ET by Tom Blumer..... the NBER is full of baloney.
If they DARE try to claim that a recession occurred with the following four quarterly growth performances ....
3Q07, +4.8%
4Q07, -0.2%
1Q08, +0.9%
2Q08, +3.3% (pending one more revision)
.... they should be sent packing.
BTW, I think we're the only country in the world that tries to redefine what a recession is and leave it to something other than an objective measurement. If I'm wrong, someone needs to tell me who does.
some more stats from the gov
August 28, 2008 - 14:10 ET by mbuelFor the past ten years sorted from lowest second quarter growth to highest:
2001
1.2
2005
2.6
1998
2.7
2002
2.7
2006
2.7
2008
3.3
1999
3.4
2003
3.5
2004
3.5
2007
4.8
2000
6.4
2008 is smack dab in the middle of second quarter growth numbers.
These GDP numbers reflect a
August 28, 2008 - 15:26 ET by Kingfish17These GDP numbers, (4thQ 07 and 1stQ 08), reflect a "Soft-Landing" and not a recession. The Federal Reserve always says they are shooting for a soft-landing but they can very rarely pull it off.
Maybe this time will be the exception.
exactly...one guy's opinion
August 28, 2008 - 15:26 ET by johnGsome blogger doesn't agree with the NBER's timing, so what? the NBER consists of economists from all over the country and often from multiple top universities. if you're going to discredit their work, you might as well throw the entire field of economics out the window.
and i'm not saying we're in a recession, but everyone at NB is so caught up in the "2 quarters" def'n i try to remind everyone that's not necessarily how the decision is made.
i'm not well versed enough in ex-US recession policy to answer your question. but i'll send a few emails and see what i can find.
It should be NO GUYS' opinion
August 28, 2008 - 16:10 ET by Tom BlumerIt should be an objective measurement.
Have you come up with that example of another country yet?
Of course we can have a
August 28, 2008 - 16:35 ET by Kingfish17Of course we can have a recession that doesn't technically have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We can have Q1 of -2.0% growth, followed by Q2 of +0.1 growth and then Q3 of -2.8% growth. I'd call that a recession, and so would the NBER, and I doubt if anyone here would argue with them.
My original over-simplistic standard definition of two consective quarters of negative GDP growth is merely to illustrate that we can have the MSM call almost anything a recession and the vast majority of America will believe it.
People have grown skeptical of the MSM, but the lack of understanding concerning economics still gives the MSM a lot of the old clout they had back in their news monopoly day. (No definitions of monopolies please!)
I suppose
August 28, 2008 - 14:04 ET by mbuelIt really depends on how you define "is".
Re-defining something is meaningless because then nothing has meaning. Just something to think about John
WOW a bill clinton reference...sooo clever!
August 28, 2008 - 15:37 ET by johnGnothing is being redefined here. the NBER was established almost 70 or so years ago. nothing has changed recently to portray any administration poorly, you can talk about the media's interpretation but the economics behind it all haven't changed.
i've posted here before that no one can assign credit or blame to an administration for the economy. there are many factors and often policies have too long a time horizon for true results to be seen within 4 or 8 years of an administration.
the economy right now isn't doing that great, are we in a recession? i don't know. but remember this is america, we're the greatest country in the world...i think we can weather the storm.
johng
August 28, 2008 - 15:40 ET by Cool ArrowSo FDR had nothing to do with the Depression lasting much longer in America than the rest of the world?
Nice to know.
Torches & Pitchforks
two things
August 28, 2008 - 16:21 ET by mbuel1) this is the greatest country in the world
2) look at the 2nd quarter numbers I posted above. We are doing AVERAGE right now, which in my book is great. It's better for the economy to grow at the pace it is right now, than the 6.4% it did in 2000 during the tech bubble.
And I do blame (like the other poster) FDR for extending the recession in the states. There's no two ways around that.
Apparently years of lying
August 28, 2008 - 11:41 ET by mattmApparently years of lying and believing in lies can cause dementia.
Only a person with severe mental issues could believe a +3 GDP growth rate equals a recession.
One more reason
August 28, 2008 - 12:18 ET by LionKingAs if it was necessary, but the DEMONcrats and especially BHO, prove that they HATE America. They keep promoting their negative spin on the economy and the War on Terrorism.
This GREAT News is just ONE more reason not to trust LIEberals!!!
They have to call it a recession.
August 28, 2008 - 12:32 ET by ElyasHow else could they explain the massive layoffs and stocks crumbling in the MSM?
Thomas Jefferson once said, 'We should never judge a president by his age, only by his works.' And ever since he told me that, I stopped worrying. - Ronald Reagan
Reuters Take on economic growth
August 28, 2008 - 14:05 ET by hgabrahamsonFair and Balanced liberal scum media. After noting the great growth last quarter, in the first paragraph..it got predicatably ugly...
“GDP grew at a sluggish 0.9 percent rate in the first quarter after a 0.2 percent contraction …The fourth quarter of last year was the weakest since July-September 2001, when the economy was in recession. ….Many analysts believe that exports and consumer spending, which have helped the economy skirt recession, are likely to taper off ……the severe housing slump continues to weigh on the economy…..inventories dipped….a possible sign that businesses are less pessimistic than believed.”
Difference of Opinion is what makes a Horse Race