AP, As Usual, Botches Its Monthly Report on the US Deficit

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Last month, it was the Associated Press's Jeannine Aversa's turn to mishandle the reporting on Uncle Sam's Monthly Treasury Statement on the government's receipts, spending, and deficit.

Aversa's usual specialty is hallucinating over "blizzards of pink slips" and "jobs vanishing into thin air" when she does her "report," aka her downbeat propaganda piece, on the government's monthly jobs release.

In covering June's Monthly Treasury Statement, Aversa selectively rounded the data she presented (covered at NewsBusters; at BizzyBlog) to make receipts look less impressive and to minimize the true extent of the government's current year spending spree.

To cover July's Monthly Treasury Statement, the AP brought in Martin Crutsinger, who once again botched the report in his own unique way (saved at host for future reference).

Crutsinger actually did pretty well through most of the report, but he blew it up in its final two paragraphs, which are also the final two paragraphs in the following excerpt (bolds are mine):

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The federal budget deficit soared in July, pushed higher by economic stimulus payments and $15 billion in outlays to protect depositors at failed banks.

The Treasury Department reported that the deficit for July totaled $102.8 billion, nearly triple the $36.4 billion deficit recorded in July 2007.

The deficit outstripped the $97 billion gap that Wall Street economists had been expecting for July.

..... So far this year, the budget deficit totals $371.4 billion, more than double last year's deficit through the same time period of $157.4 billion.

..... Through July, government revenues total $2.094 trillion, down 1 percent from the same period a year ago. Revenues have been weaker this year, reflecting the sharp slowdown in the overall economy.

Government spending so far this budget year totals $2.466 trillion, 8.5 percent higher than a year ago. That's in part due to the $168 billion stimulus package Congress passed at the beginning of the year in an effort to keep the country out of a deep recession and because of increased spending for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The points Crutsinger attempted to make in his final two paragraphs are directly contradicted by the year-to-date data in this graphic:

UncleSamTreasStmtSumm0708

As to receipts, Uncle Sam considers the fiscal stimulus payments to be "negative receipts." If it weren't for those payments, as you can see in the red box, reported year-to-date receipts would be 3.4% higher. Since receipts from all other sources are up by only 1% or so less than the rate of inflation, Crutsinger's contention that their reported decline reflects "the sharp slowdown in the overall economy" is demonstrably false. It's ALL because of the stimulus payments, Martin.

Crutsinger then compounds his error in discussing outlays. In a way, it would be nice if the ridiculous 8.5% increase in spending seen in the orange box was partially due to "the $168 billion stimulus package Congress passed at the beginning of the year." But that stimulus package has absolutely nothing to do with that increase. As you can see, the stimulus payments of over $92 billion, which are a large part of Crutsinger's $168 billion, are considered "negative receipts." They aren't part of "outlays." The rest of the stimulus package consisted of tax breaks given to businesses, predominantly for purchasing new equipment. To they extent they are reflected in current year results, they will reduce receipts, as businesses that indeed invest in capital equipement will be able to make lower estimated payments throughout the remainder of the calendar year.

Crutsinger's partial explanation for the $192 billion increase in year-to-date spending (over $56 billion of it in July alone) has everything to do with ongoing government spending. His allusion to avoiding a "deep recession" is farcical. We're nowhere near a recession. His reference to "increased spending for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan" can probably also be disproven, given that a substantial portion of the surge's ramp-up occurred in fiscal 2007. But I'll defer looking into that, because poor Martin has been sufficiently flogged already, and his reporting, as usual, thoroughly discredited.

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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Excellent breakdown, Tom

These and similar economic analyses should be summarized on 3 x 5 cards to be distributed to blabbermouths on the Left who slam the Bush tax cuts and offer other bogus arguments.  Themes like:

  • "Government Revenues Rose Under Bush"
  • "Deficits Shrank Under Bush Following 9/11 and the Clinton/Gore Recession"
  • "National Debt as a Percentage of GDP is Comparable to the 1990s and Similar to or Lower Than Other G-7 Countries"
  • "Big Oil's Profits are Lower than Microsoft's and Apple's"

The list could go on and on.

You must mean the BUSH recession.

All 32 Clinton quarters had positive GDP.

I know how to win wars!

please Biff

Nevermind. I had the beginnings of a comprehensive comeback but then thought better of it.

You're going to believe whatever you want.

candance

The RNC wants to redefine recession to make the Bush recession, the
Clinton recession, which never happened. They says things like "most
experts agree the slowdown in GDP growth happened under Clinton." But a
slowdown in GDP growth is not how a recession is defined, it's two
negative growth quarters. Clinton adm was 32/32 in positive growth
quarters.

If it was a slowdown in growth, we'd be in the 10th Bush recession.

I know how to win wars!

No the RNC has not called anything a Recession

only the libs and the Dems have spread that lie.

Biffy the Socialist

The economy is NOT the President's job, my little Socialist.  Clinton NEVER hired me,nor did he EVER feed, clothe, and shelter me.

Get off your lazy ass, get a job, an provide for your own damn self, instead of begging the government to pamper, coddle, and spoil you and provide for YOUR well-being. 

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing gt thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for themedal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

more!

Actually, I seriously doubt you have the first clue about how to win a war, ANY war.  I know how.  But it will make you projectile vomit and leave you extremely squeamish. 

About the one thing you do know well is how to be a Ward of the State, and you are beside yourself with rage at why everyone else doesn't want to join you.   

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Biff...

I do not harshly criticize Clinton's stewardship of the economy.  Maybe it was a little gratuitous to throw in the reference to the Clinton/Gore recession, although I believe it's true that the revised GDP figures were low or negative at the end of 2000 and into 2001.  And then we had the post-911 slump.  The tech meltdown also started in 2000.  The point is that there is gross exaggeration of economic woes under Bush, especially vis-a-vis tax cuts.  Rather than stunted government revenues, this decade's real problem is runaway government spending (and, yes, I know the republicans were in charge for much of that period....but the democrats have picked up the baton and continued the spending race with gusto).

Biff - you're wrong, and you don't understand.

Biff - you're just wrong, and you don't understand.

You can start here: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - Real Gross Domestic Product 

You can clearly see that the 3rd quarter of Clinton's last year was negative. Bush has one also in this cycle.

I think that it is rather senseless to blame presidents for these cycles. But on the other hand, I find that it is always interesting to go to the words of the leftist economists and see what they had to say about the Clinton bubbles and the effect on the economy and on the American citizen:

March, 2001 Dean Baker, of CEPR - A socialist economist loved, no adored by the MSM, Bill Moyers, etc... 

A Year After Warning of Stock Collapse, Economist Cites Political Leaders' "Negligence."

  
An economist who predicted a collapse of stock prices a year ago, when the NASDAQ composite index was near its peak, said today that "the nation's political leaders chose to ignore the stock market bubble" -- and "as a result, millions of families have seen their dreams of a secure retirement or their children's college education vanish." In a news release issued by the Institute for Public Accuracy on the afternoon of March 16, 2000 (a day when the NASDAQ closed at 4,717.39), Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research said: "The main feature of the 'new economy' is a stock market bubble of unprecedented magnitude. When the bubble bursts, the new economy will just be a bad memory. The inflated stock market has created enormous distortions in the economy, the ramifications of which will only be apparent when stock prices return to more normal levels. If the market falls 50 percent and loses $10 trillion of wealth in a correction, it's going to be very hard to avoid a recession. A lot of these dot.coms are worth a corner lemonade stand and are putting real companies out of business. What are you going to tell people who lose much of their retirement savings in their 401K when there's a downturn?" Today, Baker said: "The decline in the stock market was an entirely predictable event for anyone familiar with basic arithmetic, even if the exact timing could not be known in advance. The nation's political leaders chose to ignore the stock market bubble and instead focused their attention on distant and relatively minor problems like potential shortfalls in the Social Security trust fund in 30 or 40 years or the reappearance of budget deficits in a decade or two. As a result, millions of families have seen their dreams of a secure retirement or their children's college education vanish with the stock market bubble. The level of negligence of the nation's political leaders in ignoring the stock bubble exceeds anything since the days of Herbert Hoover." 

There you go -- the economic experts of the left confirms that the Clinton financial leadership was the worst since Herbert Hoover. 

For the record, this collapse which solidly began in late 1997, and accelerated in early 2000, resulted in approximately $1 Trillion in silly projected budget surpluses vanishing into thin air.

(;~/ gary

 

Biffy needs to be fed

Casting pearls before swine, I'm afraid.  It's fairly obvious that Biff would much rather hug the leg of a Leftist like Obama or Clinton(either) crying "FEED ME!!!!!" the entire time.   

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Unsane,

Like the tagline. So far, so good. Basketball should go our way, and I would expect us to get more than a few golds in track and field.

"This
liberal would be all about socialize -- uh, uh, would be about
basically taking over and the government running all of your companies."-Maxine Waters 2008

small confession

I must confess to getting sucked into following Michael Phelps. That guy is ridiculous. He breaks world records just by showing up.

Candance...he's an All American Boy!

Just because....he breaks the records by showing up!

I am having a blast watching these Olympics....even the odd stuff like archery and the river kayaking.

It's all good. 

David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive

 

→ Women's Gymnastics

S ome of the sloppiest Women's Gymnastics I've ever seen in Olympic competition.

I miss the Russians, The Chinese won by default, and the Americans were, well, unimpressive.

I ♣ my seal

Subjective competitions suck

Bah!  Summer or Winter Olympics, I cannot stand subjective competitions.

What Olympic competitions do I like?  Anything that involves cold objectivity: racing a clock or outscoring your opponent.  Judges are pliable and capricious.  The scoreboard is the scoreboard.  And it is fun to see people sweat out a performance, like a sprint, to an audience that ticks on the wall (h/t to Dream Theater).   

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

CABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Going through Olympic withdrawals!  Must...get...cable!!!

(I am mentally readying a response for when...not if, WHEN, the United States wins the medal count in the Olympics.) 

Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Unsane

Rabbit ears ought to be sufficient to pick up the nbc affiliate in your area.

What gives?

I ♣ my seal

Stowed!

The damn things are PACKED!!!  (In the midst of a move...)

(As is my silverware.  My eating here is NOT pretty these days...) 

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

→ Silverware?

We don't need no stinking silverware.

I ♣ my seal

Au

Is Michael Phelps middle name "Aurum"? 

Because he now has 11!!!! 

The Olympics are now under way in Beijing.  May the people of Beijing get thoroughly sick of hearing The Star Spangled Banner.  May the Beijing Olympic Committee run out of U.S. flags for the medal ceremonies!  USA!  USA!!  USA!!!

Great info Gary as always

I hadn't heard that Herbert Hoover comparison before - too funny. That's what the partisan Dems say about Bush now, but I don't hear that even now from their economists.

The data is as clear as day but it matters little to Dems and the media. They just ignore facts and spew talking points. Normally I think they just don't understand economics, but anyone with half a brain should be able to understand the stock market bubble. The ease with which anyone's teenage brother could set up a website for a company with no assets and go public and become a millionaire meant something was wrong.

Thanks Dee. Bubbles Bubbles

Actually Sue, this bubble thing is a conversation that should, and could long have, taken place. Whether it's the dollar bubble or the dot.com bubble of greed of the 90's, or the real estate bubble of the last 8+ years, like the ones before, by the time they pop, it mostly a story of boom and bust. And it is always the little people that get clobbered - and hurt the most. However, as long as the MSM (and the Democrats) want to ignore their own bubbles, preferring to label them as great periods of prosperity, while insisting on calling bubbles during Republican administrations "evil conspiracies by the rich corporate robbers," there will be no education of the people. That's why I find the views of the far left economists, and  others, so entertaining during their own bubbles.. and during their own genocides and during their own wars.

What remains is the MSM's refusal to share any serious dissenting views with their readers and viewers - if the bottom line is that it would hurt the Democrat party politically - they are only focused on damaging the Republicans, at all costs.

The MSM did not invite Dean Baker on to trash the Clinton economy; they did not invite Jimmy Carter and Mandela on to trash Clinton over Kosovo; they did not invite Carter and the Dalai Lama on to share their heart felt views against abortion; they did not invite Samantha Power on, or Hollywood's activists to attack Clinton on why 800,000 died in a genocide in Rwanda or why just after he promised "never again," another quick 3 1/2 million died in one single civil conflict in the DR Congo (not to mention Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Angolia, or Afghanistan); they did not invite David Corn on to trash Bill Clinton on why as President he did not lead, as did President Bush on the HIV/Aids pandemic and Malaria in the 3rd World (Corn said that "it didn't poll well for Clinton). I rest. (;~> gary  

It's so sad Gary

because they don't care about real solutions it's all politics for them. As you said, it's the little guy that's always hurt the most so it doesn't affect them. It's the biggest illusion in the world that Dems care about the little guy.